Archive for Financial News – Page 212

19 Apr

RoboForex Introduces a Performance Fee Scheme for Copying Trades on Its R StocksTrader Platform

RoboForex, a leading global provider of financial services, is now enabling experienced Traders who use the CopyFX service for copy trading on its multi-asset trading platform R StocksTrader to set Performance fees on trades copied by Investors. The Performance fees paid by the Investor to the Trader are subject to profitable trades.

RoboForex launched the CopyFX copy trading service for users of the mobile version of its multi-asset trading platform R StocksTrader at the end of 2022.  At launch time, Traders could test the service, acquire their investment rating, and take their place on the list of top-rated traders. By now, CopyFX Traders, as the strategy providers, can charge performance fees from its Investors for the successful copy trading.

This novelty will allow Traders not only to make a profit on their own trades, but also receive added income in the form of Performance fee for their positions copied by Investors who are following them. It should be noted that the Investor pays the fee only if the trade turns out profitable. Read more about the Performance fee scheme in this article.

More about CopyFX services on the R StocksTrader platform

CopyFX is meant for Investors to benefit from the expertise of more experienced Traders by subscribing to the said Traders’ strategies, and thereby make a profit by copying their successful trades. Traders can, in their turn, benefit by receiving Performance fees from Investors who have used their successful strategies.

R StocksTrader clients can make use of a variety of functions:

  • Copy over 1500+ instruments, which is unique offer in the industry
  • An opportunity to copy positions of trades with the most popular instruments, including stocks, CFDs, FX, commodities, and ETFs
  • Copying is instant, and orders for the Trader and Investor are executed at the very same price
  • The same R StocksTrader account may be used for independent trading as well as for copying the positions of other Traders
  • There are no limits to the number of accounts a Trader and Investor can have

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers trading services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under the licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
19 Apr

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, PEPE, WOJ). Overview for 19.04.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC on Wednesday is balancing near 29,337 USD. By the way, the first half of the week was much better: the leading crypto rose to 30,470 USD.

Something curious is happening: the BTC lost 3% over a couple of minutes because the whole sector slumped into a deep correction. And then the situation normalised. Practically, growth perspective faced a market correction challenge. Now the BTC needs to return to 29,700-29,800 USD.

The capitalisation of the crypto market by today has dropped to 1.227 trillion USD. The BTC share rose to 46.2%, while the ETH part declined to 19.4%.

Islamic Coin will come out in May

The world’s first cryptocurrency going by Shariah norms will be the Islamic Coin, and it will appear this May. For now, only closed sales are being carried out. The global Islamic community is assessed as 1.8 billion people, which makes the coin appealing for the sector.

Meme tokens are growing

The Pepe coin rose more than 300% overnight. It got it’s name after an Internet frog. This is a curious story: five days after the coin appeared on the exchange, its capitalisation reached 115 million USD, making the coin number six meme token in the crypto market in terms of capitalisation. Another meme coin Wojak, a symbol of another social media character, grew 120%.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
19 Apr

The Bank of Japan intends to keep its monetary policy soft. In the US, the reporting season is gaining momentum

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% at Tuesday’s close of the stock market, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.04% yesterday. Concerns about interest rate hikes have returned to the markets in recent sessions as hawkish signals from Fed officials and signs of some resilience in the US economy have created uncertainty about when the Fed will suspend its rate hike cycle. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting and bring the rate to a restrictive level of 5.25%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) shares fell more than 1% after the broker reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations triggered by the sale of consumer loans at its Marcus consumer business. Bank of America (BAC) reported increases in both the top and bottom lines, driven by a 25% jump in net interest income. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected quarterly results but also noted that lawsuits indicating that its talcum powder products cause cancer persists. JNJ shares fell more than 2%. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) also reported first-quarter results that beat expectations thanks to improvements in its supply chain, sending its shares up more than 2%. Netflix Inc (NFLX) posted a weak report. The company added fewer new customers than expected in the first quarter and delivered below analysts’ estimates for the next three months. Netflix shares initially fell by 11% in after-hours trading after the report was released but then quickly recovered.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.59%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.47%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.41%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Tuesday up by 0.38%.

UK labor market data came out mixed. Estimated vacancies fell by 47,000 in the last quarter. The average pay index came out better than forecasts, but jobless claims rose by 28.2k with an expected 2.5k decline. The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.8%. Money market pricing in the May meeting now suggests an 83% probability of a 25 bps interest rate hike by the Bank of England. If today’s UK inflation figures do not show a slowdown, the Bank of England is likely to remain firm on another rate hike.

US oil inventories declined by 2.7 mln barrels last week. Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as upbeat oil consumption data from China (the biggest importer) offset concerns that a possible interest rate hike in the US could slow growth.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.63%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.26%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday negative by 0.29%. Rising interest rates are unfavorable for Asian indices as higher yields undermine the attractiveness of high-risk assets and also limit foreign capital inflows into the region.

Japan’s major manufacturers remain pessimistic for the fourth consecutive month as concerns over Western banks have exacerbated the slowdown in global growth, dampening prospects for an export-driven recovery. A Tankan survey showed that the economy is on track to recover from the coronavirus, supported by service sector companies, although the slowdown has hit manufacturers in global demand.

Japan will continue on course to meet the central bank’s 2% inflation target by continuing to ease monetary policy, even though it may take time, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday, outlining his stance on maintaining soft conditions.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,154.87 +3.55 (+0.086%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,976.63 −10.55 (−0.031%)

DAX (DE40) 15,882.67 +93.14 (+0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,909.44 +29.93 (+0.38%)

USD Index 101.74 -0.37 -0.36%

Important events for today:
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Apr

Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?)

Was 2022 an aberration for the 60/40 allocation?

By Elliott Wave International

Many financial advisors steer clients who are willing to take some risk toward a 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio.

Alas, investors who followed that strategy in 2022 saw the value of their portfolios decrease substantially.

In November, The Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major financial and cultural trends, said:

Our long term bearish stance on stocks and bonds for 2022 is certainly panning out. In mid-October, [this] headline and chart, from Bank of America, made the rounds in the media:

The bond market was a big contributor to investors’ losses. The September 2020 issue of EWT depicted a 78-year cycle in 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields and concluded that after 39 years of rise and 39 years of fall, interest rates had just registered a historic bottom.

Since then, as you know, interest rates have risen substantially, which means bond prices have fallen.

Even today, many clients of financial advisors are still fuming (Marketwatch, April 4):

Investors are mad as hell at advisers …
With the S&P 500 down 18% in 2022 and bonds off, too, investor sentiment toward full-service investment firms dropped significantly from last year

Yet, there are some who suggest the 60/40 allocation is still worth considering, along with perhaps a few tweaks (Forbes, March 9):

The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead; It’s Just Not Well-Balanced

As I write, the 60/40 strategy has performed better so far in 2023, but the remainder of the year is another matter.

Elliott wave analysis can be useful in helping you get a handle on what the remainder of 2023 holds for stocks and bonds.

If you’d like to learn how the Elliott wave method can help you analyze financial markets, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street best seller, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

[R.N.] Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.

… Elliott did not specifically say that there is only one overriding form, the “five-wave” pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it.

Here’s some good news: You can read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community (approximately 500,000 worldwide members).

A Club EWI membership is also free and allows for complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources (videos and articles) on investing and trading.

Join Club EWI now by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Financial Advisors Take Heat for Market Losses (Will Anger Intensify?). EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
18 Apr

Markets Digest China Data; Focus Remains On Earnings

By ForexTime

Asian shares finished mixed on Tuesday, shrugging off the initial boost from China’s better-than-expected Q1 GDP as signs of an uneven recovery stalled risk taking. The world’s second largest economy smashed forecasts by expanding 4.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. However, the disappointing readings on industrial production suggested that weakness still lingered in the economy, even as retail sales surged. European markets edged higher despite the caution from Asia as investors focused on the global economic outlook and corporate earnings. Wall Street could be injected with fresh volatility this afternoon, especially when considering the slate of earnings from big banks and companies.

The British pound has appreciated against most G10 currencies this morning after data showed wages rose more than expected in February. This development has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates in May, with traders currently pricing in a 90% probability of a 25-basis point hike.  Sterling is currently up 0.5% against the dollar today with prices pressing against 1.2445 weekly resistance. A break above this point could encourage a move back towards the 1.2500 region.

What next for the dollar?

Shifting expectations around future Fed policy tightening continue to heavily influence the dollar.

Expectations for a 25-basis point rate rise in May have risen to 86%, but the greenback has weakened against most G10 currencies this month with Fed official’s speeches and key US economic data this week impacting its short to medium-term outlook.

On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that he wanted to see more evidence that inflation was easing back to the Fed’s goal of 2%. The rest of the week is filled with a host of Fed speeches from policymakers who will give their final guidance in the run-up to the blackout period and the next FOMC meeting. This “Fedspeak” will be the main focus for markets, although it may be wise to also keep an eye on the US weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday and US PMI figures for April which are released on Friday.

Taking a technical look at the Dollar Index, prices remain in a bearish trend on the daily charts. Sustained weakness below 102.00 could result in a selloff back towards 100.79 and 100.00, a level not seen since April 2022.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

The euro brushed off darkening investor sentiment in Germany’s economy in April amid fears over the banking sector and high inflation. The ZEW business survey expectations reading declined for a second month to 4.1 in April from 13 in March and well below market estimates of 15.3. But the current conditions did see a marked improvement, hitting the highest level since June last year. 

The euro is being supported by ECB rate hike expectations with markets pricing in a 25bp hike in May and two more similar size moves at the June and July meetings. Given how inflation remains well above the ECB’s target of 2%, hawks remain behind the wheel and this should keep euro bulls in a position of power.

Looking at the technical picture, EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with prices again approaching 1.1000. A strong daily close above this point could encourage a move back toward the recent high at 1.1075. Should 1.1000 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may slip towards 1.0900.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold

Gold is attempting to nurse the deep wounds inflicted by the recent selloff that saw prices fall more than 2% in two days. Renewed expectations around the Fed extending its rate hike cycle deeper into 2023 hammered zero-yielding gold, with prices flirting around the psychological $2000 level as of writing. This could be another volatile week for the precious metal due to more speeches from Fed officials.

Focusing on the technical picture, last Friday’s heavily bearish daily could shift the balance of power in favour of the sellers. Sustained weakness below $2000 may open a path back towards $1950 and $1900 respectively. If bulls are able to close back above $2000, gold could see $2025 and $2048.50.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Apr

Rising US government bond yields put negative pressure on stock indices

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.33%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.28% yesterday. But despite the gains in the indices, sentiment for growth sectors, including technology, was dampened by a jump in Treasury yields amid growing fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Shares in Charles Schwab (SCHW) rose by almost 4% after the publication of mixed first-quarter results. The company’s profit beat economists’ expectations, but revenue fell short of forecasts. The brokerage also reported a drop in deposits and said it was suspending its share buyback program. Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell by 2% on reports that Samsung can abandon Google search in favor of Microsoft’s Bing (MSFT) as the default search engine on its devices, threatening around $3 billion in annual revenues. Apple (AAPL) has announced that it will open a savings account for Apple Card users.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.11%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.28%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.17%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Monday with a 0.10% gain.

ECB head Christine Lagarde warned yesterday that changes in the global economy caused by geopolitics pose a challenge to the European Central Bank and its colleagues. A key finding of leading democracies is that there is a need for greater “resilience” in supply chains – so that they are better insulated from risks ranging from war and pandemics to attempts at coercion by authoritarian regimes.

Oil prices were down by 2% yesterday. The US dollar is strengthening along with rising government bond yields, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders are betting that the Fed will raise its lending rate by another quarter percentage point in May and have pushed back expectations of a rate cut until later this year, as it usually does during a slowdown in economic growth. The IEA also warned in its monthly report that production cuts announced by OPEC+ producers could exacerbate the oil supply shortfall expected in the second half of this year and could hurt consumers and the global economic recovery.

Asian markets mostly rallied yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 1.68%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) fell by 0.68%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.27% by Monday’s end. According to analysts, the prospect of higher interest rates from the US does not bode well for Asian markets, given that it limits the amount of foreign liquidity flowing into the region. But given that most Asian central banks have suspended their respective rate hike cycles, Asian indices could find some support in the short term.

China’s economy grew by 4.5% in the latest quarter, helped largely by the lifting of restrictions against COVID. But other economic indicators were mixed. Industrial production in March was worse than forecast for the second month in a row, indicating that the country’s manufacturing sector is still recovering and has not gained momentum. Nevertheless, strong retail sales data showed that China’s consumption-driven economic recovery is largely on track, which is likely to benefit the country’s exporters in the near term.

The RBA’s March monetary policy minutes showed strong reasons to pause and reassess the need for tightening at future meetings. The board had considered a rate hike in April before deciding to pause. But as inflation remains high, further assessment of data on inflation, jobs, consumer spending, and business conditions is needed.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,151.32 +13.68 (+0.33%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,987.18 +100.71 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 15,789.53 −17.97 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,879.51 +7.60  (+0.097%)

USD Index 102.10 +0.55 +0.54%

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China GDP (q/q) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Industrial Production (y/y) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 Apr

Trade Of The Week: Time For The SPX500_m To Breakout?

By ForexTime 

The next few days promise to be volatile for the S&P 500 thanks to fundamental and technical forces.

After bouncing within a range for the past two weeks, the index could be waiting for a fresh catalyst to trigger a major bullish or bearish breakout.

Taking a brief look at the technical picture, prices remain in an uptrend despite the period of consolidation with support at 4070 and resistance at 4160. Although the index is trading comfortably above the 50,100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are flirting near overbought conditions.

Here are 3 reasons why the SPX500_m could breakout this week…

  1. US earnings season kicks off

It’s that time of the year again!

First quarter earnings season kicked off last week, led by banking giants JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup who all comfortably beat expectations for earnings. Given the recent chaos revolving around the banking sector, these results were certainly a welcome development. Nevertheless, fears about a US recession still loom. This could encourage investors to closely scrutinize pending results from the likes of Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America among many others this week. When factoring in how financial stocks account for nearly 13% of the S&P 500, their results are likely to trigger volatility.

This week also see’s the release of Tesla’s Q1 results which are expected to show a decline in earnings due to aggressive price cuts. When considering how Tesla is within the top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 and accounts for roughly 1.43% of the total index, its results could spark some action.

Ultimately, if the earnings impress and boost risk sentiment, this may inspire bulls to breakout above the 4160 resistances. However, a set of disappointing earnings could see the S&P500 slip back towards 4070.

  1. Key US economic data and Fed speeches

There are some key US economic releases and Fed speeches that could influence the S&P 500 this week.

On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will be under the spotlight after stating last week that policymakers still have a long way to go to tame prices. Later in the week, there will be a host of Fed speeches from other policymakers which may influence the S&P 500.

All eyes will be on the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday. If the Beige Book suggests that US economic conditions may be deteriorating, this may prompt the Fed to switch into lower gear on rate hikes. Alternatively, if the Beige Book reiterates its previous release by suggesting that the US economy remains resilient, this hawkish development may enforce pressure on the S&P 500. Attention will also be directed on the US weekly initial jobless claims and US PMI figures for April at the end of the week.

The SPX500_m may find itself under renewed pressure if US economic data beat expectations, the Fed Beige book suggests that the US economy remains on a firm footing and policymakers strike an overall hawkish tone. Alternatively, SPX500_m bulls could attack if US data disappoints, policymakers sound cautious and the Fed Beige book adds to the overall caution.

  1. Technicals are pointing to potential SPX500_m breakout

As highlighted earlier, the SPX500_m could be gearing for a major breakout on the daily timeframe. Although the overall trend looks to be bullish, it may take a potent fundamental spark to conquer the 4160 resistance which was last tested in February 2023. A solid breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 4200 and levels not seen since August 2022 around 4315. Alternatively, should 4160 prove to be a tough nut to crack, this may open the doors back toward 4070 and 4035 – where the 50-say SMA resides.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
17 Apr

Reports from major banks give investors optimism about the stock market

By JustMarkets 

At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42% (+1.38% for the week), while S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.21% (+1.28% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.35% on Friday (+1.24% for the week).

Short-term inflation expectations in the US jumped to a nearly two-year high at the start of April on the back of higher gas prices, but consumer sentiment did rise. These patterns show that consumers are fully aware that inflation is down from its peak, but high prices still make them feel less financially secure. Despite the minutes of the central bank’s March meeting acknowledging an increased risk of recession later this year, most investors are betting that the Fed will still raise rates by another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3rd.

The big Wall Street banks started the quarterly reporting season with better-than-expected results. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) jumped +7% after it reported first-quarter results that beat analysts’ top and bottom line estimates. Citigroup Inc (C) and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) also reported better-than-expected results. The first-quarter reporting season is heating up, and results from Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC), as well as Netflix (NFLX), Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), are expected in this week. According to Refinitiv, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall by -4.8% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

Equity markets in Europe rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE30) gained 0.50% (+2.61% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.52% on Friday (+2.61% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 index (ES35) increased by 0.33% (+0.95% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday up by 0.36% (+2.73% for the week).

ECB Governing Council spokesman Mario Centeno, who is Portugal’s central bank governor, said on Friday that a quarter-point interest rate hike is the maximum that the European Central Bank should announce at its next meeting. Beyond that, either a pause or a slowdown in the pace of increases is possible. François Villrois de Galleau from the Governing Council of the European Central Bank of France reiterated his view that the cycle of aggressive interest rate rises is coming to an end. But their comments contradict the other ECB officials who are still considering a fourth consecutive 0.5% hike to combat core inflation. The core CPI, in contrast to the overall figure, continues to rise slowly.

The dollar index jumped sharply on Friday as FOMC member Christopher Waller, one of the biggest hawks, said he wanted further monetary policy tightening, despite evidence that inflation in the United States has steadily declined from the highs of recent months. The rise in the dollar has led to a rise in government bond yields. Gold is known to have an inverse correlation to government bond yields, so there has been a collapse in the price of the yellow metal. In the short-term, gold could remain very volatile. But the medium-term outlook points to a renewed historical high.

Oil markets are rising for the fourth week in a row thanks to higher demand forecasts by the IEA global energy agency for 2023. But crude oil prices lost much of Friday’s upward momentum after Fed Chief Waller spoke out in favor of further rate hikes.

Asian markets mostly rallied last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 3.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 1.06%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.45%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) jumped by 1.68%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 1.72%.

The People’s Bank of China kept its medium-term lending rate at 2.75%, keeping monetary policy stable ahead of the key first-quarter GDP figure due to be released on Tuesday.

In the commodities market, futures on coffee (+13.17%), WTI oil (+9.26%), lumber (+9.09%), sugar (+8.45%), Brent oil (+8.44%), gasoline (+5.74%), platinum (+5.52%), silver (+5.42%), orange juice (+2.5%) and palladium (+2.45%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-4.96%) and cocoa (-1.5%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,137.64 −8.58 (−0.21%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,886.47 −143.22 (−0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 15,807.50 +78.04 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,871.91 +28.53 (+0.36%)

USD Index 101.58 +0.57 +0.56%

Important events for today:
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Wholesale Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
15 Apr

Stock Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (16,255 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (13,847 contracts), Russell-Mini (11,825 contracts), VIX (7,720 contracts), DowJones-Mini (1,979 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,165 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,874 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (-627 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,248,46919-307,6122342,01296-34,40020
Nikkei 22511,0352-2,114641,6734044134
Nasdaq-Mini237,47034-2,130747,92031-5,79043
DowJones-Mini90,26348-21,6461928,08591-6,43912
VIX360,85371-49,3667949,2521611492
Nikkei 225 Yen39,569195,9685214,54950-20,51737

 

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (79 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (64 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (2 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (18.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (44.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (37.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (21.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)

 

Nasdaq-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The S&P500-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-15 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.152.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.738.67.0
– Net Position:-49,36649,252114
– Gross Longs:76,020188,60625,538
– Gross Shorts:125,386139,35425,424
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.916.491.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-5.510.4

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -307,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.277.810.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.962.611.6
– Net Position:-307,612342,012-34,400
– Gross Longs:207,0071,749,879227,253
– Gross Shorts:514,6191,407,867261,653
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.595.719.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.223.8-7.2

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.367.312.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.336.219.8
– Net Position:-21,64628,085-6,439
– Gross Longs:17,41060,76511,475
– Gross Shorts:39,05632,68017,914
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.790.812.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.921.7-24.6

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.761.115.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.657.718.0
– Net Position:-2,1307,920-5,790
– Gross Longs:51,607144,97636,868
– Gross Shorts:53,737137,05642,658
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.831.442.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.1-21.023.1

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.683.24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.873.74.7
– Net Position:-45,13146,801-1,670
– Gross Longs:51,942408,76421,546
– Gross Shorts:97,073361,96323,216
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.956.821.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.43.0-9.7

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.249.731.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.434.527.1
– Net Position:-2,1141,673441
– Gross Longs:2,1215,4823,432
– Gross Shorts:4,2353,8092,991
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.840.433.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.6-2.36.9

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.789.02.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.386.21.1
– Net Position:-18,36011,2117,149
– Gross Longs:30,279352,14911,449
– Gross Shorts:48,639340,9384,300
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.872.652.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.15.36.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
14 Apr

Gold rises as Treasury yields fall on weakening US inflation

By JustMarkets 

The US stock indices mostly rose yesterday. At the close of trading, Dow Jones (US30) was up by 1.14%, and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.33%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.99%.

The US jobless claims rose to 239,000. This is the first increase in 3 weeks. Jobless claims in February fell to their lowest level since 2021, and labor force participation rose in March to its highest level in three years. This data indicates that the labor market is starting to weaken. The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and factories, fell by 0.5% in the last month, indicating lower inflationary pressures in the US. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on the monetary policy along with falling overall inflation. Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting showed that the Central Bank expects recent bank turmoil to trigger a “soft recession” later this year.

Today is the start of the US reporting season. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Citigroup Inc (C), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) will release quarterly results before trading opens.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rallied yesterday. By the end of the day, German DAX (DE30) gained 0.16%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.13%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.30%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positively by 0.24%.

Inflationary pressures in Germany are starting to ease. The latest data showed that consumer prices declined from 8.7% to 7.4% year-on-year. Today the inflation data will be released by France and Spain. And if there is also a decline there, the ECB may well lower the rate hike to 0.25%.

Oil prices lost some of their upward momentum after OPEC warned that a recession could hurt the oil market. In a report released on Thursday, OPEC noted the risks of lower summer oil demand amid production cuts announced this month by oil producers. The report also indicated that oil stocks look set to increase in the coming months and that global growth is facing a number of challenges.

Gold is approaching a record high. Yesterday’s session high was $2063.15, less than $16 below the historic high of nearly $2080 set by Comex Gold in August 2020. The rise in gold prices on Thursday came after the US producer price index fell to its highest in almost three years, reinforcing the notion that inflationary pressures are easing and markets expect an end to rate hikes.

Asian markets were also rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.17%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.09%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative 0.27%.

China’s exports unexpectedly rose by 14.8% y/y in March, a sharp deviation from market forecasts of a 7% contraction. This also contrasts with the downward export trend over the last five months. Imports fell slightly by 1.4% but still recorded a 15.3% year-on-year increase. The export jump pushes the trade balance up, supporting China’s GDP in the first quarter.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was the latest in a growing list of central banks to suspend future interest rate hikes. The move also came after data showed Singapore’s economy slowed more than expected in the first quarter of 2023.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he expects the global economy to recover from a period of slowdown, which will boost domestic wages, keeping the bank’s economic outlook optimistic. Investors will be focused on the first Bank of Japan policy meeting chaired by Ueda on 27-28 April, when the board will present fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts for fiscal 2025.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,146.22 +54.27 (+1.33%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,029.69 +383.19 (+1.14%)

DAX (DE40) 15,729.46 +25.86 (+0.16%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,824.84 +39.12 (+0.50%)

USD Index 101.00 −0.50 (−0.49%)

Important events for today:
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Spain Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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