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Big Tech earnings out this week – what investors are looking for

By George Prior

With Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta all reporting their earnings this week, investors around the world are switching their attention from banks to Big Tech, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green, chief executive and founder of deVere Group, come as US stock futures dropped slightly on Sunday night, and European markets are expected to open flat, as investors prepare for corporate earnings reports from mega-cap tech titans.

He says: “Many of the tech giants spent 2022 ‘cleaning house’ and getting rid of factors weighing on earnings, so we expect to see some positive reports this week.

“The earnings will highlight which companies have been able to maintain margin. In this environment of higher rates for longer than had previously been anticipated, some companies have found it difficult to maintain margin, others have done well.

“But due to the difficult work done last year, Big Tech is likely to provide some decent earnings.”

There are three main factors that investors will be looking for, says Nigel Green.

“Guidance will be critical as indicators show the economy is headed for a downturn and investors will be eager to know which companies are best-positioned to manage this. Guidance helps evaluate a company’s past performance in light of its future prospects.

“Cost-cutting measures and their efficacy will be poured over too. Have the recent mass lay-offs, following the mass hiring spree during and post Covid had an impact on the bottom line?”

“Plus, the AI (artificial intelligence) race will be closely monitored by investors.”

Only two months after its launch in late November, ChatGPT had 100 million monthly active users in January. To put this into context, it took Instagram two and a half years to get to 100 million.

“Therefore, the pressure is on for all tech titans to ramp up their AI divisions.”

This week is a big week and the halfway point in earnings season.

The deVere CEO concludes: “Just five tech companies have made up two-thirds of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Needless to say, all eyes are on Big Tech earnings this week.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Financial News Stock Market News

24 Apr

Stock indices remain under pressure from high rates

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.06% (-0.32% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.09% (-0.25% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.11% on Friday (-0.30% for the week). Stock indices remain under pressure from high rates. The US Federal Reserve is 90% likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% at its May meeting. As of April 21, 18% of companies in the S&P 500 Index reported actual results for Q1 2023, of which 63% reported actual earnings above estimates. Many important US macro statistics will be released this week, and the tech giants (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) will also report, which will be a key test for the stock market. Investors have gravitated toward tech stocks this year, believing that the Fed will soon stop raising interest rates and that the sector will remain resilient as growth slows. Reports will show if this is true.

Ray Dalio, a founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned of the risk of rising debt burdens and rising interest rates, putting the economy on the verge of a recession that will make things much more difficult in the next year or two. According to Dalio, debts will grow so much that central banks will have to buy them out.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.54% (+0.27% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.51% on Friday (+0.55% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 Index (ES35) decreased by 0.37% (+0.30% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 0.15% (+0.54% for the week).

Most ECB Governing Council officials remain concerned about the risks of rising inflation and intend to raise rates further. Concerns about the banking sector have forced the ECB to adopt a more cautious tone in its communications, but recently those concerns seem to have receded. Another rate hike at the May meeting looks like a done deal, but the size of the move remains an open question. Market pricing is leaning toward a 25 basis point rate hike. But another inflation report and GDP data will be released before the May meeting. Also, some prominent European banks are due to report earnings this week, including UBS, Deutsche Bank, Santander, and Barclays. The first quarter has been very turbulent for banks after the collapse of two regional US lenders last month and the dramatic takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS. As a result, the value of European banks fell by nearly $180 billion at one point. The sector has since recovered, but its value is still $70 billion less than before the collapse.

UK consumer confidence rose from 49 to 30. The latest report showed that investors should not expect a quick recovery in retail activity, but given other economic data (labor market, inflation, GDP, manufacturing activity), the UK economy is likely to avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. The Bank of England is preparing for another 25 basis point rate hike.

Oil prices fell about 5.5% last week, the worst five-day decline since mid-March. But analysts still believe oil prices will rebound ahead of the summer as demand rises and supply may fall short, given that crude inventories are low and OPEC+ announced a surprise cut last month amid waning global growth prospects. If WTI crude oil prices fall to $75 or below again, it could cause OPEC+ to be unhappy again. The need for oil at or above $80 is crucial to OPEC+.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.09% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.41% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 1.47% for the week, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) lost 0.05%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.42% for the week.

In 2023, China and other emerging markets in Asia saw the biggest drop in export growth due to weakening global demand. When economies reopened, trade growth began to slow. The pandemic led to a skew in consumption of goods, which has now shifted toward demand for services.

The new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will hold his first monetary policy meeting on Friday, and while analysts do not expect any changes to the central bank’s ultra-blunt monetary policy, traders should be prepared for surprises. Inflation in Japan is ahead of estimates, but Ueda’s comments in recent weeks suggest that stimulus parameters remain appropriate for now.

The G7 countries are considering an almost total ban on exports to Russia. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sunday that if the G7 decided to ban exports to Russia, Moscow would respond by canceling the Black Sea Grain deal, which allows the export of vital grain from Ukraine.

In the commodities market, futures on platinum (+8.28%), palladium (+7.06%), and natural gas (+5.01%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on gasoline futures (-8.21%), corn (-7.77%), lumber (-6.8%), WTI oil (-5.54%), Brent oil (-5.28%), soybeans (-3.57%), cotton (-3.29%) and copper (-2.97%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,133.52 +3.73 (+0.090%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,808.96 +22.34 (+0.066%)

DAX (DE40) 15,881.66 +85.69 (+0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,914.13 +11.52 (+0.15%)

USD Index 101.72 -0.12 (-0.11%)

Important events for today:

– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Wholesale Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Stock Market News

24 Apr

Trade Of The Week: USDJPY Primed For Heavy Event Week

By ForexTime

Watch this space as the USDJPY could end April with a bang!

Later this week, investors will be served a super combo of top-tier economic data combined with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision. With so much going on over the next few days, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts as volatility could be on the horizon.

It has been a rough month for the Japanese Yen. The currency was an easy target for other G10 counterparts as the BoJ continued its ultra-low interest rates as expectations grew over the Fed raising rates in May. Easing fears over a global banking crisis has also contributed to the Yen’s woes with the improving sentiment directing investors toward riskier assets.

Looking at the technicals, the USDJPY was trapped within a range last week with support at 133.70 and resistance at 135.00. Prices are trading above the 50 and 100-day SMA while the MACD trades to the upside. However, the currency pair seems to be slowly approaching overbought conditions.

The USDJPY could be gearing up for a major move and here are 3 reasons why…

Bank of Japan rate decision

The Bank of Japan’s first policy meeting under Governor Zauo Ueda will be the main risk event for the Yen on Friday.

Despite Japan’s consumer inflation holding above the central’s target, the BoJ is widely expected to maintain rates at -0.1% and keep its yield-curve control settings unchanged. Policymakers may be reluctant to act too soon given Japan’s fragile recovery and lingering uncertainty over the banking crisis overseas. However, any signal from Ueda that the central bank could turn neutral on the forward guidance could sow the seeds for tighter policy – ultimately boosting the Yen.

It will be wise to also keep a close eye on Japan’s latest CPI, Industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures which could provide fresh insight into the health of the economy. A hot inflation print coupled with strong data may fuel speculation around the BoJ pivoting down the line. Alternatively, a soft inflation report and disappointing data could strengthen the argument around extended periods of ultra-loose monetary policy.

Earnings + key US economic reports

Some of the largest companies in the world will be reporting their earnings this week which could trigger significant volatility across financial markets. If the earnings paint an overall positive picture, this could boost risk appetite at the expense of safe havens like the Yen. However, a set of disappointing earnings could rekindle risk aversion, boosting attraction for the Yen and other safe-haven destinations.

There are some major releases from the US economy ranging from the April consumer confidence data, Q1 GDP figures, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure. First quarter US GDP is expected to moderate from the 2.6% in the previous quarter while persistent price pressures may be evident in Friday’s core PCE data which should highlight why policymakers remain concerned. Ultimately, if the data supports bets around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer, this may propel the USDJPY higher.

Bulls and bears engaged in tug of war

Taking a look at the technical picture, there seems to be a tussle between bulls and bears on the daily timeframe with a potent fundamental spark needed to shift the balance of power in one direction. A solid breakout and daily close above 135.00 could encourage a move towards levels not seen since early March at 137.00 – a level where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resides. Should prices slip below 133.70, the USDJPY could decline towards 132.90 and 131.20, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (4,803 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,708 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,645 contracts) with the VIX (-14,395 contracts), Russell-Mini (-14,031 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-2,751 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,278,321	21	-344,257	0	359,830	98	-15,573	24
Nikkei 225	11,716	4	-2,556	61	1,555	40	1,001	41
Nasdaq-Mini	245,059	38	2,673	77	6,417	30	-9,090	36
DowJones-Mini	96,061	57	-24,397	11	29,345	93	-4,948	20
VIX	391,654	85	-63,761	69	65,590	28	-1,829	87
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,204	25	6,610	54	14,390	50	-21,000	36

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) and the VIX (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (61 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (69.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (73.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (36.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (21.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 Yen (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-31 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-30.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (4.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	53.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	36.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-63,761	65,590	-1,829
– Gross Longs:	79,608	210,030	25,841
– Gross Shorts:	143,369	144,440	27,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	27.5	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.0	-5.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -344,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	61.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-344,257	359,830	-15,573
– Gross Longs:	204,558	1,764,361	241,651
– Gross Shorts:	548,815	1,404,531	257,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	18.5	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	36.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-24,397	29,345	-4,948
– Gross Longs:	18,896	64,305	12,225
– Gross Shorts:	43,293	34,960	17,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	93.4	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	23.8	-0.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	60.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	57.4	18.0
– Net Position:	2,673	6,417	-9,090
– Gross Longs:	58,753	147,191	35,128
– Gross Shorts:	56,080	140,774	44,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	30.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-18.3	27.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -59,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	71.1	5.1
– Net Position:	-59,162	64,474	-5,312
– Gross Longs:	51,876	422,606	20,475
– Gross Shorts:	111,038	358,132	25,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	66.7	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.8	-33.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	48.6	33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	35.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-2,556	1,555	1,001
– Gross Longs:	2,147	5,697	3,872
– Gross Shorts:	4,703	4,142	2,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.3	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.1	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	86.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-16,652	10,731	5,921
– Gross Longs:	29,950	350,488	11,085
– Gross Shorts:	46,602	339,757	5,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	13.5	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 Apr

EU’s landmark crypto legislation will drive cryptocurrency prices

By George Prior

The EU Parliament’s passing of the Markets in Crypto Act, or MiCA, on Thursday has been hailed as a “landmark moment” for cryptocurrencies that will “help drive prices” for the likes of Bitcoin, by the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green of deVere Group, come as Stefan Berger, the MEP who led the bill’s creation, said in an emailed statement that Europe is now the “first continent with comprehensive regulation for crypto assets.”

“In order for new coins to be approved in the EU, it must be ensured in future that their business model will not endanger our currency stability,” he said. “The new supervisory structures will also be a bulwark against Lehman Brothers moments like the crypto exchange FTX.”

The MiCA legislation means that the EU will have a unified approach to crypto asset regulation across all 27 member states, meaning firms approved in one country can “passport” their operations into others.

The deVere CEO says: “This is a landmark moment for crypto. It signals the maturing of the market and underscores that cryptocurrencies are now mainstream.

“Crypto has now come of age in Europe as it is being brought into the regulatory tent and being held to the same standards as the rest of the financial system.”

Nigel Green has long-been campaigning for regulation of the cryptocurrency market since he launched deVere Crypto, a pioneering crypto exchange in 2018.

“We’ve been lobbying authorities on this issue as greater regulatory scrutiny is needed as digital currencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, are set to play an ever-greater role in the international financial system.

“We’ve been pushing for a strong regulatory framework to be established and approved at an international level.

“As such, we’re thrilled that the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, voted 517 to 38 in favour of the Markets in Crypto Act, or MiCA, as it seeks to reduce risks for consumers buying crypto assets, meaning providers can become liable if they lose investors’ crypto assets.”

He continues that with clear and consistent legislation in place, investors will have “more confidence in the market and feel more secure” in their investments.

“This will further attract more institutional investors who bring with them huge levels of capital, experience and influence, which can help increase demand and drive up prices in the long-term.”

The regulation will help reduce fraudulent activities in the market, serving to “improve the wider reputation of the industry and increase mass adoption” which will also maintain crypto prices on an upward trajectory.

The new rules are expected to be in force from next year.

The move puts the EU ahead of the US and UK, which are yet to bring in legislation for the crypto market. However, a UK official on Monday said regulation could be implemented within a year.

Nigel Green says: “The US and UK now have the opportunity to catch up with the EU on crypto regulation, which they inevitably will do – and probably sooner than many expect.

“Again, this must be welcomed as it will protect investors, tackle cryptocurrency criminality, and reduce the potential possibility of disrupting global financial stability, as well as offering a potential long-term economic boost to those jurisdictions which introduce it.”

He concludes: “Digital is the inevitable future of finance. Therefore, the proactive, forward-thinking work being done by central banks and governments, among others, in this area must be championed.”

About:

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

21 Apr

The Bank of Japan will follow a soft policy course. Most company reports missed estimates

By JustMarkets

At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.80% yesterday. Sentiment for risky assets, including stocks, worsened due to recent economic data showing further weakness in manufacturing and an increase in jobless claims. The weaker data exacerbated fears of a deeper economic slowdown at a time when the Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to raise rates further.

FOMC spokeswoman Mester indicated yesterday that she was pleased with the progress made but pointed out that inflation remains too high. In Mester’s view, interest rates should move a little further into restriction territory, and the degree of further tightening depends on economic and monetary policy assessments. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker warned Thursday that US interest rates are likely to rise further and stay that way longer, even if economic activity weakens. The current probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the next Fed meeting is 81%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock is down by 11% after the electric carmaker reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company’s margins declined because of a recent string of price cuts. Concerns about margins intensified after CEO Elon Musk announced further spending cuts to boost sales. Shares of AT&T Inc (T), a major component of the Dow Jones Index, fell more than 10% amid concerns about the company’s ability to meet its forecasts and mixed quarterly results suggesting earnings missed estimates.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.62%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.14%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.46%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Thursday up by 0.05%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the ECB would not stop fighting inflation. The March minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting indicated that policymakers have not yet decided on the size of the rate hike at the next meeting, but given the latest Eurozone inflation data, there is a high probability that the ECB will raise the rate by 0.5% in May.

The French government has outlined a plan to accelerate debt reduction, which will require the government to make unpopular spending cuts. The budget deficit will be smaller than previously forecast. But it should be noted that raising the minimum retirement age by two years has greatly reduced support for the current government and strengthened opposition parties that reject budget cuts.

Oil prices fell about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March. Fears that a possible recession could reduce demand for fuel, as well as an increase in gasoline inventories in the US, are negative factors for oil prices.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.14% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.03%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.04% on the day.

The Bank of Japan is eyeing the idea of changing its controversial bond yield control policy later this year but is likely to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting as it awaits new evidence of sustained wage growth. Kazuo Ueda will hold his first meeting as governor on April 27-28, and his appointment has heightened expectations that the bank will begin to roll back its ultra-soft settings.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,129.79 −24.73 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,786.62 −110.39 (−0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 15,795.97 −99.23 (−0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,902.61 +3.84 (+0.049%)

USD Index 101.82 −0.15 −0.15%

Important events for today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Apr

Mobilize private finance to fight rising global food insecurity: deVere CEO

By George Prior

The war between Russia and Ukraine and the impact it has on global grain exports – which feeds billions each day – highlight the urgent need for mobilizing private funding to ensure food security, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The call-to-action from deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green, comes as Citi Research reveals that Ukrainian grain harvests and exports this year could be down as much as 50% on pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, the April 2023 edition of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor shows the gradual decline over the past 10 months of global grain and oilseed prices to levels prior to the war in Ukraine.

Both Russia and Ukraine were among the top producers of grains in the world before the start of the war in February 2022.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the pandemic before it – has underscored the fragility and complexity of the world’s food supply on which billions of people live every day,” says Nigel Green.

“We expect that pressure will grow on the global food supply in the coming decade due to population growth, rising incomes in developing countries, disruption triggered by heightening geopolitical tensions, social unrest, labour shortages, soaring fertilizer costs, conflicting trade policies, and climate change.

“The current food crisis is, we believe, set to become the worst in a decade, meaning years of progress against poverty and hunger are being wiped out.”

He affirms: “We expect that over the next five years, rising food insecurity is likely to become a defining issue of our time.”

With so many variables, degrees of severity, and situations developing unexpectedly, governments alone will not be able combat the worst effects of human-triggered climate change.

“Governments are best-positioned to develop, implement and manage policy, incentives, standards, metrics and regulations. And, yes, they must also provide top-level funding,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“But due to the tens of trillions likely to be needed for structural changes to global food systems, there will remain a major funding gap if we rely solely on the public sector.”

This is especially true as governments are still stretched with the unprecedented financial fallout of the Covid pandemic, for which no country was prepared and that upended economies globally.

Therefore, says Nigel Green, it is “essential to enable, unlock and mobilize private capital as a matter of urgency.”

To do this, the deVere CEO suggests that we need “cooperation between financial advisories, insurance firms, banks, wealth and asset managers, investment companies, fintech groups, banks and auditors, amongst others, to help unlock and mobilize the trillions of dollars of private finance that is urgently required.

“Without this, the level of funds required will simply not be there.”

The World Food Programme on its website notes that, “The scale of the current global hunger and malnutrition crisis is enormous, with an expected 345.2 million people projected to be food insecure – more than double the number in 2020. This constitutes a staggering rise of 200 million people compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels… Unless the necessary resources are made available, lost lives and the reversal of hard-earned development gains will be the price to pay.”

Nigel Green concludes: “A combination of factors including war, economic upheaval and climate change means that urgent private finance inflows are essential to ensure greater levels of global food security and stability.”

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Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Apr

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.04.2023 (EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is pushing off the support level. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0945 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1165. A signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0880, which will mean further falling to 1.0785.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has secured above the upper border of the descending channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3410 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3655. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3345, which will mean further falling to 1.3255.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6705 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6835. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6670, which will mean further falling to 0.6575.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Apr

ECB, Bank of England (BoE), and Swiss National Bank (SNB) intend to keep raising interest rates

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s US stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.35%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.03% yesterday. Stock indices remain under pressure due to recession fears and rate hikes. At the same time, the reporting season so far shows no signs of confidence.

On Wednesday, Tesla (TSLA) reported first-quarter earnings below Wall Street estimates. The company’s stock was down by 2%. A drop in semiconductor stocks also hurt technology companies, as ASML Holdings (ASML) shares fell by 3% after reporting a 46% drop in first-quarter net orders as buying demand remains low. Meta Platforms Inc (META), though not reporting yesterday, saw its shares fall by 1% after the company announced a new wave of job cuts as the drive to cut costs continues.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.77%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.13% on Wednesday.

ECB spokesman Lane said yesterday that if inflation in the Eurozone remains stable, he will vote for further rate hikes. These comments coincide with other comments from ECB officials. The inflation rate in the Eurozone was unchanged compared to the previous month. The consumer price index amounted to 6.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remained at 5.7%. Such data increases the likelihood of an additional 0.5% rate hike at the next ECB meeting.

Inflation in the UK has been above 10% for the seventh month in a row. This has been an important week for the UK economy, starting with yesterday’s employment report, which confirmed the difficult situation in the labor market in the UK. Against this backdrop of the labor market and inflation data, analysts predict that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by another 25 bps next month with almost 100% probability.

The Swiss National Bank’s recent 0.5% interest rate hike is still slowing inflation to just 2% in forecasts, said Andrea Maechler from the SNB, suggesting that additional tightening may be needed. Economists now expect the SNB to give another quarter-point hike, bringing the discount rate to 1.75%.

Crude oil inventories in the United States declined last week at the fastest pace in three weeks. But that hasn’t helped oil prices, which have already lost 4% since the start of this week. There are signs of a significant weakening in global demand for fuel, along with a drop in manufacturing activity. Normally oil prices rise in the run-up to summer on the back of increased travel demand, but at the moment, this is not happening.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was 0.74% lower, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.37% by the end of the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was 0.23% lower, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was 0.07% positive by Wednesday. Asian indices continue to decline, following weakness from Wall Street, as worries about rising interest rates and slowing economic growth made traders cautious about risk-oriented assets.

The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates at 3.65%. But Chinese indices did not get much support for this decision.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,154.52 −0.35 (−0.0084%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,897.01 −79.62 (−0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 15,895.20 +12.53 (+0.079%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,898.77 −10.67 (−0.13%)

USD Index 101.95 +0.20 +0.20%

Important events for today:

– New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Williams Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
– German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Account Monetary Policy Meeting at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Apr

Dollar holds onto recent gains in quiet trade

By ForexTime

After touching the year-to-date bottom from early February at 100.82 last week, the DXY has rebounded this week. If it holds onto its gains and prints a positive, green candle, that will at least stop a run of five consecutive weeks of losses. This has come about chiefly as US Treasury bond yields have also bounced back after a few weeks of turmoil brought on by the March banking madness / crisis.

The dollar recovery which began late last week follows a jump in US inflation expectations data. CPI figures around the globe, including yesterday’s hot UK numbers, have added to the theme that core inflation will stick around at higher levels for potentially longer than many market watchers believe. For the US, the all-important bond markets are seeing bets on interest rate cuts being priced out. The Fed funds rate is now seen at 4.6% by year-end, which is the highest since the banking turmoil began. This implies money markets are pricing in only two full cuts from the Fed’s peak by then. We note that there is only roughly a 20% chance of another 25bp rate hike beyond the FOMC’s May meeting.

All of this still indicates that the upside for the greenback remains limited as the Fed tightening cycle nears the end. The DXY is still just about in its bearish, descending channel from the March top at 105.88. Prices look like they need to advance above 102.80 at a minimum to arrest the downtrend.

Other major central banks on the move

In contrast to the Fed, European central banks like the BoE, SNB and of course the ECB are seen as having more work to do to tame inflationary pressures. Strong UK data this week has rubber-stamped a 25bp rate hike at the Old Lady’s May meeting, the week after the FOMC and ECB rendezvous’. It has also seen another couple of rate rises priced in for MPC meetings into the summer. A peak UK rate of near 5% is the market bet though price action in the pound has been mixed this week. Support has been found on dips in GBP/USD with the mid-1.23s looking like solid support. But it is interesting we haven’t pushed higher towards 1.25, even with the solid data. A weekly close above the January top at 1.2447 would do nicely for the bulls.

EUR still in its uptrend

Those elevated core prices are also sustaining market bets that the ECB will lift rates in the coming months. Again if we check out bond market which have been driving the wider market price action this year, the peak rate in the eurozone is seen around 3.87%, so a strong rebound from the 3% low priced during the heat of the banking maelstrom. In fact, it’s not that far away from the early March top just above 4%.

We get more ECB speakers on the wires today though it appears that the bar for a hawkish surprise is now high ahead of that huge week of central bank meetings in early May. Similar to GBP, the rise in rate hike bets hasn’t pushed EUR/USD to its recent highs, above 1.10. But dips have been supported and prices remain in an ascending channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows since early March. A weekly close above 1.1032 is important to sustain the bull trend.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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