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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (9,014 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,055 contracts), Lean Hogs (5,402 contracts) and Cocoa (1,403 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-42,356 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,933 contracts), Cotton (-5,028 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,467 contracts), Wheat (-3,209 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,112 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,791,696	35	326,871	47	-348,713	57	21,842	24
Gold	441,221	9	123,864	32	-144,810	68	20,946	32
Silver	125,292	14	18,033	44	-32,040	55	14,007	44
Copper	196,198	39	-12,334	20	9,886	80	2,448	34
Palladium	17,838	82	-10,712	2	10,761	99	-49	39
Platinum	87,021	100	6,721	31	-12,396	68	5,675	44
Natural Gas	1,171,747	44	-112,044	27	86,523	74	25,521	41
Brent	136,160	13	-48,610	17	47,945	90	665	18
Heating Oil	334,395	50	36,922	92	-62,799	7	25,877	88
Soybeans	740,047	36	85,217	23	-68,440	73	-16,777	64
Corn	1,268,176	10	-87,988	0	118,836	100	-30,848	90
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	996,532	70	244,435	77	-297,725	19	53,290	72
Wheat	391,669	61	-49,619	32	46,521	66	3,098	82

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (77 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Cotton (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybeans (23 percent), Lean Hogs (29 percent) and Wheat (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.7 percent)
Sugar (77.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.1 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (53.1 percent)
Live Cattle (78.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.6 percent)
Cotton (47.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (31.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.8 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent), Lean Hogs (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-26.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-18.3 percent)
Sugar (11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-11.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (1.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.6 percent)
Cotton (5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -87,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -42,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	49.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	40.2	12.7
– Net Position:	-87,988	118,836	-30,848
– Gross Longs:	264,473	628,085	130,320
– Gross Shorts:	352,461	509,249	161,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	22.0	55.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 244,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	44.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	74.7	4.6
– Net Position:	244,435	-297,725	53,290
– Gross Longs:	328,566	446,542	98,865
– Gross Shorts:	84,131	744,267	45,575
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	18.8	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-15.6	24.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	49.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	58.8	9.0
– Net Position:	85,217	-68,440	-16,777
– Gross Longs:	162,761	366,434	49,882
– Gross Shorts:	77,544	434,874	66,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	73.2	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	9.3	3.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	50.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	62.9	4.5
– Net Position:	46,002	-56,338	10,336
– Gross Longs:	97,027	240,105	31,734
– Gross Shorts:	51,025	296,443	21,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	2.3	0.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	41.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	64.8	5.5
– Net Position:	88,283	-107,255	18,972
– Gross Longs:	109,513	189,177	43,929
– Gross Shorts:	21,230	296,432	24,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	49.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	11.9	0.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	28.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	52.6	13.1
– Net Position:	92,544	-77,999	-14,545
– Gross Longs:	144,383	93,333	28,157
– Gross Shorts:	51,839	171,332	42,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.7	27.4	8.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	2.3	-19.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	35.1	11.8
– Net Position:	-730	4,709	-3,979
– Gross Longs:	66,425	73,897	19,379
– Gross Shorts:	67,155	69,188	23,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	74.6	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-0.6	-12.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	42.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	69.0	3.7
– Net Position:	51,382	-60,187	8,805
– Gross Longs:	86,922	96,890	17,240
– Gross Shorts:	35,540	157,077	8,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	49.6	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.6	-4.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.1	24.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.4	3.1
– Net Position:	87,623	-91,493	3,870
– Gross Longs:	140,004	73,434	13,097
– Gross Shorts:	52,381	164,927	9,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.1	5.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	34.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	22.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-49,619	46,521	3,098
– Gross Longs:	114,277	133,152	39,447
– Gross Shorts:	163,896	86,631	36,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.1	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	11.7	34.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (27,878 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,096 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (656 contracts) and the VIX (3,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-20,113 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,494 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-1,176 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,520,164	48	-116,333	47	87,045	52	29,288	49
Nikkei 225	16,425	17	514	72	-918	30	404	33
Nasdaq-Mini	303,321	77	9,056	82	-9,508	17	452	66
DowJones-Mini	102,910	69	-12,900	37	12,437	59	463	46
VIX	418,072	81	-39,342	90	40,099	6	-757	92
Nikkei 225 Yen	46,463	29	3,889	46	6,646	29	-10,535	73

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (90 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (72 percent) and S&P500-Mini (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (43.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (37.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (40.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (82.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (85.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (72.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (19.4 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the VIX (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-33 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-41.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-37.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (11.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-32.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	46.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	36.4	6.7
– Net Position:	-39,342	40,099	-757
– Gross Longs:	104,179	192,419	27,224
– Gross Shorts:	143,521	152,320	27,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	6.2	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.0	6.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -116,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	72.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-116,333	87,045	29,288
– Gross Longs:	279,471	1,821,412	286,894
– Gross Shorts:	395,804	1,734,367	257,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	51.9	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-13.6	5.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	58.9	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	46.8	13.7
– Net Position:	-12,900	12,437	463
– Gross Longs:	22,788	60,631	14,578
– Gross Shorts:	35,688	48,194	14,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	59.1	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.0	28.2	2.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	56.6	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	59.7	14.7
– Net Position:	9,056	-9,508	452
– Gross Longs:	68,674	171,570	44,891
– Gross Shorts:	59,618	181,078	44,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.4	16.5	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-13.8	2.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	81.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	71.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-63,615	59,033	4,582
– Gross Longs:	47,088	443,198	31,308
– Gross Shorts:	110,703	384,165	26,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	63.7	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.8	1.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	68.5	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	74.1	18.1
– Net Position:	514	-918	404
– Gross Longs:	1,793	11,249	3,383
– Gross Shorts:	1,279	12,167	2,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	30.3	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-3.1	-10.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,079 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	90.3	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	78.6	1.9
– Net Position:	-58,192	54,008	4,184
– Gross Longs:	22,550	415,412	12,927
– Gross Shorts:	80,742	361,404	8,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	35.7	-13.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

15 Sep

Murrey Math Lines 15.09.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent crude oil quotes and the RSI on H4 are in their respective overbought areas. In this situation, a downward breakout of 8/8 (93.75) is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 6/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakout of +1/8 (95.31). In this case, the quotes could aim at the resistance at +2/8 (96.88).

On M15, the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so the decline might only be supported by a downward breakout of 8/8 (93.75) on H4.

S&P 500

On H4, the S&P 500 index quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. However, the RSI has already reached the overbought area. As a result, in these circumstances, a test of 4/8 (4531.2) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a decline to the support at 3/8 (4492.2). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance level of 4/8 (4453.1). In this case, the S&P 500 could continue growing and reach 5/8 (4570.3).

On M15, the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so the decline might only be supported by a rebound from 4/8 (4531.2) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Energy Financial News

15 Sep

Week Ahead: Will Fed Decision Trigger NQ100_m Breakout?

By ForexTime

Exceptional list of high-risk events next week
Our focus falls on Fed decision which could move NQ100_m
Fed expected to leave rates unchanged
Much focus will be on any clues offered on future rate moves
NQ100_m breakout on horizon with 15200 and 15630 key levels of interest

The exceptional list of high-risk events and top-tier economic reports could rock global financial markets in the week ahead!

All eyes will be on the central bank mashup including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) among many others. Key economic data from the UK, Eurozone, and Japan to name a few will also be in focus:

Monday, September 18

CAD: Canada housing starts

Tuesday, September 19

CAD: Canada CPI
AUD: RBA meeting minutes
EUR: Eurozone CPI
USD: US housing starts

Wednesday, September 20

CNH: China loan prime rates
EUR: Eurozone new car registrations
JPY: Japan trade
CAD: BoC meeting minutes
GBP: UK August CPI
USD: Fed rate decision

Thursday, September 21

CHF: SNB rate decision
EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
NZD: New Zealand GDP
GBP: BoE rate decision
USD: leading index, initial jobless claims

Friday, September 22

AUD: Judo Bank Australia PMI’s
JPY: BOJ rate decision, CPI, PMI’s
CAD: Canada retail sales
EUR: Eurozone S&P Global PMI’s, Germany PMI’s
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI’s
USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

Given the jampacked economic schedule, it may be wise to fasten your seatbelts and get ready for a wild ride.

Our focus falls on the September FOMC meeting which could trigger a major move on the NQ100_m.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5% at the September 19-20 meeting. However, much focus will be on what vital clues the central bank offers on future rate hikes. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the economic projections, including the ones for interest rates known as the dot plot.

Ultimately, if Jerome Powell strikes a hawkish tone during his press conference and leaves the door open for further rates, this could boost bets around the Fed making a move before the end of 2023.

As of writing, traders have practically ruled out the possibility of a rate hike next week. However, the probability of a 25 basis point hike by November stands at 35% with this jumping to 44% by December, according to Fed funds futures.

How might the Fed decision impact the NQ100_m?

The NQ100_m index is filled with tech stocks that dislike higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings projected in the future.

The NQ100_m could find itself under fresh selling pressure if the Federal Reserve signals that one more rate hike is still on the table in 2023.
Should Jerome Powell strike a cautious tone, and the economic projections/dot plot suggests that the Fed may be done with raising rates, this could push the NQ100_m higher.

Looking at the technical picture…

The NQ100_m remains trapped within a range on the daily charts with support at 15200 and resistance at 15630. Prices seem to be riding above the 50-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. A breakout could be on the horizon, but this may require the assistance of a potent fundamental spark.

A solid daily close and breakout above 15630 may inspire a move higher toward 15800 and 15947, respectively.
Should prices sink below 15200, this could trigger a decline towards 15000 and 14670.

Zooming out, there is a larger range on the weekly charts with support at 14670 and resistance at 15840. A solid breakout and close above 15840 may inspire a move to levels not seen since January 2022 at 16500. Should prices slip below 14670, the next key level of interest can be found around 14440.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Sep

Oil is hitting new highs again. The ECB has reached its peak interest rate

By JustMarkets

On Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.00%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.81% on Thursday.

Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims rose by 3,000 to 220,000 from expectations of 5,000, indicating a stronger than expected labor market. The data boosted equities and reinforced the assumption that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the US economy. The US goods and services price index for August accelerated to 1.6% y/y from 0.8% y/y in July, the highest reading in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations of 1.3% y/y. US retail sales for August rose by 0.6% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The probability of a rate hike by the US Fed has decreased further. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 2% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 35%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.97%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.19% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.44%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 1.95%. The ECB decision contributed to the growth of European indices. Yesterday, the ECB raised the main refinancing rate by 25 bps to 4.50% from 4.25% and said the new level would make a “significant contribution” to controlling inflation. The ECB signaled its intention to maintain this rate, stating the following: “Based on the current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the ECB’s key interest rates have reached levels that, if maintained for a sufficiently long time, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to target.” In other words, the ECB hinted at the end of the tightening cycle. The ECB also lowered its 2023 eurozone GDP forecast to 0.7% from the previous forecast of 0.9% and raised its 2023 inflation forecast to 5.6% from the previous forecast of 5.4%.

Oil prices are creeping higher, raising concerns about the impact on the downward trajectory of inflation. Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, are up 15% year-to-date and are above $90 a barrel. Prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark, are up 5% for the year and have also crossed the $90 mark. Saudi Arabia and Russia recently agreed to extend voluntary oil production cuts until the end of this year, reducing the global market by 1.3 million barrels of oil and boosting energy prices. Yesterday, oil prices were supported by news from China. The Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 25 bps to 10.50% from 10.75%, which could stimulate economic growth and boost energy demand in China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

The EIA natural gas inventory report published on Thursday showed an increase of 57 bcf over the last week. This reflected negatively on prices as inventories came in above expectations at 50 bcf, although below the 5-year average for this time of year of 76 bcf. As of September 8, natural gas inventories were up 15.7% YoY and 6.8% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating a sufficient natural gas supply.

Asian markets were mostly up on Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.41% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.08%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 0.21%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday positive 0.46%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 bps to 10.50% from 10.75%. Lowering the norm frees up cash for banks, allowing them to lend more to businesses and consumers. It will also lead to more liquidity in the Chinese economy, which could boost growth.

Data released on Friday also showed that China’s industrial production and retail sales rose more than expected in August. However, fixed asset investment declined, and new home sales fell, indicating that much of Asia’s largest economy remains under pressure. Chinese stocks have suffered significant losses for the year amid growing concerns that the country’s economic recovery is much slower than initially expected.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,505.56 +38.12 (+0.85%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,921.53 +346.00 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 15,805.29 +151.26 (+0.97%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,673.08 +147.09 (+1.95%)

USD Index 105.36 +0.60 (+0.57%)

Important events for today:

– China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Sep

Investors Flock To Disruptive Mortgage Tech Stocks

Streetwise Reports (9/13/23)

As the newer generation becomes homebuyers, lenders are seeing a major push for non-traditional lending options. Read to see how Rocket Companies Inc., Loan Depot, and Beeline Loans are disrupting the industry with online applications and artificial intelligence and why they should be on investors’ radars.

Owning a home is a huge part of the American Dream and the first step for some to solidify their place in adulthood. In fact, a survey by Bankrate found that “owning a home is still very much a part of the “American Dream,” as cited by 74% of U.S. adults. This is more than those who point to being able to retire (66%), having a successful career (60%), owning a car, truck, or other automobile (50%), having children (40%), and getting a college degree (35%).”

Still, most Americans are unable to buy a house outright, making mortgages a key part of achieving this height of American success.

Rising Interest Rates

In an August 5 article, Market Watch personal finance reporter Aarthi Swaminathan pointed out that The United States is at a ‘critical stage’ regarding mortgages.

The report noted that “if the economy continues to show signs of strength, and the U.S. Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark interest rate once again, rates could go up to 8%.”

Legendary investor Barbara Corcoran told Yahoo Finance that “Now is a great time to buy a home” despite rising interest rates.

However, the article also stressed that the economy is currently hinting at a possible cool-down and that the “rate of inflation is easing.” Swaminathan wrote, “That could lead to a slowdown — or even drop — in mortgage rates.” This is not promised, but something homebuyers and investor should keep their eye on.

Still, while some people may be waiting for interest rates to go down before they start their home search, some experts believe now is actually the time to buy.

Legendary investor Barbara Corcoran spoke with Fox Business about the current state of the market. She said, “The minute those interest rates come down, all hell’s going to break loose, and the prices are going to go through the roof,” she said, commenting that we could see a Covid-like market once again.

With this in mind, Corcoran told Yahoo Finance that “Now is a great time to buy a home” despite rising interest rates.

Homebuyers Looking for a Change

As with most things, mortgages come in two categories: The old and the new. There are the long, held mortgages that have been around for generations, yet they are running into some competition as the new guys usher in a new way to play the game of life.

Some of the long-standing mortgage companies include:

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC:NYSE), which announced at the beginning of this year that it intended to scale back mortgages, but last year saw 143,000 loans at a value of US$79 billion.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC:NYSE), which saw 121,000 loans at a value of US$54 billion.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM:NYSE), which saw 115,000 loans at a value of US$73 billion, with an average loan amount of US$631,000.

While non-traditional lenders did make gains in 2021, traditional financial institutions won back some ground in 2022, yet some non-bank lenders did manage to hold on to their advantages.

Rocket Companies Inc. was the top mortgage lender in 2022, with 464,000 loans that generated a value of US$127.6 billion.

Loan Depot Inc. had 156,000 loans with a value of US$53 billion.

It seems clear from these results that homebuyers are looking for change in the market. This may be partly due to the younger crowd gaining interest in home buying. 51.5% of millennials are homeowners as of this year.

This generation increased by 7 million homeowners over the last five years, but they are still behind Gen Z, who are becoming homeowners at higher rates than millennials were at the same ages.

Gen Z and Millennial homebuyers are more likely to gravitate toward mobile and online over traditional lenders. According to Chase’s Digital Banking Attitudes Study, over 86% of Gen Z and 89% of millennials conduct their banking through apps. 61% of Gen Z and 71% of millennials use apps to transfer money. Managing money through online means is overwhelmingly popular with younger generations due to its convenience. This is where nontraditional lenders come in.

Top Mortgage Lender Rocket Mortgage

Recently, Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT:NYSE) announced financial results for Q223. In Q223, Rocket reported net revenue of US$1.236 billion and adjusted revenue of US$1.002 billion. This exceeded the high end of the company’s guidance range.

In light of this news, Rocket’s Interim CEO, Bill Emerson, said, “Rocket‘s performance in the second quarter demonstrates the strength of our business and our commitment to delivering superior client service through innovation.”

Digital Platform Makes Rocket #1

In July, Rocket ranked number one in the U.S. for Client Satisfaction in Mortgage Servicing by J.D. Power for the ninth time. According to the release, this accolade was given based entirely on client feedback from an independent research firm.

With this, Executive Vice President of Servicing at Rocket Mortgage LaQuanda Sain said, “Many homebuyers don’t think twice about who will service their mortgage when they apply for a home loan but, with a mortgage lasting as many as 30 years, their servicer can make a huge difference.”

Rocket also ranked in the following categories:

Digital Channels
Easy to do Business With
Keeps Clients Informed and Educated
Resolving Problems or Questions

A big part of this ranking was Rocket’s 24/7 online self-serve resources, which aided over 100,000 homeowners in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian.

In July, Rocket ranked number one in the U.S. for Client Satisfaction in Mortgage Servicing by J.D. Power for the ninth time. According to the release, this accolade was given based entirely on client feedback from an independent research firm.

Rocket currently has a 4.5 out of 5 on Nerd Wallet, which noted a pro of the company being a “streamlined online process with document and asset retrieval capabilities, as well as the ability to edit your preapproval letter.”

On July 18, Morningstar Equity Analyst Michael Miller gave Rocket a US$13 Fair Value Estimate, noting, “In our view, Rocket Companies has established a clear competitive advantage in its core mortgage lending operations that should allow it to continue to increase its market share while still maintaining its strong margins and returns on invested capital.”

Then, in an August 4 report, James Faucette of Morgan Stanley rated Rocket as Attractive, saying, “As elevated mortgage rates and low housing inventories continued to weigh on industry-wide Purchase and Refi activity during the quarter, RKT sharpened its focus on expense efficiencies across the company.”

Technical Analyst Clive Maund told Streetwise Reports, “Rocket Companies’ business model accords with the times, which is why its stock is starting to advance out of a large base pattern. The consolidation pattern since early mid-July, which has brought the price back to its rising 50-day moving average, has allowed the earlier overbought condition to unwind, setting it up for renewed advance. It is believed to be forming a small base here just above its 50-day moving average from which it should soon advance, but even if the support at US$10.00 fails, it shouldn’t fall far before reversing back smartly to the upside.”

13 other analysts also cover the company.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT:NYSE)

	Institutions: 73.5%
	Retail: 21.06%
	Management & Insiders: 5.44%

73.5%

21.1%

5.4%

^*Share Structure as of 8/10/2023

Source: Thomson Reuters

Rocket: Ownership and Share Structure

According to Thomson Reuters, 73.50% of the company is held by institutional investors. Fidelity Management & Research Co. has 8.84%, with 11.22 million shares. The Vangaurd Group Inc. has 8.56%, with 10.88 million. Fidelity Investments Canada ULC has 5.77%, with 7.32 million. Caledonia (Private) Investments Pty Ltd. has 4.18%, with 5.30 million. Invesco Advisors Inc. has 3.93%, with 4.99 million, and BlackRock Institutional Trust Companies 3.88%, 4.93 million.

5.44% is with management and insiders. CEO Jay Farner has 4.20%, with 5.33 million shares. Director Matthew Rizik has 0.36%, with 0.45 million. President and COO Robert Walters has 0.26%, with 0.33 million, and CFO Julie Booth has 0.17%, with 0.22 million.

The rest is with retail investors.

Market Watch notes that Rocket has a market cap of US$22.88 billion and 127 million shares outstanding. It trades in the 52-week range between US$5.97 and US$11.68.

Loan Depot

On August 6, Loan Depot Inc. (LDI:NYSE) released financial results for Q223. Revenue was up by 31% from the first quarter of this year, which the company attributes to higher pull-through weighted lock volume and gain on sale margins for the company. Loan Depot noted it “continues to maintain a strong liquidity profile, exiting the quarter with a cash balance of US$719.1 million.”

In this release, CEO Frank Martell noted, ““As we move forward in the second half of 2023, we plan to continue maintaining a strong liquidity position and aggressively reduce our costs. Importantly, we are also investing in critical operating platforms, which we expect will deliver higher levels of automation and operating leverage and position us for additional growth and margin expansion in 2024.”

Analyst John Lafferty of PriceTarget Research gave Loan Depot an A rating (the highest given by the research company). Lafferty wrote that the stock was selling well beyond its value at US$2.21, gave the company a target price of US$7, and commented, “Reflecting future returns on capital that are forecasted to be in line with the cost of capital, LDI is expected to be Value Creation neutral. loanDepot has a current Value Trend Rating of A.”

According to Reuters, 21.93% of Loan Depot shares are held by management and insiders. CIO and Head Economist Jeff DerGuarahian has 7.73%, with 6.10 million shares. President Jeff Walsh has 5.30%, with 4.24 million, and Managing Director of Operations and Servicing Dan Binowitz has 1.01%, with 0.80 million.

29.63% is with institutional investors. Cannell Capital LLC has 5.73%, with 4.52 million shares. The Vangaurd Group Inc. has 5.47%, with 4.31 million. Parthenon Capital Partners has 5.11%, with 4.03 million. Brandywine Global Investment Management has 4.49%, with 3.54 million, and Knightsbridge Wealth Management has 3.33%, with 2.63 million.

The rest is in retail.

Market Watch notes that Loan Depot has a market cap of US$639.89 million and 78.89 shares outstanding. It trades in the 52-week range between US$1.2500 and US$3.0200.

New Kid on the Block: Beeline Loans

While public non-traditional lenders have been making waves, there is a private company rising in the industry, Beeline Loans Inc.

Beeline Loans, Inc. launched a proprietary front-end mortgage platform in June 2020 and closed approximately 2,000 loans by the end of 2021. For 2024, the company expects to close about 3,000 loans. Despite the timing of their launch, which included Covid-19, the highest percentage increase in rates in 25 years, war in Ukraine, and housing inventories and consumer confidence being near all-time lows, the company has gained market share against larger legacy lenders.

“While other mortgage lenders have been slumping, Beeline is gaining traction,” wrote Guy Bennett in an article for Yahoo Finance.

Beeline is also not stuck with just one type of loan offering. The company provides FHA and VA, while also providing popular Non-QM loans such as Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), bank statements, bridge, and fix-n-flip loans.

Bennett noted that “Beeline’s mix of home investors is about 300% higher than the national average.” However, this is not the only thing that sets Beeline apart from other online mortgage companies.

Chris Connelly, a Managing Director at Ellington Financial Group (a shareholder in the company), said,” Because of their very diverse set of product offerings, younger home buyers have more options at Beeline vs. traditional mortgage lenders and a better chance to get financing for a new home.”

On April 13, 2013, Robinhood revolutionized the stock-buying industry by fractionalizing stocks. This allowed people who previously were excluded from the stock market into the industry and paved the way for younger generations to get involved. Beeline is now doing for mortgages what Robinhood did for the stock market.

Beeline stands out from the crowd because it has incorporated artificial intelligence into its services with its chatbot, Bob. This addresses the needs of a rapidly emerging demographic who demand a digital process and real-time certainty.

On June 1, the company rolled out improvements to the AI system so that it is able to answer complex queries and give detailed quotes at all hours.

“Bob never sleeps,” the company noted, “he’s busy answering surprisingly complicated questions about Beeline’s wide range of conventional and non-QM products with great speed and accuracy, even at 2 a.m. He then poses highly personalized product-specific questions to generate a quote in real-time.

Chris Connelly, a Managing Director at Ellington Financial Group (a shareholder in the company), said,” Because of their very diverse set of product offerings, younger home buyers have more options at Beeline vs. traditional mortgage lenders and a better chance to get financing for a new home.”

Beeline is a private company with over US$40 million currently invested. The largest shareholder is founder Nick Liuzza, who has over US$10 million invested in Beeline. Cavalry Investment Fund, Ellington, and Atalaya are all significant investors.

Important Disclosures:

Beeline has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Beeline.
Amanda Duvall and Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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Financial News Real Estate

14 Sep

US inflation data came out mixed. The labor market in Australia remains resilient

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.20% at Wednesday’s close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.29%. US consumer prices rose to 3.7% y/y in August vs. 3.2% y/y in July, which was stronger than expectations of 3.6% y/y. However, the market was supported by core inflation data. Core CPI declined to 4.3% y/y in August from 4.7% y/y in July, which matched expectations and was the smallest increase in nearly two years.

Moderna (MRNA) rose more than 6% yesterday, leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks after it reported that a modified version of its flu shot met key targets in a late-stage trial, paving the way for FDA approval of the vaccine. Ford Motor (F) shares are up more than 2% after UBS upgraded them to a “buy” rating with a $15 price target. General Motors (GM) shares added nearly 1% after UBS upgraded their rating to “buy” from “neutral” with a $44 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 0.42% on Wednesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%.

Eurozone industrial production fell by 1.1% m/m in July, weaker than expectations of 0.9% m/m and the largest decline in 4 months. The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The probability of a 25bp ECB rate hike on Thursday rose to 64% from 46% after Reuters reported that the ECB’s inflation forecasts to be released today will remain above 3% in 2024, reinforcing support for a more hawkish ECB policy.

The weekly EIA report released on Wednesday was mostly bearish for crude oil and refined products. According to the EIA, crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.96 million barrels versus expectations for a decline of 2.475 million barrels. In addition, gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 5.56 million barrels vs. expectations for a decline of 850k barrels as US gasoline demand fell by 10.9% week-on-week to 8.307 million BPD, the lowest in 7 months. It also should be noted that September and October are typically seasonally weak months for oil.

Asian markets were mostly down on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.21% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.09%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday negative 0.74%.

After an unexpected drop in the number of jobs in Australia in July, there was an increase in August, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. Immediately following the data release, the Australian dollar hit a nine-day-high, bolstering the case for the RBA to raise the rate again as inflation remains high and the labor market remains resilient. Incoming RBA chief Michelle Bullock warned that policy decisions would be made month by month, depending on economic data.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,467.44 +5.54 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,575.53 −70.46 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 15,654.03 −61.50 (−0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,525.99 −1.54 (−0.02%)

USD Index 104.76 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events for today:

– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Sep

Will ECB decision inspire STOX50 bears?

By ForexTime

ECB

STOX50 bears are testing a weekly support level
Momentum and MACD oscillators confirm bearish bias
Four potential targets identified.
Bearish scenario invalidated if 4281.7 level is broken
Will ECB decision trigger a breakout?

European shares crawled higher on Thursday, while the euro entered standby mode as investors braced for the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision.

Our focus this morning falls on the STOX50 Index which could be influenced by this major risk event!

As discussed in our week ahead report last Friday, the ECB rate decision is expected to be a close call thanks to stubborn inflation and weakening growth. While markets seem to be betting against a hike this afternoon, ECB policymakers have warned that the decision was still up in the air.

The STOX50 may find itself under renewed selling pressure if the ECB raises interest by 25 basis points as growth fears weigh heavily on European shares.
Should the ECB pause on rate hikes in September, this could offer some relief to European stocks – lending some support to the STOX50.

Regarding the technical picture…

The STOX50 index entered a weekly resistance and support level arena on 2 August, that would prove to keep the bulls and the bears in tight hand combat as the market bounced between those levels.

Bears have been testing the weekly support level more intensely during the last week or two and might be getting ready for a breakthrough. If they can break through the weekly support level and cause the price to go lower than the last bottom, an early stage of a new trend will be in process.

For a more exact picture of the possibilities with a defined trigger, stop loss, and target scenario, the FXTM D1 signals chart shows the way.

Both the Momentum as well as the MACD oscillators confirm that the momentum in the STOX50 market has changed to the bearish side and so all that is needed for the bears is to break through the 4180.4 price level to trigger a short opportunity. The stop loss will be behind the last swing at 4281.7 with four very conservative targets that become possible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 4180.4 and dragging it to the lower top at 4281.7, the following targets can be established:

• The first target is possible at 4139.9 (Target 1)

• The second price target is likely at 4119.6 (Target 2)

• The third price target is probable at 4079.1 (Target 3)

• The fourth price target might reach 4028.4 (Target 4)

If the price at 4281.7 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

13 Sep

Oil prices rose to a 10-month-high. The presentation of the new iPhone 15 lineup did not impress investors

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.05%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.04%. Weakness in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. For example, Oracle closed down more than 13% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings due to a slowdown in cloud sales. According to Morgan Stanley, Oracle’s results raise questions about the timing of artificial intelligence (AI) demand turning into revenue for the company. In addition, Apple shares were down more than 1% after introducing the iPhone 15 lineup.

On the positive side, energy stocks rallied after the price of WTI crude oil rose to a near 10-month high. In addition, shares of several regional banks rose after an upbeat outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.

The US financial markets are awaiting the release of consumer price data on Wednesday. Economists’ median estimate is that the pace of growth in the consumer price index will accelerate to 3.6% y/y in August, although the core reading, which excludes food and energy costs, will fall to 4.3% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, however, overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.6%, which would be the biggest jump since inflation peaked in June 2022. If the data matches expectations, it will increase the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the November meeting and support the USD index. Currently, markets are pricing in a 7% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 42% chance of a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.11% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.41%

The ECB meeting will take place as early as Thursday, amid much uncertainty, as price pressures in the Eurozone remain elevated and data suggests a sharp slowdown in economic activity. The latest Spanish inflation data showed that consumer prices rose to 2.6% y/y in August, influenced by higher fuel costs, up from a 2.3% y/y reading last month. The probability of the ECB raising interest rates by 25 bps at Thursday’s meeting rose to 52% from 38% a day earlier.

Oil rose to a near 10-month high, and gasoline rose to a 2-week high. Limited global oil supplies helped boost prices on Tuesday after OPEC’s monthly report forecast global crude inventories to fall to a 10-year low. A decline in oil in floating storage is also a bullish factor for prices. On Monday, Vortexa released weekly data showing that the volume of crude oil stored in tankers afloat for at least a week fell by 5.8% from the previous month to 81.02 million barrels as of September 8, the lowest in 9 months.

Asian markets traded flat on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 0.95% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.39%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.20% on Tuesday.

On Monday, natural gas prices received support from a rise in European gas prices to a one-week high. LNG production workers at key Chevron facilities in Australia began a partial strike last week after talks with management failed to reach an agreement. The workers said that if no agreement is reached, they will completely stop work for two weeks starting this Thursday.

Sentiment towards China remains largely negative as a raft of economic indicators for August painted a weak picture of Asia’s largest economy. Added to this was Beijing’s slow rollout of additional stimulus measures.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) watchers shifted their forecasts for an end to negative interest rates after Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda touched on the possibility in an interview published over the weekend. Most economists believe that the BoJ will stick to its previous policy at next week’s BoJ board meeting, with the authorities predicted to abandon negative interest rates by the end of June next year.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,461.90 −25.56 (−0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,645.99 −17.73 (−0.051%)

DAX (DE40) 15,715.53 −85.46 (−0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,527.53 +30.66 (+0.41%)

USD Index 104.54 +0.01 (+0.01%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Energy Financial News

12 Sep

“Bear Market Leader”? Here’s a Prime Candidate

This stock market sector has failed to recover since the Dow’s Q1 correction

By Elliott Wave International

As you may know, in every bull or bear market, some stocks or sector lead while others follow. So, the “leadership” in the stock market works both ways — in uptrends and down.

The rally in stocks since last November has been led by a relatively few big cap tech names, like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Meta.

As you may also know, history shows that stocks which lead on the upside often lead on the downside after a market turn occurs. That’s why in our publications we’re keeping a close eye on the tech sector right now.

Another prime candidate as a bear market leader is the banking sector.

Indeed, the August Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which covers major financial and social trends, shows this chart and says:

Bankers are bullish on investments, but investors are not bullish on banks. Bank stocks turned weak during the Dow’s Q1 correction and have failed to recover with it since. While all the major stock market indexes rose into July-August, bank stocks stayed down on the year.

Besides sinking stock prices, banks are also grappling with an extraordinarily weak commercial real estate market.

As a June headline in The Financial Times noted:

US banks prepare for losses in rush for commercial property exit

As the article notes, some banks plan to sell off property loans at a discount even though borrowers have been making their payments on time. The reason for this is that banks fear more delinquencies in commercial real estate down the road.

U.S. banks hold about $2.9 trillion in commercial real estate loans, which prompted the Wall Street Journal to pose this question in July:

Is the Banking Crisis Over? We Are About to Find Out

As you might imagine, some banks are more vulnerable than others. And Elliott Wave International has emphasized time and again that it’s important for depositors to make sure they do business with only financially sound banks. Because even during a severe economic downturn, some banks will not only survive, but thrive.

As a 2022 Elliott Wave Theorist said:

The first edition of Conquer the Crash noted that depositors would become concerned about bank risks and move their money from weak banks to strong banks, making the weak banks weaker and the strong banks stronger. This is just what happened in 2008-2009.

The next financial crisis may be just around the corner.

Realize that major economic downturns generally follow severe downturns in the stock markets, so it’s important to keep an eye on the Elliott wave structure of the main stock indexes.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis or simply need a reminder, read the definitive text on the subject, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis. This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market’s general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable.

Know that the online version of this Wall Street classic is available to you free once you sign up for a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and membership is also free with zero obligations. Members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, trading and investing.

Just follow this link to get started: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and unlimited access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Bear Market Leader”? Here’s a Prime Candidate. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

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