Archive for Financial News – Page 184

19 Sep

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.09.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4 near the support level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The pullback target could be the resistance level of 1.0720. However, the price could drop to 1.0625 and continue the downtrend without testing the resistance.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The pullback target might be 147.45. However, the price could rise to 148.50 and continue the uptrend without testing the support.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target could be 0.8655. Upon testing and breaking this level, the price could continue the uptrend. However, the quotes might correct to 0.8610 before rising.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
19 Sep

Oil’s rally continues. Investors are in no hurry to intensify trading ahead of the Fed meeting

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock exchange on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Monday at its opening price. Stock indices were down on Monday due to caution ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets fully expect the FOMC to leave the main rate target unchanged at 5.5% (99% probability) this week. However, the FOMC is expected to maintain a hawkish tone and remain open to one last rate hike, as inflation and the economy have not slowed enough yet.

Markets estimate the probability of the FOMC raising the rate by 25 bps at the November 1 meeting as 31%, and the probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next meeting on December 13 is 14%. The markets then expect the FOMC to start cutting rates in 2024 in response to an expected slowdown in the US economy.

The NAHB US housing market index published on Monday fell by  5 points to a 5-month low of 45, which was much weaker than expected. The decline in confidence expressed by US homebuilders suggests that home-building activity may weaken in the coming months.

Apple (AAPL) shares jumped by 1.69% on Monday amid optimism about strong pre-orders for the latest iPhone 15 model. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) fell by 1.98% when MoffettNathanson downgraded the company to “downgrade” from “outperform” as analysts expect weak earnings growth due to increased competition.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.71%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.76%.

For the Eurozone, the main focus for the week ahead begins today with the inflation report, and another decline could have a negative impact on the euro but a positive impact on European indices. Eurozone and German business PMIs are expected to remain weak, although Friday’s announcement by Fitch that Germany remains under a AAA credit rating suggests a positive and stable outlook for the Eurozone’s largest economy. But overall, the US economy is much stronger right now than the Eurozone economy, and that’s evident in pricing and central bank guidance. This will likely keep the US dollar high against the euro until cracks in the US economy start to appear in the inflationary and labor environment.

WTI crude oil prices rose to a new 11-month high on Monday, extending a rally seen over the past three months on expectations of a tight supply outlook for the rest of the year. Oil company Aramco forecasts record consumption of 103-104 million BPD in the second half of 2023. Oil prices received support from forecasts made last week by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC that the global oil market will be in deficit until the end of the year. And the bearish factors are not even enough to stop the rally yet.

Asian markets were mostly down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.39% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.67% on Monday.

The RBA’s Monetary Policy Minutes for August showed that Committee officials believe that inflation is still too high and is expected to remain so for an extended period of time. Committee representatives also noted that the previous month’s payroll data were broadly in line with the Bank’s forecasts: the labor market remains tight, but conditions are easing. The decision to maintain the interest rate at this meeting was due to the fact that interest rates have been raised significantly over a short period of time, and the effect of monetary tightening has not yet been fully realized.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,453.53 +3.21 (+0.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,624.30 +6.06 (+0.02%)

DAX (DE40)  15,727.12 −166.41 (−1.05%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,652.94 −58.44 (−0.76%)

USD Index  105.09 −0.24 (−0.22%)

News feed for 2023.09.19:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Energy Financial News
18 Sep

Coverage Account – Bucketing and Auto Hedging Plugin for MT5 by Your Bourse

Coverage Account – Bucketing and Auto Hedging Plugin for MT5 by Your Bourse

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 is a powerful tool that enables various functions and capabilities within the trading platform. Its primary function is to accumulate opened position volumes from the trading account on the same MT5 server. However, it offers much more than that. In this article, we will explore the features and setup process of the Coverage Plugin, and delve into different scenarios where it can be utilised effectively.

Understanding the Coverage Plugin

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 serves multiple functions, including accumulating position volumes from the trading account on the same server. Additionally, the Your Bourse plugin offers several other capabilities:

  1. Volume Hedging: It enables hedging the volume of lots from the trading accounts to the coverage accounts. The function allows the accumulation of lots from one of the trading accounts to the trading account on the same or different servers.
  2. Symbol Mappings: This capability allows the translation of mapped symbols to core symbols or other mapped symbols. For example, it enables the transfer of volumes from EURUSD.m on the trading account to EURUSD in the coverage account.
  3. Exposure Auto Hedging: This functionality allows for exposure full or partial hedging from B-book to A-book with the possibility to set up a particular volume step increment.
  4. Conditional Hedging: Under certain conditions, such as when the order volume on the B-book exceeds five lots, all customised volume increments can be directed to the A-book coverage account.

Using Coverage Account Auto Hedging Functionality

The Coverage Hedging functionality can be used in various scenarios to suit different trading needs. Here are a few examples:

  1. Common Coverage Scenario: In this scenario, the trades opened or closed will be mirrored in the coverage accounts. This functionality can be enabled in MT5 Administrator.
  2. Mapping Symbols Scenario: This scenario involves transferring orders from mapped symbols in the trading account to core symbols or other mapped symbols on the coverage account. This can be easily configured from the YourBourse portal. When trades are executed on the trading account, corresponding orders will be opened on the coverage account.
  3. Unconditional Hedging Scenario: In this scenario, orders placed in the B-book trading account will be transferred to the B-book coverage account, and an increment value can be configured to be added to the A-book coverage account. The specified increment value will be automatically added to the A-book coverage account for each volume traded on the B-book account.
  4. Conditional Hedging Scenario: In this scenario, orders placed in B-book will be transferred to the B-book coverage account, and, based on specified conditions, a customised increment value will be added to the A-book coverage account. This transfer will occur only if the volume of the order exceeds a predefined unhedged threshold and therefore the position will be hedged.

Setting up Coverage Accounts

The Coverage Plugin consists of several important elements that can be configured on the Your Bourse portal.

To enable coverage hedging functionality, you need to install the coverage plugin, configure the rules on the Your Bourse portal, create trading and coverage accounts, and set up routing rules.

Conclusion

The Coverage Plugin in MT5 provides traders with a range of functionalities and features to enhance their trading experience. By understanding its setup process and various scenarios in which it can be utilised, traders can effectively hedge volumes, map symbols, and customise increments between trading and coverage accounts. The Coverage Plugin offers a versatile tool for risk management and trading strategies on the MT5 platform.

About Your Bourse

Your Bourse offers software solutions for the retail and institutional MT4/MT5 brokers. Including: MT5 gateway & MT4 bridge, multi-asset liquidity aggregation, risk management, client profiling, real-time and historical reporting, MT4/MT5 hosting in all Equinix data centers with 99.999% SLA, plugins for MT4 & MT5 and FIX API connections for the B2B clients.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Sep

Gold Continues Three-Day Rally Amid Market Uncertainties: A Detailed Analysis

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices are on a consecutive three-day rise, reaching $1930.00 per Troy ounce as of Monday. The upward trend seems to be fueled by investors seeking a hedge against uncertainties ahead of key events this week.

Investors are keenly awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, which is widely expected to maintain the interest rate at 5.5% per annum. The primary focus will likely be on the Fed’s outlook on the economy and inflation, which should provide valuable insights into the regulator’s future course of action.

Additionally, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are set to hold their meetings this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes from its previous meeting.

Another contributing factor to gold’s demand is the sudden depreciation in the yuan exchange rate, making the precious metal more attractive as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD price chart

On the 4-hour XAU/USD chart, a downward wave has concluded at $1901.00, followed by a corrective rally to $1930.00. A consolidation phase is anticipated below this level. Should the price break below the consolidation range, there’s potential for an extension of the downward wave to $1893.40. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero but appearing to gear up for a downward movement.

On the 1-hour chart, the price has formed a consolidation zone around $1915.85. Breaking out of this range to the upside, it has corrected to $1930.25. A retracement to $1915.00 is anticipated today. If this level is decisively breached, the door may open for a more significant drop to $1893.40. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, showing its signal line above the 80 mark but trending strictly downward.

In summary, gold is experiencing a bullish streak, propelled by market uncertainties and key economic events on the horizon. Technical indicators point towards a possible short-term decline, but overall sentiment appears cautiously optimistic. Investors should closely monitor upcoming central bank meetings and currency fluctuations for further clues on the metal’s future trajectory.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
18 Sep

Dumping All Gold Into This Intraday Bounce

Source: Michael Ballanger  (9/15/23)

Michael Ballanger takes a look at the current state of gold stock and some energy stocks he believes are worth looking into.

Gold

Fourteen days ago, gold moved above its 100-dma around $1,971/ounce, with both MACD and MFI working solid “buy signals.” It appeared that a move to test $2,000/ounce was in the cards, and I took a position on that basis, also noting that gold seasonality favored an October rally.

While seasonally, September is one of the weakest months for gold, I expected that it would, at the very worst, trade sideways to slightly lower until October’s seasonally strong history kicks in, but it has been literally straight down all month, and now has broken the uptrend line drawn off the March and August lows.

From the seasonality chart shown above, you definitely want to be long the gold market going into December, but the question remains: From what level?

If I continue to hold all SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) positions while gold heads down to $1,900, I run the risk of a failure at $1,900 (GLD:US $175), and I wind up with a large drawdown on my hands as I await the always-dependable December rally. That rally might only get us back to a breakeven point, which is doubly frustrating.

I am not going to allow the GLD:US trade to deteriorate into another hit, so by the end of trading:

  • Sell all GLD:US and December $175 calls. I will take a breakeven on the calls and a modest gain on the stock and wait for a better entry point sometime later this month or in November.

Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.

With all of the uranium stocks now catching a bid thanks to a big jump in U3O8 prices at the start of the month, Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. (WUC:CSE; WSTRF:OTCQX) has once again begun an ascent to higher prices driven by buying from one of the big uranium equity funds south of the border.

First, look at the 7-year chart, which shows the crazy behavior of the uranium market, moving violently in fits and shoves from total disinterest to wild-eyed buy-side mania from out of nowhere and with little advance notice.

The moves in 2018 and 2021 saw bottoms in the early part of those years and peaks in Q4, after which they collapsed back down to earth, where prices drifted sideways month after month.

I did not trade the position because I thought then (and think today) that demand-supply conditions are tilting rapidly in favor for the uranium pricing structure where fifty-seven (57) new nuclear reactors are under construction.

From the chart shown below, you can see that there is a great deal of “room to run” for WUC/WSTRF.

Now, look at the year-to-date chart for the same company, and it tells a somewhat different story.

The stock has blasted off from under CA$0.95 to $1.71 in less than a month, taking RSI to nearly 90 (before pulling back), and both MACD and MFI are now in egregiously “overbought” territories.

Mind you, the run in 2022 saw RSI move above 70 (“overbought”) six times en route to $4.30 from the COVID-19 CRASH low of CA$0.28!

E3 Lithium and Volt Lithium

Due to the stretched RSI and elevated MACD and MFI readings, I would avoid the stock, but once again, I would not try to trade it because it is my only uranium holding in a sector that could easily see new highs for U3O8 above $138 per pound once these new reactors begin taking off all available supply over the next two years.

My theme for the decade is that the electrification movement will place incremental demand-supply pressures on new, clean sources of electricity (nuclear), transmission infrastructure needs (copper), and electricity storage capacity (lithium). Solar and wind are not capable of supplying the grid with enough electricity to satisfy escalating demand, which leaves nuclear energy as the logical heir to the throne.

Uranium producers and developers should do very well in such an environment. However, I have been hearing this for over seven years since I first bought the CA$1.70 placement in WUC:CSE and have twice missed the pops to $3.40 and $4.25. My goal is to take profits at new highs in uranium prices, which has been elusive despite compelling fundamentals.

Trade accordingly.

Last Friday, with E3 Lithium Ltd. (ETL:TSXV;EEMMF:US) trading at $5.00, I put out this chart and got roasted by ETL shareholders from Fairbanks to Boca Raton such that when it hit $5.50 on Tuesday, I was getting emails and DM’s and private messages explaining how I didn’t “get it.”

Here is the updated chart of ETL showing the impact of massively overbought conditions in RSI (above 80), MACD, and MFI, plus chatroom banter talking about a “buyout from Imperial Oil” and “short squeeze to $10 all weekend long.

Volt Lithium Corp. (VLT:TSV;VLTLF:US) is also under pressure, but RSI at 53.83 is now neutral and no longer “overbought.”

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Volt Lithium Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volt Lithium Corp. and Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.
  3. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Volt. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals
18 Sep

China’s economic indicators have started to improve. US stock indices are under pressure from the risk of economic instability

By JustMarkets

As of Friday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.83% (-0.09% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.22% (-0.68% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday negative by 1.56% (-1.27% for the week).

The US dollar came under pressure on Friday after reports from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations fell more than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The University of Michigan’s inflation expectations for September unexpectedly fell to a .5-year low of 3.1%, better than expectations of 3.5%. The University of Michigan’s US Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell by 1.8 to 67.7, weaker than expectations of 69.0. Other data showed that US manufacturing output for August rose by 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations. Industrial production rose by 0.4% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m.

The Fed will hold its monetary policy meeting this week. Economists believe that economic instability in the US (as indicated in past FOMC minutes) could go too far and increase the likelihood of a recession. Given this risk, as well as the positive trend in inflation and labor costs, analysts predict that the Fed will hold the rate for several months, and the data flow will gradually weaken the case for a rate hike in November or December. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 4% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 33%.

In Canada, the government has begun to tackle the housing crisis. In an effort to boost supply, the Canadian government announced Friday that it will eliminate the federal 5% consumption tax on the construction of new rental apartments and urged cities to be more proactive in addressing the problem.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.56% (+0.60% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.96% (+1.42% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.01% (+1.55% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.50% (+3.12% for the week). The ECB’s hawkish comments on Friday provided a boost for the euro, with European indices also reacting positively. ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB is not discussing cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council representative Vasle said that core inflation remains relatively high and did not rule out further interest rate hikes.

Silver (XAGUSD) gained support on Friday after stronger-than-expected reports on Chinese industrial production for August and US industrial production for August were stronger than expected, which is favorable for demand for industrial metals.

A weaker dollar on Friday provided support for energy prices. In addition, stronger-than-expected economic reports from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, supported energy demand. Crude oil has been supported since last Tuesday when the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC said the global oil market will be in deficit for the rest of the year. On the bearish side was Friday’s drop in stocks, which undermined confidence in the outlook for the economy and energy demand.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.58% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 1.34%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week positive by 1.71%.

The only data to focus on for China this week will be the PBoC’s decision on 1-year and 5-year loans on Wednesday. After commercial banks left the 1-year medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2.50% on Friday following a 25 basis point cut in the commercial banks’ reserve requirement ratio, it is likely that the 1-year and 5-year lending rates will remain unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively. China’s economic data has recently started to improve. Retail sales rose by 4.6% y/y in August, beating the consensus forecast of 3% as well as July’s 2.5%, the highest growth rate since May. The August industrial production figure also beat expectations of 3.9% and rose 4.5% y/y, the highest rate since April.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,450.32  −54.78 (−1.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,618.24 −288.87 (−0.83%)

DAX (DE40)  15,893.53 +88.24 (+0.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,711.38 +38.30 (+0.50%)

USD Index  105.33 −0.07 (−0.07%)

There are no important events for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
18 Sep

Trade Of The Week: GBPUSD Braces For Fed & BoE Combo

By ForexTime 

  • Fed/BoE combo could trigger GBPUSD volatility
  • Watch out for UK CPI report mid-week
  • Fed widely expected to leave rates unchanged
  • BoE expected to hike rates by 25 basis points
  • GBPUSD could see big moves, keep eye on 1.2430 level

A super central bank combo featuring the Federal Reserve and Bank of England may trigger extreme levels of volatility in the GBPUSD this week.

The past few months have been rocky for Sterling which is down roughly 2.4% in the second half of 2023 thus far.

Pound bears seem to be drawing strength from stagflation fears amid rising unemployment, sticky inflation, and stagnant economic growth.

Buying sentiment towards the currency has also been hit by disappointing economic data, further supporting Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments about the BoE nearing the end of its hiking cycle. Taking a glance at the technicals, the GBPUSD is approaching weekly support at 1.2310 – where the 50-week SMA resides.

The GBPUSD could see big moves this week and here and 3 reasons why…

  1. BoE rate decision

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 21st September.

24 hours before the BoE decision, the latest UK inflation figures will be published with markets forecasting CPI to rise 7.0%, up from the July print of 6.8%. Core inflation is projected to cool 6.8% year-on-year, down from 6.9% in the previous month. This report could influence expectations around what the BoE does beyond September.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would be the 15th straight hike, taking the key rate to 5.5% – its highest level since 2007. The key question is whether this will be the final rate hike as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against growth concerns.

Traders are currently pricing in a 79% probability of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, with the probability of another 25 basis point hike by December currently standing at 45%.

  • If the BoE raises rates and signals the possibility of another 25 basis point hike before the end of 2023, this could propel the GBPUSD higher.
  • A dovish sounding BoE that hikes interest rates but hints that this could be the final move for the remainder of 2023 may drag the GBPUSD lower.

  1. Fed rate decision

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5% at the September 19-20 meeting.

Investors will direct their attention towards the economic projections, dot plots and press conference by Jerome Powell which could offer clues on future rate hikes.

  • The GBPUSD may find itself under renewed pressure if the Fed signals one more interest rate increase in 2023.
  • Should the central bank hint that it could be done with hikes for the rest of 2023, this may weaken the dollar – pushing the GBPUSD higher as a result.

  1. Bearish technical forces

The GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs.

Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Bears are certainly in a position of power with the recent daily close below the 200-day SMA opening the doors to further downside.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.2430 could encourage a decline towards 1.2310 and 1.2250, respectively.
  • Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA at 1.2430, this could spark a rebound back toward the 1.2540 level and 1.2646 where the 100-day SMA resides.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Sep

“Climbing Oil Prices Bearish for Stocks”? It’s a Myth!

Oil and stocks sometimes trend together. Other times, they don’t.

By Elliott Wave International

There’s a widespread belief that rising oil prices are bearish for the main stock indexes and falling oil prices are bullish for stocks.

That belief is reflected in this Sept. 5 CNBC headline:

Dow closes nearly 200 points lower as rising oil prices drag down stocks …

But wait a minute, the broad stock market rallied in July as the price of crude oil was also climbing.

Getting back to the same financial website, an Aug. 1 headline said (CNBC):

Oil joined the July stocks rally …

Going further back this year, an April 14 Barron’s headline noted:

Oil Prices and Stocks Have Rallied …

These cases here in 2023 are by no means the first time that the behavior of the oil and stock markets have defied conventional wisdom.

Here’s a chart and commentary from Robert Prechter’s landmark book, The Socionomic Theory of Finance:

The July 25, 2006 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist offered [this chart], showing the preceding three-year market environment. Examine it and see if you can discern any indication whatsoever that lower oil prices make stocks rise or vice versa. As I said at the time, “Oil and stocks have trended mostly in the same direction for more than three years.

And, as you can see from this next chart, stocks and oil also crashed together for much of 2008 going into 2009. And then rose together — again, with crude oil tripling in value as the S&P 500 index doubled in value.

So, maybe rising oil prices do not “make” stocks fall after all (and vice versa.)

Every market has its own investor psychology that drives it. You may want to look to the Elliott wave model for a high-confidence ascertainment of the oil and stock markets independently from each other.

If you want to delve into the details of Elliott wave analysis, an ideal resource is Frost & Prechter’s book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic:

After you have acquired an Elliott “touch,” it will be forever with you, just as a child who learns to ride a bicycle never forgets. Thereafter, catching a turn becomes a fairly common experience and not really too difficult. Furthermore, by giving you a feeling of confidence as to where you are in the progress of the market, a knowledge of Elliott can prepare you psychologically for the fluctuating nature of price movement and free you from sharing the widely practiced analytical error of forever projecting today’s trends linearly into the future. Most important, the Wave Principle often indicates in advance the relative magnitude of the next period of market progress or regress.

Here’s good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free!

The only requirement for free access is a Club EWI membership — which is also free. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community with about 500,000 worldwide members.

Club EWI members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading — including videos and articles from Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Get started by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Climbing Oil Prices Bearish for Stocks”? It’s a Myth!. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Energy Financial News
17 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (309 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-14,142 contracts) with Silver (-8,771 contracts), Platinum (-7,881 contracts), Copper (-5,564 contracts) and Steel (-588 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold441,2219123,86432-144,8106820,94632
Silver125,2921418,03344-32,0405514,00744
Copper196,19839-12,334209,886802,44834
Palladium17,83882-10,712210,76199-4939
Platinum87,0211006,72131-12,396685,67544

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (44 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (31.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.8 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.5 percent)
Copper (20.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.0 percent)
Platinum (31.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.3 percent)
Palladium (2.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.3 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (-9 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.7 percent)
Silver (-18.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.4 percent)
Copper (-19.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.9 percent)
Platinum (-12.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.0 percent)
Palladium (-9.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.9 percent)
Steel (-8.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 123,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.425.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.358.45.8
– Net Position:123,864-144,81020,946
– Gross Longs:235,704113,06246,740
– Gross Shorts:111,840257,87225,794
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.668.132.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.116.2-2.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,804 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.331.921.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.957.59.9
– Net Position:18,033-32,04014,007
– Gross Longs:52,96340,03026,427
– Gross Shorts:34,93072,07012,420
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.055.144.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.314.54.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.339.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.634.06.9
– Net Position:-12,3349,8862,448
– Gross Longs:67,33376,56116,045
– Gross Shorts:79,66766,67513,597
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.279.833.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.923.2-31.3

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.123.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.437.23.9
– Net Position:6,721-12,3965,675
– Gross Longs:43,61919,9999,083
– Gross Shorts:36,89832,3953,408
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.167.944.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.910.56.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.062.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.02.69.4
– Net Position:-10,71210,761-49
– Gross Longs:4,45211,2171,627
– Gross Shorts:15,1644561,676
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 124.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.199.238.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.67.912.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.588.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.663.21.8
– Net Position:-5,0305,182-152
– Gross Longs:1,15418,389215
– Gross Shorts:6,18413,207367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.640.04.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.99.5-22.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
17 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (47,233 contracts) with SOFR 3-Months (44,439 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30,615 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (25,238 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (5,605 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,346 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds with a drop by -38,064 contracts and the 2-Year Bonds with a decline of -21,719 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,667,873100316,51199-313,4380-3,07386
FedFunds1,458,26143-184,95425195,04075-10,08671
2-Year3,653,52085-1,239,60921,128,53999111,07093
Long T-Bond1,339,67572-192,68722152,6636540,02478
10-Year4,681,03287-744,30210720,2109524,09279
5-Year5,391,83085-1,031,03017954,4447976,58690

 

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (99.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (96.4 percent)

 

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (17 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Fed Funds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-10.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 316,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 272,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.958.20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.961.10.4
– Net Position:316,511-313,438-3,073
– Gross Longs:1,910,7026,204,62637,259
– Gross Shorts:1,594,1916,518,06440,332
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.40.186.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.2-36.811.6

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.274.82.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.961.43.1
– Net Position:-184,954195,040-10,086
– Gross Longs:104,5721,091,05435,676
– Gross Shorts:289,526896,01445,762
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.975.471.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.6-9.4

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,239,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,217,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.883.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.752.14.1
– Net Position:-1,239,6091,128,539111,070
– Gross Longs:320,0483,031,053259,610
– Gross Shorts:1,559,6571,902,514148,540
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.398.893.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.612.00.6

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,031,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 25,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.682.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.865.16.1
– Net Position:-1,031,030954,44476,586
– Gross Longs:465,2794,464,077405,798
– Gross Shorts:1,496,3093,509,633329,212
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.779.490.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-20.67.1

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -744,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 47,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -791,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.079.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.963.98.1
– Net Position:-744,302720,21024,092
– Gross Longs:467,1143,712,430404,705
– Gross Shorts:1,211,4162,992,220380,613
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.394.778.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.67.36.3

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -146,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -177,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.175.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.462.315.6
– Net Position:-146,433233,935-87,502
– Gross Longs:216,2511,344,525189,889
– Gross Shorts:362,6841,110,590277,391
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.684.362.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-9.42.9

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -192,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.978.814.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.367.411.3
– Net Position:-192,687152,66340,024
– Gross Longs:79,6561,056,184191,340
– Gross Shorts:272,343903,521151,316
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.965.077.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.00.04.3

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -376,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -378,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.482.811.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.860.59.0
– Net Position:-376,925343,79933,126
– Gross Longs:83,7391,279,765172,214
– Gross Shorts:460,664935,966139,088
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.166.668.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.1-33.4-10.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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