Archive for Financial News – Page 183

25 Sep

Yen’s Downward Trajectory Continues as Market Anticipates BOJ’s Move

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is drawing nearer to the closely watched 150.00 level, currently experiencing most of its activity around 148.40, as of Monday. The market remains in anticipation of potential financial interventions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The BOJ has maintained its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, leaving the yen lingering near ten-month lows.

Last Friday, the BOJ opted to sustain the negative interest rate at -0.10% per annum. The Governor of the central bank highlighted the necessity for additional time to scrutinize the economy and assess the data. For currency market participants and those observing the yen exchange rate, the key concern is not the rate decision per se, but the absence of indications regarding any alterations in the monetary policy framework.

USD/JPY currency pair technical analysis

The H4 chart illustrates that USD/JPY has reached the projected target of a growth wave at 148.44 and underwent a correction to 147.33. The market has finalized a growth structure to 148.47 and is currently forming a consolidation range beneath this level. An upward breakout is anticipated, with the price potentially advancing to 149.42. Upon reaching this level, a correction to 148.44 may occur, followed by a rise to 150.50. The MACD oscillator substantiates this scenario, with its signal line positioned above zero and pointing strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart, a consolidation range has emerged around 148.33. The market is currently on an upward trajectory, aiming for 148.70, with the potential to extend to 149.90. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line, having rebounded from 50, is directed strictly upwards.

The yen continues its descent, with market participants keenly observing any signs of change in the BOJ’s monetary policy framework. Technical analysis suggests potential further growth for USD/JPY, but traders will closely watch for developments and adjust their positions accordingly.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
25 Sep

FOMC representatives maintain “hawkish” positions. Inflationary pressures are easing in Singapore

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.31% (-1.87% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.23% (-2.81% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.09% (-3.35% for the week). On Friday, hawkish comments from several FOMC policymakers supported the dollar, which was a negative factor for stock indices. In addition, a bullish factor for the dollar was the US manufacturing PMI data released on Friday. The US manufacturing PMI for September rose by 1.0 to 48.9, exceeding expectations of 48.2.

San Francisco Fed Chairwoman Daley said Friday she was not ready to declare victory in the fight against inflation and said inflation is unlikely to reach the Fed’s 2% target in 2024. Kansas Fed Chair Michelle Bowman said the same thing, only in different words, “I continue to expect that further rate increases are likely to be needed to return inflation to 2% in a timely manner.” FRB Boston President Collins said, “I expect that rates may need to be raised longer than previously thought, and further tightening is certainly not out of the question.”

According to EPFR Global, outflows from global equity funds totaled $16.9 billion for the week ended September 20, the highest in 9 months. Bank of America said investors are fleeing equities due to the prospect of higher interest rates for an extended period of time.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down by 0.09% (week-to-date -1.90%), France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) fell by 0.40% (week-to-date -2.29%) on Friday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 0.49% (week-to-date -0.30%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.07% (week-to-date -0.36%).

The EUR/USD pair has continued its steady decline since mid-July. This trend was primarily due to the contrasting economic performance of the US and Eurozone, as well as differences in the monetary policies pursued by the central banks of these countries. In recent days, these differences have pushed US Treasury yields to multi-year highs across all maturities. The Fed’s benchmark rate currently stands at 5.50%, well ahead of the European Central Bank’s 4.5% rate. This gap could widen further in the coming months as US borrowing costs could rise another 25 basis points in 2023, while the ECB has signaled that its policy tightening campaign is over.

UK private companies are cutting the number of workers at the fastest pace since the pandemic and deep financial crisis, confirming the Bank of England’s decision to pause interest rate hikes for the first time in nearly two years. S&P Global’s composite purchasing managers’ index fell to 46.8 in September from 48.6 a month earlier, the sharpest decline in output since January 2021, when the UK was in lockdown. The reading was worse than economists had expected and sent the private sector deeper into contraction.

Precious metals prices closed moderately higher on Friday, with silver posting a two-week-high. A decline in T-note yields on Friday provided support for precious metals. Silver was also supported by a stronger-than-expected US manufacturing PMI report from S&P, which was positive for industrial metals demand.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.07% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.54%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week down by 0.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative 2.89%.

Singapore’s Consumer Price Index fell to 3.4% from 3.8%, better than the expected 3.5%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell from 4.1% to 4.0%, which was in line with forecasts. With inflation slowing and GDP growth having a weak outlook, economists generally expect the Central Bank of Singapore (MAS) to leave monetary policy settings unchanged during its scheduled meeting next month.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,320.06 −9.94 (−0.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,963.84 −106.58 (−0.31%)

DAX (DE40)  15,557.29 −14.57 (−0.094%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,683.91 +5.29 (+0.07%)

USD Index  105.58 +0.22 (+0.21%)

News feed for 2023.09.25:
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Sep

Copper Is About To Soar

Source: Michael Ballanger  (9/21/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. explains why he believes copper is about to soar, as well as lithium and uranium, and shares some stocks he believes should be on your radar.

To repeat a theme that I will maintain for most of the next seven years (the decade), three components of the electrification movement will need to grow exponentially in order to meet the demand associated with this transition: More clean energy (nuclear); more transmission infrastructure (copper), and increased electrical storage capacity (lithium).

The lithium sector has been the savior of resource brokers and fund managers for most of the past three years. Using the chart of hard rock miner Patriot Battery Metals Inc. (PMET:CA), it appears as though the summer correction that hammered the bulk of the lithium miners has ended. I cannot tell whether it is going to last for very long, but short term, the runway looks clear.

The lithium “briners,” which have been a completely different story this summer, had a much-needed correction last week as the lead “briner,” E3 Lithium Ltd. (ETL:TSXV;EEMMF:US) lost a third of its value in three trading sessions after peaking at a CA$400m market cap at $5.72.

That dragged my top pick for 2023, Volt Lithium Corp. (VLT:TSV;VLTLF:US), down as well from a recovery high at CA$.395 to close out the week at $0.315.

Despite the setback, the “briners” will achieve free cash flow objectives a lot sooner than will the “miners,” but with all of the automotive money flooding into “miner projects,” I cannot see any of the lithium space players being left out of the demand-led rally that should last until at least 2030. I am inclined to invest heavily in the ones with the lowest current market cap, where management has demonstrated the ability to execute. The market caps of the three mentioned here are:

  • Patriot Battery Metals: CA$1.3 billion
  • E3 Lithium Ltd. CA$274 million
  • Volt Lithium Corp. CA$31 million

Uranium prices tapped US$62/pound this week, which sent most of the companies friendly to nuclear power on a tear. The Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM::NYSE ARCA) is now up over 40% YTD, versus the NASDAQ up 30% and the S&P up 16%.

Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE), the world’s biggest uranium miner, is up 77% YTD, while my personal holding Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. (WUC:CSE; WSTRF:OTCQX) closed at $1.62, ahead 37% YTD and still well below the peaks in 2018 (CAD $3.40) and 2021 ($4.25).

With lithium and uranium now solidly ahead for the year, one has to wonder when the last component of the “electrification trilogy” — copper — will catch the attention of the big multinational trading houses.

With most of the large copper deposits around the globe now on descending production slopes and with few new discoveries coming onstream, even finite copper demand over the balance of the decade will be enough to affect price in a huge way. However, copper demand is not going to be “finite.” it is going through the roof, and that is with or without China.

The copper bears cite “weak China growth” as a reason for anemic copper prices, but one thing is certain: if you fire up fifty-seven new nuclear reactors around the world, creating several hundred million new megawatts of electricity, you are going to need a much larger transmission infrastructure which means wires and unless they find a way to transmit current more efficiently using a substance other than copper wiring, then copper is going to move into “shortage” at some point and when that point arrives, prices will explode.

The Copper Miners ETF (COPX:US) has come a long way off the COVID-19 CRASH lows, but tops in the US$42-43 range have not been revisited because of the waffling copper price. If I own uranium and lithium stocks, which I do because I am a fervent believer in the electrification movement, then I cannot construct a portfolio without copper.

Now, copper is seen by many as a boring, unexciting sector with very few junior copper deals commanding much (if any) attention. It may be that copper mining is seen as environmentally hostile to the spirit and soul of the electrification movement and thus shunned by the “woke” community of newbie investors.

I would answer that by pointing to the Energy ETF (XLE:US), up over 27% YTD with many of the components carrying P/E’s of around 8. As socially and politically “uncool” as oil and gas extraction is, money has found the sector, and investors are being rewarded. I think the same result holds true for copper, so outside of owning a few call options on the COPX:US, I am actively seeking out a cheap junior with an advanced exploration or development project that I can get behind before the rest of the world wakes up.

Lithium has soared; uranium is now soaring; the last of the electrification trilogy is about to soar.

BUY COPPER.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Volt Lithium Corp. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volt Lithium Corp. and Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp.
  3. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with: Volt Lithium Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals
22 Sep

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ARK). Overview for 22.09.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate could not support the growing momentum and slid back to 26,654 USD.

Once again, the same scenario is developing in the digital asset market. The price of the flagship cryptocurrency gradually drops, and the market starts buying vigorously. The value rises by 4-5%, and then just as quickly falls back down within two days.

This will continue until the market has a clear buying driver.

Such a catalyst could be the news about the approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of applications for bitcoin-ETF licencing. But the information on this matter will only be available in mid-October.

The marks of support levels are relevant again. These include 25,500 USD and 25,150 USD, with resistance at 27,800 USD. Another growth attempt to break through resistance has failed.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has dropped to 1.06 trillion USD. The BTC share is still at 49.2%, while the share of ETH has declined to 18.2%.

The value of ARK has fallen sharply

The price of one of the most discussed tokens on the market, ARK, has dropped markedly, with the quotes losing 20% in 24 hours. The capitalisation of the coin decreased to 100 million USD.

Polygon introduces Pokémon NFTs

Polygon blockchain has launched NTF cards featuring legendary anime Pokémon, and they sold out at once. The original cost of these cards increased ten times, with 175 cards being sold within seconds.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
22 Sep

The central banks of Norway and Sweden continue to raise rates. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England press on pause

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.64%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.82%. Stocks and indices extended Wednesday’s losses yesterday as the hawkish tone of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting dampened global risk sentiment. Stock index futures added to their losses after weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low, indicating a strengthening labor market and a hawkish tone for Fed policy.

The Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey of US business activity for September fell from 25.5 to 13.5, weaker than expectations of 1.0. US home sales for August unexpectedly fell by 0.7% m/m to a 7-month low of 4.04 million units, weaker than expectations for a 0.7% m/m increase to 4.10 million units.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.59%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 1.03%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.69%.

A representative of the ECB Governing Council and Bundesbank President Nagel said yesterday that it is too early to say that interest rates have reached a plateau, as inflation is still “too high” and forecasts still show only a slow decline towards the ECB’s 2% target. Another ECB official, Central Bank of Ireland Governor Makhlouf, said that an ECB rate hike is still possible in October and that it is too early to plan for a rate cut next March.

The Bank of England (BoE) unexpectedly left the rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, although the market expected an increase to 5.5%. However, the margin of votes was only 5 vs. 4. The accompanying statement of the bank stated the following: “If there are signs of more sustained inflationary pressures, further tightening of monetary policy will be required.” Overall, the Bank of England is following the same path as the Fed and ECB – a pause with a possible increase in the future.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) followed the ECB and the Fed and left the rate unchanged at 1.75%, although the market was expecting a 0.25% increase at the current meeting. By taking a pause, the Central Bank kept the door open for a further increase. At the same time, the Swiss National Bank said it could intervene (in support of the Swiss franc exchange rate) in the foreign exchange market as needed.

The National Bank of Sweden (Riksbank) raised the rate by 25 bps to 4% and may raise it again as “inflationary pressures are too high.” The inflation forecast for 2024 has been raised to 4.6% and will be 8.6% this year after 8.4% in 2022. Meanwhile, the Riksbank said it would start intervening to support the Swedish krona exchange rate to the level of $8 bn and €2 bn (about 1/4 of its foreign exchange reserves) over the next 4-6 months, calling it “hedging foreign exchange reserves.”

Norway’s Central Bank (Norges Bank) on Thursday raised its main deposit rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, the highest since 2008. The move adds pressure to Norway’s economy, which is currently experiencing a slowdown. The bank also hinted at the possibility of a further rate hike in December. In addition to the rate hike, Norges Bank slightly revised its key rate forecasts, suggesting that it will be around 4.5% until 2024.

Crude oil prices rose yesterday after Russia said it would ban gasoline and diesel exports in an attempt to stabilize domestic fuel prices. The ban will reduce fuel supplies by about 1 million BPD, which is about 3.4% of total global demand (according to Vortexa), and will further squeeze supply in an already tight global market.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.37%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.29% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 1.37% on Thursday.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left interest rates at negative levels as expected. The BOJ said it will maintain the current yield curve control (YCC) rates, allowing bond yields to fluctuate between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5%, allowing up to 1%. The BOJ also said that amid high uncertainty surrounding the Japanese economy, especially amid slowing growth in countries that are its largest trading partners, it will continue to ease monetary policy and strive to achieve its 2% annualized inflation target. Japanese 10-year bond yields fell nearly 2% after the BOJ statement. Data released earlier on Friday showed Japan’s consumer price index inflation rose more than expected in August amid solid consumer spending, rising oil prices, and a renewed yen depreciation.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,330.00 −72.20 (−1.64%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,070.42 −370.46 (−1.08%)

DAX (DE40)  15,571.86 −209.73 (−1.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,678.62 −53.03 (−0.69%)

USD Index  105.39 +0.19 (+0.18%)

News feed for 2023.09.22:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Sep

Fed: all according to plan. Overview for 21.09.2023

By RoboForex.com

The primary currency pair is experiencing pressure on Thursday. The current EURUSD exchange rate stands at 1.0632.

The US Federal Reserve decided to maintain the interest rate unchanged at its September meeting, keeping it within the target range of 5.25-5.50% per annum.

In the Fed’s remarks, it was noted that the decision was unanimous while leaving open the possibility of potentially increasing the rate once more before the end of the year.

This aligns with what the market had been expecting, indicating a potential increase in borrowing costs at the November meeting. The Fed clarified its intention to keep the rate elevated for an extended period.

Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that the economy is expected to experience a so-called soft landing. While not the baseline scenario, it is considered the primary objective.

Overall, Powell was very cautious, enigmatic, and seemed somewhat uncertain.

The US dollar initially declined but swiftly recovered, maintaining a strong position.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Sep

The FOMC plans to hold another rate hike before the end of the year. New Zealand is likely to avoid recession

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.94%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.46%. Stocks declined after the US Federal Reserve took another pause but signaled that interest rates will still be rising. Policymakers said another 25 bps rate hike is likely this year, and the FOMC dot plot showed that the target for the federal funds rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 50 bps higher than forecast in June. The Fed’s hawkish stance drove the 10-year T bond yield to a 16-year high and sent stocks and stock indexes tumbling.

Yesterday, the FOMC voted unanimously to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50%, with 12 of 19 policymakers expecting another 25 bps rate hike this year. At the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the following: “The FOMC is prepared to raise rates further if necessary, and we intend to keep policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving steadily downward toward our objectives.”

The FOMC’s median forecast for US economic growth in 2023 was raised to 2.1% from 1.0% in June. In addition, the unemployment rate forecast for 2023 was lowered to 3.8% from June’s forecast of 4.1%. The core PCE price deflator (the US Federal Reserve’s inflation indicator) for 2023 was lowered to 3.7% from the June forecast of 3.9%. Markets are now pricing in a 31% probability that the FOMC will raise the lending rate by 25 bps at its next meeting on November 1 and a 54% probability that the rate will be raised by 25 bps at the December 13 meeting.

Bank of America raised its year-end price target for the S&P 500 (US500) to 4,600 from a previous forecast of 4,300, saying macrocycle indicators, including valuations and positioning, are giving bullish signals.

Alphabet’s (GOOGL) stock price is down by more than 3% on news that the company has managed to recover only 40% of the mobile traffic it previously received through its mapping service after Apple replaced Google Maps on its iPhones in favor of its own app.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.75%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.67% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.30%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.93%. European equities were supported yesterday amid signs of slowing price pressures in Europe and the UK after producer prices in Germany fell in August, and consumer prices in the UK showed a sharp decline. In the UK, the overall inflation rate fell from 6.9% to 6.2% y/y, while core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) fell from 6.8% to 6.7% y/y. The more detailed report also showed a decline in services inflation, which had been a major concern for the MPC amid soaring wage growth.

New car registrations in the Eurozone rose by 21.0% y/y in August to 788,000 units, the largest increase in 5 months. The Eurozone’s construction output rose by 0.8% m/m in July, the largest increase in the last five months.

WTI crude oil prices suffered moderate losses on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate forecast for next year, which helped the dollar recover and could curb economic growth and energy demand. Tensions in the oil market are expected to continue as OPEC+ production cuts are extended.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 0.66%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.62% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.46% on Wednesday.

Japan’s exports declined by 0.8% y/y in August, which was less than expectations of 2.1% y/y. In addition, imports fell by 17.8% y/y in August, the largest decline in three years but less than the expected 20.0% y/y.

New Zealand’s GDP for the quarter grew by 0.9%, better than expectations of 0.4%. Stronger-than-expected economic growth could be a challenge for the RBNZ, which has said it needs to see a slowdown in economic growth to lower inflation and inflation expectations. New Zealand’s central bank forecast in August that the country would enter recession in the third quarter of 2023, while in updated forecasts released last week, the Treasury said it expects the country to avoid recession.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,402.20 −41.75 (−0.94%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,440.88  −76.85 (−0.22%)

DAX (DE40)  15,781.59 +117.11 (+0.75%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,731.65 +71.45 (+0.93%)

USD Index  105.36 +0.16 (+0.15%)

News feed for 2023.09.19:
  • – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Statement at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Norwegian Interest Rate Decision at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 Sep

Fed would make a huge mistake if rates are hiked again this year

By George Prior 

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady but are prepared to raise rates again in November – and this will be “an error of judgement,” predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the US central bank confirms the lower bound at 5.25% and the upper bound at 5.50%.

He comments: “The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged this time around, as was widely predicted by analysts and which was priced-in by the markets.

“As such, investors were less interested in this decision, but much more so on what Chair Jerome Powell and Fed policymakers hinted at for the future path.”

The deVere CEO continues: “He was, unsurprisingly, keen to stress that the war on inflation isn’t yet won.

“This lack of obvious decisiveness was deliberate to avoid a major market reaction, which would make their task of cooling the world’s largest economy harder.

“The US central bank, still a long way from its 2% target, will be concerned about the resilience of the economy and the markets, despite its efforts to cool them by making borrowing costs more expensive with the most aggressive policy tightening agenda in decades.”

This scenario leads Nigel Green to expect that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again this year.

“We believe the Fed isn’t done yet.

“We expect it will resume its hiking programme in November. But this, we believe, would be an error of judgement and could leave scars on the US economy,” he notes.

“The time lag for monetary policies is incredibly lengthy. It takes around two years for the full effect of rate hikes to make their way into the economy.

“We’re now starting to see the drag effects on the US economy with households and businesses becoming considerably more prudent. In addition, investors are becoming more and more concerned that additional hikes could steer the US economy into a recession.”

Further stifling growth through the cost of capital becoming prohibitive for companies and consumers leads to a decline in capital formation, reduced entrepreneurial activity, investment and innovation. “These effects hinder future growth potential and undermine an economy’s competitiveness on the global stage.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Should more interest rate hikes further squeeze economic growth, the longer-term consequences will be far worse than higher for a bit longer inflation, which is already coming down – we’re in the end game already.

“The Fed would be making a huge mistake to resume hikes in November.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
20 Sep

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, USDC). Overview for 20.09.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate surged to 27,104 USD on Wednesday.

Bitcoin is back in the game. On Monday, the market began aggressive buying, which came to a sudden halt on Tuesday, just as abruptly as it started. Nevertheless, during this time, BTC managed to achieve a three-week high. Since September 12, the market capitalisation of BTC has increased by nearly 10%. The pivotal supporting event here is the upcoming launch of the first Bitcoin ETF.

Recall that important support for the leading cryptocurrency is at the 25,150 USD level. Resistance stands at 27,800 USD, and it is critical for BTC to break through this level.

Today marks the conclusion of the regular meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The interest rate situation is clear: it will remain at 5.5% per annum. However, the major intrigue lies in what the Fed will communicate about its future decisions. News from this front could attract more attention to cryptocurrencies.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has risen to USD 1.07 trillion. BTC’s share has increased to 49.2%, while the ETH share has decreased to 18.3%.

Binance and Grayscale are the leading BTC holders

According to publicly available information, currently, the most substantial holders of the flagship cryptocurrency include Satoshi Nakamoto, who may own at least 750 thousand BTC. Binance holds another 643.5 thousand BTC, and Grayscale’s assets are estimated at 627.7 thousand BTC.

Circle launched stablecoin

Circle developers have announced the launch of the USDC stablecoin on Polkadot’s Asset Hub. This token can be employed in other parachains using the XCM protocol.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
20 Sep

China kept key interest rates unchanged. Inflation is accelerating in Canada

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.40%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.22%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.23% on Tuesday. Stock indices declined amid a weak US housing report and a rise in 10-year bond yields to a 15-year high. US housing starts fell by 11.3% to 1.283 million units in August, much weaker than expectations of a decline of around 1%. In addition, the likelihood of an expanded UAW union strike and the resumption of student loan payments on October 1 also put downward pressure on stocks. Stocks also traded on a cautious note ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting. Markets fully expect the FOMC to leave the lending rate target unchanged at 5.25/5.50%. However, markets expect the FOMC to maintain its hawkish attitude and leave open the possibility of another rate hike later this year. This would be negative for stock indices.

Canadian inflation accelerated more than expected for the second consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index rose from 3.3% to 4% y/y in August, the fastest pace since April. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose slightly to 3.3% from 3.2%. The three-month moving average of indicators the Bank of Canada cited as key to its team rose a full percentage point to 4.49% on an annualized basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Investors raised bets that Canada’s Central Bank will resume policy tightening and hold another rate hike at its October meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.40%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.09%. The August Eurozone Consumer Price Index was revised slightly from 5.3% to 5.2% y/y. Core CPI remained unchanged at 5.3% y/y. Lower inflationary pressures are dovish for ECB policy.

OECD economists cut the UK’s economic growth forecast for next year due to pressure on households and businesses from high interest rates. The analysts added that economic activity in the UK has “already weakened” due to the “lagged effect on household incomes from a large energy price shock in 2022.” The think tank forecast economic growth of 0.3% in 2023, which would be the second weakest among G7 countries.

WTI crude oil prices rose to a new 10-month high on Tuesday, extending the rally seen over the past three months, driven by expectations of a strong supply outlook for the rest of the year. However, crude oil prices declined later in the session, pressured by liquidations of long positions and some concerns about the global economy. Yesterday, the OECD lowered its 2024 global GDP forecast to 2.7% from 3.0%.

Asian markets traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 declined yesterday by 0.87%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.02%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.37% on the day, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.47% on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China kept the one-year LPR rate unchanged at 3.45%, while the five-year LPR rate, which is used to determine mortgage rates, was left unchanged at 4.20%. Both rates are at historic lows after three cuts over the past year. Key comments from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) official following the meeting:

  • The PBOC will pay more attention to changes in the RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies;
  • There is a solid basis for keeping the RMB exchange rate basically stable;
  • The PBOC will resolutely correct the unilateral pro-cyclical behavior of the RMB exchange rate;
  • The PBOC will resolutely crack down on market disruption, resolutely guard against the risks of exchange rate overvaluation;
  • China’s monetary policy still has ample room to respond to unexpected challenges and changes.

On Friday, the Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting. While no changes are expected at this meeting, swap market indicators are now showing stronger expectations for a soon-to-be abandonment of negative interest rates by March 2024 than a further widening of the range around the BoJ’s 10-year bond yield target. Against this backdrop, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to take a somewhat hawkish stance, primarily to manage the yen’s depreciation.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,443.95 −9.58 (−0.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,517.73 −106.57 (−0.31%)

DAX (DE40)  15,664.48 −62.64 (−0.40%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,660.20 +7.26 (+0.095%)

USD Index  105.15 −0.06 (−0.05%)

News feed for 2023.09.19:
  • – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Economic Projections at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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