Archive for Financial News – Page 13

USD/JPY Rises for Third Day: Will There Be Yen Intervention or Not

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.73 on Monday. The Japanese yen has fallen for a third consecutive day due to a fresh surge in oil prices following the failure of the United States and Iran to reach an agreement at talks in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz and is considering resuming attacks on Iran, dramatically increasing the risks of an escalating global energy crisis.

The protracted conflict is narrowing the Bank of Japan’s room for manoeuvre. A split remains within the regulator: some members are concerned about rising inflation, while others worry about the risks of an economic slowdown. The BoJ is scheduled to meet on 27-28 April.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noted that monetary policy could be used to curb inflation through support for a stronger yen.

The exchange rate is now approaching the key level of 160 per dollar. Previously, this area served as a trigger for currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 158.88 level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 159.82. Today, the beginning of a correction to the 158.88 level is expected, followed by a rise to 160.60. Subsequently, a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued correction to 156.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below the zero level and pointing strictly upwards, reflecting the potential for the wave to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market completed a growth wave structure to 159.82. Today, the probability of the next downward wave developing to the 158.88 level (testing from above) will be considered. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating that downside potential remains in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its three-day rally as failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad triggered a fresh spike in oil prices, with President Trump threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz and resume attacks. The yen remains under pressure, while the Bank of Japan faces internal divisions over how to respond to competing inflation and growth risks. With the pair approaching the psychologically significant 160 level-a previous intervention trigger-markets are on high alert for potential action from Japanese authorities. Technical indicators suggest a possible near-term correction before further upside, but the yen’s fate ultimately hinges on whether geopolitical tensions escalate or ease in the coming days.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Marathon talks, zero results…

By ForexTime

  • US-Iran peace talks fail
  • Oil benchmarks rally on supply fears
  • Dollar gains amid safe-haven flows
  • US30 may be rocked by big bank earnings
  • Time for gold to resume decline?

Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks concluded without a resolution after 21 hours of negotiations.

Both sides were unable to agree on issues like Iran’s nuclear program or its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

This failure is poised to erode market sentiment and boost oil benchmarks amid rising geopolitical risk premiums.

And such was reflected on Sunday when markets opened with sharp gaps from Friday’s close.

  • WTI: ↑ 10%
  • BRENT: ↑ 8%
  • USDInd: ↑ 1%
  • XAUUSD: ↓ 2%
  • XAGUSD: ↓ 4%

Note: Gains shown represent the gap from Friday’s close. 

What next?

The failure to reach a deal represents a major element of uncertainty for markets.

However, Iran’s foreign ministry left the door open to further talks, so all is not lost.

This could translate into heightened volatility across global markets due to the fragile and sensitive sentiment.

Update on the Hormuz

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz operated at minimal levels on Sunday before Trump vowed to begin a full naval blockage on Monday.

A full blockade of the strait will add further pressure to global oil markets.

Note: US to impose Iran shipping blockade from 10 a.m. ET Monday.

—————————————————————————-

US30 braces for big bank earnings

DID YOU KNOW:

FXTM’s US30 has gained over 3% since the start of April.

WHY?

Last week, US equities saw their biggest weekly gain in 2026 as investors evaluated economic data and a fragile truce between US-Iran.

HOWEVER

Recent gains may be relinquished due to weekend talks ending without a deal.

WHAT COULD MOVE US30 THIS WEEK?

All eyes will be on big bank earnings and speeches by Fed officials.

Q1 earnings season unofficially kicks off on Monday, led by the biggest US banks.

  • Monday 13th: Goldman Sachs
  • Tuesday 14th: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Blackrock
  • Wednesday 15th: Bank of America

US banks are expected to post record trading revenues thanks to conflict-induced market volatility.

Note: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan account for almost 16% of the US30 weight.

  • Markets are forecasting a 2.8% move, either Up or Down, for Goldman Sachs stocks post-earnings.
  • Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for JPMorgan Chase stocks post-earnings

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

BULLISH: A solid move above 48,000 may trigger an incline toward 49,000 and 50,000.

BEARISH: Weakness below 48,000 could see a move toward the 200-day SMA at 47,000 and 46,000.


 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

 

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Steel

Metals Net Positions COT Chart 
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,701 contracts) with Steel (420 contracts) and Copper (123 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-6,897 contracts), Silver (-487 contracts) and with Palladium (-343 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

Highlighting the Metals market speculative positions this week was Platinum, which saw speculator bets rise higher for a second straight week as well as the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. Platinum bets have now risen to a net standing of over +18,000 contracts, and this week’s level marks the most bullish position of the past 13 weeks dating back to January 6th. The Platinum positioning has now been above +10,000 net contracts for 47 consecutive weeks, dating back to May 13th of 2025.

Gold positions fell this week for the second consecutive week and for the third time out of the last four weeks. Gold speculator positioning has cooled off significantly since January, when the net position was a total of 251,238 contracts on January 13th to this week’s standing of 156,305 contracts, a difference of -94,933 contracts being subtracted from the overall net bullish position. The Gold position has now had less than +200,000 contracts for 10 straight weeks, and this week marked the lowest level of bullish net contracts since February 2024.

The Metals Markets’ price performance was higher across the board.

In the metals markets, prices were higher across the board as a ceasefire in the Iran war seemed to give relief to the metals’ recent price slides. Silver was the biggest winner on the week with a 6.17% gain while Copper came in second with a 4.65% rise for the week. Platinum was a close third with a 4.24% gain. Gold was higher by 2.65%, followed by Steel, which got a boost of 2.34%, and then Palladium rounded out the gainers with a 2.12% increase for the week.


Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (85 percent) and Palladium (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (26 percent) and Gold (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.6 percent)
Silver (26.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.0 percent)
Copper (70.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.6 percent)
Platinum (56.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (85.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (83.4 percent)

 


Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (12 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.3 percent)
Silver (2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-0.2 percent)
Copper (-17.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-17.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.0 percent)
Palladium (-13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.2 percent)
Steel (-2.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 156,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -6,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,202 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.916.313.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.870.93.3
– Net Position:156,305-193,75137,446
– Gross Longs:205,36857,72949,117
– Gross Shorts:49,063251,48011,671
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.2 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.858.675.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.8-12.2

 


Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,904 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.524.521.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.258.38.2
– Net Position:23,417-38,91515,498
– Gross Longs:32,81028,21124,908
– Gross Shorts:9,39367,1269,410
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.275.038.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.03.5-18.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,104 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.337.49.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.460.44.1
– Net Position:40,227-51,61511,388
– Gross Longs:72,63784,01920,588
– Gross Shorts:32,410135,6349,200
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.726.073.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.017.9-13.0

 


Platinum Futures Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,337 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.529.012.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.467.54.6
– Net Position:18,038-23,0344,996
– Gross Longs:27,25917,3937,735
– Gross Shorts:9,22140,4272,739
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.147.156.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.0-8.8-15.8

 


Palladium Futures Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,050 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.837.214.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.034.88.0
– Net Position:-1,3933751,018
– Gross Longs:6,6555,6552,228
– Gross Shorts:8,0485,2801,210
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.720.055.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.613.0-2.6

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,918 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.361.71.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.294.90.2
– Net Position:11,338-11,727389
– Gross Longs:12,10321,746472
– Gross Shorts:76533,47383
– Long to Short Ratio:15.8 to 10.6 to 15.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.314.786.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.32.3-3.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro 

Bonds Market Open Interest Comparison

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

Bonds Market Net Speculators Positions
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (33,911 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,825 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (8,889 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7,746 contracts) and also the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,825 contracts) seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were  the 2-Year Bonds (-74,691 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-39,561 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,363 contracts), and with the Fed Funds (-23,798 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads the Bonds Market’s price performance

In the Bond Markets, the long US Treasury Bond was the biggest winner on the week with a modest 0.36% gain. This was followed by the Ten-Year Note, which rose by 0.34% on the week. The Five-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.24% rise and was followed by the Two-Year Bond, which rose by a similar 0.11% uptick.

Fed Funds were virtually unchanged at a 0.02% rise, while the 1-Month SOFR ticked up by 0.02%, and the 3-Month SOFR followed with a 0.01% edge higher.


Bonds Data:

Bonds Market Speculators Data Table
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

Bonds Market Strength Index Comparison
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (58.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (56.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (66.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (65.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (70.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (28.6 percent)


5-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Bonds Market Trend Index Comparison
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-31.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-34.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (26.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-22.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (20.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (5.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,706 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.264.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.261.51.8
– Net Position:-74,50459,45715,047
– Gross Longs:315,7741,191,54547,913
– Gross Shorts:390,2781,132,08832,866
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.353.376.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.2-17.9-15.6

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -564,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 24,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,139 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.858.40.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.553.70.1
– Net Position:-564,314563,506808
– Gross Longs:2,024,3407,040,93018,517
– Gross Shorts:2,588,6546,477,42417,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.970.541.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-10.5-1.3

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lift of 8,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,508 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.061.40.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.457.00.0
– Net Position:-57,61957,55069
– Gross Longs:299,348800,504201
– Gross Shorts:356,967742,954132
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.732.367.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.1-20.1-0.1

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,712,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -74,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,637,324 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.280.64.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.645.73.1
– Net Position:-1,712,0151,638,97873,037
– Gross Longs:525,5603,791,639220,318
– Gross Shorts:2,237,5752,152,661147,281
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.010.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.234.1-16.7

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,552,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,586,840 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.280.56.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.357.45.2
– Net Position:-1,552,9291,494,03958,890
– Gross Longs:656,8015,190,375393,143
– Gross Shorts:2,209,7303,696,336334,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.643.822.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.6-23.1-41.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -823,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,063 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.178.77.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.263.17.2
– Net Position:-823,624799,34224,282
– Gross Longs:567,6834,032,672394,531
– Gross Shorts:1,391,3073,233,330370,249
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.373.123.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.94.68.4

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -161,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position gain of 5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,212 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.881.98.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.670.512.9
– Net Position:-161,387268,760-107,373
– Gross Longs:207,7811,934,136196,994
– Gross Shorts:369,1681,665,376304,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.646.222.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.632.6-12.4

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -27,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,633 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.174.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.476.67.6
– Net Position:-58,996-44,309103,305
– Gross Longs:197,9531,324,620239,238
– Gross Shorts:256,9491,368,929135,933
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.934.752.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.333.8-47.3

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -260,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -268,129 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.685.88.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.174.38.2
– Net Position:-260,383261,393-1,010
– Gross Longs:126,5011,941,140184,064
– Gross Shorts:386,8841,679,747185,074
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.542.214.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-2.4-14.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro 

Speculators OI Energy Futures COT Chart

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

Speculators Nets Energy Futures COT Chart
The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with a gain of 4,691 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Bloomberg Index (-98,639 contracts), Natural Gas (-16,531 contracts), WTI Crude (-11,335 contracts), Gasoline (-8,734 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,205 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude and Bloomberg Commodity Index highlight weekly changes

Highlighting the Energy market changes this week was Brent Oil, which was the only market with a positive week in speculator bets. Brent Oil saw a sharp drop by over -18,000 contracts last week (March 31st) and rebounded by almost +5,000 contracts this week. Overall, the Brent Crude Oil speculator position remains in negative territory as this market is usually negative and incorporates a lot of hedging activity.

Next up, the Bloomberg Commodity Index positions dropped by the most on record, falling by almost -100,000 contracts this week after seeing an influx of positions by over +35,000 contracts last week (March 31st). The Bloomberg Commodity Index bets fell by -98,639 contracts this week, bringing the overall net position standing to -75,342 contracts. This means the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at the lowest or most bearish level on record dating back to 2016, according to CFTC data.

Energy Markets Price Performance was lower across the board on the Iran war ceasefire.

In the energy markets, Gasoline fell the least this week with a -3.47% decline, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which retreated by -4.46%. Natural Gas was down by over 6% with a drop by -6.13%.

The biggest losers on the week and most significantly affected by the Iran war ceasefire, were Brent Oil which fell by -13.91%, WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -14.09%, and Heating Oil, which decreased strongly by -16.45% over the past five days.


Energy Data:

Speculators Table Energy Futures COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

Speculators Strength Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (55.2 percent), Gasoline (53.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (14.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (36.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Natural Gas (14.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.0 percent)
Gasoline (53.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (62.6 percent)
Heating Oil (55.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (100.0 percent)

 


Brent Oil & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Energy Futures COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (26.2 percent) and WTI Crude (9.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Index (-63.8 percent) and Gasoline (-43.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (23.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.6 percent)
Natural Gas (9.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (11.8 percent)
Gasoline (-43.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-63.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (34.7 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 202,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,488 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.743.44.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.854.72.6
– Net Position:202,153-230,46628,313
– Gross Longs:381,615883,57681,673
– Gross Shorts:179,4621,114,04253,360
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.346.356.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-4.2-31.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,815 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.540.54.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.330.13.2
– Net Position:-31,12427,4163,708
– Gross Longs:67,615107,13812,052
– Gross Shorts:98,73979,7228,344
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.861.286.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.2-32.737.7

 


Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -183,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,456 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.736.73.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.526.32.2
– Net Position:-183,987162,08721,900
– Gross Longs:212,869572,12356,582
– Gross Shorts:396,856410,03634,682
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.485.258.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-14.016.6

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -8,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,326 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.049.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.472.65.1
– Net Position:59,592-74,02014,428
– Gross Longs:80,253158,73630,682
– Gross Shorts:20,661232,75616,254
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.037.883.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.237.29.5

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,092 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.249.718.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.462.99.4
– Net Position:8,887-30,23121,344
– Gross Longs:34,892113,69642,973
– Gross Shorts:26,005143,92721,629
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.237.876.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.59.1-4.4

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -98,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,297 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.356.90.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.125.30.0
– Net Position:-75,34274,711631
– Gross Longs:100,140134,711657
– Gross Shorts:175,48260,00026
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.2 to 125.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.074.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-63.864.0-9.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Speculators OI Softs
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

Speculators Nets Softs
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (13,685 contracts) with Cotton (12,970 contracts), Live Cattle (11,756 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,750 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-43,938 contracts), Soybeans (-19,387 contracts), Wheat (-9,292 contracts), Sugar (-5,636 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,330 contracts), Coffee (-3,349 contracts) and Cocoa (-471 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads Soft Commodities price performance.

The price performance of Soft Commodities this week was led by Soybean Meal, which rose by roughly 5%, with a gain of 4.87% over the past five days. Cotton comes in next with a 3.30% gain, while Live Cattle rose by 2.85% on the week. Soybeans rounded out the leaders with a 1.38% rise.

On the downside, Cocoa was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.09% decline, followed by Lean Hogs which fell by -0.72%. Next up, Corn was lower by -1.89% and was followed by Wheat which declined by -2.44%. Soybean Oil dipped by a similar -2.51%.

The biggest losers on the week were Coffee, which fell by -4.67%, and Sugar, which dropped by -8.27% over the past five days.


Soft Commodities Data:

Speculators Table Softs
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil, Soybeans & Soybean Meal

Speculators Strength Softs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent), Soybean Meal (90 percent) and Soybeans (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (88 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (75.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (81.8 percent)
Sugar (34.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (45.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (89.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (90.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.9 percent)
Live Cattle (80.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (59.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.2 percent)
Cotton (75.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.4 percent)
Wheat (88.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (96.5 percent)


Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Speculators Trend Softs
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (54 percent) and Corn (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (35 percent), Sugar (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (29 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-8 percent) and Wheat (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (38.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.6 percent)
Sugar (32.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (8.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.2 percent)
Soybeans (-0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (35.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (53.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (62.0 percent)
Cocoa (-8.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.5 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 290,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -43,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,757 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.340.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.353.310.8
– Net Position:290,819-232,969-57,850
– Gross Longs:459,961735,945138,149
– Gross Shorts:169,142968,914195,999
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.821.939.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-37.2-42.6

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -70,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decrease of -5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,117 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.952.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.645.59.1
– Net Position:-70,75367,2543,499
– Gross Longs:193,215487,72487,929
– Gross Shorts:263,968420,47084,430
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.367.035.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.9-32.020.7

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,056 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.538.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.151.05.2
– Net Position:21,707-21,687-20
– Gross Longs:50,14368,1029,061
– Gross Shorts:28,43689,7899,081
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.057.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-8.4-3.3

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 208,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -19,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,846 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.445.65.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.563.48.3
– Net Position:208,459-177,172-31,287
– Gross Longs:283,509456,24651,916
– Gross Shorts:75,050633,41883,203
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.113.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-0.411.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 148,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position boost of 13,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,557 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.943.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.766.03.8
– Net Position:148,242-164,15215,910
– Gross Longs:196,916317,87843,469
– Gross Shorts:48,674482,03027,559
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.097.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.2-34.923.5

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,194 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.943.38.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.566.14.6
– Net Position:116,864-137,10920,245
– Gross Longs:168,116260,24048,019
– Gross Shorts:51,252397,34927,774
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.48.557.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-30.33.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position uptick of 11,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,260 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.028.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.754.113.6
– Net Position:104,016-87,776-16,240
– Gross Longs:154,47198,07330,416
– Gross Shorts:50,455185,84946,656
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.515.441.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.2-12.8-6.0

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,711 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.734.76.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.646.88.5
– Net Position:46,461-40,270-6,191
– Gross Longs:124,530114,43821,871
– Gross Shorts:78,069154,70828,062
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.243.140.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.114.322.5

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,387 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.935.85.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.256.03.2
– Net Position:61,357-69,8438,486
– Gross Longs:131,279124,05819,645
– Gross Shorts:69,922193,90111,159
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.623.784.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:53.8-52.535.5

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position lowering of -471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,601 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.750.65.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.439.85.4
– Net Position:-22,07222,199-127
– Gross Longs:44,385103,76210,928
– Gross Shorts:66,45781,56311,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.08.9-12.4

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartPositioning Notes:

  • WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
  • Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,415 net contracts.
  • This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
  • The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.
  • The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.535.06.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.231.56.4
– Net Position:-18,70717,6421,065
– Gross Longs:138,222175,86733,066
– Gross Shorts:156,929158,22532,001
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.29.660.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.3-2.631.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Lithium Developer Lands Spot in US-Japan Critical Minerals Partnership

Source: Streetwise Reports (4/8/26) 

Atlas Lithium Corp.’s (ATLX:NASDAQ) Neves Project in Brazil is being considered for financial backing by Japan and the U.S. governments.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) announced that its wholly-owned Neves Project in Brazil’s Lithium Valley has been highlighted in the Joint Fact Sheet for Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Project Cooperation, according to a release on April 2.

This document, unveiled on March 20, by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry in collaboration with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, marks the Neves Project as the sole Brazil-based lithium initiative recognized in this context. The full document can be accessed online.

The Fact Sheet indicates that the governments of Japan and the United States are contemplating financial backing for the development of the Neves Project. This announcement follows closely on the heels of the U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Investment Ministerial, which took place on March 14 in Tokyo involving key U.S. departments and Japan’s METI. Additionally, it comes after a summit on March 19 between Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump. Both nations have committed to an action plan aimed at fortifying the secure and diversified supply chains of critical minerals, building on a prior agreement signed in Tokyo on October 28, 2025.

“The inclusion of the Neves Project in the Japan-U.S. Critical Minerals Joint Fact Sheet, with both the U.S. and Japanese governments considering financial support for our project, is a powerful recognition of the strategic value of our assets and the progress that our team has achieved,” Atlas Lithium Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Marc Fogassa said. “Together with our strategic partner Mitsui & Co., we remain focused on bringing the Neves Project into production and supplying high-quality lithium concentrate to the global market. We are also proud of working with the local communities in bringing progress to an economically disadvantaged area of Brazil.”

The Joint Fact Sheet lists several projects that could enhance the critical minerals supply chain, including Atlas Lithium’s Neves Project. This inclusion is significant, especially considering Atlas Lithium’s strategic partnership with Mitsui & Co., Ltd., a major Japanese trading and investment entity. In March 2024, Mitsui invested US$30 million in Atlas Lithium shares and secured an offtake agreement to purchase lithium concentrate from the Neves Project, thereby linking the project directly to Japan’s industrial sectors.

Fraser Institute Jurisdiction Rating
Atlas Lithium Corp.

Brazil
(last modified 02/27/26)
Friendly Policies 75.17%
Best Practices Mineral Potential Index 77.78%
Socioeconomic Agreements/Community Development Conditions, aka Safety 25%
Political Stability 15%

Data from the Fraser Institute’s Mining Survey

Co. Takes ‘Critical Step’ Toward Production

In December 2025, the company announced that it is nearing the end of its search for a project management and construction supervision service provider for Neves. Situated in Minas Gerais, the Neves Project stands as Atlas Lithium’s premier lithium development endeavor, bolstered by a Definitive Feasibility Study with world-class project economics.

Atlas Lithium is in the process of selecting a firm that will oversee the planning, coordination, monitoring, and control of all construction activities at the site. This firm will ensure that the project adheres to the predetermined schedule, budget, scope, quality, safety, and performance standards. The company said it undertook a thorough evaluation process, reviewing five potential firms based on their technical expertise, experience with Brazilian mining projects, and their proposed management systems.

Vice President of Engineering and Project Management Officer Eduardo Queiroz emphasized the importance of this partnership, stating, “securing a top-tier project management partner is a critical step in our disciplined approach to making Atlas Lithium a producer of lithium concentrate in short order.” He further noted, “With our processing plant already in Brazil and key permits in place, we are methodically advancing toward production while maintaining our focus on cost discipline and schedule optimization.”

The lithium processing plant mentioned by Queiroz has already arrived in Brazil and is is now ready for assembly. Following assembly, pre-operational testing is expected to commence. Atlas Lithium anticipates finalizing the contract with the chosen project management firm early in 2026.

Furthermore, Atlas Lithium has secured all necessary permits for the Neves Project, which include installation, mining concession, water use rights, and vegetation clearance authorizations. The project plans to implement 100% dry-stacking for waste management, thereby eliminating the need for a tailings dam, and aims to recirculate over 95% of its process water, highlighting its commitment to sustainable mining practices.

Analyst: Co. Well-Capitalized to Achieve Commercial Production

On March 17, 2026, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko F. Ihle, CFA, maintained a Buy rating on Atlas Lithium and increased his price target from US$12.00 to US$12.50. Ihle cited the ongoing reduction of risks at Neves and the company’s advantageous cost structure as primary factors for the adjustment.

Ihle described 2026 as a crucial year for Atlas Lithium, noting the company’s focus on initiating Phase 1 of production at Neves, which includes the construction of a 150,000 tonne-per-year modular Dense Media Separation (DMS) plant. He mentioned that the company is transitioning from procurement to actual plant assembly and is also working on expanding its permits following a technical report in August 2025.

The analyst pointed out that Atlas Lithium appears well-capitalized to achieve commercial production in the near future, with a significant cash reserve and a manageable debt level. He also emphasized the company’s appeal as a potential merger and acquisition target due to its low projected operating costs and strategic location in Brazil’s “Lithium Valley.”

Ihle’s revised price target of US$12.50 is based on an increased net asset value (NAV) multiple, reflecting the project’s de-risking and a comprehensive valuation model that includes comparisons and financial projections. He highlighted the company’s strategic partnerships and off-take agreements as indicators of ongoing industry interest.

Finally, Ihle noted potential risks, including fluctuations in commodity prices, technical challenges in resource definition, and construction costs, which could impact the project’s progress and financial outcomes.

The Catalyst: AI Pushing Demand Worldwide

The AI industry’s expansion is significantly driving up the demand for lithium, primarily due to the increased need for lithium-iron phosphate batteries in data centers, according to Ivan Castano writing for Open Markets on March 18

These batteries are essential for maintaining a stable energy supply, crucial for operations like training large language models which consume substantial amounts of power. Unlike the smaller lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, these larger units are integral to Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). These facilities are becoming more common across the U.S. and globally, storing energy from renewable sources or the grid and releasing it during peak demand or power outages, thus ensuring continuous power supply to data centers.

The systems are also beneficial for solar energy providers, allowing them to store excess energy produced during peak sunlight and sell it in the evening, thereby stabilizing their income despite the intermittent nature of solar power. This shift is causing the lithium demand for energy storage to outpace that of the EV market. According to Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, last year saw a 51% increase in BESS demand compared to a 26% rise for EVs, although EVs still make up about 75% of the global battery demand.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

Retail: 47%
Insiders & Management: 26%
Institutional: 20%
Strategic Investors: 7%

 

*Share Structure as of 4/8/2026

 

The market dynamics are shifting from an oversupply and lower prices to a scenario of scarce supply and rising prices, lifting lithium out of a three-year price dip. Prices have soared 120% over the past six months, with significant fluctuations such as a 46% price spike in January due to low inventories before the Chinese New Year. Andy Leyland, founder of SC Insights, predicts a tightening market, stating, “The market is looking pretty strong,” and anticipates a 24% demand increase versus a 19% supply increase by 2026. This growing market tightness is mirrored in the futures market, where there is a noticeable shift towards using CME Group Lithium futures as a risk management strategy, reflecting the industry’s need to hedge against price volatility amid supply disruptions and the EV industry’s evolving purchasing strategies.

In 2025, the global lithium market was valued at approximately US$32.38 billion and is projected to expand to US$96.45 billion by 2033, advancing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% from 2026 to 2033, Grand View Research reported.

This growth is largely driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), which rely heavily on lithium-ion batteries. The automotive sector, in particular, is expected to see robust growth due to stringent government regulations aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, pushing automakers towards EV production.

Ownership and Share Structure1

As for ownership and share structure, management owns approximately 26% of Atlas Lithium common shares. Strategic partner Mitsui & Co. Ltd. has 7%. Numerous institutions hold 20%. Retail investors own the rest.

Atlas Lithium has 27.7 million shares outstanding. Its market cap is ~US$130 million. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–8.25 per share.


Important Disclosures:

  1. Atlas Lithium Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium Corp.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Oil prices have once again approached 100 dollars per barrel

By JustMarkets 

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.52%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.62%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.72%. The main driver of optimism was news that Israel is willing to consider negotiations with Lebanon. This eased investor fears of the entire region being dragged into a full‑scale war and allowed markets to enter a phase of confident consolidation near recent highs. Despite the positive sentiment on Wall Street, the overall atmosphere remains tense. Oil prices, once again surging toward 100 dollars per barrel, serve as a constant reminder that the Strait of Hormuz is still at risk of a complete blockade.

On Thursday, European stock Indices closed in the red, giving back part of Wednesday’s record rally. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) slipped by 0.15%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.05%. The shift in sentiment came after reports that the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran had already begun to crack. Tehran accused Washington of violating the terms of the truce, reigniting fears of renewed attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a prolonged energy shortage.

Silver prices posted a strong rally, reaching 74.5 dollars per ounce. This rise reflected investor reaction to the critical instability of the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran. Amid the renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp spike in oil prices to 99 dollars, silver regained its appeal as a safe‑haven asset. An additional driver was the weakening US dollar, which made precious metals more attractive for holders of other currencies.

The oil market was hit by a new wave of volatility: WTI prices jumped nearly 5%, reaching 99 dollars per barrel. This sharp rise almost erased the previous day’s optimism and followed reports that the two‑week ceasefire announced by Donald Trump was on the verge of collapse. Traders reacted instantly to news of increased military activity near the Strait of Hormuz and delays in tanker traffic, which brought the risk premium back into the market. Prices also received fundamental support from OPEC+, which reaffirmed its commitment to production cuts, and from fresh US data showing an unexpected decline in commercial crude inventories.

On Friday, US natural‑gas prices held at 2.67 dollars per MMBtu, the lowest level in a year and a half. While the oil market is shaken by uncertainty in the Middle East, the US gas sector shows remarkable resilience. The main pressure on prices comes from domestic fundamentals: oversupply and unseasonably warm weather, which meteorologists expect to persist across most of the US at least until April 24. The latest EIA report confirmed bearish concerns: gas inventories rose by 50 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding market expectations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.61%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped by 0.54%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.24%.

The Australian dollar confidently held above 0.707 USD, reaching a three‑week high. The currency is on track for its strongest weekly gain since mid‑January, supported by a temporary improvement in global risk appetite following the announcement of the two‑week ceasefire. Since the aussie is traditionally viewed as a barometer of global market sentiment, the decline in demand for the safe‑haven US dollar and hopes for de‑escalation in the Middle East provided strong support. Despite the optimism, the backdrop remains extremely tense due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If direct negotiations with the Iranian delegation fail and the blockade persists, global supply chains could be hit hard – instantly cooling demand for risk assets such as the Australian dollar.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,824.66 +41.85 (+0.62%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,185.80 +275.88 (+0.58%)

DAX (DE40) 23,806.99 −273.64 (−1.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,603.48 −5.40 (−0.05%)

USD Index 98.83 −0.31 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2026.04.10

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
  • China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
  • US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU (HIGH)
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

USD/JPY: Yen Fared Better, but Energy Rally Not Over

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY traded at 159.16 on Friday. The yen is retreating slightly but appears less weak than previously, amid a two-week truce between the US and Iran. The decline in oil prices following the announcement of the truce has partially reduced stagflationary risks and provided some support to the Japanese currency.

Investor focus is on the upcoming talks in Islamabad, where Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation. Meetings with the Iranian side are expected to clarify the prospects for further de-escalation.

However, sentiment remains subdued. Continued strikes in the region and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to put the fragile truce at risk, driving ** market uncertainty.

The yen has remained under pressure since the conflict began, losing approximately 2%. Investors are factoring in rising energy prices, which add to inflationary pressures while dampening Japan’s growth outlook.

The market is now awaiting signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ahead of the 28 April meeting, which could set the future direction of monetary policy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 158.85 level, currently extending up to 159.30. A move higher towards 159.85 (testing from below) is expected today. Subsequently, a potential decline towards the 157.72 level will be considered. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing upwards from low levels.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming a wave of growth towards the 159.82 level. A wave extension to the 160.00 level is possible. Thereafter, a downward wave to at least 158.85 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has stabilised as the yen shows tentative signs of recovery, benefiting from the temporary truce between the US and Iran and the resulting pullback in oil prices. However, the fragility of the ceasefire – underscored by continued strikes and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – means that energy-driven risks remain very much alive. The yen has lost approximately 2% since the conflict began, and market attention now turns to upcoming diplomatic talks in Islamabad and BOJ Governor Ueda’s signals ahead of the 28 April policy meeting. Technically, a short-term bounce in USD/JPY appears likely, but the broader trajectory will depend on whether de-escalation holds or tensions reignite.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Stock indices surged sharply amid the 14‑day ceasefire in the Middle East

By JustMarkets 

On Wednesday, the US stock indices staged a historic rally: the Dow Jones jumped more than 1,300 points, marking its best performance in a year. Investors ignored the Federal Reserve’s warnings about stagflation risks and focused instead on what many called a “diplomatic miracle” – the White House’s readiness for direct negotiations with Iran. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 2.58%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.51%. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up 2.80%. Despite ongoing pockets of conflict in Lebanon and the Persian Gulf, the market appears confident in the stability of the 14‑day ceasefire. The artificial‑intelligence and airline sectors were the biggest winners of the day. Shares of giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta surged between 4% and 10%, as falling oil prices and stabilizing bond yields restored investor appetite for risk assets.

The minutes of the March FOMC meeting confirm that the Federal Reserve has shifted into a mode of “heightened readiness.” The introduction of a two‑sided formulation in the rate discussion is a clear signal to markets: the Fed no longer guarantees that the next move will be a cut. Previously, investors debated only the timing of policy easing; now the hawkish wing openly acknowledges the possibility of additional hikes if inflationary pressures, fueled by geopolitics, fail to ease. The fact that most participants see risks to both prices and employment underscores the real threat of stagflation.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened confidently, reaching 1.38 per US dollar amid a broad retreat of the greenback. Paradoxically, the loonie managed to rise even as WTI crude prices collapsed due to news of the temporary ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Normally, falling oil prices drag the Canadian currency lower, but this time the sharp drop in the US dollar index to a four‑week low proved to be the dominant factor, giving the loonie a net gain for the session. However, the Canadian dollar still looks weaker than currencies such as the Australian dollar and the British pound, which are less dependent on the energy sector and recover more quickly when risk appetite returns. For the Bank of Canada, the current situation creates a complex backdrop: a stronger currency helps contain imported inflation, but a sharp decline in oil revenues could negatively affect the country’s trade balance in the long run.

On Wednesday, European markets experienced a true triumph: indices soared to monthly highs. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 5.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 4.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 3.94%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 2.51%. The decisive factor was the 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which allowed the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp drop in oil and natural‑gas prices in Europe became a powerful catalyst for the industrial and banking sectors. Lower energy costs immediately improved margin outlooks for giants such as Siemens, Safran, and Schneider, whose shares surged more than 10%. The banking sector, represented by Santander, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, gained around 8% amid bond‑market stabilization and falling yields.

The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened to 0.789 per US dollar, reaching a two‑week high. This movement resulted from a paradoxical combination of factors: declining global demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset and Switzerland’s own inflation dynamics. Under normal conditions, a strong franc effectively restrains inflation by making imports cheaper. However, the current scale of the energy crisis is so severe that the currency buffer is no longer sufficient. This creates a unique situation in which rising energy prices fully offset the deflationary impact of a strong national currency. For the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the current environment suggests a pause in active policy measures.

On Thursday, WTI crude prices staged a sharp rebound, rising more than 2% to 97 dollars per barrel. The market quickly realized that the triumphant ceasefire headlines had collided with harsh reality: the “silence window” was already at risk of collapsing within the first 24 hours. Renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon triggered a heated dispute over the boundaries of the agreement. Tehran insists that Lebanon is part of the deal, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump confirmed that the campaign against Hezbollah is not included in the US-Iran arrangement. Nevertheless, hope for diplomacy remains. US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is leading the American delegation, is heading to Islamabad for direct talks with Iranian representatives this weekend.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 5.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 2.84%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 3.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed by 2.55%.

The offshore yuan (CNH) is holding at 6.83 per US dollar, hovering near a three‑year high. The resilience of the Chinese currency amid global volatility is explained by Beijing’s unique position: the yuan has strengthened by 1% over the past month and by 2.4% since the beginning of the year. Investors view China as a relative “safe harbor” thanks to its massive oil reserves and stable energy‑supply chains, which have proven less vulnerable to the Middle East crisis than those of other Asian economies. Market attention is now shifting to China’s macroeconomic data, which will be released on Friday. Consumer inflation (CPI) is expected to show moderate growth around 1.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) may return to annual growth for the first time since 2022. If these projections are confirmed, it would signal a recovery in domestic demand and industrial activity, giving the People’s Bank of China more room for maneuver.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,782.81 +165.96 (+2.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 47,909.92 +1,325.46 (+2.85%)

DAX (DE40) 24,080.63 +1,159.04 (+5.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,608.88 +260.09 (+2.51%)

USD Index 99.03 −0.83 (−0.83%)

News feed for: 2026.04.09

  • German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
  • Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
  • US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
  • US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.