InvestMacro

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 1.05% (-1.15% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.43% (-0.38% for the week). The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.30% (+0.51% for the week). The primary blow was a “hot” Producer Price Index (PPI) report, where the core figure jumped by 0.8%, confirming that companies are actively passing increased tariff costs onto consumers. This sharply reduced the chances of Fed easing, and the escalation in the Persian Gulf added fuel to the fire, sending oil prices and inflation expectations skyrocketing.

Market tranquility was shattered over the weekend. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military operation, “Epic Fury,” against Iran. In response, Tehran launched missile strikes on US bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As up to 30% of global seaborne oil trade passes through this route, experts predict oil prices could jump to $100 per barrel. This creates a risk of a new wave of stagflation for Europe and other nations.

European equity markets mostly rose. The German (DE40) fell 0.02% (+0.86% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.47% (+1.29% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.73% (+0.73% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.59% (+2.31% for the week). However, European exchanges opened with a crash. Markets are reacting to the critical escalation in the Middle East: the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have threatened Europe’s energy security. Amid record-low gas reserves in underground storage facilities, the spike in energy prices intensifies stagflation risks, forcing investors to price in a more hawkish ECB policy. The macroeconomic backdrop remains concerning: while inflation in Germany slowed in February, its acceleration in France and Spain gives the regulator little cause for optimism. Money markets now price the probability of a rate cut by year-end at just 30%.

Palladium (XPD) prices jumped above $1,800 per ounce, reaching a monthly high amid the large-scale military conflict in the Middle East. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric regarding the continuation of Operation “Epic Fury” triggered panic buying of precious metals. Geopolitical chaos has collided with an acute supply deficit: production disruptions in South Africa and the risk of new sanctions against Russian exports (which account for about 40% of the global market) threaten long-term supply chain ruptures for the automotive industry. Future price dynamics will depend on dollar stability and Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report. If the US labor market remains strong, the dollar will continue to rise, potentially limiting the palladium rally.

WTI oil prices jumped over 6%, settling above $71 per barrel (after a brief 10% spike). This is an eight-month high triggered by the start of Operation “Epic Fury” – unprecedented strikes by the US and Israel on Iran on February 28. Markets are pricing in the risk of a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supplies flow. Against the backdrop of the escalation, the OPEC+ decision made on Sunday appears extremely cautious: the alliance will increase production in April by only 206,000 barrels per day. This is half the previously discussed volume (up to 548,000 bpd) and clearly insufficient to offset the potential loss of Iranian exports. Investors await the US market open, where a supply deficit combined with a rising geopolitical premium could push quotes to the $80-85 level as early as this week.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 3.60% for the week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell 1.47%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 1.30%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive 5-day result of 1.03%.

The Hang Seng Index plunged 667 points (-2.5%), hitting a six-week low. The sell-off was triggered by the sharp escalation of the war: following the deaths of three US service members, Donald Trump vowed “revenge” and pledged to continue Operation “Epic Fury” until Iran’s military potential is fully destroyed. The confirmed death of Ayatollah Khamenei and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatened global oil supplies, causing a collapse in tech giants and airline stocks due to fuel crisis fears. Mainland Chinese indices served as a partial counterweight, showing moderate growth. Investors are betting on the “Two Sessions” of the NPC starting March 4: amidst a new major war in the Middle East, the market expects Beijing to sharply increase government spending on technological sovereignty and the launch of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

The Australian dollar (AUD) fell to $0.70, completely erasing last week’s gains. As a typical “risk-on” currency, the “aussie” suffered from a global flight to safety (US dollar and gold). Direct Iranian strikes on US bases in Gulf countries and Jordan, alongside the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have jeopardized global supply chains to which Australia’s economy is highly sensitive. Domestic statistics added pressure: Australia’s Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 51.0 – a four-month low.

The US stock market traded mixed on Thursday. By the end of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.03%, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.54%, and the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.18%. The primary event of the day was the paradoxical reaction to Nvidia’s earnings report: despite strong financial results, the company’s shares tumbled by 5.5%. Investors began to harbor serious doubts that massive capital investments in artificial intelligence would pay off in the long term, triggering a chain reaction and a decline across other chipmakers. Amid the flight from the overheated AI sector, a notable rotation of capital toward more stable and defensive assets was observed.

Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.2 per dollar. The main blow came from new US tariffs: following the Supreme Court’s February 20 decision, the Trump administration introduced a 15% global import surcharge. This sharply reduced the peso’s attractiveness, as Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner with deeply integrated supply chains. The situation was exacerbated by weak labor market data: in January 2026, Mexico lost 8,100 formal jobs, marking the worst start to a year since 2014.

Equity markets in Europe rose sharply. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.45%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.72%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.19%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.37% higher.

WTI oil prices demonstrated a sharp reversal, climbing 1.5% to the $66.30 per barrel level. Earlier in the session, prices had fallen nearly 3% amid optimistic comments from Omani mediators; however, market sentiment shifted abruptly following a harsh statement from Tehran. Iranian state media reported that the country would not allow the removal of enriched uranium, a key US demand, placing the Geneva negotiations on the brink of collapse. The situation is heating up as the deadline set by Donald Trump approaches: the President gave only a few days to reach a deal, threatening military action otherwise. The market immediately priced in a geopolitical premium, fearing supply disruptions from a major OPEC producer. At the same time, fundamental factors remain bearish: Saudi Arabian exports hit a three-year high, and on Sunday, March 1, OPEC+ countries will discuss increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in April.

US natural gas (XNG) prices fell by more than 1.5%, dropping to the $2.82 per MMBtu mark. This is the lowest price level since last September. The primary bearish factor was the weekly report from the EIA, which showed an extremely weak inventory reduction of only 52 billion cubic feet (BCF). For comparison, in the same period in 2025, the withdrawal was 252 bcf, while the five-year average stands at 168 BCF. This dynamic led to a sharp shift in the market balance.
Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a decline of 0.38%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.44%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.51%.

Investors moved into wait-and-see mode ahead of the “Two Sessions” in Beijing (March 4-11), where economic targets for 2026 will be established. The main event will be the presentation of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), which will define China’s strategy for achieving technological independence and supporting domestic demand. The market is pricing in a budget deficit of 4% of GDP and a growth target of around 5%, which is keeping quotes from a deep correction.

On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) was holding near $0.711, approaching a three-year high. The “aussie” has become the top performer among G10 currencies in 2026 (+6% year-to-date), driven by the aggressive stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Following an unexpected jump in inflation, the market prices in an 80% probability of a rate hike in May, expecting it to peak at 4.10%. Next week, traders’ attention will shift to GDP data and manufacturing PMI indices. If the economy proves resilient to high rates, the Australian dollar could consolidate above the 0.72 level.

The US stock market demonstrated steady growth on Wednesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) finished 1.09% higher. The highlight of the day was the Nvidia earnings report, which exceeded expectations for both profit and revenue. This served as a vital signal for investors: the “AI bubble,” much discussed in recent weeks, has not burst, and real demand for chips remains consistently high.

Equity markets in Europe surged on Wednesday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.47%, and the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 1.49%. The British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 1.18%, reaching a new all-time high. The primary driver of the rally was the banking sector, led by HSBC, whose shares skyrocketed 7.6% following a strong financial report. The commodities sector also significantly contributed to the index’s growth amid rising prices for copper and metals.

Banking analysts predict stability for the Swiss franc (CHF) in the short term, viewing it as the ultimate safe-haven asset amid trade wars and geopolitical chaos. Switzerland’s strong fiscal indicators and current account surplus make the franc resilient to market shocks. However, this strength poses serious challenges for the domestic economy. Inflation in Switzerland sits at a critically low level (0.1%), effectively signaling a risk of deflation. Consequently, the SNB may either move to cut rates into negative territory or, more likely, conduct currency interventions by selling the franc to curb its exchange rate.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG) jumped more than 3%, closely approaching the psychological mark of $90 per ounce. The growth was driven by a confluence of factors: the implementation of the US 10% tariff, threats to raise it to 15%, and preparations for the decisive round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Investors returned to silver as a hedge against trade war risks and potential escalation in the Middle East.

Platinum prices (XPT) are trading above $2,300 per ounce on Thursday, hitting a four-week high. The precious metals market remains on edge due to large-scale US sanctions against 30 Iranian entities and the largest US military buildup in the Persian Gulf since 2003. Investors are utilizing platinum as a defensive asset ahead of the crucial Geneva talks, fearing that a diplomatic failure could lead to direct military conflict. Fundamentally, platinum is supported by the “substitution effect” for palladium and a chronic supply deficit from South Africa.

WTI oil prices accelerated their decline on Wednesday, dropping to $65.35 per barrel. The primary bearish factor was the EIA report, which recorded a shocking increase in crude oil inventories of 15.99 million barrels for the week. This is the largest build in three years, exceeding analyst expectations tenfold and neutralizing concerns regarding a supply deficit.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 2.20%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.65%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.66%. The Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.17%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made a powerful move to 0.713 USD, reaching its highest levels since August 2022. Markets are nearly certain of an RBA rate hike to 4.10% (with an 80% probability for a May move) after January inflation figures unpleasantly surprised the regulator. The “aussie” currently looks like the favorite among G10 currencies as Australian government bond yields are rising faster than their US counterparts.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) climbed above the 0.60 USD mark on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of gains. The primary driver of the “kiwi’s” strength was a localized weakening of the US dollar: investors began to doubt the sustainability of Trump’s trade strategy after the Supreme Court blocked some of his initiatives, prompting temporary profit-taking on long USD positions. Nevertheless, the upside potential for the NZD is limited by the RBNZ’s dovish stance. Governor Anna Breman has signaled that the economy can recover without overheating, depriving the RBNZ of incentives to hike rates in the near future.

The US stock market demonstrated growth on Tuesday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.76%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.77%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.09%. The main driver of optimism was a shift in the perception of risks associated with artificial intelligence: investors moved from fears regarding the displacement of traditional software to a realization of AI’s potential as a powerful supplement to existing business processes. The true victor of the day was AMD, whose shares soared by 8.8% (peaking at a 14% gain) following the announcement of a massive contract with Meta. This deal, bolstered by warrants for Meta to purchase AMD shares, confirms AMD’s status as a serious competitor to Nvidia.

Equity markets in Europe mostly declined on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) edged down by 0.02%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.26%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.54%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.04%. After a sharp fall the day before, the market entered a phase of cautious anticipation. Traders attempted to ignore the negative backdrop surrounding the AI sector, drawing optimism from the strong news out of Meta and awaiting tomorrow’s Nvidia report, which will be a defining moment for European tech stocks.

WTI oil prices recovered to $66.20 per barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline. The market has paused in anticipation of the third round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva: positive signals from Tehran regarding a readiness for a deal are clashing with Donald Trump’s harsh rhetoric. The primary factor of uncertainty remains security in the Strait of Hormuz, as any diplomatic failure threatens the transit of 20% of the world’s oil supply. Additional pressure on quotes is exerted by the implementation of the US 10% tariff. Traders fear that an escalation of trade wars and a possible hike in duties to 15% will slow global economic growth, inevitably leading to a drop in energy demand.

Silver prices (XAG) declined by nearly 1%, reaching $87.50 per ounce. Mass liquidation of assets on Chinese exchanges outweighed the global demand for safe-haven assets that arose amid the introduction of US 15% tariffs and expectations regarding the nuclear talks with Iran. The silver market remains in a correction phase following the shock collapse of 38% at the beginning of the month.

The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell below the $3 per MMBtu mark on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level since October. The primary factor for the decline was updated weather prognoses from NOAA, indicating abnormally high temperatures in the Western and Central states through the end of February. Weakening heating demand at the end of the winter season forced traders to reassess the likelihood of a fuel deficit, resulting in a sharp sell-off.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.87%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) showed a modest gain of 0.14%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.04%.
The economy of Hong Kong demonstrated robust growth of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking its best performance in two years. Strengthening business confidence amid real estate market stabilization and the active implementation of AI technologies allowed the year to close with total GDP growth of 3.5%, significantly exceeding the 2024 result (2.6%). For 2026, growth rates are projected to remain in the range of 3.3-3.6%, provided that external trade frictions do not exert a critical impact on the logistics hub.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened to 0.70 USD on Wednesday, reacting to unexpectedly high inflation data. The January figure of 3.8% (against projections of 3.7%) and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% confirmed market fears: price pressure in Australia remains persistent. Amid historically low unemployment and strong wage growth, these figures make the RBA the most “hawkish” among major central banks. Markets now see a 70% probability of a rate hike to 4.1% as early as May, with the prospect of another move in November.