InvestMacro

On Tuesday, US stock indices traded without a unified direction. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.18%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 0.10%. On Wednesday, index futures moved into positive territory, catalyzed by the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran, which restored investor appetite for risk.

In the corporate sector, performance was mixed: while giants like Nvidia and AMD declined amid broad pessimism, Apple plunged 4% due to production issues with its foldable iPhone. Meanwhile, Broadcom shares jumped 4.5% thanks to a strategic contract with Alphabet, and Intel gained 3% on rumors of cooperation with xAI.

Inflation expectations in the US spiked sharply in March 2026, reaching an annual high of 3.4%. A New York Fed survey recorded alarming dynamics: expectations for gasoline price growth more than doubled, to 9.4%, the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive rally, breaking above 72,000 dollars and reaching a three‑week high. The catalyst was a dramatic shift in the geopolitical climate: the signing of a 14‑day ceasefire between the US and Iran just two hours before Donald Trump’s ultimatum expired restored risk appetite. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary halt to mutual strikes triggered a wave of short liquidations, pushing the price of the leading digital assets to new local highs. After a turbulent period and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in the year, March data showed stabilization and renewed net inflows. The fact that institutional investors have begun increasing positions again signaled to the market that the capitulation phase among major players has ended.

European stock Indices closed sharply lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.67%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.64%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.84%. The main driver of the sell‑off was fear of an imminent energy crisis in the EU’s largest economies: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s ultimatum pushed gas and oil prices sharply higher, leading to rising government‑bond yields and pressuring industrial giants. Shares of Siemens, Schneider Electric, and Airbus lost around 2%, as investors fear supply‑chain paralysis and a surge in production costs.

Palladium (XPD) and platinum (XPT) prices surged sharply on Wednesday. Such a rapid rebound became possible thanks to the sudden easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf: news of the two‑week ceasefire between the US and Iran triggered a collapse in oil prices below 100 dollars per barrel. This immediately lowered inflation expectations and revived hopes for a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve, leading to falling bond yields and a weaker dollar – ideal conditions for commodity price growth.

Wednesday was marked by a historic collapse in oil prices: WTI futures plunged more than 15%, breaking below 95 dollars per barrel. The massive sell‑off was a direct reaction to the abrupt de‑escalation in the Persian Gulf. Donald Trump’s decision to transform his hardline ultimatum into a “bilateral ceasefire” for 14 days, and his acknowledgment that Iran’s 10‑point proposal is a “real basis for negotiations”, instantly removed the enormous geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated in recent weeks. A key factor for global energy security was Tehran’s commitment to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For the global economy, this drop in oil prices below 95 dollars is a powerful deflationary stimulus. If the two‑week window allows the parties to finalize a deal, fears of global recession and uncontrolled fuel inflation may give way to a cycle of business activity recovery. However, investors remain cautious, recognizing that Iran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with its armed forces could become a new tool of subtle pressure in upcoming negotiations.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.72% during the trading session, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.83%. Asian stock markets on Wednesday posted explosive gains, celebrating the unexpected diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The leaders of the rally were the Japanese and South Korean Indices, which surged more than 5%, reflecting enormous investor relief after the world came close to a full‑scale energy war. Despite the euphoria, traders are closely examining the terms of the agreement. Tehran’s requirement to coordinate all transit shipments with Iran’s armed forces indicates that control over the key maritime artery remains a leverage tool in Iran’s hands. Nevertheless, stock exchanges in Australia, China, and Hong Kong supported the upward trend, as the risk of immediate disruption to global supply chains temporarily faded.

The New Zealand dollar rose to 0.58 USD, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks, after the Reserve Bank, as expected, left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.25%. The strengthening of the New Zealand dollar is also supported by the de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran. Iran’s agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the 14‑day ceasefire reduced the risk premium that had been weighing on commodity currencies. For New Zealand, whose economy is highly dependent on logistics costs and energy imports, the resumption of shipping reduces the threat of stagflation.

On Monday, US stock indices showed moderate optimism amid cautious hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.36%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.44%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed the session up 0.54%.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.39 per US dollar, taking advantage of a temporary weakening of the greenback following reports of a potential 45‑day ceasefire. Investor optimism is supported by news that Iran may shift from a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to a system of charging transit fees on tankers – a development that significantly reduces the risk of an uncontrolled inflationary shock. For the Bank of Canada, which keeps its policy rate at 2.25%, such de‑escalation provides a much‑needed breather, allowing the regulator to avoid emergency tightening despite weak manufacturing data (47.6 points) and ongoing pressure on the domestic sector.

European stock markets were closed on Monday due to the Easter holiday.
Silver prices (XAG) continued their downward movement, falling to 72 dollars per ounce. The metal’s dynamics reflect extreme investor confusion as markets attempt to navigate between reports of a possible 45‑day ceasefire and Donald Trump’s hardline ultimatum. Since the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” silver has lost more than 20% of its value, showing the worst performance among precious metals. This is due to its dual nature: as an industrial asset, it suffers from expectations of a global manufacturing slowdown, and as an investment asset, it loses to the US dollar amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes to combat energy‑driven inflation.

Platinum prices (XPT) remain below the psychological threshold of 2,000 dollars per ounce, trading near three‑month lows amid escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. The market is frozen ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline, set for 20:00 on Tuesday (Eastern Time): the threat of strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure has overshadowed the faint hopes for a 45‑day ceasefire. Geopolitical tensions and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are fueling energy inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter central‑bank policy and exerting direct pressure on platinum‑group metals as non‑yielding assets.

The oil market displayed characteristic skepticism: after a brief decline on ceasefire‑related headlines, WTI prices resumed their upward movement, closing above 112 dollars per barrel. This underscores that traders still view the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a more significant factor than preliminary mediation agreements. The market is now focused on Trump’s deadline, expiring Tuesday at 20:00: the threat of destroying Iran’s civilian infrastructure (bridges and power plants) shifts the conflict into a phase of total economic warfare. The current gap between futures prices and physical oil prices indicates an acute supply shortage that cannot be offset even by releasing strategic reserves.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.55% during the trading session, while China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) did not trade yesterday.

The Australian dollar remains under heavy pressure, holding near a two‑month low at 0.690 USD. For the “aussie,” a high‑risk commodity currency, the combination of an energy shock and potential military escalation creates an extremely toxic environment, only partially softened by last‑minute hopes for diplomatic mediation ahead of the ultimatum. The fundamental picture has been significantly worsened by domestic macroeconomic data: Australia’s March PMI fell into contraction territory for the first time in a year and a half, dropping to 46.6. Particularly alarming is the collapse in the services sector from 52.8 to 46.3, indicating a sharp cooling of consumer activity due to soaring fuel prices and overall geopolitical instability.

On Friday, US stock indices closed. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 2.00%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) finished the five‑day period up 2.48%. The upcoming week will be packed with critical data to help assess the true scale of the economic damage caused by the conflict. The ISM Services PMI is expected to be the first indicator to capture supply‑chain disruptions and rising costs. Particular attention will be paid to the March Consumer Price Index, where last year’s low base effect may trigger a sharp jump in the annual reading. Investors will also closely examine the FOMC meeting minutes to understand how the Fed leadership assessed the risks of an inflationary spiral two weeks after the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began.

The dynamics of the Mexican peso in early April 2026 are shaped by a tight link to global capital markets and domestic growth challenges. The currency shows extreme sensitivity to risk appetite: the inverse correlation between USD/MXN and the S&P 500 has reached a low level of 0.80, the strongest since 2020. This makes the peso highly vulnerable to any negative news from the Middle East. Mexico’s domestic agenda is shifting from fighting inflation to supporting a stagnating economy. Although consumer prices (CPI) remain above the 2-4% target range, the central bank cut rates at the end of March, signaling a priority on economic growth. February industrial production data, expected later this week, may confirm the negative trend following January’s 1.1% slump. Weakness in the manufacturing sector deprives the peso of fundamental support.

Analysis of the USD/CAD pair in early April 2026 reveals an anomaly: the traditional link between the Canadian dollar and energy markets has nearly disappeared. The correlation between the loonie and oil has turned slightly positive (+0.15), paradoxically indicating CAD weakness even as oil prices rise. The main driver is the overall strength of the US dollar, with a still‑high correlation of 0.60, confirming that global flight to safety outweighs Canada’s status as a resource exporter. Fundamental pressure on the Canadian dollar is intensifying due to troubling labor‑market data. After February’s loss of 108.4 thousand full‑time jobs and a rise in unemployment to 6.7%, investors are anxiously awaiting this week’s employment report. Weak numbers could cement expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada. The probability of a rate hike on April 29 is now below 10%, and expectations for policy tightening in 2026 have shifted to the fourth quarter, leaving the currency without rate‑differential support.

European stock markets were also closed on Friday due to Easter holidays. By the end of the week, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 2.42%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed to 3.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the five‑day period up with 4.65%.
WTI crude prices corrected to 111 dollars per barrel after an early‑morning spike to 115.5 dollars. The reversal was triggered by reports of a proposed 45‑day ceasefire between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, which could form the basis for a long‑term settlement. This diplomatic opening emerged against the backdrop of an extremely harsh ultimatum from Donald Trump, who threatened to destroy Iran’s civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not unblocked immediately. Tehran officially rejected Washington’s latest demands, maintaining the effective blockade. Adding fuel to the fire, OPEC+ announced over the weekend that it had approved an increase in production quotas to combat the global shortage, but warned that physical damage to regional energy infrastructure would limit supply long after a formal ceasefire.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.65%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a 1.27% weekly gain.

The dynamics of the Australian dollar in early April 2026 are shaped by a complex interplay of global risk aversion and domestic inflationary pressures. The currency remains highly sensitive to the trajectory of the US dollar (correlation -0.75) and the stock market (correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.62), making it extremely vulnerable during periods of escalation in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the traditional link between the “aussie” and gold has weakened significantly: after peaking at 0.80 last month, the correlation has fallen to 0.45, reflecting the unusual behavior of the precious metal amid the current military crisis.

Domestically, attention is focused on February household‑spending data. The Reserve Bank of Australia responded to strong consumer demand at the end of 2025 with two rate hikes even before hostilities began on February 28. Now, despite geopolitical instability, futures markets are pricing an 80% probability of a third consecutive rate hike, viewing inflation control as the regulator’s top priority even as global growth slows. From a technical standpoint, the Australian dollar appears oversold after falling to a two‑month low near 0.6835.

In early April 2026, China is pursuing a strategy of currency stability, deliberately avoiding yuan devaluation despite the global strengthening of the US dollar. Setting the fixing at 6.8880 – the highest in recent years – indicates Beijing’s desire to minimize the cost of energy imports amid the Hormuz blockade. As the world’s largest oil importer, China faces serious challenges for its industrial sector, yet high fuel prices are paradoxically boosting domestic demand for electric vehicles and solar panels, strengthening the country’s position in the “green” sector. The macroeconomic picture remains uneven: before the start of “Operation Epic Fury,” China was battling consumer deflation, but in February the CPI jumped to a three‑year high of 1.3%. Inflation data for March, expected this week, is outlook by Bloomberg to show producer prices (PPI) returning to positive territory at 0.5%, while consumer inflation stabilizes around 1.2%. These figures will be critical for understanding how deeply disruptions in Iranian oil supplies and US-Israeli military actions have undermined price stability within China.