By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (55,279 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (53,282 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (16,688 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (6,517 contracts) also having positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-272,311 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,826 contracts), the Fed Funds (-56,451 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-42,478 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,642 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
Leading the price performance over the last five days, the 10-Year Note rose by a modest 0.27% followed by the US Treasury Bond which rose by 0.20%. The 5-Year Bond was marginally higher by 0.17%, and the 2-Year Bond was a tick higher at 0.07%.
The 1-Month SOFR was up a tick by 0.03% while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged at -0.01%. The 3-Month SOFR was also lower by -0.06%.
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week.
On the downside, the Fed Funds (23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently while the next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (32 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (39.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (83.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (36.4 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (37.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-20.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.2 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.9 | 66.6 | 2.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.8 | 56.7 | 1.5 |
| – Net Position: | -231,181 | 212,864 | 18,317 |
| – Gross Longs: | 169,495 | 1,422,169 | 51,309 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 400,676 | 1,209,305 | 32,992 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 23.1 | 75.1 | 86.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -55.6 | 55.9 | -1.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.6 | 58.9 | 0.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.1 | 53.4 | 0.3 |
| – Net Position: | -734,430 | 732,874 | 1,556 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,560,490 | 7,900,000 | 45,620 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,294,920 | 7,167,126 | 44,064 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.3 | 77.5 | 79.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.1 | 20.1 | 0.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.8 | 61.2 | 0.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.7 | 54.4 | 0.0 |
| – Net Position: | -95,055 | 95,078 | -23 |
| – Gross Longs: | 275,903 | 851,086 | 171 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 370,958 | 756,008 | 194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.1 | 38.9 | 66.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 37.3 | -37.2 | -0.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.0 | 75.8 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.2 | 52.0 | 2.6 |
| – Net Position: | -1,234,408 | 1,125,715 | 108,693 |
| – Gross Longs: | 707,467 | 3,577,502 | 230,853 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,941,875 | 2,451,787 | 122,160 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.6 | 76.5 | 43.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.0 | -10.2 | -10.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.3 | 80.0 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.3 | 52.8 | 4.2 |
| – Net Position: | -2,157,242 | 2,019,604 | 137,638 |
| – Gross Longs: | 541,351 | 5,943,599 | 451,754 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,698,593 | 3,923,995 | 314,116 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 24.7 | 75.3 | 65.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.3 | -6.8 | -8.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.7 | 78.0 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 63.9 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | -877,853 | 806,961 | 70,892 |
| – Gross Longs: | 500,097 | 4,461,711 | 449,456 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,377,950 | 3,654,750 | 378,564 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.8 | 74.2 | 63.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.5 | -0.5 | -11.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.0 | 78.0 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.8 | 68.9 | 13.9 |
| – Net Position: | -100,029 | 236,624 | -136,595 |
| – Gross Longs: | 283,246 | 2,017,361 | 222,759 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 383,275 | 1,780,737 | 359,354 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.2 | 37.7 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 43.7 | -19.9 | -68.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.3 | 71.6 | 14.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.9 | 79.7 | 6.5 |
| – Net Position: | 6,425 | -147,788 | 141,363 |
| – Gross Longs: | 207,041 | 1,315,962 | 261,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 200,616 | 1,463,750 | 119,681 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.6 | 1.4 | 82.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.6 | -10.7 | 16.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.8 | 82.4 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.0 | 71.2 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | -275,188 | 253,624 | 21,564 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,460 | 1,860,075 | 197,124 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 428,648 | 1,606,451 | 175,560 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.0 | 39.3 | 37.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.0 | 10.0 | 3.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
By JustMarkets The US stock market rose on Wednesday. By the end of the day,…
By Daniele D'Alvia, Queen Mary University of London When a conflict escalates, financial markets respond…
By Analytical Department RoboForex GBP/USD contracted to 1.3350 on Thursday, with the pound remaining under…
Opinion -- Source: Michael Ballanger (3/2/26) Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his view…
By ForexTime Oil benchmarks surge over 15% since Monday on supply fears Spiking energy prices…
By JustMarkets The US stock market declined sharply on Tuesday. By the end of the…
This website uses cookies.
