The US Supreme сourt may cancel most of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Riksbank holds rate at 1.75%

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.48%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.37%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.65%. A positive factor for the market was the skeptical stance of the US Supreme Court regarding the case on Donald Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs,” which reduced the likelihood of their premature application. Against this backdrop, market participants cut their bets on the Supreme Court upholding the imposed tariffs. Further support for risk appetite came from stronger-than-expected employment data: the ADP report showed a moderate job gain of about 42,000, and the ISM Services PMI rose to an eight-month high, signaling continued economic resilience.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.41 CAD per US Dollar, nearing a seven-month low, amid the further strengthening of the US currency and heightened trade uncertainty. An additional factor was the announcement of the new federal budget, which will see the deficit more than double to approximately 78.3 billion CAD this year. This significant expansion of fiscal spending eases financial conditions but increases pressure on the currency amid an already weak macroeconomic outlook.

European stock markets grew steadily on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.42%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.08%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.64%.

The Swedish Central Bank (Riksbank), as expected, left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75% at its October meeting, adhering to a course of supporting economic activity and gradually returning inflation to its medium-term target of 2%. The regulator indicated that the borrowing cost is likely to remain unchanged in the near term. Economic growth in the third quarter was slightly above expectations, but the labor market continues to signal weakness.
The Swiss franc traded near 0.81 per US dollar, remaining near its maximum levels since 2011, amid increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will refrain from cutting rates in the near future. Simultaneously, softer-than-expectations inflation data in Switzerland renewed discussions about the possibility of further policy easing, which could theoretically return rates to negative territory. However, the SNB leadership is exercising caution, citing risks to financial stability.

WTI crude oil prices dropped to the $60 per barrel area. Concerns over excess supply and sluggish demand continued to weigh on the market. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories rose by 5.202 million barrels for the week – the largest increase since July. Pressure on prices is intensified by rising production from both OPEC+ countries and non-OPEC producers, fueling concerns about a global market glut.
Asian markets also declined yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.50%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) dropped by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.13%.

Australia’s trade surplus expanded to 3.94 billion AUD in September, compared to a revised 1.11 billion AUD in August, and exceeded the prognosis of 3.85 billion AUD. The increase was driven by a 7.9% jump in exports, primarily due to increased shipments of gold amidst rising prices for the precious metal. Meanwhile, imports rose by 1.1% and reached a record level, supported by an increase in the inflow of capital goods.