COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro 

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Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (19,006 contracts) with Natural Gas (7,474 contracts), Gasoline (3,009 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,238 contracts) also having positive weeks.

Leading the markets with declines in speculator bets for the week was Brent Oil (-5,306 contracts) with Bloomberg Index (-117 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent and WTI Crude Oil lead Energy Price Performances

The Energy markets this week saw mostly higher prices throughout as the Iran war has come back in full force and sparked higher prices, especially amongst the Oil markets. Brent Oil was the highest Energy market price performer this week with an 11.10% increase.

WTI Crude Oil followed that with an almost 10% increase as it rose by 9.27%. Heating Oil was higher by 6.75%, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 3.04%. Gasoline rounded out the gainers with a 2.25% rise.

On the downside was Natural Gas, which dipped by -1.54%.

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Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Gasoline

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Heating Oil (56.2 percent), Gasoline (54.5 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.0 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, WTI Crude (13.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Natural Gas (22.7 percent) followed by Brent Oil (37.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (37.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.4 percent)
Natural Gas (22.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (17.9 percent)
Gasoline (54.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (51.2 percent)
Heating Oil (56.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (54.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (53.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (53.1 percent)

 

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Bloomberg Index & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (44.3 percent) and Gasoline (15.4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Brent Oil (-28.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with WTI Crude (-15.7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-15.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-30.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-28.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-4.8 percent)
Natural Gas (14.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (4.8 percent)
Gasoline (15.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (2.6 percent)
Heating Oil (10.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (5.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (39.5 percent)

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Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 81,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 19,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,683 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	48.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	53.9	2.7
– Net Position:	81,689	-108,601	26,912
– Gross Longs:	310,182	896,294	77,077
– Gross Shorts:	228,493	1,004,895	50,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	83.6	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	19.0	-26.7

 

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Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -5,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,424 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	35.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	26.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-26,730	23,042	3,688
– Gross Longs:	54,045	88,993	9,598
– Gross Shorts:	80,775	65,951	5,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	57.0	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	33.0	-28.0

 

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Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -171,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 7,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,612 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	32.5	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	23.0	2.7
– Net Position:	-171,138	159,102	12,036
– Gross Longs:	295,206	545,825	57,672
– Gross Shorts:	466,344	386,723	45,636
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	80.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-10.6	-15.6

 

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Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lift of 3,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,985 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	40.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	62.7	3.8
– Net Position:	60,994	-72,805	11,811
– Gross Longs:	103,070	134,564	24,499
– Gross Shorts:	42,076	207,369	12,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	39.1	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-13.9	-0.5

 

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#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 1,238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,476 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	43.1	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	56.2	10.1
– Net Position:	9,714	-33,896	24,182
– Gross Longs:	48,267	111,776	50,273
– Gross Shorts:	38,553	145,672	26,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	34.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-7.2	-0.9

 

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Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,195 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.9	46.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	31.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-30,312	29,880	432
– Gross Longs:	103,130	90,367	458
– Gross Shorts:	133,442	60,487	26
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	17.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	47.0	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-44.2	-1.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.