By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (8,244 contracts) with Soybean Meal (5,505 contracts), Coffee (3,531 contracts) and Cocoa (249 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-53,805 contracts), Soybeans (-13,097 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,503 contracts), Wheat (-10,503 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,557 contracts), Cotton (-3,122 contracts) and with Corn (-1,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
The soft commodities price performance this week was overwhelmingly positive and led by Coffee, which rose by almost 6% on the week. Coffee is up by almost 37% in the last 30 days, and over the last 90 days, Coffee is higher by 6.54%.
Next, Cocoa was the second highest gainer over the last five days with a rise of 2.83%. Corn was also up over two percent with a 2.11% weekly rise. Soybeans increased by 1.71% over the last five days, Soybean meal was up by 1.44% and Sugar was rose by 1.19%. Lean Hogs came in next with a gain of 0.91%. Lean Hogs is now up by over 9% in the last 30 days and is higher by approximately 10% in the last 90 days.
Cotton rose by 0.87% this week while Wheat also saw a weekly rise of 0.48%.
Soybean Oil fell this week by -0.71%, while Live Cattle saw the largest decline on the week by -1.56%.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent), Soybean Oil (61 percent) and Soybeans (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.1 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.8 percent)
Coffee (63.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (52.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.3 percent)
Live Cattle (83.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (86.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.2 percent)
Cotton (6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (17.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.8 percent)
Wheat (29.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.6 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (13 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (11 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Soybeans (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-18 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Wheat (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.1 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (8.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (4.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-29.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (0.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.2 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.7 percent)
Cocoa (-3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.3 | 45.8 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.0 | 40.0 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -54,244 | 85,990 | -31,746 |
| – Gross Longs: | 344,492 | 677,221 | 128,809 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 398,736 | 591,231 | 160,555 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.8 | 70.2 | 69.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.8 | -11.8 | -1.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.8 | 55.4 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.4 | 40.7 | 8.3 |
| – Net Position: | -139,610 | 140,084 | -474 |
| – Gross Longs: | 170,080 | 528,585 | 78,302 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 309,690 | 388,501 | 78,776 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 20.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.5 | 15.4 | 6.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.4 | 37.9 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.7 | 61.0 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 38,517 | -40,893 | 2,376 |
| – Gross Longs: | 60,922 | 67,067 | 9,133 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 22,405 | 107,960 | 6,757 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.2 | 37.9 | 58.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.4 | -10.1 | 33.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.7 | 57.6 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.7 | 57.0 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | 8,323 | 4,933 | -13,256 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,365 | 498,887 | 50,276 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 145,042 | 493,954 | 63,532 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.6 | 45.4 | 77.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.9 | -6.2 | 10.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.6 | 45.6 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.2 | 52.0 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 33,880 | -40,372 | 6,492 |
| – Gross Longs: | 130,047 | 287,877 | 34,368 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 96,167 | 328,249 | 27,876 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.6 | 41.0 | 50.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -29.4 | 32.2 | -49.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.3 | 51.4 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.4 | 45.7 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | -48,959 | 34,371 | 14,588 |
| – Gross Longs: | 116,199 | 310,435 | 48,089 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 165,158 | 276,064 | 33,501 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.3 | 88.5 | 26.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.8 | -11.5 | -21.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.2 | 29.4 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.5 | 51.9 | 13.0 |
| – Net Position: | 106,678 | -86,840 | -19,838 |
| – Gross Longs: | 185,728 | 113,095 | 30,057 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 79,050 | 199,935 | 49,895 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.2 | 16.5 | 27.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.0 | -3.5 | 9.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.6 | 26.1 | 6.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.1 | 48.9 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | 91,584 | -85,459 | -6,125 |
| – Gross Longs: | 174,216 | 97,309 | 23,110 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 82,632 | 182,768 | 29,235 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 96.5 | 3.1 | 40.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.1 | -13.4 | -4.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.3 | 50.9 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.2 | 30.3 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | -51,334 | 52,788 | -1,454 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,171 | 130,797 | 12,610 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 121,505 | 78,009 | 14,064 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.6 | 94.9 | 11.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.9 | 14.8 | -10.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.6 | 47.3 | 11.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.2 | 58.5 | 8.0 |
| – Net Position: | 6,946 | -10,553 | 3,607 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,995 | 44,360 | 11,124 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,049 | 54,913 | 7,517 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.0 | 83.2 | 55.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.0 | 2.5 | 5.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.9 | 38.0 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 46.1 | 19.8 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -82,139 | 81,977 | 162 |
| – Gross Longs: | 125,788 | 171,475 | 32,927 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 207,927 | 89,498 | 32,765 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.1 | 72.4 | 55.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.1 | 9.0 | 14.9 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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