By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.
Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.1 | 46.4 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.0 | 40.0 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -70,940 | 93,769 | -22,829 |
| – Gross Longs: | 337,007 | 675,979 | 135,440 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 407,947 | 582,210 | 158,269 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 26.6 | 71.4 | 80.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.0 | -9.6 | 5.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.8 | 53.7 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.0 | 45.4 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | -74,738 | 75,802 | -1,064 |
| – Gross Longs: | 190,535 | 491,865 | 71,165 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 265,273 | 416,063 | 72,229 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.6 | 96.8 | 19.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.4 | 2.4 | 16.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.3 | 38.2 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.9 | 59.0 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 31,274 | -33,581 | 2,307 |
| – Gross Longs: | 55,237 | 61,582 | 8,434 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,963 | 95,163 | 6,127 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.2 | 44.9 | 56.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.1 | -1.5 | 24.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.9 | 56.1 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.7 | 56.2 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | 18,189 | -643 | -17,546 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,775 | 483,561 | 49,348 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 135,586 | 484,204 | 66,894 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 55.2 | 43.9 | 66.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.7 | -0.2 | -6.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.6 | 43.5 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.4 | 54.0 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 55,510 | -63,636 | 8,126 |
| – Gross Longs: | 142,575 | 262,931 | 34,031 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 87,065 | 326,567 | 25,905 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.5 | 29.2 | 58.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.8 | 6.6 | -21.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.2 | 52.4 | 8.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.7 | 49.2 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -32,896 | 18,769 | 14,127 |
| – Gross Longs: | 108,956 | 312,972 | 48,413 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 141,852 | 294,203 | 34,286 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 20.4 | 82.5 | 23.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.8 | -14.2 | -54.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.5 | 28.8 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.3 | 50.6 | 12.8 |
| – Net Position: | 106,277 | -85,211 | -21,066 |
| – Gross Longs: | 189,758 | 112,784 | 28,909 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 83,481 | 197,995 | 49,975 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.8 | 18.5 | 23.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.8 | -4.1 | 5.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.5 | 27.4 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.3 | 48.4 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | 76,068 | -71,664 | -4,404 |
| – Gross Longs: | 152,263 | 93,942 | 20,718 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 76,195 | 165,606 | 25,122 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.7 | 14.2 | 51.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.1 | 4.3 | 8.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.8 | 48.0 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.3 | 32.5 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | -37,606 | 37,534 | 72 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,460 | 116,539 | 12,245 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 105,066 | 79,005 | 12,173 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 14.9 | 86.2 | 23.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.6 | 7.3 | -1.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.4 | 45.8 | 12.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.4 | 58.9 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | 7,996 | -11,793 | 3,797 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,532 | 41,060 | 11,033 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,536 | 52,853 | 7,236 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.1 | 81.9 | 57.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.9 | 4.3 | -4.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.3 | 38.0 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.7 | 20.6 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | -78,782 | 78,683 | 99 |
| – Gross Longs: | 127,585 | 171,579 | 33,536 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 206,367 | 92,896 | 33,437 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.8 | 69.4 | 54.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.7 | 6.9 | 33.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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