By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.
On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.0 | 44.2 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.8 | 33.5 | 11.5 |
| – Net Position: | -129,457 | 157,267 | -27,810 |
| – Gross Longs: | 293,548 | 649,577 | 141,147 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 423,005 | 492,310 | 168,957 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.6 | 81.0 | 74.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.6 | 8.0 | -4.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.6 | 51.8 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.6 | 44.2 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -52,099 | 65,399 | -13,300 |
| – Gross Longs: | 204,179 | 448,590 | 62,405 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 256,278 | 383,191 | 75,705 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.3 | 97.4 | 2.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.9 | 13.3 | -8.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.5 | 41.5 | 4.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 62.7 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 31,133 | -31,971 | 838 |
| – Gross Longs: | 48,940 | 62,472 | 6,921 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,807 | 94,443 | 6,083 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.0 | 46.4 | 31.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.8 | 4.9 | -20.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.2 | 51.7 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.5 | 51.7 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | 15,294 | -82 | -15,212 |
| – Gross Longs: | 186,780 | 455,507 | 47,563 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 171,486 | 455,589 | 62,775 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.4 | 44.0 | 72.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.4 | 12.0 | 0.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 45.3 | 6.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.6 | 57.7 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 64,125 | -76,481 | 12,356 |
| – Gross Longs: | 135,739 | 279,001 | 39,591 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,614 | 355,482 | 27,235 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.3 | 22.6 | 83.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.3 | -14.6 | 34.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.9 | 50.4 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 42.1 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -79,742 | 55,787 | 23,955 |
| – Gross Longs: | 128,060 | 340,589 | 59,734 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 207,802 | 284,802 | 35,779 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 2.7 | 97.5 | 77.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.6 | 9.8 | -0.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.3 | 28.9 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.9 | 49.6 | 13.4 |
| – Net Position: | 104,445 | -81,860 | -22,585 |
| – Gross Longs: | 194,938 | 114,273 | 30,461 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 90,493 | 196,133 | 53,046 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.0 | 22.6 | 17.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.2 | 1.6 | -8.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.9 | 28.1 | 6.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.3 | 50.0 | 7.6 |
| – Net Position: | 82,803 | -77,017 | -5,786 |
| – Gross Longs: | 157,623 | 98,669 | 21,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 74,820 | 175,686 | 26,830 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 89.8 | 9.9 | 42.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.3 | -11.8 | -9.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.2 | 47.5 | 5.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.0 | 35.7 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | -25,083 | 24,866 | 217 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,934 | 100,515 | 10,668 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,017 | 75,649 | 10,451 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.5 | 78.9 | 24.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.4 | -4.9 | 10.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.5 | 41.2 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.1 | 57.9 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | 11,823 | -16,021 | 4,198 |
| – Gross Longs: | 26,360 | 39,587 | 11,035 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,537 | 55,608 | 6,837 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.0 | 77.6 | 62.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.8 | 9.8 | -21.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.5 | 37.5 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.3 | 20.2 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -65,521 | 71,099 | -5,578 |
| – Gross Longs: | 117,724 | 154,773 | 30,534 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 183,245 | 83,674 | 36,112 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 42.5 | 62.6 | 25.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 25.5 | -22.3 | -38.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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