Oil jumped to $76 amid the US attack on Iran. Iran is considering closing the Strait of Hormuz

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.08% (-0.88% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.22% (-0.55% for the week). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed lower by 0.43% (-0.23% for the week). On Friday, US Federal Reserve representative Waller’s statement that interest rates could be cut as early as July contrasted sharply with Chairman Powell’s more cautious, data-dependent stance. Shares of semiconductor companies such as Nvidia and TSMC fell more than 1% after reports that the US may revoke export licenses, raising concerns about global chip supply chains.

Retail sales in Canada in May 2025 fell by 1.1% compared to the previous month, according to preliminary estimates. This would reflect the sharpest decline in turnover since March 2023, indicating a stronger impact from US tariffs. This week, the Bank of Canada will get a fresh look at the country’s inflation data. Economists agree that inflation rose to 1.8% year-on-year last month. If these reports show signs of inflation slowing, the Bank of Canada may find an opportunity to cut interest rates to support the economy amid tariffs.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 1.27% (-1.01% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.48% (-1.52% for the week), the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) added 0.77% (-0.54% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.20% on Friday (-0.86% for the week).

The war between Israel and Iran continues, but only the oil market is reacting to these events. Last week, WTI oil rose by approximately 2.7% after a 13% rally the previous week. WTI oil prices rose to $74.7 per barrel on Monday, reaching their highest level since January. After the US became directly involved in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, fears intensified that Tehran could retaliate by disrupting oil flows from the Middle East, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is a major oil producer and exporter, and is located on a narrow waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. Iran’s parliament voted on Sunday to close the strait in response to US strikes, although the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and Iran’s Supreme Leader.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.10%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.49%.

On Monday, the Australian dollar fell to $0.640, reaching its lowest level in a month, amid a strengthening US dollar against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions. The US dollar strengthened after US forces struck three major Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, and President Donald Trump warned of further action if Tehran did not pursue peace. In Australia, economic data showed resilience despite external pressures. The manufacturing PMI remained at 51, while the services PMI rose to a three-month high of 51.3 from 50.6 previously.