By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,955 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (5,819 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Soybeans (-12,423 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (94 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Sugar (4 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (93.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.0 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.1 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (46.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Corn (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Soybeans (11 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (17.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.9 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.3 | 39.0 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.7 | 57.2 | 10.2 |
| – Net Position: | 468,724 | -377,274 | -91,450 |
| – Gross Longs: | 627,494 | 807,094 | 120,055 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 158,770 | 1,184,368 | 211,505 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 93.6 | 12.4 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.0 | -16.2 | -31.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.8 | 54.5 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.9 | 53.3 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -20,707 | 12,056 | 8,651 |
| – Gross Longs: | 205,612 | 538,441 | 74,611 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 226,319 | 526,385 | 65,960 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.0 | 93.8 | 30.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.6 | 17.8 | 6.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.7 | 37.0 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 7.6 | 71.9 | 3.5 |
| – Net Position: | 63,697 | -67,169 | 3,472 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,310 | 71,130 | 10,259 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,613 | 138,299 | 6,787 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 87.6 | 12.9 | 75.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.9 | -1.8 | 15.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.5 | 55.4 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.1 | 51.2 | 8.4 |
| – Net Position: | -5,642 | 37,594 | -31,952 |
| – Gross Longs: | 166,913 | 499,909 | 43,943 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 172,555 | 462,315 | 75,895 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.0 | 57.7 | 29.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.7 | -9.4 | -17.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.1 | 55.4 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.4 | 67.0 | 4.5 |
| – Net Position: | 55,168 | -65,153 | 9,985 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,887 | 312,914 | 35,495 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 69,719 | 378,067 | 25,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.7 | 30.7 | 52.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.0 | -28.6 | 32.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.4 | 50.3 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 51.0 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | -13,967 | -4,408 | 18,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 102,087 | 294,109 | 51,912 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 116,054 | 298,517 | 33,537 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.7 | 76.0 | 38.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.4 | -2.5 | -9.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.9 | 29.5 | 7.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.1 | 53.5 | 14.1 |
| – Net Position: | 113,424 | -88,275 | -25,149 |
| – Gross Longs: | 179,879 | 108,595 | 26,597 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,455 | 196,870 | 51,746 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.5 | 14.8 | 9.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 9.1 | -9.5 | -5.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.3 | 32.0 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.2 | 53.4 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | 73,220 | -67,641 | -5,579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 137,087 | 101,137 | 24,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,867 | 168,778 | 29,623 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 84.4 | 13.0 | 43.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 0.8 | 29.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.9 | 50.0 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.7 | 36.3 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | -42,565 | 39,238 | 3,327 |
| – Gross Longs: | 68,832 | 143,745 | 16,498 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,397 | 104,507 | 13,171 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.4 | 93.8 | 36.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.2 | 2.9 | 20.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.8 | 40.0 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.7 | 67.3 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 26,819 | -33,051 | 6,232 |
| – Gross Longs: | 40,947 | 48,369 | 11,236 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,128 | 81,420 | 5,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.3 | 60.1 | 65.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.9 | 9.6 | 3.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.5 | 34.1 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.9 | 21.9 | 7.7 |
| – Net Position: | -55,941 | 54,281 | 1,660 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,148 | 152,709 | 35,998 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 188,089 | 98,428 | 34,338 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.7 | 64.4 | 65.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.3 | -16.3 | -1.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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