COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,952 contracts) with Soybeans (12,802 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,666 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,090 contracts), Coffee (2,229 contracts), Sugar (2,033 contracts) and Live Cattle (312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-18,102 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,915 contracts), Cotton (-2,477 contracts) and with Cocoa (-497 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (90 percent), Lean Hogs (79 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (83.9 percent)
Sugar (0.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.8 percent)
Soybeans (54.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (62.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.7 percent)
Live Cattle (95.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (78.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.9 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.2 percent)
Wheat (4.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.2 percent)

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Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (33 percent) and Corn (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (14 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Soybean Oil (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-21 percent), Cotton (-11 percent) and Wheat (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (28.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (-31.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-41.4 percent)
Coffee (13.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.8 percent)
Soybeans (33.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (8.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-21.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.6 percent)
Cotton (-10.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.5 percent)
Wheat (-9.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.9 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 443,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 392,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	39.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	57.4	10.4
– Net Position:	443,875	-355,959	-87,916
– Gross Longs:	617,299	780,449	117,958
– Gross Shorts:	173,424	1,136,408	205,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	15.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-24.6	-44.7

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	54.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	51.5	6.6
– Net Position:	-29,434	25,746	3,688
– Gross Longs:	230,941	541,544	69,367
– Gross Shorts:	260,375	515,798	65,679
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	97.5	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.4	28.5	-10.6

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	29.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	70.7	4.0
– Net Position:	76,520	-80,705	4,185
– Gross Longs:	85,902	57,117	11,978
– Gross Shorts:	9,382	137,822	7,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-14.3	9.8

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	55.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	55.4	8.9
– Net Position:	31,351	3,608	-34,959
– Gross Longs:	182,713	482,192	42,015
– Gross Shorts:	151,362	478,584	76,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	49.6	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.2	-30.1	-50.2

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	54.5	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	64.1	4.5
– Net Position:	48,167	-53,893	5,726
– Gross Longs:	115,448	308,193	31,027
– Gross Shorts:	67,281	362,086	25,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	36.3	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-9.5	17.5

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	50.5	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	49.3	5.5
– Net Position:	-24,508	6,916	17,592
– Gross Longs:	95,385	292,582	49,507
– Gross Shorts:	119,893	285,666	31,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	80.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-5.8	-26.1

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 119,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	27.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	51.4	13.9
– Net Position:	119,044	-92,602	-26,442
– Gross Longs:	202,150	108,436	27,836
– Gross Shorts:	83,106	201,038	54,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	9.5	5.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-5.6	-12.1

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	33.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	54.6	9.2
– Net Position:	66,061	-61,847	-4,214
– Gross Longs:	123,796	101,493	23,441
– Gross Shorts:	57,735	163,340	27,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	18.0	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	15.9	52.2

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	49.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	35.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-42,428	39,929	2,499
– Gross Longs:	64,766	137,714	16,275
– Gross Shorts:	107,194	97,785	13,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	94.5	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	7.7	21.0

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -497 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	71.1	4.6
– Net Position:	36,968	-43,297	6,329
– Gross Longs:	49,950	44,471	12,017
– Gross Shorts:	12,982	87,768	5,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	49.6	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.7	-1.3	-3.9

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -91,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	35.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	18.1	6.6
– Net Position:	-91,111	86,289	4,822
– Gross Longs:	133,872	175,754	37,566
– Gross Shorts:	224,983	89,465	32,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	90.1	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	4.3	35.7

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.