By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,337 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,658 contracts), Coffee (4,235 contracts), Cocoa (3,376 contracts), Sugar (2,387 contracts) and Cotton (999 contracts) also recording positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets were Corn (-41,223 contracts), Soybean Meal (-37,962 contracts), Soybeans (-14,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,454 contracts) and with Wheat (-216 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) and Lean Hogs (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Wheat (60 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.
Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.5 percent)
Sugar (38.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (37.8 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.0 percent)
Soybeans (31.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (52.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.4 percent)
Live Cattle (56.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (74.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (67.1 percent)
Cotton (22.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (54.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.7 percent)
Wheat (60.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (60.4 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (47 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (33 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
There are no markets with negative or lower trend scores this week.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (11.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.5 percent)
Coffee (2.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybeans (22.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (33.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (49.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.0 percent)
Live Cattle (44.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (17.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.5 percent)
Cocoa (11.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.9 percent)
Wheat (10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.8 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.4 | 46.4 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.8 | 42.8 | 11.6 |
| – Net Position: | -5,152 | 56,118 | -50,966 |
| – Gross Longs: | 333,139 | 721,807 | 130,045 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 338,291 | 665,689 | 181,011 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 33.2 | 69.9 | 40.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.9 | -8.9 | -24.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.7 | 46.9 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.8 | 64.8 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | 105,473 | -145,332 | 39,859 |
| – Gross Longs: | 233,674 | 382,060 | 84,478 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 128,201 | 527,392 | 44,619 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.6 | 54.7 | 71.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.5 | -19.1 | 44.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.9 | 39.4 | 3.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 5.8 | 72.1 | 2.4 |
| – Net Position: | 66,950 | -70,175 | 3,225 |
| – Gross Longs: | 79,366 | 84,833 | 8,415 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,416 | 155,008 | 5,190 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 6.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 91.1 | 8.4 | 66.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.9 | -3.3 | 6.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.3 | 60.1 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.2 | 50.2 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -65,379 | 94,150 | -28,771 |
| – Gross Longs: | 154,755 | 569,890 | 48,476 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 220,134 | 475,740 | 77,247 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.1 | 72.0 | 37.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.8 | -22.4 | -16.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.1 | 48.8 | 6.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.7 | 60.2 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 52,805 | -57,777 | 4,972 |
| – Gross Longs: | 142,778 | 247,437 | 31,176 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,973 | 305,214 | 26,204 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 70.4 | 34.4 | 33.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.4 | -31.9 | 13.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.1 | 42.5 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.1 | 58.2 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 61,885 | -88,822 | 26,937 |
| – Gross Longs: | 147,108 | 239,351 | 54,329 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,223 | 328,173 | 27,392 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.8 | 42.5 | 77.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 13.5 | -15.1 | 23.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 41.7 | 34.2 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.7 | 49.3 | 14.2 |
| – Net Position: | 71,418 | -49,211 | -22,207 |
| – Gross Longs: | 135,289 | 110,888 | 23,845 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,871 | 160,099 | 46,052 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.0 | 62.1 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 44.3 | -37.4 | -42.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.2 | 34.2 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.7 | 45.3 | 9.0 |
| – Net Position: | 40,642 | -33,303 | -7,339 |
| – Gross Longs: | 127,041 | 103,001 | 19,861 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 86,399 | 136,304 | 27,200 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 74.2 | 25.2 | 50.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 46.8 | -50.4 | -12.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 49.8 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.3 | 45.7 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | -10,642 | 10,163 | 479 |
| – Gross Longs: | 64,409 | 123,139 | 13,752 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,051 | 112,976 | 13,273 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.9 | 77.2 | 19.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.8 | -17.1 | 8.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.5 | 33.9 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.1 | 68.6 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | 43,312 | -49,419 | 6,107 |
| – Gross Longs: | 57,763 | 48,384 | 10,781 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,451 | 97,803 | 4,674 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 54.1 | 42.4 | 64.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 11.6 | -11.0 | -3.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.2 | 36.7 | 7.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.6 | 32.1 | 8.7 |
| – Net Position: | -13,714 | 18,433 | -4,719 |
| – Gross Longs: | 108,406 | 146,209 | 30,075 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 122,120 | 127,776 | 34,794 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.2 | 39.0 | 32.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.1 | -11.4 | 5.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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