COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Corn

August 31, 2024

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (28,611 contracts) with Corn (16,762 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,011 contracts), Cotton (5,753 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,475 contracts), Coffee (2,749 contracts) and Cocoa (1,304 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-6,975 contracts), Soybeans (-5,373 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-1,853 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Soybeans (3 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Live Cattle (15 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Sugar (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (18.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.0 percent)
Live Cattle (15.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.7 percent)
Cotton (3.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (46.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (51.6 percent)


Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Corn (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (2 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-15 percent), Soybean Meal (-7 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Coffee (-4.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-21.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.7 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -148,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.9 44.4 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.1 32.3 11.6
– Net Position: -148,534 175,015 -26,481
– Gross Longs: 317,652 644,776 142,421
– Gross Shorts: 466,186 469,761 168,902
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.0 85.7 72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -9.5 -25.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.7 54.6 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.0 60.9 7.0
– Net Position: 47,915 -52,993 5,078
– Gross Longs: 188,930 453,498 63,531
– Gross Shorts: 141,015 506,491 58,453
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 18.0 81.2 26.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 6.7 -4.8

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 42.0 37.6 4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.6 73.9 2.5
– Net Position: 66,907 -70,522 3,615
– Gross Longs: 81,646 73,105 8,571
– Gross Shorts: 14,739 143,627 4,956
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 91.1 8.1 72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.0 3.7 4.2

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.3 63.8 6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 35.9 39.4 7.8
– Net Position: -184,266 198,947 -14,681
– Gross Longs: 108,772 520,608 48,554
– Gross Shorts: 293,038 321,661 63,235
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.1 97.9 74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.4 6.3 -7.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.9 53.3 5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.4 48.5 4.9
– Net Position: -29,793 26,191 3,602
– Gross Longs: 129,368 288,506 30,211
– Gross Shorts: 159,161 262,315 26,609
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.1 75.9 28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -17.4 16.4 -5.0

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 46.0 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.0 53.1 5.4
– Net Position: 17,049 -37,614 20,565
– Gross Longs: 118,177 244,382 49,070
– Gross Shorts: 101,128 281,996 28,505
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.4 62.8 48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.8 5.2 15.7

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 36.7 9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.8 44.2 13.5
– Net Position: 33,769 -21,555 -12,214
– Gross Longs: 97,052 106,439 26,856
– Gross Shorts: 63,283 127,994 39,070
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 15.3 96.4 24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 18.9 -10.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 38.1 38.0 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.0 31.5 8.7
– Net Position: -11,785 15,619 -3,834
– Gross Longs: 92,284 91,936 17,159
– Gross Shorts: 104,069 76,317 20,993
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 21.6 80.1 66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 13.0 -12.9 -10.5

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.1 49.7 5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.4 33.0 6.0
– Net Position: -37,075 37,777 -702
– Gross Longs: 56,934 112,860 12,938
– Gross Shorts: 94,009 75,083 13,640
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 3.5 96.2 12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.4 6.1 -1.7

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 39.0 31.3 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.2 58.3 3.2
– Net Position: 30,192 -37,450 7,258
– Gross Longs: 54,055 43,405 11,674
– Gross Shorts: 23,863 80,855 4,416
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 40.8 54.5 74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.1 0.2 16.1

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.4 35.2 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 43.7 26.0 9.1
– Net Position: -32,681 35,914 -3,233
– Gross Longs: 139,525 138,475 32,640
– Gross Shorts: 172,206 102,561 35,873
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 46.5 52.3 46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.4 -4.9 14.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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