COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (48,863 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (11,220 contracts), the Russell-Mini (7,827 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (288 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,606 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,331 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-2,038 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by the DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (59 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and Nasdaq-Mini (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (49.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (47.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (59.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (33.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (49.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (38.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (35.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (43.1 percent)

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Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (3 percent) was the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-15.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-8.8 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -61,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	45.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	30.4	7.1
– Net Position:	-61,035	63,589	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	76,905	189,466	27,000
– Gross Shorts:	137,940	125,877	29,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	49.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	17.3	-13.4

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	70.9	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.2	7.9
– Net Position:	-65,247	-46,099	111,346
– Gross Longs:	271,908	1,400,848	266,961
– Gross Shorts:	337,155	1,446,947	155,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	33.5	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	3.7	5.3

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	60.6	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	62.2	13.8
– Net Position:	-514	-1,345	1,859
– Gross Longs:	16,170	51,415	13,578
– Gross Shorts:	16,684	52,760	11,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	36.3	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.9	-8.1

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	52.7	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	60.1	12.2
– Net Position:	7,395	-18,260	10,865
– Gross Longs:	67,869	129,886	41,034
– Gross Shorts:	60,474	148,146	30,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	32.5	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-7.9	7.2

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	78.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	67.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-50,021	43,649	6,372
– Gross Longs:	59,883	327,132	26,052
– Gross Shorts:	109,904	283,483	19,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.5	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.0	-8.0

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	67.5	27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	38.6	19.8
– Net Position:	-4,901	3,918	983
– Gross Longs:	734	9,151	3,667
– Gross Shorts:	5,635	5,233	2,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	53.8	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	18.0	-7.1

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-24,818	17,870	6,948
– Gross Longs:	31,609	369,935	11,558
– Gross Shorts:	56,427	352,065	4,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	55.4	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.4	3.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.