By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the metals was Copper with a gain by 4,875 contracts followed by Silver with a small gain of 147 contracts for the week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Steel (-1,459 contracts), Platinum (-766 contracts), Gold (-496 contracts) and with Palladium (-268 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent), Copper (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) and Platinum (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above the mid-point level of 50 percent (over the past 3-years).
On the downside, Palladium (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (99.8 percent)
Copper (93.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (87.6 percent)
Platinum (66.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (68.8 percent)
Palladium (27.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (28.6 percent)
Steel (85.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (91.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (60 percent) and Copper (59 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with strong trend score increases.
Steel (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with lower 6-week trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.3 percent)
Silver (37.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.5 percent)
Copper (59.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.5 percent)
Platinum (60.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.1 percent)
Palladium (21.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (-4.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 53.9 | 25.7 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.9 | 68.7 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 201,923 | -222,758 | 20,835 |
| – Gross Longs: | 278,777 | 132,684 | 50,245 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 76,854 | 355,442 | 29,410 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.6 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.4 | 34.4 | 41.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.8 | -6.5 | 17.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.9 | 26.4 | 18.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.5 | 68.5 | 6.8 |
| – Net Position: | 53,359 | -74,028 | 20,669 |
| – Gross Longs: | 82,415 | 46,442 | 32,658 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 29,056 | 120,470 | 11,989 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.4 | 81.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 37.9 | -36.5 | 22.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.3 | 23.2 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.4 | 42.0 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 47,569 | -56,086 | 8,517 |
| – Gross Longs: | 144,590 | 69,560 | 23,259 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 97,021 | 125,646 | 14,742 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 93.1 | 7.8 | 72.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 59.1 | -60.0 | 37.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 64.1 | 18.9 | 10.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.8 | 47.8 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 18,241 | -23,614 | 5,373 |
| – Gross Longs: | 52,430 | 15,494 | 8,927 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,189 | 39,108 | 3,554 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.7 | 34.6 | 40.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 60.4 | -49.7 | -30.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.0 | 56.4 | 7.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 69.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 |
| – Net Position: | -9,034 | 9,024 | 10 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,414 | 11,759 | 1,599 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,448 | 2,735 | 1,589 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 4.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.0 | 76.2 | 42.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 21.5 | -21.1 | -0.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.1 | 82.3 | 1.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.6 | 72.0 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | -2,730 | 2,665 | 65 |
| – Gross Longs: | 3,119 | 21,291 | 364 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,849 | 18,626 | 299 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.9 | 14.8 | 39.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.0 | 3.6 | 10.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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