By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a bit higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (33,463 contracts) with Lean Hogs (12,790 contracts), Sugar (11,564 contracts), Wheat (7,658 contracts), Cotton (7,212 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,119 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,367 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,944 contracts), Coffee (-4,163 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,985 contracts) and Cocoa (-6,938 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (86 percent) and Coffee (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (54 percent), Cocoa (52 percent) and Live Cattle (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Corn (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (27.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (80.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (50.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.2 percent)
Cotton (85.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.3 percent)
Cocoa (52.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (59.1 percent)
Wheat (41.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (68 percent) and Live Cattle (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (45 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Cocoa (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybeans (-22 percent) and Soybean Oil (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (15.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.2 percent)
Coffee (2.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybeans (-22.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-7.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-17.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.7 percent)
Cotton (68.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.1 percent)
Cocoa (-29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-21.2 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.8 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.7 | 44.6 | 10.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.1 | 27.9 | 11.2 |
| – Net Position: | -232,604 | 250,628 | -18,024 |
| – Gross Longs: | 295,676 | 670,777 | 151,100 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 528,280 | 420,149 | 169,124 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.1 | 95.9 | 94.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.6 | 1.1 | 6.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.9 | 52.5 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.3 | 65.9 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | 103,254 | -110,952 | 7,698 |
| – Gross Longs: | 187,869 | 431,227 | 66,010 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 84,615 | 542,179 | 58,312 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.9 | 75.4 | 13.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.6 | -9.0 | -20.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.0 | 38.0 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.3 | 63.1 | 3.2 |
| – Net Position: | 51,700 | -52,424 | 724 |
| – Gross Longs: | 75,330 | 79,690 | 7,361 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 23,630 | 132,114 | 6,637 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.4 | 23.8 | 23.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.4 | -1.3 | -14.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.9 | 60.5 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.7 | 32.1 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | -191,232 | 202,950 | -11,718 |
| – Gross Longs: | 92,361 | 432,418 | 51,829 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 283,593 | 229,468 | 63,547 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 76.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.1 | 20.1 | 17.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.6 | 48.2 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.0 | 41.1 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -38,926 | 37,289 | 1,637 |
| – Gross Longs: | 107,981 | 252,660 | 28,265 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 146,907 | 215,371 | 26,628 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 19.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.1 | 6.7 | -2.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.6 | 52.8 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 32.1 | 40.5 | 7.5 |
| – Net Position: | -66,820 | 56,238 | 10,582 |
| – Gross Longs: | 80,930 | 242,674 | 44,952 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 147,750 | 186,436 | 34,370 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 3.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -22.8 | 24.7 | -30.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.6 | 34.7 | 10.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.0 | 54.6 | 11.9 |
| – Net Position: | 65,999 | -60,465 | -5,534 |
| – Gross Longs: | 114,745 | 105,811 | 30,732 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 48,746 | 166,276 | 36,266 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.1 | 48.8 | 60.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 46.6 | -46.2 | -28.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.4 | 33.8 | 8.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.5 | 44.0 | 10.2 |
| – Net Position: | 29,286 | -24,985 | -4,301 |
| – Gross Longs: | 94,037 | 82,658 | 20,760 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 64,751 | 107,643 | 25,061 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 53.7 | 47.6 | 64.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 45.0 | -49.7 | 7.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 47.7 | 30.3 | 6.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.1 | 71.8 | 2.8 |
| – Net Position: | 102,305 | -112,881 | 10,576 |
| – Gross Longs: | 129,750 | 82,407 | 18,183 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,445 | 195,288 | 7,607 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 4.7 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.7 | 13.8 | 80.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 68.4 | -69.3 | 68.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.9 | 31.0 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.3 | 52.3 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 41,188 | -46,871 | 5,683 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,552 | 68,544 | 14,358 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,364 | 115,415 | 8,675 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.0 | 45.0 | 60.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -29.6 | 25.6 | 30.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.0 | 36.8 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 42.9 | 25.9 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | -36,981 | 40,756 | -3,775 |
| – Gross Longs: | 123,166 | 137,340 | 28,974 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 160,147 | 96,584 | 32,749 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.8 | 57.0 | 49.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.7 | -9.9 | 16.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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