COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Nasdaq-Mini (6,209 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,162 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,489 contracts), the VIX (-5,347 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-175 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Stock Markets Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (100 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week and are at the top of their 3-year ranges. The Russell-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (72.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (26 percent), the Russell-Mini (14 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (38.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.6 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	45.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	29.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-54,540	57,042	-2,502
– Gross Longs:	70,187	159,581	28,032
– Gross Shorts:	124,727	102,539	30,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	25.0	83.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	14.4	11.4

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -225,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -36,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	74.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-225,962	142,194	83,768
– Gross Longs:	284,559	1,715,110	264,947
– Gross Shorts:	510,521	1,572,916	181,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	59.5	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	2.6	4.7

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	48.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.7	12.0
– Net Position:	24,410	-26,351	1,941
– Gross Longs:	39,325	52,040	14,936
– Gross Shorts:	14,915	78,391	12,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.1	-28.6	11.9

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	69.3	11.3
– Net Position:	39,251	-47,893	8,642
– Gross Longs:	94,317	156,086	41,844
– Gross Shorts:	55,066	203,979	33,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-24.3	13.6

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	75.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	76.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,504	-1,488	11,992
– Gross Longs:	83,470	387,387	34,014
– Gross Shorts:	93,974	388,875	22,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	19.5	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-16.3	19.6

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	63.9	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.9	12.6
– Net Position:	-3,868	1,857	2,011
– Gross Longs:	1,931	10,736	4,133
– Gross Shorts:	5,799	8,879	2,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	47.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	0.4	23.8

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	83.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-29,562	24,171	5,391
– Gross Longs:	31,441	376,774	13,648
– Gross Shorts:	61,003	352,603	8,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	61.8	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.2	12.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.