COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets this week was Live Cattle (1,201 contracts) with Coffee (224 contracts) and Cotton (176 contracts) also showing small positive gains.

The declines were much great this week and were led by Corn (-33,142 contracts), Soybeans (-23,109 contracts), Wheat (-19,673 contracts), Sugar (-17,061 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,335 contracts), Soybean Meal (-7,921 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,272 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,193 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (83 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (65 percent), Coffee (59 percent) and Soybean Oil (26 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Soybeans (13.5 percent) all came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.7 percent)
Sugar (64.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (71.0 percent)
Coffee (58.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.5 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (26.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (30.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (78.6 percent)
Live Cattle (21.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (13.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.2 percent)
Cocoa (83.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (84.3 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.7 percent)

 

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (32 percent) and Soybean Meal (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-20 percent), Wheat (-19 percent) and Soybean Oil (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.4 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.2 percent)
Coffee (31.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (47.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (30.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (46.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-10.7 percent)
Cotton (-20.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-34.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.1 percent)
Wheat (-19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.8 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -157,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	34.2	13.2
– Net Position:	-157,148	175,160	-18,012
– Gross Longs:	251,194	616,045	152,623
– Gross Shorts:	408,342	440,885	170,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	12.0	20.4

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 205,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	69.8	5.1
– Net Position:	205,076	-249,605	44,529
– Gross Longs:	290,604	361,766	89,368
– Gross Shorts:	85,528	611,371	44,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	33.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.6	-6.9

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.7	4.8
– Net Position:	30,558	-32,407	1,849
– Gross Longs:	64,033	71,780	11,068
– Gross Shorts:	33,475	104,187	9,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.3	8.4

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	54.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.2	9.8
– Net Position:	50,697	-30,394	-20,303
– Gross Longs:	138,388	398,034	51,620
– Gross Shorts:	87,691	428,428	71,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	85.6	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-6.7	-12.7

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.7	5.3
– Net Position:	14,039	-19,288	5,249
– Gross Longs:	99,192	230,705	30,895
– Gross Shorts:	85,153	249,993	25,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	72.6	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	13.2	4.6

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 130,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	33.3	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	61.0	6.2
– Net Position:	130,628	-150,026	19,398
– Gross Longs:	174,164	180,980	53,313
– Gross Shorts:	43,536	331,006	33,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-31.0	2.3

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	38.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	51.9	12.6
– Net Position:	39,857	-36,327	-3,530
– Gross Longs:	78,406	105,202	30,770
– Gross Shorts:	38,549	141,529	34,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.3	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.5	39.7	31.7

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	39.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	25.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-25,276	27,193	-1,917
– Gross Longs:	54,404	76,877	18,358
– Gross Shorts:	79,680	49,684	20,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.9	94.6	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	9.5	-1.3

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 6,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.6	7.0
– Net Position:	6,184	-4,226	-1,958
– Gross Longs:	61,638	87,247	11,436
– Gross Shorts:	55,454	91,473	13,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.5	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	22.9	-40.8

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	25.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	50.8	4.4
– Net Position:	71,646	-73,777	2,131
– Gross Longs:	129,235	71,629	14,652
– Gross Shorts:	57,589	145,406	12,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	17.9	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	1.8	-19.4

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -97,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	16.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,204	98,645	-1,441
– Gross Longs:	114,707	164,692	34,939
– Gross Shorts:	211,911	66,047	36,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	24.6	-22.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.