COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was a big jump by the S&P500-Mini (73,363 contracts) with the VIX (1,351 contracts), the Russell-Mini (1,301 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (127 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were led this week by the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,651 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,280 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-749 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) were the leaders for the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (52 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) was at the lowest strength level and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)

 

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the VIX (12 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-19 percent) coming in as the next lowest market.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-51.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-52.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.5 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	40.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,594	26,058	-4,464
– Gross Longs:	88,500	163,682	24,682
– Gross Shorts:	110,094	137,624	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.3	2.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-9.4	-18.9

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	72.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	74.0	10.4
– Net Position:	10,185	-34,736	24,551
– Gross Longs:	282,604	1,562,074	248,407
– Gross Shorts:	272,419	1,596,810	223,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	35.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-16.8	-1.9

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	65.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	27.1	13.9
– Net Position:	-35,960	39,649	-3,689
– Gross Longs:	25,159	68,034	10,893
– Gross Shorts:	61,119	28,385	14,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.1	47.8	-20.2

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	57.7	14.3
– Net Position:	2,697	-4,366	1,669
– Gross Longs:	69,019	141,589	37,947
– Gross Shorts:	66,322	145,955	36,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	39.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	6.6	3.0

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	79.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.2	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,171	44,537	-366
– Gross Longs:	72,617	413,481	23,620
– Gross Shorts:	116,788	368,944	23,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-8.1	-15.3

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	70.2	24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	65.6	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,128	695	1,433
– Gross Longs:	884	10,754	3,688
– Gross Shorts:	3,012	10,059	2,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.8	40.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	9.8	12.9

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	82.7	2.2
– Net Position:	-30,499	28,700	1,799
– Gross Longs:	25,471	352,594	10,247
– Gross Shorts:	55,970	323,894	8,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	75.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-24.6	-11.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.