Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

July 23, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were a bit lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (38,670 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (26,943 contracts), the British Pound (5,666 contracts), the Brazilian Real (735 contracts) and Bitcoin (694 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,317 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,923 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,375 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,304 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,674 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-944 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the strength of this week’s moves in the speculator’s positioning of the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Large speculative Euro positions jumped this week by over +38,000 contracts and reversed a recent decline for the Euro positions in seven out of the previous eight weeks. This gain in bullish bets has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bullish level of the past nine weeks at a total of +178,832 contracts.

The Euro currency’s strength has been on display over the past few months as the EURUSD exchange rate touched a one-year high this week at over the 1.1300 level. The EURUSD did close the week lower after hitting the one-year high but is now quite a ways off the 2022 low of 0.9508 that was touched in September.

The large speculative yen positions also surged this week by over +26,000 net contracts and gained for the second week in a row. The yen speculator positioning has been quite the opposite of the Euro as the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy of no interest rate increases which has prompted speculators to have large bearish positions in the yen. The speculator position on July 3rd marked the most bearish level since January of 2018 at a total of -117,920 contracts.

The yen positions in the past two weeks have improved though and this week’s gain brings the current bearish position (at -90,239 contracts) under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time since May.

The yen’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar remains historically weak and in a downtrend in our trend model. The USDJPY exchange rate rose back over the 140.00 threshold this week (US Dollar strength/Japanese Yen weakness) after dipping below that level last week.

This upcoming week will be a potentially volatile week in currencies as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will have central bank meetings and announce their respective policy outlooks.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 41,045 37 11,067 43 -11,617 57 550 23
EUR 783,132 80 178,832 87 -229,343 13 50,511 60
GBP 265,766 77 63,729 100 -81,606 0 17,877 93
JPY 230,932 63 -90,239 16 98,195 84 -7,956 37
CHF 43,213 47 -10,211 28 5,927 55 4,284 72
CAD 146,171 23 521 55 -12,991 47 12,470 50
AUD 148,592 35 -50,401 38 51,045 57 -644 51
NZD 39,402 32 -3,626 44 938 49 2,688 82
MXN 238,006 51 94,492 97 -98,239 3 3,747 35
RUB 20,930 4 7,543 31 -7,150 69 -393 24
BRL 48,146 37 33,933 79 -32,196 25 -1,737 30
Bitcoin 15,455 73 -1,161 57 196 0 965 35

 


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (79 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (16 percent) and the Swiss Franc (28 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (87.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (96.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.0 percent)
Bitcoin (56.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.6 percent)

 

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (36 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (10 percent), the Japanese Yen (9 percent) and the EuroFX (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-24 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (7.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (36.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (32.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-35.6 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 66.8 19.5 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.8 47.8 8.9
– Net Position: 11,067 -11,617 550
– Gross Longs: 27,410 7,994 4,193
– Gross Shorts: 16,343 19,611 3,643
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.4 57.3 22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -1.9 5.6 -26.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 178,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.8 51.9 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.9 81.2 5.9
– Net Position: 178,832 -229,343 50,511
– Gross Longs: 264,514 406,328 97,050
– Gross Shorts: 85,682 635,671 46,539
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 87.3 13.0 59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.9 -8.6 8.0

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 50.9 28.7 15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.9 59.4 8.2
– Net Position: 63,729 -81,606 17,877
– Gross Longs: 135,269 76,229 39,762
– Gross Shorts: 71,540 157,835 21,885
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.9 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 100.0 0.0 93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 35.6 -37.8 31.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.9 73.8 12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 52.0 31.3 15.6
– Net Position: -90,239 98,195 -7,956
– Gross Longs: 29,776 170,491 28,148
– Gross Shorts: 120,015 72,296 36,104
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.4 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 16.4 83.6 37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.7 -7.6 2.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 15.7 42.1 42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.3 28.4 32.1
– Net Position: -10,211 5,927 4,284
– Gross Longs: 6,772 18,183 18,158
– Gross Shorts: 16,983 12,256 13,874
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.6 54.8 72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.5 -1.8 33.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.2 50.5 24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.8 59.4 16.0
– Net Position: 521 -12,991 12,470
– Gross Longs: 33,877 73,833 35,907
– Gross Shorts: 33,356 86,824 23,437
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.0 47.3 50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.2 -35.0 28.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.7 57.2 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 59.7 22.8 14.9
– Net Position: -50,401 51,045 -644
– Gross Longs: 38,252 84,937 21,539
– Gross Shorts: 88,653 33,892 22,183
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.5 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 38.1 57.0 50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.6 -12.3 25.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 52.4 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.7 50.0 6.2
– Net Position: -3,626 938 2,688
– Gross Longs: 13,193 20,654 5,117
– Gross Shorts: 16,819 19,716 2,429
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 43.8 48.7 81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.9 -4.5 57.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 51.6 44.0 3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.9 85.2 2.1
– Net Position: 94,492 -98,239 3,747
– Gross Longs: 122,811 104,617 8,638
– Gross Shorts: 28,319 202,856 4,891
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.3 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.8 2.9 35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.8 -6.2 -15.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.3 14.1 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.8 81.0 12.8
– Net Position: 33,933 -32,196 -1,737
– Gross Longs: 36,730 6,793 4,429
– Gross Shorts: 2,797 38,989 6,166
– Long to Short Ratio: 13.1 to 1 0.2 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.9 25.1 30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.9 -8.0 -10.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 76.6 4.7 10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 84.2 3.4 4.5
– Net Position: -1,161 196 965
– Gross Longs: 11,846 722 1,657
– Gross Shorts: 13,007 526 692
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.4 to 1 2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 56.7 63.9 34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -33.7 53.6 12.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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