COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

July 23, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (16,420 contracts) with Corn (12,059 contracts), Lean Hogs (628 contracts), Cocoa (6,373 contracts), Cotton (4,986 contracts), Wheat (1,708 contracts) and Sugar (2 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-2,570 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,657 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-6,592 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,768,189 33 206,099 17 -233,490 84 27,391 34
Gold 482,104 28 193,348 62 -213,715 41 20,367 31
Silver 146,863 36 43,862 81 -55,983 26 12,121 34
Copper 216,862 56 -3,550 28 -1,054 71 4,604 48
Palladium 16,017 100 -8,350 0 8,837 100 -487 12
Platinum 65,834 54 15,736 52 -19,674 53 3,938 21
Natural Gas 1,234,296 56 -95,762 34 65,084 65 30,678 53
Brent 128,248 2 -45,770 22 42,386 79 3,384 55
Heating Oil 331,790 49 21,392 67 -42,785 38 21,393 72
Soybeans 659,917 19 107,283 31 -81,463 69 -25,820 40
Corn 1,285,176 13 19,870 24 31,268 81 -51,138 41
Coffee 180,118 3 8,495 36 -8,052 68 -443 7
Sugar 881,020 44 196,306 60 -226,229 41 29,923 41
Wheat 303,407 10 -38,703 39 43,035 63 -4,332 58

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (60 percent), Soybean Meal (56 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Corn (24 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (26 percent) and the Soybeans (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (24.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.6 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (31.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (55.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (92.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (26.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.9 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (91.1 percent)
Wheat (39.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)

 

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (27 percent), Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Corn (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent), Soybean Meal (-3 percent) and Live Cattle (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.0 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.2 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (26.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (1.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.8 percent)
Cocoa (4.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.2 percent)
Wheat (36.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 21.1 48.6 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.5 46.2 13.5
– Net Position: 19,870 31,268 -51,138
– Gross Longs: 270,722 624,697 122,460
– Gross Shorts: 250,852 593,429 173,598
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.3 80.8 40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.0 -5.3 0.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 196,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.8 43.8 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.6 69.5 5.4
– Net Position: 196,306 -226,229 29,923
– Gross Longs: 280,498 386,226 77,931
– Gross Shorts: 84,192 612,455 48,008
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.3 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.3 40.5 41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.3 15.9 -19.2

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 23.4 47.0 3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.7 51.4 3.9
– Net Position: 8,495 -8,052 -443
– Gross Longs: 42,190 84,606 6,662
– Gross Shorts: 33,695 92,658 7,105
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 36.1 67.9 7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.1 24.0 -19.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 107,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.1 48.6 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.8 60.9 11.3
– Net Position: 107,283 -81,463 -25,820
– Gross Longs: 185,158 320,592 48,459
– Gross Shorts: 77,875 402,055 74,279
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.3 68.7 39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.8 -22.6 -6.3

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.5 56.2 7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.1 66.2 5.4
– Net Position: 41,627 -49,860 8,233
– Gross Longs: 91,700 279,250 34,970
– Gross Shorts: 50,073 329,110 26,737
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 42.3 56.8 44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 28.3 -31.4 44.2

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.2 37.9 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.1 62.0 5.8
– Net Position: 97,251 -116,636 19,385
– Gross Longs: 117,168 183,807 47,602
– Gross Shorts: 19,917 300,443 28,217
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.6 44.7 42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.4 0.6 22.7

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 104,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.7 29.3 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.0 54.7 12.6
– Net Position: 104,844 -89,634 -15,210
– Gross Longs: 154,268 103,445 29,170
– Gross Shorts: 49,424 193,079 44,380
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.0 13.2 4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.8 9.4 -38.4

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.1 37.9 10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.1 35.8 10.2
– Net Position: -4,061 4,462 -401
– Gross Longs: 63,838 77,936 20,508
– Gross Shorts: 67,899 73,474 20,909
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 26.3 74.4 81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.2 -24.5 -8.7

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 49.6 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.9 61.9 5.7
– Net Position: 18,481 -21,929 3,448
– Gross Longs: 57,414 88,259 13,524
– Gross Shorts: 38,933 110,188 10,076
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.6 75.5 36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -0.6 -6.7

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.2 27.9 4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.6 50.8 2.8
– Net Position: 76,488 -80,964 4,476
– Gross Longs: 145,705 98,622 14,265
– Gross Shorts: 69,217 179,586 9,789
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 98.3 1.4 41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.9 -4.9 1.6

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.3 39.3 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 41.1 25.1 10.6
– Net Position: -38,703 43,035 -4,332
– Gross Longs: 85,918 119,240 27,939
– Gross Shorts: 124,621 76,205 32,271
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 39.3 63.3 58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 36.9 -33.9 -33.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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