COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,606 contracts) with Soybeans (27,699 contracts), Sugar (23,508 contracts), Cotton (19,503 contracts), Wheat (18,148 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,416 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,048 contracts), Cocoa (1,406 contracts) and Soybean Meal (9,078 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Live Cattle (-9,538 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (27 percent) and Corn (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Coffee (36 percent) and the Cotton (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.3 percent)
Sugar (68.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (42.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.6 percent)
Live Cattle (81.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.3 percent)
Cotton (37.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.6 percent)
Cocoa (99.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (52.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.3 percent)

 

Wheat & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (47 percent) and Soybeans (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (23 percent), Cotton (20 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Sugar (-11 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (28.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.9 percent)
Wheat (47.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.9 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.2	13.9
– Net Position:	70,476	-6,966	-63,510
– Gross Longs:	291,631	622,624	114,321
– Gross Shorts:	221,155	629,590	177,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	75.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.0	-7.6

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 219,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	43.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	71.2	5.1
– Net Position:	219,814	-251,397	31,583
– Gross Longs:	303,615	397,188	78,190
– Gross Shorts:	83,801	648,585	46,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	32.9	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	14.3	-20.4

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	48.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.7	9.7
– Net Position:	134,982	-116,876	-18,106
– Gross Longs:	198,146	327,696	47,428
– Gross Shorts:	63,164	444,572	65,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	56.4	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-27.8	19.1

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	53.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	67.7	4.8
– Net Position:	54,043	-66,223	12,180
– Gross Longs:	100,146	258,123	35,174
– Gross Shorts:	46,103	324,346	22,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	48.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-28.3	55.0

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 106,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	36.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	62.8	5.2
– Net Position:	106,329	-128,326	21,997
– Gross Longs:	126,137	181,449	47,707
– Gross Shorts:	19,808	309,775	25,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	38.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-7.3	45.5

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	12.0
– Net Position:	95,306	-82,121	-13,185
– Gross Longs:	148,543	98,408	26,761
– Gross Shorts:	53,237	180,529	39,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	22.4	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	22.4	-7.8

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	36.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-3,013	1,455	1,558
– Gross Longs:	63,698	74,774	22,377
– Gross Shorts:	66,711	73,319	20,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	71.7	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-23.0	11.1

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	46.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	70.0	3.8
– Net Position:	37,984	-46,650	8,666
– Gross Longs:	69,370	89,362	16,115
– Gross Shorts:	31,386	136,012	7,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	58.7	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-21.6	30.7

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 77,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	27.5	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.2	2.7
– Net Position:	77,894	-81,340	3,446
– Gross Longs:	146,650	98,702	13,174
– Gross Shorts:	68,756	180,042	9,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.9	1.0	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.0	-8.3

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	38.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	30.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-20,555	27,401	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	90,416	121,245	28,164
– Gross Shorts:	110,971	93,844	35,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	50.8	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.1	-42.6	-45.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.