By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,606 contracts) with Soybeans (27,699 contracts), Sugar (23,508 contracts), Cotton (19,503 contracts), Wheat (18,148 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,416 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,048 contracts), Cocoa (1,406 contracts) and Soybean Meal (9,078 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Live Cattle (-9,538 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Jul-25-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | 1,743,598 | 31 | 225,196 | 22 | -250,976 | 80 | 25,780 | 31 |
| Gold | 476,176 | 25 | 173,639 | 53 | -198,210 | 47 | 24,571 | 42 |
| Silver | 146,898 | 36 | 36,925 | 71 | -49,718 | 34 | 12,793 | 37 |
| Copper | 234,713 | 70 | 1,159 | 32 | -3,904 | 68 | 2,745 | 36 |
| Palladium | 16,760 | 100 | -8,377 | 0 | 8,899 | 100 | -522 | 10 |
| Platinum | 64,197 | 48 | 15,487 | 51 | -20,441 | 51 | 4,954 | 34 |
| Natural Gas | 1,185,638 | 46 | -97,121 | 33 | 70,972 | 68 | 26,149 | 42 |
| Brent | 135,185 | 8 | -42,350 | 29 | 39,044 | 72 | 3,306 | 54 |
| Heating Oil | 324,610 | 46 | 24,498 | 72 | -48,468 | 29 | 23,970 | 81 |
| Soybeans | 676,643 | 22 | 134,982 | 42 | -116,876 | 56 | -18,106 | 57 |
| Corn | 1,280,207 | 12 | 70,476 | 32 | -6,966 | 75 | -63,510 | 24 |
| Coffee | 180,118 | 3 | 8,495 | 36 | -8,052 | 68 | -443 | 7 |
| Sugar | 911,185 | 51 | 219,814 | 69 | -251,397 | 33 | 31,583 | 43 |
| Wheat | 311,339 | 15 | -20,555 | 52 | 27,401 | 51 | -6,846 | 50 |
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Lean Hogs (27 percent) and Corn (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Coffee (36 percent) and the Cotton (37 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.3 percent)
Sugar (68.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (42.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.6 percent)
Live Cattle (81.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.3 percent)
Cotton (37.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.6 percent)
Cocoa (99.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (52.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.3 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (47 percent) and Soybeans (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (23 percent), Cotton (20 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Sugar (-11 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (28.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.9 percent)
Wheat (47.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.9 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.8 | 48.6 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.3 | 49.2 | 13.9 |
| – Net Position: | 70,476 | -6,966 | -63,510 |
| – Gross Longs: | 291,631 | 622,624 | 114,321 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 221,155 | 629,590 | 177,831 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.6 | 75.1 | 23.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.6 | -3.0 | -7.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.3 | 43.6 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.2 | 71.2 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | 219,814 | -251,397 | 31,583 |
| – Gross Longs: | 303,615 | 397,188 | 78,190 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 83,801 | 648,585 | 46,607 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.6 | 32.9 | 43.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.1 | 14.3 | -20.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.4 | 47.0 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.7 | 51.4 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 8,495 | -8,052 | -443 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,190 | 84,606 | 6,662 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,695 | 92,658 | 7,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.1 | 67.9 | 7.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.1 | 24.0 | -19.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.3 | 48.4 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.3 | 65.7 | 9.7 |
| – Net Position: | 134,982 | -116,876 | -18,106 |
| – Gross Longs: | 198,146 | 327,696 | 47,428 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,164 | 444,572 | 65,534 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 42.2 | 56.4 | 57.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 28.3 | -27.8 | 19.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.9 | 53.9 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.6 | 67.7 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 54,043 | -66,223 | 12,180 |
| – Gross Longs: | 100,146 | 258,123 | 35,174 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,103 | 324,346 | 22,994 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.5 | 48.3 | 58.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 23.1 | -28.3 | 55.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.6 | 36.8 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 4.0 | 62.8 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 106,329 | -128,326 | 21,997 |
| – Gross Longs: | 126,137 | 181,449 | 47,707 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,808 | 309,775 | 25,710 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 6.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.7 | 38.1 | 54.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.6 | -7.3 | 45.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 44.5 | 29.5 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.9 | 54.0 | 12.0 |
| – Net Position: | 95,306 | -82,121 | -13,185 |
| – Gross Longs: | 148,543 | 98,408 | 26,761 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 53,237 | 180,529 | 39,946 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.7 | 22.4 | 16.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -18.3 | 22.4 | -7.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.6 | 37.1 | 11.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.1 | 36.4 | 10.3 |
| – Net Position: | -3,013 | 1,455 | 1,558 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,698 | 74,774 | 22,377 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,711 | 73,319 | 20,819 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 27.2 | 71.7 | 90.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.2 | -23.0 | 11.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 35.7 | 46.0 | 8.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.1 | 70.0 | 3.8 |
| – Net Position: | 37,984 | -46,650 | 8,666 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,370 | 89,362 | 16,115 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,386 | 136,012 | 7,449 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 37.3 | 58.7 | 68.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.2 | -21.6 | 30.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.9 | 27.5 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.2 | 50.2 | 2.7 |
| – Net Position: | 77,894 | -81,340 | 3,446 |
| – Gross Longs: | 146,650 | 98,702 | 13,174 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 68,756 | 180,042 | 9,728 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 99.9 | 1.0 | 31.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.1 | 1.0 | -8.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.0 | 38.9 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.6 | 30.1 | 11.2 |
| – Net Position: | -20,555 | 27,401 | -6,846 |
| – Gross Longs: | 90,416 | 121,245 | 28,164 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 110,971 | 93,844 | 35,010 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.2 | 50.8 | 49.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 47.1 | -42.6 | -45.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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