Soft Commodities Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to multi-year highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (23,427 contracts) with Sugar (12,173 contracts), Corn (12,052 contracts), Cotton (1,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,041 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,002 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-18,802 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,767 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,350 contracts), Coffee (-1,945 contracts) and Wheat (-1,342 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa speculator bets and futures prices hit multi-year highs

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued rise in the Cocoa speculator’s bullish positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week by over +20,000 contracts and have gained for two straight weeks as well as for five out of the past seven weeks (total 7-week rise of +38,842 contracts). The Cocoa net positions has now advanced to the highest net speculator position level of the past 160 weeks, dating back to March 3rd of 2020 when positions totaled +73,970 net contracts.

Cocoa’s speculator strength score level is at the top of its 3-year range at 100 percent while its strength score trend (6-weeks) has jumped by 41 percent and illustrates its recent speculator sentiment strength.

The Cocoa futures price has been on a strong bullish run since hitting a bottom in September of 2022. This week marked a third straight week of gains and Cocoa futures touched their highest level since 2017 at over the 2960 threshold.

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Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Sugar (71 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (67 percent), Soybeans (52 percent) and Live Cattle (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Cotton (1 percent) and Wheat (11 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.6 percent)
Sugar (70.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (66.3 percent)
Coffee (44.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.6 percent)
Soybeans (52.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (67.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (77.2 percent)
Live Cattle (50.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (56.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.0 percent)
Cotton (1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (70.1 percent)
Wheat (10.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.7 percent)

 

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (41 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-30 percent), Corn (-30 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-28.5 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.7 percent)
Coffee (12.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-24.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-30.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-14.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-40.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-28.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.2 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.6 percent)
Cocoa (41.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.7 percent)
Wheat (-22.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	49.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	71,528	-12,518	-59,010
– Gross Longs:	317,171	661,172	112,429
– Gross Shorts:	245,643	673,690	171,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	70.1	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	30.0	18.2

 

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SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 222,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	37.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	66.4	5.6
– Net Position:	222,829	-275,157	52,328
– Gross Longs:	314,608	357,720	106,016
– Gross Shorts:	91,779	632,877	53,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	24.2	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	1.2	14.6

 

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COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	49.1	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.0	5.1
– Net Position:	16,751	-15,709	-1,042
– Gross Longs:	40,112	98,733	9,239
– Gross Shorts:	23,361	114,442	10,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	60.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-8.9	-33.3

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	45.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	63.0	10.8
– Net Position:	161,020	-129,321	-31,699
– Gross Longs:	204,717	326,718	46,723
– Gross Shorts:	43,697	456,039	78,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	52.1	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	7.1	17.3

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	58.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	56.4	6.4
– Net Position:	-7,608	8,146	-538
– Gross Longs:	68,222	270,893	29,443
– Gross Shorts:	75,830	262,747	29,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.7	24.9	-20.1

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	38.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.7	6.5
– Net Position:	114,541	-131,095	16,554
– Gross Longs:	138,126	159,905	43,573
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	291,000	27,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	34.2	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.1	30.6	-2.1

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	28.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	49.7	12.8
– Net Position:	64,698	-63,683	-1,015
– Gross Longs:	112,147	88,378	38,033
– Gross Shorts:	47,449	152,061	39,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	44.1	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	35.3	39.0

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	37.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	27.4	11.1
– Net Position:	-22,003	21,983	20
– Gross Longs:	64,990	82,478	24,503
– Gross Shorts:	86,993	60,495	24,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.7	1.5

 

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COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	50.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	44.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-10,121	11,990	-1,869
– Gross Longs:	50,893	99,934	11,070
– Gross Shorts:	61,014	87,944	12,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	98.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	17.4	-26.2

 

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COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	36.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	53.7	3.4
– Net Position:	61,273	-65,418	4,145
– Gross Longs:	121,238	135,582	16,709
– Gross Shorts:	59,965	201,000	12,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.4	-40.7	-6.8

 

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WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	35.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	19.3	9.6
– Net Position:	-60,545	60,324	221
– Gross Longs:	101,707	132,616	36,122
– Gross Shorts:	162,252	72,292	35,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	90.0	91.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	20.7	17.8

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.