Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (9,291 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (8,634 contracts), Australian Dollar (8,120 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,579 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,387 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-9,480 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-1,632 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-1,684 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,929 contracts), Japanese Yen (-3,061 contracts) and Bitcoin (-339 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop their Canadian dollar bets to 220-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Canadian dollar.

Large speculative Canadian dollar positions fell this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past nine weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -29,307 net contracts to the overall bearish position in just the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at -58,509 contracts) to the most bearish level of the past 220 weeks, dating back to January 15th of 2019.

Hurting the Canadian dollar’s appeal has been the recent pause in interest rate rises by the Bank of Canada (after 8 rate hikes previously) as well as the slide in the price of Crude Oil. The Canadian dollar’s exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a multi-year high in May of 2022 at over 0.8280. The CAD front month futures price closed this week at the 0.7431 exchange and has now risen for two straight weeks.

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Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (92 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Bitcoin (66 percent), Australian Dollar (60 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (59.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (52.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (42.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.7 percent)
Bitcoin (66.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.1 percent)

 

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (3 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Canadian Dollar (-20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (1.2 percent)
EuroFX (-8.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-2.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-34.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (71.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.8 percent)
Bitcoin (3.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (8.8 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.7	1.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	51.8	8.3
– Net Position:	14,106	-16,154	2,048
– Gross Longs:	25,574	473	4,703
– Gross Shorts:	11,468	16,627	2,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.1	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	0.8	-26.2

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 143,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	81.6	5.4
– Net Position:	143,393	-194,787	51,394
– Gross Longs:	225,416	415,104	91,568
– Gross Shorts:	82,023	609,891	40,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	24.7	61.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.4	4.2

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	59.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	55.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-14,793	8,881	5,912
– Gross Longs:	46,415	133,802	31,247
– Gross Shorts:	61,208	124,921	25,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	40.1	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-19.5	43.4

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -57,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	74.6	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	45.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-57,036	52,266	4,770
– Gross Longs:	11,523	133,327	32,150
– Gross Shorts:	68,559	81,061	27,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	61.2	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	2.6	35.8

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	53.9	32.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	24.8	40.5
– Net Position:	-8,003	10,822	-2,819
– Gross Longs:	2,958	20,038	12,249
– Gross Shorts:	10,961	9,216	15,068
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	62.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	-2.0	9.2

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -58,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,684 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	70.2	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	35.9	18.2
– Net Position:	-58,509	58,148	361
– Gross Longs:	16,607	118,790	31,176
– Gross Shorts:	75,116	60,642	30,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	12.5	5.8

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	53.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	28.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-27,233	36,837	-9,604
– Gross Longs:	46,687	80,257	19,523
– Gross Shorts:	73,920	43,420	29,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	46.4	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	8.8	-22.8

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	47.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.8	39.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-4,031	2,697	1,334
– Gross Longs:	14,280	17,050	4,501
– Gross Shorts:	18,311	14,353	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	52.8	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.7	27.6	12.6

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	71.1	1.0
– Net Position:	57,913	-63,177	5,264
– Gross Longs:	127,371	114,977	7,808
– Gross Shorts:	69,458	178,154	2,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.1	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	71.8	-67.7	-0.9

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.7	19.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	63.9	6.1
– Net Position:	14,003	-15,562	1,559
– Gross Longs:	24,576	6,964	3,704
– Gross Shorts:	10,573	22,526	2,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.5	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	20.4	-0.2

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	2.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	3.6	4.9
– Net Position:	-615	-183	798
– Gross Longs:	10,415	302	1,458
– Gross Shorts:	11,030	485	660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	50.9	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-27.6	9.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.