COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

February 25, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans


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The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-31-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,726,378 29 243,820 10 -266,622 89 22,802 37
Gold 471,642 16 160,281 36 -180,520 63 20,239 31
Silver 138,263 14 27,316 44 -40,434 57 13,118 37
Copper 224,824 61 17,215 50 -24,414 48 7,199 67
Palladium 11,245 34 -4,271 0 4,632 100 -361 20
Platinum 69,121 40 16,137 33 -22,213 65 6,076 49
Natural Gas 1,146,709 38 -169,214 24 134,013 76 35,201 63
Brent 156,929 16 -43,407 26 39,572 70 3,835 61
Heating Oil 265,444 22 21,747 74 -45,428 23 23,681 80
Soybeans 689,806 25 178,398 67 -137,153 46 -41,245 1
Corn 1,298,164 14 296,812 68 -225,622 40 -71,190 2
Coffee 221,894 29 -1,881 25 -926 75 2,807 39
Sugar 995,391 55 247,072 79 -292,448 19 45,376 64
Wheat 350,871 29 -40,060 7 41,564 90 -1,504 100

 


Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.4 42.0 8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.5 59.4 14.4
– Net Position: 296,812 -225,622 -71,190
– Gross Longs: 407,766 545,068 115,712
– Gross Shorts: 110,954 770,690 186,902
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 67.9 39.8 2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -9.5 -20.3

 


SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.5 39.2 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.7 68.5 5.7
– Net Position: 247,072 -292,448 45,376
– Gross Longs: 333,718 389,834 102,320
– Gross Shorts: 86,646 682,282 56,944
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.9 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.9 19.3 64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.8 -2.7 -5.6

 


COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 20.7 46.2 4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.5 46.6 3.5
– Net Position: -1,881 -926 2,807
– Gross Longs: 45,937 102,565 10,630
– Gross Shorts: 47,818 103,491 7,823
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 25.5 75.0 38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.5 -4.7 31.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.3 46.8 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.4 66.7 12.6
– Net Position: 178,398 -137,153 -41,245
– Gross Longs: 222,823 323,166 45,644
– Gross Shorts: 44,425 460,319 86,889
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.8 46.3 1.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.2 -14.8 -14.0

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.2 52.5 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.8 61.2 7.0
– Net Position: 31,371 -36,797 5,426
– Gross Longs: 77,553 223,986 35,438
– Gross Shorts: 46,182 260,783 30,012
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.5 77.0 33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -23.0 24.7 -22.0

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.0 33.1 11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.0 73.9 7.3
– Net Position: 157,830 -173,741 15,911
– Gross Longs: 174,746 141,045 47,162
– Gross Shorts: 16,916 314,786 31,251
– Long to Short Ratio: 10.3 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 96.0 5.7 15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 8.2 -5.3 -31.9

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 28.2 11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.9 51.5 12.4
– Net Position: 77,223 -72,958 -4,265
– Gross Longs: 126,874 88,274 34,568
– Gross Shorts: 49,651 161,232 38,833
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.6 to 1 0.5 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.2 13.4 65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.0 -27.2 -5.2

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.2 36.6 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.9 35.0 11.8
– Net Position: -3,594 3,412 182
– Gross Longs: 67,149 78,668 25,530
– Gross Shorts: 70,743 75,256 25,348
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -41.9 31.6 60.1

 


COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.2 47.6 7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 21.2 57.3 5.4
– Net Position: 16,905 -20,488 3,583
– Gross Longs: 61,398 100,108 14,890
– Gross Shorts: 44,493 120,596 11,307
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.2 78.7 33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 0.4 -1.2 7.0

 


COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.0 47.4 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.7 56.6 3.2
– Net Position: 25,159 -27,818 2,659
– Gross Longs: 93,440 142,793 12,252
– Gross Shorts: 68,281 170,611 9,593
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 41.7 59.9 23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 7.3 -5.9 -14.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.6 38.3 10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 37.1 26.4 10.7
– Net Position: -40,060 41,564 -1,504
– Gross Longs: 89,996 134,236 35,913
– Gross Shorts: 130,056 92,672 37,417
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 7.5 90.4 100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -2.8 0.5 13.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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