Stock Market Speculators cut back on their VIX bearish bets

January 21, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.


Free Reports:

Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.





Download Our Metatrader 4 Indicators – Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter





The only market with gains for this week was the VIX with a rise of 20,452 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Nasdaq-Mini (-12,482 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-4,787 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14,869 contracts), S&P500-Mini (-13,644 contracts),  DowJones-Mini (-1,471 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-1,106 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-17-2023 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini 2,056,472 4 -226,818 14 231,163 81 -4,345 25
Nikkei 225 14,138 10 -3,825 59 4,340 51 -515 22
Nasdaq-Mini 275,015 57 -20,633 64 30,544 45 -9,911 33
DowJones-Mini 82,660 46 -10,613 27 12,290 74 -1,677 32
VIX 326,900 49 -52,355 77 55,595 22 -3,240 76
Nikkei 225 Yen 37,043 14 7,971 59 -2,240 4 -5,731 68

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (77 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (59 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (14 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (16.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (29.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (63.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (70.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (34.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.2 percent)

 

VIX & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (15 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (8 percent), the Russell-Mini (6 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-4.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-25.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 16.4 53.9 8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.4 36.9 9.8
– Net Position: -52,355 55,595 -3,240
– Gross Longs: 53,609 176,081 28,892
– Gross Shorts: 105,964 120,486 32,132
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.5 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 76.5 22.1 75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.3 -15.3 3.2

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -226,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 12.7 73.8 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 23.7 62.6 11.6
– Net Position: -226,818 231,163 -4,345
– Gross Longs: 260,337 1,518,121 234,865
– Gross Shorts: 487,155 1,286,958 239,210
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.2 81.2 25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -4.3 4.7 -2.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 31.3 48.3 16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 44.1 33.5 18.5
– Net Position: -10,613 12,290 -1,677
– Gross Longs: 25,847 39,948 13,654
– Gross Shorts: 36,460 27,658 15,331
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 27.1 73.9 32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 1.5 -9.7 29.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.4 62.9 11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.9 51.8 15.5
– Net Position: -20,633 30,544 -9,911
– Gross Longs: 61,621 172,926 32,760
– Gross Shorts: 82,254 142,382 42,671
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.5 45.3 33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -19.1 21.9 -2.7

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 10.4 82.7 5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.1 68.8 4.9
– Net Position: -62,915 59,423 3,492
– Gross Longs: 44,629 354,698 24,352
– Gross Shorts: 107,544 295,275 20,860
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 32.0 66.4 37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.9 -4.1 -8.3

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.1 61.2 20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 45.2 30.5 24.3
– Net Position: -3,825 4,340 -515
– Gross Longs: 2,560 8,653 2,914
– Gross Shorts: 6,385 4,313 3,429
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 2.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.3 51.4 21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -6.1 13.4 -17.4

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 5.2 91.1 3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.2 84.8 1.5
– Net Position: -28,278 22,516 5,762
– Gross Longs: 18,717 324,872 11,276
– Gross Shorts: 46,995 302,356 5,514
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.1 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.4 86.7 68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.5 23.7 8.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

contributors

Share
Published by
contributors

Recent Posts

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

1 day ago

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Euro & CAD lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro  The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released…

2 days ago

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT)…

2 days ago

This website uses cookies.