Large Currency Speculators trimmed Euro bullish bets after run to 100-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,796 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,267 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,277 contracts), the US Dollar Index (820 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (573 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (524 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-16,247 contracts) with the British Pound (-9,414 contracts), Japanese Yen (-9,134 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,650 contracts) and Bitcoin (-304 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is this week’s breather in the highly bullish Euro currency speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Euro dropped this week by the most in the past twenty-four weeks. This week’s shortfall, however, follows a strong bullish run that had seen positions rise in fourteen out of the previous seventeen weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a new 100-week high last week at a total of +146,621 contracts and the highest since January of 2021. Despite this week’s decline, the Euro positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past ten weeks which marks the best run since 2021.

The Euro price has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and has shot higher against the US Dollar since US inflationary data has started to cool. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate closed just below the 1.0700 level this week after having been right at parity (1.0000) as recently as November 22nd.

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Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (75 percent), New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) and the US Dollar Index (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (40 percent) and the Swiss Franc (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (59.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (40.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (51.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (50.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (72.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.9 percent)
Bitcoin (83.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.0 percent)

 

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the British Pound (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and Bitcoin (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-10.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.5 percent)
EuroFX (2.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-51.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (2.1 percent)

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Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	3.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	52.1	7.4
– Net Position:	17,761	-20,204	2,443
– Gross Longs:	33,171	1,588	5,538
– Gross Shorts:	15,410	21,792	3,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	43.7	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	12.3	-15.8

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 129,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	79.2	5.8
– Net Position:	129,915	-174,081	44,166
– Gross Longs:	222,543	389,861	85,209
– Gross Shorts:	92,628	563,942	41,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.6	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-4.6	14.9

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	65.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	51.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-20,301	29,692	-9,391
– Gross Longs:	43,625	135,314	22,168
– Gross Shorts:	63,926	105,622	31,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	54.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-14.8	12.1

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	68.3	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	41.2	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,864	46,773	91
– Gross Longs:	25,377	117,959	27,267
– Gross Shorts:	72,241	71,186	27,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	58.5	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-15.3	27.1

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	48.9	31.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	29.6	41.8
– Net Position:	-2,854	6,431	-3,577
– Gross Longs:	6,632	16,274	10,322
– Gross Shorts:	9,486	9,843	13,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	55.6	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-21.1	3.9

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	55.8	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	38.2	21.3
– Net Position:	-26,766	24,541	2,225
– Gross Longs:	25,497	77,624	31,870
– Gross Shorts:	52,263	53,083	29,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	89.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	9.9	6.5

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	56.2	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	26.4	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,267	39,595	-3,328
– Gross Longs:	35,208	74,724	17,847
– Gross Shorts:	71,475	35,129	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-7.8	9.5

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	41.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.0	10.6
– Net Position:	7,480	-8,170	690
– Gross Longs:	13,366	12,378	3,842
– Gross Shorts:	5,886	20,548	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	27.2	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.2	16.9

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	22.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-56,376	50,262	6,114
– Gross Longs:	131,201	105,401	8,078
– Gross Shorts:	187,577	55,139	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	93.8	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.0	50.2	-3.6

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.5	7.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	85.4	4.4
– Net Position:	28,211	-29,648	1,437
– Gross Longs:	32,105	2,779	3,096
– Gross Shorts:	3,894	32,427	1,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.4	-0.2

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	0.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	6.3
– Net Position:	389	-578	189
– Gross Longs:	11,747	73	1,103
– Gross Shorts:	11,358	651	914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	36.4	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	21.0	-2.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.