The Euro has retreated after all. Overview for 20.10.2022

The main currency pair was slightly below previous levels by Thursday. The current quote in EURUSD is 0.9770. There was no particularly “minor” news on the ground. But investors were sensitive to the global “mood” and started to walk away from the risks.

US statistics released the day before were mixed. The number of building permits for new homes in September rose to 1.56 million from 1.54 million, whereas a decrease to 1.52 million was expected. At the same time the number of new home orders in September “fell” to 1.44 million from the previous 1.57 million. The picture is as follows: the volume of permits is considerable, but it is not a given that households will go straight to the building itself. This is due to the “acceleration” of inflation, including in the building materials segment.

Interestingly, European inflation did adjust to 9.9% y/y in September rather than 10.0% as originally calculated. The core CPI remained stable at around 4.8% y/y.

The focus today will be on the weekly unemployment claims in the US. The figure could have remained around 229,000, which is neutral for EURUSD. Also worth watching is the secondary home sales data for September – the indicator could have fallen to 4.69 million, which once again confirms the weakness in consumer demand.