Oil bulls try to make a comeback

The Crude Oil market on the D1 time frame was in an extended down trend until 26 September when a last lower bottom was recorded at 76.13. Bulls found the price attractive at those levels and demand started overcoming supply.

A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals a positive divergence between points “a” and “b” when comparing the bottoms at 83.74 and 76.13. This could have alerted technical traders that the downtrend might be losing momentum.

After the lower bottom at 76.13, the price of Crude Oil broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator cut through the 100 base-line into bullish territory.

A higher top and possible critical resistance level formed on 10 Oct at 92.59. Bears are currently trying to drive the price lower but a possible higher bottom might be forming at a support level on 12 October at 85.17.

If the support level holds and the bulls manage to break through the critical resistance level at 92.59, then three possible price targets can be calculated from there. Applying the Fibonacci tool to the higher top at 92.59 and dragging it to the bottom of the support area at 85.17, the following targets may be considered. The first target may be likely at 97.18 (161%) and the second price target at 104.60 (261.8%). The third and final target may be expected at 116.60 (423.6%).

If the support level at 85.17 is broken, the bullish scenario is overturned and the scenario needs to be re-assessed.

As long as the supply remains constrained, the outlook for the Crude Oil market in the D1 time frame will remain bullish.