Will the S&P 500 Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks?

Here’s what usually happens when “financial lunacy” is prevalent

By Elliott Wave International

You don’t hear much about the meme stock craze anymore — and for good reason.

It’s all but dead and has been for months (Barron’s, Jan. 28):

A Year After It Began, Meme-Stock Mania Is on Life Support

Early last year, the movement to buy meme stocks — like AMC, Gamestop and others — was largely driven by discussions on the internet, mainly by stock market novices.

When the movement was still going strong, the February 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, made this comment about meme stocks:

A mania is pretty funny, especially at the very end, when financial lunacy is so prevalent that many assume it to be permanent.

Here’s an update from the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

As you can see on the chart, the Meme Stock Index is down 65% from its early 2021 peak (as of the time the July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast published). So, indeed, the assumption of permanency was what you would call — misplaced.

What you need to know is that an assumption of permanency is now geared toward the main stock indexes — not just by amateur investors, but professionals (Bloomberg June 27):

S&P Analysts Haven’t Been This Bullish In 20 Years

It’s clear that these S&P analysts are shrugging off the downtrends that began in the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 index in January.

They may turn out to be correct — in other words, the downtrend is over and another major leg up is set to start.

Then again, you may want to consult the stock market’s Elliott wave structure.

The July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast describes two Elliott wave options for the S&P 500 index between now and the end of summer.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, you are encouraged to read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis.

Would you like to delve deeper into the Wave Principle?

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