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COT Week 26 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets drop sharply led by Corn, Soybeans & Sugar

July 2, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just two out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while nine markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Lean Hogs (4,228 contracts) and Cocoa (3,034 contracts) as the only markets showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,067 contracts), Soybeans (-41,186 contracts) and Sugar (-40,402 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-22,612 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,287 contracts), Wheat (-11,388 contracts), Cotton (-9,655 contracts), Coffee (-4,171 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,446 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (80 percent) is leading the speculator strength positions at an extreme bullish score. Coffee (78 percent) and Corn (72 percent) are the next highest in strength scores. Live Cattle (14 percent) is the lone extreme bearish market with Cocoa (24 percent) coming in as the next lowest.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the trends for soft commodities are on the downside with eight out of the eleven markets showing negative trends. Soybean Oil (-34 percent) and Wheat (-28 percent) are leading the negative scores currently. The only markets with positive scores this week are Coffee (6 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-28-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,651,566 0 299,692 3 -327,938 99 28,246 55
Gold 497,005 13 157,693 2 -182,007 98 24,314 16
Silver 135,775 3 10,891 0 -18,485 100 7,594 0
Copper 182,352 14 -30,696 20 31,197 81 -501 22
Palladium 7,765 6 -3,825 1 4,441 100 -616 8
Platinum 68,232 36 -1,306 2 -3,381 100 4,687 27
Natural Gas 987,740 0 -129,419 40 90,840 60 38,579 71
Brent 173,920 19 -42,677 40 41,434 62 1,243 26
Heating Oil 269,168 23 7,508 53 -25,743 44 18,235 62
Soybeans 653,337 11 137,193 56 -106,705 52 -30,488 20
Corn 1,338,054 0 328,102 72 -274,110 33 -53,992 12
Coffee 194,896 2 45,200 78 -47,147 26 1,947 9
Sugar 734,324 0 122,709 62 -132,877 43 10,168 20
Wheat 291,041 0 7,679 29 -1,871 57 -5,808 80

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 328,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 380,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.4 44.6 9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.9 65.1 13.4
– Net Position: 328,102 -274,110 -53,992
– Gross Longs: 433,710 597,265 125,886
– Gross Shorts: 105,608 871,375 179,878
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 71.9 32.9 12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -18.6 21.4 -2.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 122,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -40,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.7 49.2 9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.0 67.3 7.7
– Net Position: 122,709 -132,877 10,168
– Gross Longs: 210,575 361,005 66,813
– Gross Shorts: 87,866 493,882 56,645
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 61.8 43.0 20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -15.2 21.3 -47.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.5 49.4 4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.3 73.6 3.1
– Net Position: 45,200 -47,147 1,947
– Gross Longs: 55,545 96,232 8,006
– Gross Shorts: 10,345 143,379 6,059
– Long to Short Ratio: 5.4 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 77.9 26.5 9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 5.8 -5.6 -5.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 137,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.3 52.5 5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.3 68.9 10.5
– Net Position: 137,193 -106,705 -30,488
– Gross Longs: 191,380 343,227 38,323
– Gross Shorts: 54,187 449,932 68,811
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.5 to 1 0.8 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 51.7 19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.1 15.0 -6.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.7 55.7 8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 10.3 70.4 6.1
– Net Position: 44,918 -53,225 8,307
– Gross Longs: 82,491 202,343 30,416
– Gross Shorts: 37,573 255,568 22,109
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 35.9 63.7 44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -34.2 38.6 -48.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 93,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.3 43.5 11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 3.3 72.8 6.0
– Net Position: 93,925 -114,869 20,944
– Gross Longs: 106,995 170,250 44,567
– Gross Shorts: 13,070 285,119 23,623
– Long to Short Ratio: 8.2 to 1 0.6 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 79.8 23.2 42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.5 -7.4 -33.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 35.0 39.4 11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.1 49.1 11.5
– Net Position: 27,835 -27,080 -755
– Gross Longs: 98,030 110,513 31,369
– Gross Shorts: 70,195 137,593 32,124
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.8 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 14.3 76.2 79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.0 5.9 9.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 32.9 41.6 9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.2 45.5 14.5
– Net Position: 16,287 -7,339 -8,948
– Gross Longs: 61,378 77,472 18,100
– Gross Shorts: 45,091 84,811 27,048
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 24.5 84.8 50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.3 -5.5 -19.9

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 41.4 40.3 7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 9.3 75.6 4.5
– Net Position: 56,390 -61,856 5,466
– Gross Longs: 72,622 70,585 13,385
– Gross Shorts: 16,232 132,441 7,919
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.5 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.6 41.9 46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.6 17.0 -38.7

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.2 44.3 4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.1 47.1 3.7
– Net Position: 6,339 -8,708 2,369
– Gross Longs: 91,654 134,441 13,610
– Gross Shorts: 85,315 143,149 11,241
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 23.8 77.4 20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 14.6 -27.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 40.8 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.3 41.5 12.1
– Net Position: 7,679 -1,871 -5,808
– Gross Longs: 89,989 118,839 29,465
– Gross Shorts: 82,310 120,710 35,273
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.0 57.0 80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -27.5 34.3 -15.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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