The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0506
• Prev Close: 1.0534
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

The European currency increased yesterday after European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane confirmed that the ECB would raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting. Still, the size of its September hike has yet to be determined, suggesting that a larger increase of 50 basis points is also a realistic option.

• Support levels: 1.0499, 1.0408, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the average values, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and a sideways trend is forming. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0611, but only after the additional confirmation. A price move above 1.0611 will change the priority. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0499, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 16:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2245
• Prev Close: 1.2279
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28%

On Tuesday, Bank of England Chief Economist Hugh Pill said that the central bank would soon need to raise interest rates to deal with rising inflation.New inflation data will be released in the UK today. Economists forecast that the consumer price index will reach an annualized rate of 9.1% (the current value is 9.0%). If the data is worse than expected, the British pound may gain further momentum amid expectations of more aggressive action by the Bank of England to suppress inflation.

• Support levels: 1.2176, 1.2093, 1.1974
• Resistance levels: 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price has corrected to the average values, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and a sideways trend is forming. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2422, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2176, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2422 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 135.00
• Prev Close: 136.65
• % chg. over the last day: +1.22%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen fell against the US dollar to its lowest level since October 1998, as the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan stands in stark contrast to the aggressive Federal Reserve. The meeting between Japan’s central bank governor Kuroda and Prime Minister Kishida did not result in any action to strengthen the yen.

• Support levels: 135.54, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
• Resistance levels: 136.66

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price continues to rise steadily. It is best to wait for a slight pullback to join the trend. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 135.54, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 136.66 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2980
• Prev Close: 1.2917
• % chg. over the last day: +0.49%

Retail sales rose 0.9% to $60.7 billion in April. Sales increased in 6 of 11 subsectors. This is a sign that the Canadian economy is in good shape and shows no signs of slowing down, unlike the US figures. Canada will also release consumer price data today. Economists are predicting inflation to rise another 1%, to 7.78% in annual terms. The current inflation rate is 6.78%. It should be noted that Canada’s central bank is on its way to tightening interest rates. Therefore, a sharp rise in inflation figures may give confidence to the Canadian dollar on the back of more aggressive monetary policy tightening.

• Support levels: 1.2925, 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
• Resistance levels: 1.2974, 1.3068

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive,and the price has corrected to its average values but has broken through the downtrend line. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2925. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2974, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2815 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).