COT Currency Speculators raised British Pound Sterling bearish bets for 10th week

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for this week’s Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week was the rise in bearish bets for the British pound sterling currency futures contracts. Pound speculators have raised their bearish bets for a tenth consecutive week this week and for the eleventh time out of the past twelve weeks. Over the past ten-week time-frame, pound bets have dropped by a total of -79,261 contracts, going from -337 net positions on March 1st to a total of -79,598 net positions this week. The deterioration in speculator sentiment has now pushed the pound net position to the most bearish standing of the past one hundred and thirty-seven weeks, dating back to September 24th of 2019.

Pound sterling sentiment has been hit by a recent slowing economy as the UK GDP declined by 0.1 percent in March after flat growth in February. Also, weighing on the UK economy is the war in Ukraine that has sharply raised inflation in the country (and elsewhere) and which could see the UK economy with the lowest growth rate among G7 countries in 2023, according to the IMF.

Overall, the currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Euro (22,907 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,705 contracts), Bitcoin (315 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-9,660 contracts), Australian dollar (-13,198 contracts), Brazil real (-1,010 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,856 contracts), British pound sterling (-5,785 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-6,386 contracts), Canadian dollar (-14,436 contracts), Russian ruble (-263 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,102 contracts).

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.6	3.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	67.8	4.5
– Net Position:	34,776	-37,174	2,398
– Gross Longs:	49,864	1,837	4,970
– Gross Shorts:	15,088	39,011	2,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	12.8	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.4	-19.3

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	53.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	59.4	8.3
– Net Position:	16,529	-43,026	26,497
– Gross Longs:	228,230	376,043	84,921
– Gross Shorts:	211,701	419,069	58,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	63.8	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.2	0.9

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	79.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	43.6	13.5
– Net Position:	-79,598	95,245	-15,647
– Gross Longs:	29,469	210,627	20,157
– Gross Shorts:	109,067	115,382	35,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	86.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	25.6	-7.7

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	86.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	35.7	13.9
– Net Position:	-110,454	124,927	-14,473
– Gross Longs:	11,196	213,084	19,811
– Gross Shorts:	121,650	88,157	34,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.8	96.6	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	0.0	16.7

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	74.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	16.5	43.5
– Net Position:	-15,763	29,819	-14,056
– Gross Longs:	4,727	38,258	8,271
– Gross Shorts:	20,490	8,439	22,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.8	69.2	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.0	-7.6

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	49.8	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	47.9	20.1
– Net Position:	-5,407	2,939	2,468
– Gross Longs:	38,679	75,215	32,880
– Gross Shorts:	44,086	72,276	30,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	66.9	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	14.5	-29.0

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	59.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	29.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-41,714	47,126	-5,412
– Gross Longs:	36,869	91,731	20,131
– Gross Shorts:	78,583	44,605	25,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	54.0	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	4.7	-34.4

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	68.5	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	38.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-12,996	16,874	-3,878
– Gross Longs:	15,203	38,541	2,216
– Gross Shorts:	28,199	21,667	6,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	56.4	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	26.0	-54.4

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	53.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	66.7	1.5
– Net Position:	16,725	-20,866	4,141
– Gross Longs:	63,921	81,735	6,467
– Gross Shorts:	47,196	102,601	2,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	64.1	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-10.1	-3.5

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	15.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	83.8	3.0
– Net Position:	40,778	-42,031	1,253
– Gross Longs:	48,835	9,454	3,070
– Gross Shorts:	8,057	51,485	1,817
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.3	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.5	-20.6

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	60.6	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	0.5	94.7	4.7
– Net Position:	7,543	-7,150	-393
– Gross Longs:	7,658	12,679	593
– Gross Shorts:	115	19,829	986
– Long to Short Ratio:	66.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	69.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	16.7	-18.8

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	2.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.6	9.4	8.3
– Net Position:	703	-789	86
– Gross Longs:	8,789	227	989
– Gross Shorts:	8,086	1,016	903
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-24.9	-13.6

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.