by JustForex
Today is a bank holiday in Europe. Volatility will be very low in the first half of the day. Fundamentally, the European currency now looks weaker than the dollar index as the Fed is already tightening monetary policy. At the same time, the ECB will complete its bond-buying program only in the third quarter of 2022.
From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. Against the uncertainty from ECB, the euro continues to lose ground. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is possible to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0727, but only with short targets and confirmation. Sell trades should be considered from the resistance level of 1.0844 or 1.0889, but only after the additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0958 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
Today is a bank holiday in the UK. Volatility in currency pairs with the British pound will be low. It should be noted that the GBP now looks more confident than the EUR as the Bank of England has already increased the interest rates three times, and economic data shows no signs of stagflation (slowing economic growth with high inflation).
On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price has corrected to the nearest support levels. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.3094 or 1.3115, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.3023, but only with short targets.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3147 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.
Today, the Bank of Japan chairman said that the central bank does not want the yen to depreciate too quickly and is ready to provide some support to the currency. He also added that a too weak yen or a fast weakening yen might have a more negative impact on the economy, but overall, a weak yen positively affects the economy. As the yen reaches a 20-year low, analysts expect some correction in the near term.
The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive again. On the higher timeframes, there is a divergence. But the price has deviated very much from the moving averages. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but after the price makes a pullback to the average lines. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 125.72 or 124.66, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 126.69 may be considered for sell deals, but only after the appearance of a bearish initiative.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 122.97, the uptrend will likely be broken.
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent on the movement of oil prices and the dollar index. The dollar index continued to rise yesterday, but oil prices also jumped up on news that the EU may impose a phased ban on Russian oil imports. As a result, USD/CAD quotes have no unified dynamics right now in terms of fundamentals.
The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyer’s pressure is increasing again. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, there are no prerequisites for the medium-term trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2567, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2644, but it is also better with confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2467, the downtrend will likely be resumed.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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