Large Currency Speculators raise their Brazilian Real bullish bets to Record High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the jump in bullish bets in the Brazilian Real currency futures contracts. Real speculators increased their bullish bets for a fourth straight week this week and by a total of +63,801 contracts over this four-week time-frame. This bullishness has taken the Real speculator level from -13,353 net positions on February 1st to +50,448 net positions this week. The current overall speculator standing has now climbed to the most bullish level on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to the mid-1990’s and eclipsing the previous high set in 2017. The BRLUSD currency pair price has been in an uptrend since the beginning of the year and has reached the highest levels since June just below the 0.2000 exchange rate.

The currencies with higher speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (26,003 contracts), Mexican peso (25,553 contracts), Euro (5,633 contracts), British pound sterling (5,472 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,887 contracts), Australian dollar (5,744 contracts) and Bitcoin (363 contracts).

The currencies with lower speculator bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,310 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,545 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,261 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,621 contracts) and the Russian ruble (-9,843 contracts).

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	8.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	78.1	2.3
– Net Position:	34,774	-39,391	4,617
– Gross Longs:	43,761	4,831	5,942
– Gross Shorts:	8,987	44,222	1,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.1 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	9.1	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.0	-14.7

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	54.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	67.4	7.5
– Net Position:	64,939	-95,105	30,166
– Gross Longs:	228,385	390,260	84,321
– Gross Shorts:	163,446	485,365	54,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	48.8	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-12.6	7.1

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	62.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	55.4	17.2
– Net Position:	-337	14,129	-13,792
– Gross Longs:	47,679	131,583	22,551
– Gross Shorts:	48,016	117,454	36,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	38.0	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	6.7	-23.2

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	80.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	42.2	15.9
– Net Position:	-68,732	79,535	-10,803
– Gross Longs:	14,665	167,605	22,407
– Gross Shorts:	83,397	88,070	33,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	75.7	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-10.0	17.5

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -15,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.5	74.1	21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	30.0	33.3
– Net Position:	-15,248	20,862	-5,614
– Gross Longs:	1,651	35,045	10,127
– Gross Shorts:	16,899	14,183	15,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	54.3	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	8.0	-7.7

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.1	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	55.2	16.3
– Net Position:	14,140	-21,586	7,446
– Gross Longs:	50,881	57,576	30,817
– Gross Shorts:	36,741	79,162	23,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	42.2	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.4	2.4

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -78,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	33.8	15.4
– Net Position:	-78,336	87,737	-9,401
– Gross Longs:	12,720	151,922	19,865
– Gross Shorts:	91,056	64,185	29,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	84.4	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.0	1.6

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -14,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	72.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	40.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-14,172	16,090	-1,918
– Gross Longs:	10,485	36,326	2,665
– Gross Shorts:	24,657	20,236	4,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.5	55.2	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	8.4	4.3

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 42,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	46.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.5	1.9
– Net Position:	42,378	-45,811	3,433
– Gross Longs:	74,971	72,497	6,306
– Gross Shorts:	32,593	118,308	2,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.7	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-16.0	3.7

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	40.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	68.9	2.0
– Net Position:	24,445	-27,081	2,636
– Gross Longs:	51,990	38,039	4,541
– Gross Shorts:	27,545	65,120	1,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	24.7	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.7	-37.1	31.8

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	51.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	88.5	5.9
– Net Position:	9,674	-9,068	-606
– Gross Longs:	11,050	12,848	855
– Gross Shorts:	1,376	21,916	1,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	64.8	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-4.2	-39.0

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 80 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.0	3.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.2	8.4	7.6
– Net Position:	80	-517	437
– Gross Longs:	7,981	321	1,198
– Gross Shorts:	7,901	838	761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	0.0	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-39.7	-3.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.