COT Currency Speculator Sentiment rising for Euro & British Pound Sterling

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data is the trend changes in speculator sentiment we are seeing in the Euro and the British pound sterling. Speculators have been boosting their bets for the Euro and pound sterling over the past weeks and have now pushed their bets in both currencies to their best levels since September.

Euro positions have gained for five consecutive weeks (a 5-week total rise of +36,463 contracts) and have now been in bullish territory for two straight weeks after spending thirteen out of the past fourteen weeks in bearish territory. This week’s net position of +24,584 contracts marks the best position since September 14th when positions were in a downtrend and on their way into negative territory.

British pound speculator bets, meanwhile, have risen sharply with four straight weeks of gains (a 4-week rise by +57,439 contracts) and have now settled into a current position of just -247 net contracts. The net position had been at a multi-year bearish high of -57,686 contracts as recently as December 21st before a turnaround in sentiment.

Joining the Euro (18,579 contracts) and British pound sterling (28,919 contracts) with positive changes this week were the yen (6,646 contracts), New Zealand dollar (273 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,868 contracts), Australian dollar (3,032 contracts) and the Mexican peso (9,371 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the US Dollar Index (-1,458 contracts), Brazil real (-557 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,150 contracts), Russian ruble (-3,195 contracts) and Bitcoin (-172 contracts)

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US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.5	3.2	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	82.7	4.2
– Net Position:	36,434	-42,397	5,963
– Gross Longs:	42,369	1,684	8,180
– Gross Shorts:	5,935	44,081	2,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	4.1	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-3.6	6.8

 

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Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	56.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	63.6	7.8
– Net Position:	24,584	-50,464	25,880
– Gross Longs:	211,901	389,617	79,656
– Gross Shorts:	187,317	440,081	53,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	61.5	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-8.6	-4.3

 

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British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	62.5	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	60.9	15.8
– Net Position:	-247	2,848	-2,601
– Gross Longs:	39,760	114,486	26,267
– Gross Shorts:	40,007	111,638	28,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	31.4	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.4	-30.6	28.5

 

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Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	86.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	36.6	18.0
– Net Position:	-80,879	99,740	-18,861
– Gross Longs:	8,002	173,701	17,475
– Gross Shorts:	88,881	73,961	36,336
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	85.7	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	9.5	-3.1

 

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Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.3	67.3	30.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	32.7	37.5
– Net Position:	-10,810	13,799	-2,989
– Gross Longs:	925	26,828	11,951
– Gross Shorts:	11,735	13,029	14,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	46.4	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-7.4	15.5

 

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Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.1	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	50.7	17.5
– Net Position:	7,492	-13,723	6,231
– Gross Longs:	49,792	58,921	31,270
– Gross Shorts:	42,300	72,644	25,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	46.9	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-13.5	6.0

 

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Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -88,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	82.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	27.9	16.1
– Net Position:	-88,454	98,519	-10,065
– Gross Longs:	9,051	148,978	19,008
– Gross Shorts:	97,505	50,459	29,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	92.4	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	-0.3	17.1

 

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New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	66.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	43.0	11.5
– Net Position:	-8,331	10,622	-2,291
– Gross Longs:	11,612	29,876	2,851
– Gross Shorts:	19,943	19,254	5,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	46.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	30.0	-5.2

 

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Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	46.1	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	51.0	2.2
– Net Position:	4,920	-7,490	2,570
– Gross Longs:	75,461	69,942	5,901
– Gross Shorts:	70,541	77,432	3,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	69.7	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.4	-30.3	15.6

 

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Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	56.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.6	23.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-11,369	10,759	610
– Gross Longs:	10,958	18,179	2,841
– Gross Shorts:	22,327	7,420	2,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	47.8	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.6	9.9

 

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Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	60.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	75.9	2.8
– Net Position:	6,422	-7,251	829
– Gross Longs:	16,034	27,233	2,101
– Gross Shorts:	9,612	34,484	1,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	68.9	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	19.1	-25.4

 

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Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.4	3.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	3.3	7.3
– Net Position:	-549	-22	571
– Gross Longs:	8,417	355	1,407
– Gross Shorts:	8,966	377	836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.9	28.5	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-13.2	-5.0

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.