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COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculators keep Cotton, Coffee & Sugar bets strongly bullish

November 15, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 9th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. This week’s reports are delayed due to last week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.

Highlighting this week’s COT data for Soft Commodities is the continued strength of Coffee, Cotton and Sugar. All three of these markets remain in very bullish territory for speculators and are over the extreme strength index reading of 80+ percent each. Coffee and Cotton have been having great runs in price as their ETF prices have risen by 41 and 36 percent, respectively over the past 90 days. Sugar has been not quite as hot with a 90-day gain of 16.53 percent.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-09-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 2,081,385 22 421,312 46 -461,964 44 40,652 72
Gold 571,025 43 250,181 71 -275,489 30 25,308 42
Silver 144,370 11 36,915 59 -53,669 46 16,754 38
Copper 213,365 36 22,789 59 -33,194 37 10,405 85
Palladium 11,819 24 -2,954 2 3,003 97 -49 42
Platinum 57,866 18 17,630 28 -24,263 74 6,633 55
Natural Gas 1,305,687 45 -142,191 36 98,418 62 43,773 90
Brent 192,398 33 -11,851 100 7,567 0 4,284 82
Heating Oil 421,299 61 20,022 72 -42,921 26 22,899 78
Soybeans 644,317 9 27,584 37 9,085 68 -36,669 11
Corn 1,540,731 28 375,298 78 -320,877 26 -54,421 12
Coffee 312,143 67 60,820 93 -65,365 9 4,545 20
Sugar 897,739 22 212,031 80 -260,761 19 48,730 68
Wheat 405,438 37 19,203 63 -13,409 28 -5,794 74

 

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 375,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 383,109 net contracts.

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This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 30.9 45.8 9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.6 66.7 12.5
– Net Position: 375,298 -320,877 -54,421
– Gross Longs: 476,313 706,074 138,767
– Gross Shorts: 101,015 1,026,951 193,188
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.7 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 78.0 26.2 11.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 12.4 -15.1 5.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 212,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 209,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.9 43.7 11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 6.3 72.8 5.6
– Net Position: 212,031 -260,761 48,730
– Gross Longs: 268,559 392,370 98,602
– Gross Shorts: 56,528 653,131 49,872
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.8 to 1 0.6 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 80.2 18.7 68.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -7.6 5.9 7.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.1 44.1 4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 5.6 65.1 2.6
– Net Position: 60,820 -65,365 4,545
– Gross Longs: 78,364 137,701 12,604
– Gross Shorts: 17,544 203,066 8,059
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 92.8 8.6 19.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -3.5 4.2 -3.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 27,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.2 59.0 7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 14.9 57.6 12.9
– Net Position: 27,584 9,085 -36,669
– Gross Longs: 123,904 379,918 46,176
– Gross Shorts: 96,320 370,833 82,845
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 1.0 to 1 0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 37.2 68.0 10.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.2 12.2 -24.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 78,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 48.7 6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 8.6 68.6 5.3
– Net Position: 78,712 -84,310 5,598
– Gross Longs: 115,011 206,289 28,073
– Gross Shorts: 36,299 290,599 22,475
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.2 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 66.3 37.6 34.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 14.9 -14.0 1.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 45,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.2 45.2 12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 12.1 60.9 6.6
– Net Position: 45,635 -70,647 25,012
– Gross Longs: 100,078 203,931 54,716
– Gross Shorts: 54,443 274,578 29,704
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.8 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.5 41.9 70.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.6 -22.7 34.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 40.6 10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 16.2 54.7 13.0
– Net Position: 49,203 -41,274 -7,929
– Gross Longs: 96,637 118,856 30,161
– Gross Shorts: 47,434 160,130 38,090
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 22.0 74.0 67.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 6.1 -6.2 -3.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 44,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 37.7 34.0 7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 17.9 46.7 14.4
– Net Position: 44,937 -28,767 -16,170
– Gross Longs: 85,588 77,199 16,461
– Gross Shorts: 40,651 105,966 32,631
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 57.4 53.2 5.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.0 23.0 -12.2

 

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.7 38.2 8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 4.4 79.3 3.1
– Net Position: 103,513 -117,333 13,820
– Gross Longs: 116,142 108,838 22,797
– Gross Shorts: 12,629 226,171 8,977
– Long to Short Ratio: 9.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 88.7 9.4 99.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.1 5.7 18.0

 

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 24.0 57.8 4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.0 57.2 3.6
– Net Position: -4,621 1,434 3,187
– Gross Longs: 57,241 137,758 11,777
– Gross Shorts: 61,862 136,324 8,590
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.1 80.2 44.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.4 24.7 14.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.0 34.4 8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.2 37.7 10.2
– Net Position: 19,203 -13,409 -5,794
– Gross Longs: 117,465 139,289 35,456
– Gross Shorts: 98,262 152,698 41,250
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.2 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.4 27.8 73.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 19.5 -24.2 9.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.







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