The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.09.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1814
• Prev Close: 1.1768
• % chg. over the last day: -0.39%

Yesterday, ECB head Christine Lagarde said that Europe is recovering faster than initially expected. That is a good sign for the European currency to strengthen, but traders should not forget that the American dollar is also strengthening, which leads to a decrease in the EUR/USD quotes.

• Support levels: 1.1759, 1.1704, 1.1620
• Resistance levels: 1.1802, 1.1835, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From the technical point of view, the general trend on the EUR/USD currency pair is bullish. But the selling pressure is increasing. Yesterday’s liquidity narrowing in the form of a triangle ended with an impulsive downward move. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support levels, after a new buyers initiative. It is better to look for sell trades throughout the day from the resistance level in the area of the broken triangle.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1704 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3839
• Prev Close: 1.3787
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

Record energy prices have forced the closure of two fertilizer factories in the north of England and stopped steel plants, which is one of the clear signs that the energy crisis that covers Europe can be a blow to restore Great Britain’s economy.

• Support levels: 1.3769, 1.3692, 1.3632, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3886, 1.3935, 1.4002

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. But amid the strengthening of the dollar index, the GBP/USD currency pair is under sellers’ pressure. The MACD indicator has become negative, but there are signs of pressure from the buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels where the buyers show initiative. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance levels with short targets throughout the day.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3692 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.31
• Prev Close: 109.74
• % chg. over the last day: +0.39%

Given the seasonal fluctuations, exports in Japan increased by 0.8% compared with July. Such data suggests that export growth slowed more than expected in August as the delta coronavirus outbreak affected the global trade recovery.

• Support levels: 109.43, 109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 110.10, 110.40, 110.66, 110.95, 111.48

The main trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. But amid the strengthening of the dollar index and weakness of the Japanese yen, the USD/JPY moved upward again. The MACD indicator has become positive, with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, traders should look for sell positions from the priority change level. Buy positions should be considered only from the support levels where the buyers show initiative throughout the day.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 110.10, the uptrend is likely to resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2625
• Prev Close: 1.2682
• % chg. over the last day: +0.45%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, the dollar index increased while oil prices remained at the same level. As a result, the price of USD/CAD goes up.

• Support levels: 1.2646, 1.2583, 1.2518, 1.2425
• Resistance levels: 1.2726, 1.2812, 1.2891, 1.2951

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But due to the growth of the dollar index and oil prices, the price is trading inside the wide corridor. But weak buying pressure and some narrowing of liquidity in the form of a triangle are clearly seen now. Buy positions can be considered from the support levels where buyers show initiative, and only with short targets. It is better to look for sell positions from the resistance levels of a higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2812 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.