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The Index Almost No One Is Watching . . . But Should Be

John Newell of John Newell & Associates explains why he thinks more people should be looking at the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX).

There’s an old market adage: “Stocks go down in an elevator and up in a staircase.”

That sums up the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX) over the last 15 years, except this time, it didn’t just go down in an elevator. It got trapped in the basement, and every breakout attempt was met with rejection.

Now, it’s not just climbing, it’s breaking out. And hardly anyone’s paying attention.

The CDNX, Canada’s benchmark for early-stage resource and technology companies, has emerged from one of the longest and most painful sideways-to-down periods in its history. For over a decade, it’s been ignored by the mainstream, starved of capital, and left for dead by speculators who moved on to crypto, cannabis, AI, or just gave up.

But that’s changed. The long-term technicals are flashing green. Capital is rotating back into exploration. And the macro story, anchored by gold, copper, and the metals that power the global shift to electrification, is stronger than it’s been in years.

The Setup: Same Way Down, Same Way Up?

Pull up the long-term CDNX chart and you’ll see a dramatic elevator drop from the 2011 highs.

What followed was a decade-long churn that wore out all but the most patient investors. But the pattern that’s forming now? It looks a lot like the mirror image of the move down.

Same way down, same way up?

On the weekly chart, price has broken above long-term moving averages and resistance levels.

Technical targets are activating at 775, 1025, 1325, and 1480. And the long-term Big picture target?

3550, the level where everything started to unravel more than a decade ago.

This isn’t guesswork. It’s price memory. And markets never forget.

Amazon had 20% Corrections Too

Worried about volatility? Looking for the perfect entry? Consider Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN:NASDAQ).

Since the early 2000s, Amazon has gone through more than 15 corrections of 20% or more. Some were over 50%. That’s the price of conviction. And most investors can’t pay it.

If you want generational wealth, you don’t sit in the stands waving pom-poms, you put the pads on and step onto the field.

We celebrate Amazon, Microsoft, and Home Depot as legendary compounders. But almost no one held them through all the turbulence.

Now compare that to junior mining.

You’re not holding for 20 years, waiting on a trillion-dollar valuation. You’re hunting for a discovery, a single drill hole, or deal, that re-rates a company’s valuation in weeks. These aren’t slow burns.

They’re liftoff points.

This Isn’t Just a Rebound. It’s a Rotation.

The CDNX is heavily weighted toward the materials sector, about 40–50%, with gold and silver explorers doing most of the lifting. Base metals like copper and uranium are gaining momentum as investors wake up to the structural shortfalls in global supply.

This index doesn’t move unless real capital is coming back into exploration. And it is.

With gold now holding above $3,300 and copper emerging from a massive base, this isn’t just a bounce, it’s a rotation back to real assets. And junior miners, most of which are still trading near historic lows, are still early in that rotation.

The Venture Exchange is where the rerates happen first.

The Opportunity in One Chart

The index tells us capital is starting to flow. But if you want a more visceral example, take a look at what just happened with ArcWest Exploration Inc. (AWX:TSX.V).

In December 2024, the company was trading at $0.06 with a market cap of ~$5.5 million.

Then, in early July, they announced a $4 million drill program funded by a major.

The stock surged to $0.25 in three days, a revaluation to $22.5 million.

No results, no new resource, no discovery, just a funded drill commitment.

That’s what this part of the market can do.

At the risk of cherry-picking, Arc West shows how fast capital can reprice a stock when sentiment flips. And we’re starting to see more examples like this appear, quietly, for those paying attention.

Final Word

You hear it all the time: “If I’d just held Amazon, I’d be rich.” Sure. But how many did?

Junior mining is different. You don’t need to hold for decades. You just need to spot when a forgotten corner of the market is waking up and be early.

The TSX Venture Index is waking up. Few are watching. But for those willing to take a contrarian position, with eyes wide open, this may be the most explosive setup in the market today.

Like all great trades, it rewards action, not comfort.

Important Disclosures:

John Newell: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Opinions Stock Market News

28 Jun

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Lean Hogs & Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 points this week. The speculator position registered 7,260 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,223 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score or just below its maximum of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 36 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 94,956 net contracts this week although saw a dip by -1,312 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19 points this week. The overall speculator position was 62,947 net contracts this week with a reduction by -4,227 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position registers number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19 points this week.

The speculator position was -209,526 net contracts this week with a drop by -19,812 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was 132,277 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,400 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position also comes in tied at the top of the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -23 points this week. The overall speculator position was -47,220 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -79 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -76,064 net contracts this week with a decrease by -16,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,463,629 net contracts this week with a decline of -20,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in also tied atop as the most bearish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level is rounded to a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -12 points this week. The speculator position was -6,034 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -13 points this week. The speculator position was -367,108 net contracts this week with a dip by -19,423 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Jun

RNA has newly identified role: Repairing serious DNA damage to maintain the genome

By Francesca Storici, Georgia Institute of Technology

Your DNA is continually damaged by sources both inside and outside your body. One especially severe form of damage called a double-strand break involves the severing of both strands of the DNA double helix.

Double-strand breaks are among the most difficult forms of DNA damage for cells to repair because they disrupt the continuity of DNA and leave no intact template to base new strands on. If misrepaired, these breaks can lead to other mutations that make the genome unstable and increase the risk of many diseases, including cancer, neurodegeneration and immunodeficiency.

Cells primarily repair double-strand breaks by either rejoining the broken DNA ends or by using another DNA molecule as a template for repair. However, my team and I discovered that RNA, a type of genetic material best known for its role in making proteins, surprisingly plays a key role in facilitating the repair of these harmful breaks.

These insights could not only pave the way for new treatment strategies for genetic disorders, cancer and neurodegenerative diseases, but also enhance gene-editing technologies.

Sealing a knowledge gap in DNA repair

I have spent the past two decades investigating the relationship between RNA and DNA in order to understand how cells maintain genome integrity and how these mechanisms could be harnessed for genetic engineering.

A long-standing question in the field has been whether RNA in cells helps keep the genome stable beyond acting as a copy of DNA in the process of making proteins and a regulator of gene expression. Studying how RNA might do this has been especially difficult due to its similarity to DNA and how fast it degrades. It’s also technically challenging to tell whether the RNA is directly working to repair DNA or indirectly regulating the process. Traditional models and tools for studying DNA repair have for the most part focused on proteins and DNA, leaving RNA’s potential contributions largely unexplored.

RNA plays a key role in protein synthesis.

My team and I were curious about whether RNA might actively participate in fixing double-strand breaks as a first line of defense. To explore this, we used the gene-editing tool CRISPR-Cas9 to make breaks at specific spots in the DNA of human and yeast cells. We then analyzed how RNA influences various aspects of the repair process, including efficiency and outcomes.

We found that RNA can actively guide the repair process of double-strand breaks. It does this by binding to broken DNA ends, helping align sequences of DNA on a matching strand that isn’t broken. It can also seal gaps or remove mismatched segments, further influencing whether and how the original sequence is restored.

Additionally, we found that RNA aids in double-strand break repair in both yeast and human cells, suggesting that its role in DNA repair is evolutionary conserved across species. Notably, even low levels of RNA were sufficient to influence the efficiency and outcome of repair, pointing to its broad and previously unrecognized function in maintaining genome stability.

RNA in control

By uncovering RNA’s previously unknown function to repair DNA damage, our findings show how RNA may directly contribute to the stability and evolution of the genome. It’s not merely a passive messenger, but an active participant in genome maintenance.

These insights could help researchers develop new ways to target the genomic instability that underlies many diseases, including cancer and neurodegeneration. Traditionally, treatments and gene-editing tools have focused almost exclusively on DNA or proteins. Our findings suggest that modifying RNA in different ways could also influence how cells respond to DNA damage. For example, researchers could design RNA-based therapies to enhance the repair of harmful breaks that could cause cancer, or selectively disrupt DNA break repair in cancer cells to help kill them.

In addition, these findings could improve the precision of gene-editing technologies like CRISPR by accounting for interactions between RNA and DNA at the site of the cut. This could reduce off-target effects and increase editing precision, ultimately contributing to the development of safer and more effective gene therapies.

There are still many unanswered questions about how RNA interacts with DNA in the repair process. The evolutionary role that RNA plays in maintaining genome stability is also unclear. But one thing is certain: RNA is no longer just a messenger, it is a molecule with a direct hand in DNA repair, rewriting what researchers know about how cells safeguard their genetic code.

About the Author:

Francesca Storici, Professor of Biological Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Healthcare Opinions Stock Market News

08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (2,367 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,337 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-16,445 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-7,588 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,362 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (-679 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last updated data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Stock Markets Price Performance:

Last 5 days:
– Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets: gains over 2%
– NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and EAFE: gains over 1%
– VIX: down by over 3%

Last 30 days:
– All markets have gained except VIX
– VIX: down over 30%

Last 90 days:
– Emerging markets, EAFE, and Nikkei 225 are leading the markets higher
– VIX: up approximately 16% while US Markets around breakeven

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (92 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (88 percent) and DowJones-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 Yen (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (65.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (92.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (17.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-35.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-3.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	42.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	41.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-3,398	3,419	-21
– Gross Longs:	81,723	120,140	25,406
– Gross Shorts:	85,121	116,721	25,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	13.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	0.3	-14.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-69,415	9,046	60,369
– Gross Longs:	253,198	1,567,386	245,466
– Gross Shorts:	322,613	1,558,340	185,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	36.2	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	57.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.0	14.9
– Net Position:	10,977	-9,577	-1,400
– Gross Longs:	17,459	47,552	10,908
– Gross Shorts:	6,482	57,129	12,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	24.3	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.2	-1.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	57.7	15.3
– Net Position:	14,670	-9,454	-5,216
– Gross Longs:	82,789	150,507	37,275
– Gross Shorts:	68,119	159,961	42,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	29.8	-9.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	71.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	67.8	6.5
– Net Position:	-12,045	16,193	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	79,926	318,071	24,826
– Gross Shorts:	91,971	301,878	28,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	33.9	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	12.9	-44.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	88.3	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	90.1	1.0
– Net Position:	2,201	-8,388	6,187
– Gross Longs:	44,626	427,946	11,119
– Gross Shorts:	42,425	436,334	4,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	16.2	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.3	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

04 Jun

Broadcom hits fresh all-time highs ahead of key earnings

By ForexTime

Broadcom shares ↑ 85% from 2025 low, recently touching a fresh ATH
Company to release fiscal Q2 earnings after US markets close Thursday 5th June
Beyond earnings, all eyes on hyperscalers collaboration and VMware
Broadcom share price forecasted to move 6.5% up/down post earnings
Wall Street analysts remain firmly bullish on stock

Broadcom is set to release its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings after US markets close on Thursday 5th June.

Shares of the chipmaker are up over 10% year-to-date, recently touching a fresh all-time high above $256.

Zooming out, Broadcom shares have rebounded more than 85% from the 2025 low – fuelled by demand for AI.

Broadcom fiscal Q2 earnings: What to look out for

Broadcom designs, develops and supplies various semiconductor devices with Nvidia, Qualcomm and TSMC among a handful of its biggest competitors.

Its core customers are the trillion-dollar titans – Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet.

The chipmaker’s earnings release may reconfirm the strong demand for artificial intelligence following Nvidia’s blowout earnings last week.

Market expectations…

Wall Street expects the chipmaker to post strong earnings thanks to robust demand for AI.

Revenue: forecasted at $15 billion versus $12.5 billion a year ago

Earnings per share (EPS): forecasted at $1.56 versus $1.10 a year ago

Key challenges

Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs could disrupt supply chains and company profits.

Intense competition from Nvidia, which is now the most valuable company in the world.

Hyperscalers and VMware integration

Investors will be paying close attention to Broadcom’s AI-related revenues and collaboration with leading hyperscalers which could boost revenue streams.
On June 3rd, Broadcom announced that it is now shipping its new Tomahawk 6 switch series chips, delivering world’s first 102.4 terabits/sec of switching capacity in a single chip
VMware momentum is expected to roll over into Q2 with the segment expected to contribute roughly $4.3 billion in revenue.

How will Broadcom react to earnings

Markets currently predict that Broadcom’s stock could move 6.5% up or down when US markets reopen on Friday, 6th June.

BULLISH: Should Broadcom’s past quarterly results and forward guidance boost confidence in its business outlook, this could push prices higher.

Using Tuesday’s closing price of $256.75 as a reference point, a 6.5% climb would see this stock reach a fresh all-time high at $273.44.

BEARISH: Should Broadcom announce disappointing results, prices may tumble.

A 6.5% decline from $256.75 may drag prices to $240.1.

Over the next 12 months….

Wall Street analysts remain bullish on this stock.

46 “Buy” calls

4 “Hold”

1 “Sells”

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

30 May

Top Healthcare Companies scored from recent earnings including Humana

By InvestMacro Research

Earnings season continues on and our latest update highlights some of the top companies that have been recently added to our Cosmic Rays Watchlist.

Today, we have a selection of healthcare companies. The healthcare sector has been one of the weak links so far this year among the sector stock indexes and is considered a defensive stock category (in favor when growth and stocks are not under pressure).

The Cosmic Rays Watchlist is the output from our proprietary fundamental analysis algorithm. The algo examines company fundamental metrics, earnings trends and overall sector strength trends. The aim is identify quality dividend-paying companies on the NYSE and Nasdaq stock exchanges. If a company scores over 50, it gets added to our Watchlist for further analysis.

We use this system as a stock market ideas generator and to update our Watchlist every quarter. However, be aware the fundamental system does not take the stock price as a direct element in our rating so one must compare each idea with their current stock prices (this is not a timing tool).

Many studies are consistently showing overvalued markets and that has to be taken into consideration with any stock market idea. As with all investment ideas, past performance does not guarantee future results. A stock added to our list is not a recommendation to buy or sell the security.

Here we go with 5 of our of Top Healthcare Stocks scored in Q1 2025:

CONMED Corporation
Novartis AG
Novo Nordisk A/S
CVS Health Corporation
Humana Inc.

CONMED Corporation (CNMD):

CONMED Corporation (Symbol: CNMD) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CNMD scored a 68 in our fundamental rating system on May 1st.

At time of writing, only 4.44% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 3 times and rose by 8 system points from our last update.

CNMD is a Small Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CNMD is Medical – Devices.

ConMed sports a PE ratio of approximately 15.64. The dividend yield at this moment is 1.39% with a dividend payout ratio around 20%. ConMed has beaten analyst earnings expectations 4 quarters in a row.

On a price return basis, ConMed has fared worse than its healthcare benchmark with a 52-week price return of over -23% compared to the healthcare benchmark which has fallen almost -9% in the past 52 weeks.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CONMED Corporation, a medical technology company, develops, manufactures, and sells surgical devices and related equipment for surgical procedures worldwide. Company Website: https://www.conmed.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: CONMED Corporation (CNMD) 15.64 -23.03
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Novartis AG (NVS):

Novartis AG (Symbol: NVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVS scored a 77 in our fundamental rating system on April 30th.

At time of writing, only 1.81% of stocks have scored a 70 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 9 times and rose by 20 system points from our last update.

NVS is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVS is Drug Manufacturers – General.

Novatis (NVS) is a company with a PE ratio of 17.43. The current dividend yield is approximately 3.50%. This company is a mega cap and has seen its EPS beat analysts’ expectations for 4 quarters in a row. The payout ratio currently is approximately 65%.

The NVS price return has beaten the healthcare benchmark over the last 52 weeks with a return of over 11% compared to a -9% benchmark return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Innovative Medicines and Sandoz. The Innovative Medicines segment offers prescription medicines for patients and healthcare providers. Company Website: https://www.novartis.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Novartis AG (NVS) 17.43 11.14
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO):

Novo Nordisk A/S (Symbol: NVO) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. NVO scored a 65 in our fundamental rating system on May 8th.

At time of writing, only 4.44% of stocks have scored a 60 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 62 system points from our last update.

NVO is a Mega Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for NVO is Drug Manufacturers – General.

Novo Nordisk (NVO), a healthcare company out of Denmark that engages in the manufacturing distribution of pharmaceutical products. The PE ratio for NVO is approximately 20.50. The dividend yield comes in at approximately 2.43% with a payout ratio on its dividend near 51%. NVO has beaten analysts’ earnings expectations 3 out of the last 4 quarters and for the last 3 quarters in a row.

NVO has significantly underperformed the benchmark over the last 52 weeks with an almost -50% return over that time compared to the -9% for the healthcare benchmark. NVO had previously surged higher with a return of over +200% from September 2022 to June 2024 before retreating lower.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Novo Nordisk A/S, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, manufacture, and distribution of pharmaceutical products in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity Care, and Rare Disease. Company Website: https://www.novonordisk.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) 20.58 -49.47
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

CVS Health Corporation (CVS):

CVS Health Corporation (Symbol: CVS) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. CVS scored a 55 in our fundamental rating system on May 2nd.

At time of writing, only 7.77% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock has made our Watchlist a total of 4 times and rose by 9 system points from our last update.

CVS is a Large Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for CVS is Medical – Healthcare Plans.

CVS has a PE ratio of just below 15.00 at the moment. The dividend yield for CVS is 4.30% with a payout ratio of around 63%. CVS has beaten analysts’ expectations 3 out of the last 4 quarters.

CVS has beaten the healthcare benchmark with a 12% return over the last 52 weeks compared to the -9% healthcare benchmark price return.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

CVS Health Corporation provides health services in the United States. The company’s Health Care Benefits segment offers traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services. Company Website: https://www.cvshealth.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: CVS Health Corporation (CVS) 14.92 12.26
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

Humana Inc. (HUM):

Humana Inc. (Symbol: HUM) was recently added to our Cosmic Rays WatchList. HUM scored a 57 in our fundamental rating system on May 1st.

At time of writing, only 7.77% of stocks have scored a 50 or better out of a total of 13,007 scores in our earnings database. This stock is on our Watchlist for the first time and rose by 62 system points from our last update.

HUM is a Medium Cap stock and part of the Healthcare sector. The industry focus for HUM is Medical – Healthcare Plans.

Humana (HUM) has a PE ratio of 16.11. The estimated yield is 1.45% with a dividend payout ratio of right around 25%. Humana has beaten analysts’ expectations for 4 quarters in a row on its earnings per share. Argus Research and Refinitiv/Verus recently upgraded Humana to BUY.

Humana has fared worse than the healthcare benchmark over the last 52 weeks with a return of roughly -35% compared to the price return for the healthcare benchmark of approximately -9%.

Company Description (courtesy of SEC.gov):

Humana Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health and well-being company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Group and Specialty, and Healthcare Services. The company offers medical and supplemental benefit plans to individuals. Company Website: https://www.humana.com

Asset vs Sector Benchmark: *P/E Ratio (TTM) *52-Week Price Return
– Stock: Humana Inc. (HUM) 16.11 -35.14
– Benchmark Symbol: XLV 24.92 -8.97

* Data through May 29, 2025

By InvestMacro – Be sure to join our stock market newsletter to get our updates and to see more top companies we add to our stock watch list.

All information, stock ideas and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Stock scores are a data driven process through company fundamentals and are not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Company descriptions provided by sec.gov.

Risk Disclosure: Stock Market trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Stock Market trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the stock market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with stock market trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

Healthcare Opinions Stock Market News

28 May

Public health and private equity: What the Walgreens buyout could mean for the future of pharmacy care

By Patrick Aguilar, Washington University in St. Louis and Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis

Pharmacies are more than just stores – they’re vital links between people and their health care.

One of us, Patrick, witnessed this firsthand in 2003 while working as a pharmacy technician at Walgreens in a midsize West Texas town. Each day involved handling hundreds of prescriptions as they moved through the system – meticulously counting pills, deciphering doctors’ handwriting and sorting out confusing insurance issues. The experience revealed that how pharmacies are owned and managed is as much a public health issue as it is a financial one.

Fast-forward to today, and Walgreens – one of the world’s largest pharmacy chains, which filled nearly 800 million U.S. prescriptions in 2024 – is at a turning point. In March, the company announced it would be acquired by private equity firm Sycamore Partners for US$10 billion, just 10% of its peak market value. That deal takes the storied pharmacy chain off the public market for the first time in nearly 100 years.

We’re professors who study the intersection of medicine and business, and we think this deal offers a window into the future of pharmacy care. It matters not just to pharmacists but also to the tens of millions of Americans who rely on outlets like Walgreens to meet their everyday health needs.

The rise and struggles of Walgreens

A lot has changed in the pharmacy industry since 1901, when Charles R. Walgreen Sr. purchased the Chicago drugstore where he served as a pharmacist. The company went public in 1927, expanded rapidly throughout the 20th century and grew to 8,000 stores by 2013. By 2014, a merger with the European pharmacy chain Alliance Boots made Walgreens one of the largest pharmacy chains in the world.

More recently, however, the picture for the pharmacy industry hasn’t been so rosy. Labor costs have risen. Front-end retail sales – things like snacks, greeting cards and cosmetics – have fallen. And financial pressures from pharmacy benefit managers – those third-party groups that manage the cost of prescription drug benefits on the behalf of insurers – have grown.

All of these things have significantly constrained revenues across the industry, leading stores to shutter. Some estimates suggest that as many as one-third of U.S. retail pharmacies have closed since 2010.

Against that backdrop, Sycamore Partners’ March acquisition of Walgreens raises big questions. What does Sycamore see in this investment, and what might their strategies imply about the future of American pharmacy care?

Framing the private equity bet

Private equity firms typically buy companies, streamline their operations and seek to sell them for a profit within five to seven years of the acquisition.

This growing movement of private equity into the global economy is by no means limited to health care. In 2020, private equity firms employed 11.7 million U.S. workers, or about 7% of the country’s total workforce. The total assets under management by such investors have grown by over 11% annually over the past two decades, a trend that’s expected to continue.

In looking at Walgreens, Sycamore, like many of these businesses, likely sees an opportunity to buy low, cut costs and improve profitability. One survey of private equity investors found that the most common self-reported sources of value creation in these deals for companies of Sycamore’s size were changing the product and marketing it more robustly to drive demand, changing incentives for those within the business, and facilitating a high-value exit.

While private owners may have more patience than public markets, critics argue that private equity firms tend to have a short-term focus, looking for quick, predictable services of margin improvement – like, for example, cutting jobs.

There’s some evidence in favor of that claim. One study found that employment often drops in the years following a private equity buyout. And if the focus shifts to repaying debt or prepping for resale, long-term projects, such as investing in future innovation, can get deprioritized.

The history of privatized public companies offers a mix of successes and failures. Dell Technologies and hotel chain Hilton are two prominent examples of companies that went private, restructured successfully and came back stronger. In those cases, going private helped management focus without the constant pressure of quarterly earnings reports.

On the other hand, companies such as Toys R Us, which was taken private in 2005 and filed for bankruptcy in 2018, show how high debt and missed innovation can lead to collapse.

What’s next for Walgreens

So, where does this leave Walgreens − and the investors involved in the deal?

If part of the returns will be driven by “buying low” – the easiest indicator of potential future success to measure as of today – Sycamore started well: Its purchase price represents a mere 8% premium over the market trading value on the day of the announcement, significantly less than the 46% seen across industries in 2023. That said, Sycamore financed 83.4% of the purchase with debt, a number on the high end for these kinds of transactions. Health care groups have pointed to this number while raising concerns that innovation-focused investments may take a back seat to debt obligations.

As the dust settles on the purchase, Sycamore has indicated an interest in splitting Walgreens into three business units: one focused on U.S. pharmacies, one on U.K. pharmacies and one on U.S. primary health care through its VillageMD subsidiary.

That’s not unusual: Sycamore has used a similar approach before with its investment in the office supply retailer Staples, a strategy that has garnered strong financial returns but been called into question for its long-term sustainability.

Given the significant financial challenges VillageMD has faced since its acquisition by Walgreens, this represents an opportunity to separately evaluate and optimize its performance. Meanwhile, Sycamore’s historic focus on retail and customer-focused businesses might help it modernize the in-store experience or optimize staffing.

For more than a century, Walgreens has survived and adapted to sweeping changes in retail. Now, it’s entering a new chapter – one that could reshape not just its own future but the role of pharmacies in American life.

Will Sycamore help Walgreens thrive, using its resources to strengthen services and deliver more value to customers? Or will pressure to generate quick returns create problems? Either way, the answer matters – not just for investors but for anyone who’s ever relied on their neighborhood pharmacy to stay healthy.

About the Author:

Patrick Aguilar, Professor of Practice of Organizational Behavior, Washington University in St. Louis and Peter Boumgarden, Professor of Family Enterprise, Washington University in St. Louis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

25 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (25,625 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (22,609 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,033 contracts)also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,017 contracts), the VIX (-1,675 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,935 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (94 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (90 percent) and Russell-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The Nasdaq-Mini (62 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 50 percent mid-point of the past 3 years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (78.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (90.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (93.1 percent)

Nikkei 225 & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (16 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (14.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-12.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (12.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	45.4	7.6
– Net Position:	4,424	-5,585	1,161
– Gross Longs:	80,402	130,533	23,915
– Gross Shorts:	75,978	136,118	22,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-15.4	1.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -96,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	74.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	71.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-96,569	51,097	45,472
– Gross Longs:	246,588	1,571,120	239,544
– Gross Shorts:	343,157	1,520,023	194,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	42.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	9.1	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	62.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	67.1	16.8
– Net Position:	8,147	-3,719	-4,428
– Gross Longs:	14,117	49,297	8,830
– Gross Shorts:	5,970	53,016	13,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	32.8	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-6.0	-16.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	55.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	57.0	15.9
– Net Position:	14,530	-3,723	-10,807
– Gross Longs:	82,637	155,475	33,720
– Gross Shorts:	68,107	159,198	44,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	49.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	28.7	-32.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	72.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.4	6.2
– Net Position:	-5,747	9,349	-3,602
– Gross Longs:	72,733	315,935	23,370
– Gross Shorts:	78,480	306,586	26,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	29.7	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	3.2	-34.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	88.1	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	89.5	1.2
– Net Position:	774	-6,447	5,673
– Gross Longs:	43,477	411,441	11,284
– Gross Shorts:	42,703	417,888	5,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	18.5	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-7.5	-14.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 May

Target to sink back to 5-year lows after today’s earnings?

By ForexTime

Target set to release earnings before US markets open today (Wed, May 21st)
US tariff fears expected to hit results for Q1 FY2026 (3 months ending April 30th)
Comparable sales forecasted to fall 1.8% year-on-year; EPS to drop over 18% y/y
Post-earnings, 1-day move predicted at 9.3% up/down for Target shares today
Wall Street analysts predict, pre-earnings, 20.8% upside over next 12 months

Target is set to unveil its fiscal Q1 earnings before US markets open today (Wed, May 21st).

At the time of writing, Target’s stocks are languishing around their lowest levels since August 2019.

Perhaps more tellingly, this stock has struggled to recover back above the psychologically-important $100 level since US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs announcement on April 2nd.

Furthermore, as of the closing price on Tuesday, May 20th, Target’s stocks remain 27.4% lower so far this year.

Such sluggishness is all the more obvious when compared to the rebound in broader US stock markets over the past month, with the benchmark S&P 500 now back up 1% year-to-date.

From a technical perspective, despite finding some measure of support at its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) in recent sessions, Target remains hemmed in by its 50-day SMA, besides the earlier-mentioned psychological $100 level.

Target to sink back to 5-year lows after today’s earnings?

Could its fortunes change by today’s market open?
Experts think it’s unlikely.

Target’s fiscal Q1 2026 earnings (three months ending 30 April 2025): What to look out for?

Overall, Wall Street analysts predict that Target’s soon-to-be-released financial figures will point to a spending pullback by Target’s cautious customers who are wary about US tariffs.

This retail giant is expected to post the following key metrics:

Comparable Sales: down 1.84%
Average transaction amount: down 1.77%

Additionally, here are other (adjusted) headline numbers to look out for:

Revenue: US$ 24 billion – lowest since fiscal Q3 2021
If so, that would mark a 2.1% drop compared to Q1 FY2025
Net income: US$ 756.7 million – lowest since fiscal Q3 2023
Earnings per share (EPS): US$1.66
If so, that would mark an 18.08% drop compared to Q1 FY2025

More importantly, traders and investors will be glued to Target’s outlook on how US consumer demand might hold up in the face of tariff threats.

Can Target draw inspiration from other retail giants?

Target bulls (those hoping this stock can push higher) will be hoping that this retail giant can emulate the earnings outlook from another retail giant: Home Depot.

Just before US markets opened on Tuesday, May 20th, Home Depot – the world’s biggest home-improvement retailer – maintained its full-year sales forecast.

And that’s despite reporting a 0.3% drop in comparable sales for its latest fiscal quarter amid similar expected dampeners to consumer spending.

Home Depot execs also said they expect:

the worst of economic concerns to be in the past
tariffs to not translate into broad price increases

To be certain, even such seemingly soothing signals were unable to prevent Home Depot’s shares from falling 0.6% post-earnings during Tuesday’s cash session.

In contrast to Home Depot, Walmart sang a different tune at its quarterly results unveiling last week.

Walmart – the largest retailer in the world – suggested that:

price spikes stemming from tariffs are starting to take hold
the company would likely pass on such costs to end users

It remains to be seen what sort of signals will be conveyed by Target’s C-suite, whether it’s more in line with Home Depot’s confidence, or Walmart’s warnings.

Potential Post-Earnings Scenarios

Note that markets currently predict that Target shares could move 9.3% up or down when US markets reopen today – Wednesday, May 21st – right after its earnings announcement.

BULLISH: Should Target unveil better-than-expected Q1 figures, and more importantly speak confidently of resilient spending among US consumers, that could launch its stock back above $107 for the first time since March.

BEARISH: Should Target announce lower-than-expected Q1 results, coupled with growing concerns about weakening US consumer spending amid persistent tariff fears, or worse – pull its earnings guidance altogether for the year – that may see Target’s stocks gapping down to open around the $89.00 level – close to its year-to-date/5-year lows.

Over the next 12 months …

Wall Street analysts are rather neutral on this stock’s 12-month prospects, with:

23 “Hold” calls
14 “Buys”
2 “Sells”

Yet Target’s stocks are predicted to have another 20.8% potential upside over the next 12 months, potentially hitting $118.51 by May 2026.

Of course, all those analysts’ forecasts and 12-month target price may change drastically in a few hours, depending on what Target conveys to markets.

Targets earnings announcement is bound to offer the latest clues on the overall health of US domestic consumption – the primary driver of the world’s largest economy – while also potentially producing outsized trading opportunities in the immediate aftermath.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

18 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,301 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,789 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-13,300 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-13,528 contracts) and with the VIX (-4,844 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) and the VIX (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (93 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is still above the 50 percent midpoint for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (69.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (69.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (62.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (71.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (93.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (83.0 percent)

Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (17 percent), the DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the VIX (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-18.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (15.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (37.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	41.3	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	44.9	12.4
– Net Position:	6,099	-10,164	4,065
– Gross Longs:	65,347	114,114	38,350
– Gross Shorts:	59,248	124,278	34,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.9	2.8	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.0	9.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -122,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	74.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-122,194	61,669	60,525
– Gross Longs:	243,291	1,572,344	250,278
– Gross Shorts:	365,485	1,510,675	189,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	44.1	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	17.6	-5.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	61.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	67.5	16.0
– Net Position:	7,114	-4,300	-2,814
– Gross Longs:	13,259	47,987	9,602
– Gross Shorts:	6,145	52,287	12,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	32.0	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-11.5	-10.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	59.0	15.4
– Net Position:	19,547	-10,153	-9,394
– Gross Longs:	85,720	157,125	34,258
– Gross Shorts:	66,173	167,278	43,652
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	42.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	19.7	-43.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	68.6	5.8
– Net Position:	-28,356	30,861	-2,505
– Gross Longs:	62,021	335,022	23,084
– Gross Shorts:	90,377	304,161	25,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	42.9	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	13.5	-30.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	90.3	1.1
– Net Position:	2,709	-8,568	5,859
– Gross Longs:	41,277	406,707	10,913
– Gross Shorts:	38,568	415,275	5,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.1	15.9	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-11.2	-15.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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