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Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE lead weekly Bullish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 22 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,312 net contracts this week with a gain of 8,476 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 7,794 net contracts this week with a weekly increase by 1,940 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -209,132 net contracts this week with a rise of 19,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 73,927 net contracts this week with a small boost by 789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with a dip of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,566,369 net contracts this week with a drop by -29,492 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -51 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 116,742 net contracts this week with a reduction by -25,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -6,247 net contracts this week with a gain of 783 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -68,512 net contracts this week with a boost by 8,460 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,379,597 net contracts this week with a drop by -54,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Aug

For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard

By Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, The University of Texas at Austin

Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?

This isn’t a hypothetical – it’s a real dilemma faced by a real business owner who spoke with one of us over coffee this past spring. And she’s not alone. As of 2023, of those U.S. companies that import goods, more than 97% of them were small businesses. For these companies, tariff uncertainty isn’t just frustrating – it’s paralyzing.

As a family business researcher and former deputy administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration and entrepreneur, we hear from a lot of small-business owners grappling with these challenges. And what they tell us is that tariff uncertainty is stressing their time, resources and attention.

The data backs up our anecdotal experience: More than 70% of small-business owners say constant shifts in trade policy create a “whiplash effect” that makes it difficult to plan, a recent national survey showed.

Unlike larger organizations with teams of analysts to inform their decision-making, small-business owners are often on their own. In an all-hands-on-deck operation, every hour spent focusing on trade policy news or filling out additional paperwork means precious time away from day-to-day, core operations. That means rapid trade policy shifts leave small businesses especially at a disadvantage.

Planning for stability in an uncertain landscape

Critics and supporters alike can agree: The Trump administration has taken an unpredictable approach to trade policy, promising and delaying new tariffs again and again. Consider its so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. Back in April, Trump pledged a baseline 10% tariff on imports from nearly everywhere, with extra hikes on many countries. Not long afterward, it hit pause on its plans for 90 days. That period just ended, and the administration followed up with a new executive order on July 31 naming different tariff rates for about 70 countries. The one constant has been change.

Bloomberg TV covers the administration’s “surprise announcements” on trade the day before a key self-imposed deadline.

This approach has upended long-standing trade relationships in a matter of days or weeks. And regardless of the outcomes, the uncertainty itself is especially disruptive to small businesses. One recent survey of 4,000 small-business owners found that the biggest challenge of tariff policies is the sheer uncertainty they cause.

This isn’t just a problem for small-business owners themselves. These companies employ nearly half of working Americans and play an essential role in the U.S. economy. That may partly explain why Americans overwhelmingly support small businesses, viewing them as positive for society and a key path for achieving the American dream. If you’re skeptical, just look at the growing number of MBA graduates who are turning down offers at big companies to buy and run small businesses.

But this consensus doesn’t always translate into policies that help small businesses thrive. In fact, because small businesses often operate on thinner margins and have less capacity to absorb disruptions, any policy shift is likely to be more difficult for them to weather than it would be for a larger firm with deeper pockets. The ongoing tariff saga is just the most recent example.

Slow, steady policies help small-business owners

Given these realities, we recommend the final negotiated changes to trade policy be rolled out slowly. Although that wouldn’t prevent businesses from facing supply chain disruptions, it would at least give them time to consider alternate suppliers or prepare in other ways. From the perspective of a small-business owner, having that space to plan can make a real difference.

Similarly, if policymakers want to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., tariffs alone can accomplish only so much. Small manufacturers need to hire people, and with unemployment at just over 4%, there’s already a shortage of workers qualified for increasingly high-skilled manufacturing roles.

Making reshoring a true long-term policy objective would require creating pathways for legal immigration and investing significantly in job training. And if the path toward reshoring is more about automation than labor, then preparing small-business owners for the changes ahead and helping them fund growth strategically will be crucial.

Small businesses would benefit from more government-backed funding and training. The Small Business Administration is uniquely positioned to support small firms as they adjust their supply chains and manufacturing – it could offer affordable financing for imports and exports, restructure existing loans that small businesses have had to take on, and offer technical support and education on new regulations and paperwork. Unfortunately, the SBA has slashed 43% of its workforce and closed offices in major cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, New Orleans and Los Angeles. We think this is a step in the wrong direction.

Universities also have an important role to play in supporting small businesses. Research shows that teaching core management skills can improve key business outcomes, such as profitability and growth. We recommend business and trade schools increase their focus on small firms and the unique challenges they face. Whether through executive programs for small-business owners or student consulting projects, universities have a significant opportunity to lean into supporting Main Street entrepreneurs.

Thirty-five million small businesses are the engine of the U.S. economy. They are the job creators in cities and towns across this country. They are the heartbeat of American communities. As the nation undergoes rapid and profound policy shifts, we encourage leaders in government and academia to take action to ensure that Main Streets across America not only endure but thrive.

The authors would like to thank Gretchen Abraham and Matt Sonneborn for their support.

About the Author:

Peter Boumgarden, Professor of Family Enterprise, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, Associate Professor of Instruction, Department of Business, Government and Society, The University of Texas at Austin

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

09 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq & Palladium lead Top Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 5th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the most extreme standings this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,854 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,860 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 27 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,836 net contracts this week with a small decrease of -1,118 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position takes the next position in the extreme standings this week with the Palladium speculator level sitting at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 16 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,335 net contracts this week with a drop of -482 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position slides in next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 86 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -228,367 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -76,972 net contracts this week with a reduction by -14,824 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,536,877 net contracts this week with a decline of -24,994 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -7,030 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,874 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Next, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -43 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 141,829 net contracts this week with a reduction of -14,194 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fifth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge lower by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -81,610 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,061 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

30 Jul

Mag 7 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Faces $11 Trillion Test

By ForexTime

4 of “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings
Combined market cap of 4 tech titans over $11 trillion
Beyond earnings, key focus on tariff impact & AI spending
Meta could move almost 6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Apple shares ↓ over 15% year-to-date

Four of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants with a combined market capitalization of over $11 trillion are set to publish their results this week.

And this could be pivotal for markets given the ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s tariff drama. Investors will be eager to learn from these titans how global trade developments have affected their businesses.

Note: A volley of country-specific tariffs will take effect on August 1st, with the United States only securing six trade deals as of writing. There could be a potential extension of a tariff pause between the US and China.

Fresh updates from Mag 7 companies Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple will be in focus.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports on its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday 30th July after US markets close.

Shares of the tech giant have gained over 20% year-to-date, with Wall Street analysts expecting Microsoft to post revenue and income growth amid growing AI demand. Quarterly revenues are projected to jump by 14% to $73.9 billion, while earnings per share are forecast to increase to $3.37 from $2.95 the same time a year ago.

Beyond revenue growth, updates on the Azure cloud service and AI initiatives will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 3.9% move, either up or down, for Microsoft shares post earnings.

2) Meta

Meta is set to report second-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 30th July.

Shares of this tech titan are up almost 20% since the start of 2025, powered by the hunger for AI. Quarterly revenues are forecast to rise $44.8 billion – marking a 15% jump from a year earlier while EPS are seen jumping to $5.89 from $5.16.

Markets are forecasting a 5.8% move, either up or down, for Meta shares post earnings.

3) Amazon

Amazon is scheduled to report second quarter earnings after US markets close on Thursday 31st July.

The tech giant is expected to report a nearly 10% jump in revenues to $162.1 billion while earnings per share are projected to increase to $1.32 from $1.26 the same time a year ago. Amazon Web Services has shown dominance in the cloud computing space, so the AWS and advertising business will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5% move, either up or down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

4) Apple

Apple reports its quarterly results after the closing bell on Thursday 31st July.

It has been a rough year for Apple thus far with its share down over 15% year-to-date.

The iPhone maker is expected to report 4% revenue growth amid improving services revenue and iPhone sales. Still, investors will be looking for updates on investment in Apple Intelligence and sales in China.

Markets are forecasting a 3.5% move, either up or down, for Apple shares post earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

25 Jul

Week Ahead: Heavy hitter line up to rock US500?

By ForexTime

US500 ↑ over 8% YTD, recently touching ATH
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple = nearly 20% of US500 weight
US GDP, PCE & NFP could influence Fed cut bets
Trump’s tariff deadline = Liberation Day 2.0?
Technical levels: 6400, 6350 and 6300

If you thought the last few days were eventful, just wait until you see the calendar for the week ahead…

Rate decisions by major central banks, top-tier economic reports, corporate earnings from tech titans, and Trump’s tariff deadline will be in focus:

Sunday, 27th July

CN50: China industrial profits

Monday, 28th July

US-China trade talks in Stockholm

Tuesday, 29th July

AUD: Austria UniCredit Bank Austria manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
SPN35: Spain GDP, retail sales
UK100: Barclays earnings.
US500: Conference Board, consumer confidence, job openings

Wednesday, 30th July

AUD: Australia CPI
CAD: Canada rate decision
EU50: Eurozone GDP, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany GDP
US500: US Fed rate decision, GDP, ADP employment, US Treasury quarterly refunding, Microsoft, Meta earnings

Thursday, 31st July

AUD: Australia retail sales
CAD: Canada GDP
CN50: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany CPI, unemployment
JP225: Japan rate decision, industrial production, retail sales
ZAR: South Africa rate decision, trade
US500: US consumer income/spending, PCE price index, jobless claims, Apple, Amazon earnings

Friday, 1st August

AU200: Austria CPI
CN50: China S&P Global manufacturing PMI
EU50: Eurozone CPI, Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan unemployment, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
GBP: UK trade, S&P Global manufacturing PMI
US500: US NFP, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
Trump-imposed deadline for the US tariff pause ends

The spotlight shines on FXTM’s US500, which has gained over 8% year-to-date.

Note: FXTM’s US500 tracks the underlying S&P 500 index

US equities have been pushing higher with the US500 recently touching fresh all-time highs amid optimism about trade deals.

Here are 4 factors that could trigger significant moves:

1) Fed rate decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged in July, but any clues about future moves may shape the US500’s outlook.

Note: The latest US CPI report increased to 2.7% in June.

The US500 could rise if the Fed strikes a dovish tone and signals lower rates down the road.
Should Powell strike a hawkish note and suggest that rates may remain steady, it could drag the US500.

US500 is forecasted to move 1.5% up or down 1.4% in a 6-hour window after the Fed rate decision.

2) US data dump: Q2 GDP, PCE, ISM & NFP

A string of high-impact US data releases may influence Fed cut bets for the second half of 2025, impacting the US500 as a result.

Wednesday 30th July – Q2 GDP, ADP employment

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.5% up or down 0.8% in a 6-hour window after the US GDP report.

Thursday 31st July – US PCE price index, jobless claims

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 1.3% up or down 1.0% in a 6-hour window after the US PCE report.

Friday 1st August– US June NFP, ISM manufacturing

Note: US500 is forecasted to move 0.7% up or down 1.6% in a 6-hour window after the US NFP report.

Traders are currently pricing in one Fed rate cut in 2025 with the odds of a second cut by December at 70%.

Any significant shifts in these bets may impact the US500.

A set of figures that support the argument around lower rates may boost the US500.
Should data cool bets around lower rates, this may weigh on the US500.

3) Big tech set for big moves?

Four of the “Magnificent” 7 tech titans with a combined market cap of over $11 trillion are set to publish their latest results.

Quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple could offer key insight into how the tech industry fared last quarter.

It is worth noting that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple makes up just under 20% of the US500!

A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may push the US500 higher.
Should results disappoint and concerns be expressed about the business outlook, the US500 could fall.

4) Trump’s tariff deadline

A barrage of country-specific tariffs will take effect on Friday, August 1st, unless targeted partners reach a deal with the United States.

So far, a deal has been struck with the UK, Vietnam, Japan, Philippines, and Indonesia, while there is optimism around a US-EU trade deal. Talks are still ongoing with China, with the third round of negotiations kicking off on Monday 28th.

The US government has only secured 5 trade deals, well below what was pledged on “Liberation Day” back in April. So, the question is whether markets could be headed for “Liberation Day 2.0” as time runs out.

If risk aversion returns with a vengeance, this may drag the US500 lower.

5) Technical forces

The US500 remains firmly bullish with prices closing above the 6350 psychological level. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are heavily overbought.

Should 6350 prove reliable support, this may push prices toward 6400 and 6450.
Weakness below 6350 may drag prices back toward 6300 and 6220.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

24 Jul

Taiwan Looks to Drones to Fight China

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/22/25)

Like with this island in East Asia, militaries around the world are increasingly using drones, a staple in their arsenal, in conflict or training. This trend could benefit companies in the sector, including New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR:NASDAQ), AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO:NASDAQ), AML3D Ltd. (AL3:ASX), and Firestorm Labs Inc.

The constant threat that China will invade Taiwan at any moment has the island continuing to prepare for war against the powerful country.

“Beijing’s Chinese Communist Party government claims Taiwan as its territory, though it has never ruled the island, and China’s rapid military buildup and coercive actions in the Taiwan Strait have led its neighbor to boost defense spending and order a series of high-profile weapons systems from the U.S.,” wrote Newsweek on July 15.

Last month Taiwan tested a first person-view kamikaze sea drone called Overkill, according to Firstpost. The government aims to build up to 25,000 of these units, equipped with artificial intelligence-enabled targeting and a precision camera.

Also, Taiwan just completed the largest version ever of its annual Han Kuan military exercise, reported Business Insider on July 14. The dual focus was on countering a Chinese invasion and, for the possibility such an event is successful, carrying out contingency plans.

“This comes as Taipei’s current government, known for resisting Beijing, grows increasingly concerned about emerging hostilities with mainland China,” the article explained. “Chinese leader Xi Jinping has pledged to reunify the island under Beijing’s control, and said his country would never renounce its right to use force to reach that goal.”

Other countries in the Asia-Pacific are preparing for an eventual China-Taiwan conflict, too. The Philippines, for example, is advancing a US$35 billion military modernization program, noted Newsweek. One of its several goals is to integrate into ground operations command and control systems, drones, and intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) tools, noted Inquirer.net.

As with the China-Taiwan tensions and other recent geopolitical conflicts around the globe, drones are increasingly taking center stage. For example, in the ongoing Myanmar conflict, both sides are now using drones, and so much so, the country ranks third, after Ukraine and Russia, for the number of drone events, according to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data in a July 1 article.

“This isn’t a tactical shift — but rather the start of a military revolution, tearing apart the old rules of war,” wrote Antonio Salinas and Jason P. LeVay, U.S. military analysts, in a May article. “What was once ‘no man’s land’ between trenches is now a drone kill zone, patrolled by flying munitions that loiter, observe, and strike with terrifying accuracy.”

All armed forces must adapt to this new reality, the authors asserted, or suffer total defeat in war.

Companies that could stand to benefit from drones dominating the battlefield, as well as increasing conflicts around the globe, include:

New Horizon Aircraft

Based in Ontario, Canada, New Horizon Aircraft Ltd. (HOVR:NASDAQ) is an advanced aerospace engineering company doing business as Horizon Aircraft and developing hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing, or eVTOL, aircraft, according to its website.

Its prototype, the Cavorite X7, can take off vertically, but once in flight, its wing system reverts to that of a conventional airplane, providing the same speed, range, and operational utility. This hybrid eVTOL prototype is designed to fly in bad weather, including icy conditions, and it emits 30% less hydrocarbons than a traditional plane. Currently, the prototype is in a flight-testing phase. After completing this, Horizon intends to obtain certification of the Cavorite X7 and then scale production to meet demand from customers, including the military.

Recently, Horizon and ZeroAvia, a global hydrogen-electric powertrain company, announced their plan to collaboratively develop regional hydrogen-electric VTOL air travel, noted a news release.

Richard Ryan, analyst at Oak Ridge Financial Research, noted in his June 16 research report that in mid-May, Horizon achieved a full wing transition flight of Cavorite X7. A U.S. Executive Order signed subsequently intends to accelerate the safe commercialization of drone and other emerging technologies, such as eVTOL aircraft.

In light of these internal and external developments, Oak Ridge increased its target price on New Horizon by 45%. The new target implies a 44% return from HOVR’s share price at the close on July 18. Oak Ridge rates the company Buy.

D. Boral Capital Analyst Jesse Sobelson has a Buy rating on New Horizon and a target price suggesting 16.3% uplift, as noted in his June 9 research report. The consensus target price, according to Refinitiv, reflects 11.6% upside.

Refinitiv also reports that 14 strategic entities own 46.59% of New Horizon. The Top 3 are Canso Group with 16.23%, Robinson Family Ventures Inc. with 7.63% and William Brumder with 7.29%. Six institutional investors hold 0.34%. The rest is in retail.

New Horizon has 31.39 million (31.39M) outstanding shares and 16.76M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$53.98 million (US$53.98M). Its 52-week range is US$0.24–2.52 per share.

AIRO Group

AIRO Group Holdings Inc. (AIRO:NASDAQ) is an aerospace and defense company headquartered in Albuquerque, N.M., whose four divisions are drones, avionics, electric air mobility and training, notes the website. The drones segment develops, manufactures and sells drones. Military drones are sold through the Sky-Watch brand.

In recent news, AIRO concluded a highly specialized 90-day training support mission for Naval Special Warfare, “building on strong revenue growth in 2024 and H1/25 in its military training division,” as announced in a news release. The company provides elite training solutions to the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps’ Joint Terminal Attack Controller program.

According to Refinitiv, the consensus target price on AIRO suggests 8% return from the company’s share price at the end of trading on July 18. TipRanks reports that three analysts cover AIRO, and all of them rate it Buy.

As for ownership, Refinitiv reports that nine strategic investors own 64.71% of AIRO. The Top 3 are AIRO Executive Chairman Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria with 19.46%, New Generation Aerospace LLC with 15.37% and Carter Aviation Technologies LLC with 11.1%. The rest is in retail.

AIRO has 26.17M outstanding shares and 9.24M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$688.13M. its 52-week range is US$12.90–38.07 per share.

AML3D Ltd.

AML3D Ltd. (AL3:ASX; AMLDF:OTCPK), based in Australia, specializes in large-scale metal three-dimensional (3D) printing using its patented wire additive manufacturing process that combines welding science, robotics automation, materials engineering, and proprietary software, the company’s website explains. The company manufactures and sells industrial metal 3D printers under the ARCEMY brand as well as large, high-performance metal components and structures, to defense, aerospace, maritime, manufacturing, mining, and oil and gas customers.

Earlier this month, AML3D received a letter of intent (LOI) from the U.S. Navy to collaborate on several key additive manufacturing initiatives. “The LOI focuses on AML3D’s ability to support materials characterization, parts manufacturing and supply of large scale ARCEMY metal 3D printing systems,” the news release noted.

Daniel Laing, Bell Potter analyst, and Abraham Akra, Shaw and Partners analyst, both cover AML3D. In a July 20 flash note, Bell Potter analyst Daniel Laing gave the company a Buy rating an US$0.35 valuation.

According to Refinitiv, 17 strategic entities own 16.58% of AML3D. The insider with the largest share is Andrew Sales, AML3D’s executive director and chief technology officer, with 4.84%.

Two institutions hold 10.76%. They are Netwealth Investments Ltd. with 5.78% and Regal Funds Management Pty. Ltd. with 4.97%. The rest is in retail.

AML3D has 542.14M outstanding shares and 451.77M free float traded shares. Its market cap is AU$112.54M. Its 52-week range is AU$0.105–0.325 per share.

Firestorm Labs Inc.

Firestorm Labs, a private company headquartered in San Diego, Calif., develops modular, open-architecture drones for rapid deployment in combat and expeditionary environments, according to its website. Its products integrate ISR, electronic warfare/signals intelligence and kinetic payload capabilities. Firestorm’s drones are mission adaptable and can be built any time, anywhere.

“Our unique ability to 3D print modular airframes on site dramatically reduces production timelines, costs and logistical constraints, giving the U.S. and allied forces the adaptive technology they urgently need in complex and contested operational environments,” Dan Magy, Firestorm chief executive officer, said in a July 16 news release.

This release announced that Firestorm secured US$47M in Series A funding. Lockheed Martin Ventures, Decisive Point, Washington Harbour Partners, Booz Allen Ventures, and other defense-focused investors participated in the round led by New Enterprise Associates.

Firestorm will use the capital to advance its additive-manufacturing platform, accelerate in-theater drone production, and scale xCell. xCell produces UAS systems and any 3d printed assets as required, but it’s primary purpose is not to house the above. It serves as a modular micro factory.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Firestorm.
Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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23 Jul

FXTM’s JP225 soars on US-Japan trade deal

By ForexTime

FXTM’s JP225 ↑ over 4% on trade deal, hits 12 month high
US to impose 15% tariffs on Japanese imports, lower than threatened 25%
Yen gains capped by political risk, despite trade ‘massive’ deal.
Japan PM Ishiba denies reports of stepping down
New FXTM JPC crosses tumble as JP225 surges

Japanese shares surged on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a ‘massive’ trade deal with Japan after eight rounds of negotiations!

FXTM’s JP225 which tracks the underlying Nikkei 225 index jumped more than 4% – hitting its highest level since July 2024.

More gains could be on the cards given how this removes uncertainty around trade and boosts sentiment toward the Japanese economy.

What are the details on the ‘massive’ deal?

US to impose 15% tariffs on all Japanese imports, including automobiles – lower than threatened 25% rate set to take effect August 1st.
Japan to also create US$550 billion fund for US-bound investments.
Japan to buy 100 Boeing aircrafts, increase rice purchases by 75%, buy US$8 billion of agricultural products.
Japan to spend US$17 billion per year on American defense firms – up from $ 8 billion annually.
Japan to be guaranteed lowest US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

How did the Japanese Yen react?

The USDJPY dipped to its lowest level since July 11th on the positive trade news, as it raised the odds of a potential BoJ hike in 2025.

However, gains were surrendered following reports that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba intended to step down next month. Ishiba later denied these reports, which offered some support to the Yen.

Traders are currently pricing an 80% probability of a BoJ rate hike by the end of 2025.

Watch out for political risk…

Last Sunday, Japan’s ruling coalition failed to gain a majority in the upper house elections as widely expected. It is worth noting that nine months ago, the coalition lost a majority in the more powerful lower chamber of parliament.

This will be the first time that the governing LDP has lost a majority in both chambers since its inception in 1955.

Such a development may pressure Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to step down, resulting in fresh political uncertainty.

By the way… FXTM has launched 4 new JPC crosses!

And they are buzzing with activity following Trump’s ‘massive’ trade deal.

The rally on the JP225 (Nikkei 225) has dragged these JPC crosses lower today:

CHCJPC (CN50 vs JP225): ↓3.8%
DJCJPC (US30 vs JP225): ↓4.2%
NACJPC (NAS100 vs JP225): ↓3.7%
SPCJPC (US500 vs JP225): ↓3.7%

JPC crosses could experience steeper declines if the JP225 continues to surge on trade optimism.

However, political risk down the road may limit the downside and spark a potential rebound.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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18 Jul

Week Ahead: Alphabet & Tesla in focus as “MAG 7” earnings kick off

By ForexTime

2 of ‘Magnificent 7’ set to publish earnings on Wednesday
Alphabet ↑ 4% month-to-date, 11% away from ATH
Tesla ↓ 21% year-to-date
Alphabet: Shares could move 5.3% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Tesla: Shares could move 5.6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings

The week ahead is stacked with high-impact events and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world:

Sunday, 20th July

JP225: Japan upper house election

Monday, 21st July

CN50: China loan prime rates
NZD: New Zealand CPI
UK100: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speech
USDInd: US Conference Board leading index

Tuesday, 22nd July

AUD: RBA meeting minutes
NZD: New Zealand trade
NGN: Nigeria rate decision
TWN: Taiwan export orders, jobless rate
US500: US Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech

Wednesday, 23rd July

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
USDInd: US existing home sales
NAS100: Alphabet, Tesla earnings
President Donald Trump speech on A.I.

Thursday, 24th July

CAD: Canada retail sales
EUR: ECB rate decision, Germany PMI & Consumer confidence
JPY: Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Gfk Consumer Confidence
US500: Initial jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Intel earnings

Friday, 25th July

GER40: Germany IFO business climate, Volkswagen earnings
UK100: UK retail sales
EUR: ECB survey of professional forecasters
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
SG20: Singapore industrial production

Earnings season is in full swing with US banks reporting strong results. Next up will be results from big tech companies, which may inject fresh volatility into US equity markets.

Two of the so-called ‘Magnificent 7’ tech titans will be under the spotlight.

1) Alphabet

Alphabet, the parent company of Google reports its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday 23rd July after US markets close.

Its shares gained 14% in Q2 amid strong AI product demand and growth in the cloud business. However, bulls may need a fresh catalyst to push Alphabet’s year-to-date gains out of the red.

This could come in the form of strong earnings and robust advertising revenue growth.

Beyond earnings, updates on its cloud, ad business and AI innovations will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5.3% move, either up or down, for Alphabet stocks post earnings.

2) Tesla

Tesla is also set to release its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of US trading.

It’s been a rough year for the EV maker thanks to the political drama between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Earlier this month, Trump threatened to withdraw government subsidies from Elon Musk’s companies – further weighing on Tesla shares.

Tesla is down over 20% year-to-date and could extend losses if its latest quarterly results are below market expectations.

Markets are forecasting a 5.6% move, either up or down, for Tesla stocks post-earnings.

What does this mean for FXTM’s NAS100

FXTM’s NAS100 tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.
Alphabet and Tesla are part of the top 10 constituents, making up just over 10% of its weight.
The index is up 10% since the start of 2025, recently hitting a fresh all-time high above 23100.
Key levels of interest can be found at 23500, 23000 & 22600.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

17 Jul

TSMC hits record high ahead of earnings release

By ForexTime

US-listed TSMC shares ↑ 20% YTD
Shares hit new all-time highs on Tuesday
Forward guidance for Q3 in focus
TSMC makes up over 20% of FXTM’s TWN index
Technical levels for TSMC – $240, $225 and $218

US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) surged to a fresh all-time high on Tuesday!

Note: TSMC shares can be traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

These gains have further solidified TSMC’s trillion-dollar valuation with sentiment firmly bullish after revenues rose a better-than-anticipated 39% in Q2. Its shares are up 20% year-to-date, adding to the 90% gains secured in 2024.

Most importantly, the chipmaker is a key supplier to Nvidia, which has achieved a $4 trillion market valuation. This welcome development, along with a positive earnings report could push the company’s stock to fresh records.

When will earnings be published?

TSMC will report second-quarter earnings on Thursday 17th before US markets open.

Market expectations

The chipmaker is expected to post earnings of $2.50 per share, with Q2 revenues rising to $31.70 billion from $20.82 billion in the prior year, marking a 52% increase.

What to watch out for

TSMC remains exposed to Trump’s tariff drama, with Taiwan hit with a steep tariff of 32% effective from August 1st.
Although Taiwan is said to be entering the final stages of a trade deal with the United States, the clock is ticking. The CEO of TSMC stated that tariffs had some impact on TSMC but not directly because tariffs are imposed on importers not exporters.
It will also be interesting to see if anything is mentioned about Nvidia winning approval from the Trump administration to sell its AI chips to China.

What does this mean for FXTM’s TWN index.

FXTM’s TWN index tracks the underlying FTSE Taiwan RIC Capped Index.
And TSMC makes up just over 20% of the index weight, meaning that the upcoming earnings could result in heightened volatility.
The index is up nearly 3% this month but still flat year-to-date. Prices have been trending higher in recent weeks with the all-time high roughly 7% away at 2049.
Key levels of interest can be found at 1970, 1900 and 1830.

How will TSMC shares react?

Markets are forecasting a 1.5% move, either up or down, for TSMC stocks on Thursday post earnings.

Technical picture

TSMC shares are firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 70 – signaling that prices may be overbought.

A decline below $225.00 may see prices test $218 and the 50-day SMA at $206.
Should $225 prove to be reliable support, this may open a path toward fresh all-time highs at $240 and beyond.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

14 Jul

Week Ahead: Looming “golden cross” teases US30 bulls

By ForexTime

US30 ↑ roughly 5% year-to-date, less than 2% away from ATH
Trump tariff drama + US CPI + big bank earnings = volatility?
JPMorgan & Goldman Sachs = almost 14% of US30 weight
US30 forecasted to move ↑ 0.8% or ↓ 1.4% post CPI
Technical levels: 45000, 44200 & 44000

A flurry of high-risk events may pump FXTM’s US30 with fresh volatility next week.

Prices have been in a range since the start of July amid the ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs. Just yesterday, Trump threatened Canada with 35% tariffs and 15% to 20% blanket levies on most trade partners.

Note: FXTM’s US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

Top-tier data, including the US inflation report and earnings from big US banks, could present new trading opportunities:

Monday, 14th July

CN50: China trade
JP225: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
BITCOIN: Crypto week kicks off

Tuesday, 15th July

CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence
CAD: Canada CPI, housing starts
GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
US30: US June CPI, Empire State Manufacturing, JPMorgan Chase earnings, Fed speech
US500: Wells Fargo, Citigroup earnings

Wednesday, 16th July

ZAR: South Africa retail sales
UK100: UK CPI
US30: US PPI, industrial production, Goldman Sachs earnings, Fed Beige book, Fed speech
US500: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings

Thursday, 17th July

AUD: Australia unemployment
EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB blackout period
NZD: New Zealand food prices
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
US30: US retail sales, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed factory index, business inventories
TWN: TSMC earnings

Friday, 18th July

JPY: Japan CPI
USDInd: US housing starts, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

FXTM’s US30 is up roughly 5% year-to-date, with prices trading less than 2% away from the all-time high at 45156.2.

Here are 3 factors that may rock the US30:

1) US bank earnings

Second-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off on Tuesday 15th July, led by banking giants JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley report their earnings the day after.

US banks are expected to report strong earnings amid relaxed capital requirements, an increase in trading revenues and high interest rates.

It is worth noting that financials make up almost 27% of the US30’s weight with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs accounting for nearly 14%!

So, the upcoming earnings from US banks are a big deal for the index.

Markets are forecasting a 3.2% move, either Up or Down, for JPMorgan Chase stocks post-earnings
Markets are forecasting a 3.5% move, either Up or Down, for Goldman Sachs stocks post-earnings.

2) US June CPI report – Tuesday 15th July

The incoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) may impact bets around Fed cuts in the second half of this year.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (July 2025 vs. July 2024) to rise 2.6% from 2.4% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to rise 2.9% from 2.8%.
CPI month-on-month (July 2025 vs June 2024) to rise 0.3% from 0.1%
Core CPI month-on-month to rise 0.3% from 0.1% in the prior month

Signs of rising inflation pressures may shave bets around the Fed cutting interest rates.

Note: Speeches from various Fed officials and key US data, including PPI, retail sales, and the Beige Book, may impact the US30 after the CPI report on Tuesday.

US30 is forecast to move 0.8% up or 1.4% down in a 6-hour window after the US CPI report.

3) Technical forces

The US30 remains bullish on the daily charts with a potential “golden cross” pattern in the making.

This is A technical event, when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses above its 200-day SMA. Such a development is seen as a bullish sign that prices will rise further.

Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading near oversold territory.

Should 44200/44000 prove reliable support regions, prices may rebound back toward 45000 and the all-time high at 45156.
Sustained weakness below 44000 may open a path back toward 43500.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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