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Archive for Stock Market News – Page 17

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (15,053 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (9,700 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (2,234 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,753 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,786 contracts), the VIX (-105 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-121 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-28-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,279,89428-65,0275521,9594343,06854
VIX390,75267-47,5367848,57619-1,04091
Nasdaq-Mini293,315757,27850-10,902313,62481
DowJones-Mini98,35761-24,6082729,42778-4,81920
Nikkei 225 Yen65,6796515,065814,80124-19,86643
Nikkei 22517,20443-2,360501,5044585639

 


Strength Scores led by the VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (78 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (55 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (77.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (26.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (41.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (49.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)

 

DowJones-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-16 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-30.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-28.4 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.148.96.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.336.57.0
– Net Position:-47,53648,576-1,040
– Gross Longs:90,304191,02526,270
– Gross Shorts:137,840142,44927,310
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.519.591.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.511.238.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.473.311.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.272.39.5
– Net Position:-65,02721,95943,068
– Gross Longs:281,7091,671,401258,805
– Gross Shorts:346,7361,649,442215,737
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.042.954.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-2.99.1

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.665.011.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.635.116.8
– Net Position:-24,60829,427-4,819
– Gross Longs:22,19663,96311,679
– Gross Shorts:46,80434,53616,498
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.977.820.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.9-18.31.1

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.856.714.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.460.413.3
– Net Position:7,278-10,9023,624
– Gross Longs:78,702166,32942,502
– Gross Shorts:71,424177,23138,878
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.130.881.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.91.515.0

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,493 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.780.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.771.14.2
– Net Position:-55,49352,1493,344
– Gross Longs:75,264444,00126,746
– Gross Shorts:130,757391,85223,402
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.158.436.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.60.926.0

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.165.121.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.856.416.5
– Net Position:-2,3601,504856
– Gross Longs:2,25011,2043,693
– Gross Shorts:4,6109,7002,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.845.039.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.71.3-1.4

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -62,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.891.43.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.077.31.9
– Net Position:-62,03257,2524,780
– Gross Longs:19,593372,69312,373
– Gross Shorts:81,625315,4417,593
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.096.140.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.929.211.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Week Ahead: SPX500_m poised for a ‘Santa Rally’?

By ForexTime 

  • S&P 500 gains 8.9% in November
  • December historically good month for stocks
  • Keep eye on US jobs report and ‘Santa Rally’ chatter
  • Prices trending higher but RSI signals overbought
  • Can SPX500_m bulls maintain hunger for gains?

Christmas may have come early for investors after the S&P 500 ended November 8.9% higher!

This was not only its biggest monthly gain since July 2022 but also its fourth-best month in 10 years.

As we enter December, the stock index could see heightened volatility thanks to key US economic data and growing chatter about a ‘Santa Claus Rally’.

Monday, 4th December

  • USD: US factory orders, durable goods

Tuesday, 5th December

  • CNH: China Caixin services PMI
  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
  • JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
  • USD: US ISM Services, Job openings

Wednesday, 6th December

  • AUD: Australia GDP
  • CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
  • GBP: Bank of England biannual stability report
  • USD: US trade

Thursday, 7th December

  • CNH: China trade, forex reserves
  • AUD: Australia trade balance
  • EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
  • USD: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 8th December

  • JPY: Japan household spending, GDP
  • EUR: Germany CPI
  • USD: US jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

US equity bulls remain supported by cooling inflation, positive US economic data, and growing speculation around the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. This is reflected in the SPX500_m which has created consistently higher highs and higher lows on the daily timeframe.

Note: SPX500_m tracks the S&P 500 index (the benchmark used to measure the stock performance of the 500 largest listed US companies)

With exactly one month left until the end of 2023, the question is whether SPX500_m bulls can maintain their hunger for gains.

Here are 3 factors to keep an eye on in the week ahead:

  1. ‘Santa Rally’ chatter 

With Christmas just around the corner, discussion around a potential ‘Santa Clause Rally’ is likely to be widely discussed across the board.

This financial phenomenon is where stocks generally rise in the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year. 

It is not fully clear whether it’s purely psychological or triggered by some underlying financial forces, but history has shown that this is a recurring seasonal pattern.

Indeed, December has been a historically positive month for the S&P500 which has produced positive returns 75% of the time since 1994.

Markets seem to be in good spirits with chatter about a ‘Santa Rally’ possibly influencing the index over the next few weeks.

  1. US November jobs report 

On the data front, the US non-farm payrolls could offer fresh clues about what action the Federal Reserve will take beyond 2023.

The US economy is expected to have created 200,000 jobs in November, a noticeable pickup from the 150,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.9% while average hourly earnings are expected to tick lower to 4.0% year-on-year.

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 29% of the S&P 500 weighting, the incoming jobs report could spark volatility.

Note: Tech stocks influenced by interest rates because their value is based on earnings forecasted in the future.

Traders are currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March 2024, with a cut by May 2024 fully priced, according to Fed Funds futures.

  • The SPX500_m is likely to trade lower if the US jobs report meets or exceeds forecasts and investors re-evaluate when the Fed will cut rates in 2024.
  • Should the US jobs report market expectations, this could reinforce bets around the Fed cutting rates – supporting the SPX500_m as a result.
  1. Technical forces

The SPX500_m remains in a bullish channel on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. Although the path of least resistance points north, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 70 – suggesting that prices are heavily overbought. A technical rebound could be a possibility before bulls return to the driving seat.

  • The support at 4525 could provide bulls the foundation to attack the 2023 high at 4611 and 4660 – a level not seen since January 2022.
  • Should prices slip back under 4525, this may open a path back towards 4500 and 4470, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: SPX500_m eyes 2023 high

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m up roughly 9% in November
  • Key US data and Powell speech may rock index
  • Prices trending higher with bulls eyeing 2023 high
  • Watch out for RSI which remains in overbought territory

The SPX500_m is on track for its biggest monthly gain since July 2022 and fourth-best month in the last 10 years!

November has been a stellar month for the stock index which is currently up roughly 9% as of writing.

Equity bulls remain empowered by growing speculation around the Fed cutting interest rates in 2024. With the upside momentum in full swing after prices blasted through a previous resistance level, the next key level of interest may be the 2023 high.

Should economic data and dovish remarks from Fed officials reinforce bets around Fed cuts next year, this could keep SPX500_m bulls in a position of power.

Taking a look at the technical picture, prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

It is a similar story on the weekly timeframe with prices approaching the 4600 resistance level. Beyond this point, the next key level of interest can be found at 4820 – a level not seen since January 2022.

One key thing that stands out in the daily timeframe is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) which remains around 70. With prices deep in overbought territory, a technical throwback could be around the corner before prices push higher.

  • Bulls remain in control above the 4525 level with the next key point of interest at 4611.

  • Should prices slip back under 4525, this may trigger a decline toward 4500 and 4470, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Analysts: Apple Stock Still Has Room To Grow

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/17/23)

Some analysts say the stock of tech giant Apple Inc., the world’s most valuable company with a US$2.95 trillion market cap, still has room to grow.

Tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ), the world’s most valuable company with a US$2.95 trillion market cap, met some Wall Street expectations with its recent fourth-quarter results but missed others. However, some analysts agree there is still room to grow with the stock.

AAPL earlier this month posted revenue of US$89.5 billion for the fourth quarter ending Sept. 30, down 1% over the same quarter in 2022, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of US$1.46, up 13% YoY.

While Apple’s revenue has slipped in the last few quarters compared with 2022, its gross margins are expanding, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote, according to Barrons.

“Fundamentally, it has been an improvement in product gross margins, which have grown an average of ~170 bps per year since 2020, vs. declining ~140 bps per year between 2015 and 2020,” wrote Sacconaghi about basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point.

The analyst has a Market Perform rating on Apple’s stock with a target of US$195 per share.

The company’s Q4 FY2023 iPhone revenue went up 3% to US$43.8 billion YoY, which is in line with Wall Street predictions.

The Catalyst: Services Growth Beats Estimates

While the revenue for some of Apple’s product categories declined — wearables were down 3%, iPad revenue was down 10%, and Mac revenue was down 33% — some analysts pointed to the strong performance of the company’s Services segment as a bright spot. The division includes the App Store, AppleCare, iCloud data storage, Apple Pay, Apple Music, and Apple TV+.

“Fundamentally, it has been an improvement in product gross margins, which have grown an average of ~170 bps per year since 2020, vs. declining ~140 bps per year between 2015 and 2020,” wrote Sacconaghi.

That segment was up 16% YoY to US$22.3 billion and beat analysts’ estimates.

“Underlying iPhone and Services growth looks relatively healthy in the holiday quarter and generally in line with whisper numbers,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, according to Benzinga. Ives rated the stock Outperform with a price target of US$240 per share.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng, who has a Buy rating with a price target of US$227 per share on AAPL, agreed.

“iPhone installed base continues to compound, with the iPhone active installed base reaching a record F4Q23 and benefitting from a record number of switchers in F2023 driven in part by expansion into emerging markets and a growing installed base in Apple Watch, Mac, and iPad,” Ng said.

Personal Computer Pioneer

Apple started in 1976, and its Apple II became one of the first mass-produced microcomputers. Its Macintosh computer, released in 1984, pioneered a graphical-user interface that directly influenced how we use our computers even now.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng, who has a Buy rating with a price target of US$227 per share on AAPL, agreed.

The company’s software now provides a connected ecosystem across several platforms – Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watches, and Apple TVs. In 2018, it became the first publicly traded U.S. company to be valued at more than US$1 trillion, and its market capitalization rose to over US$3 trillion earlier this year. Its other products include AirPods wireless headphones and HomePod Mini smart speakers.

This year, Apple introduced its much-anticipated new virtual reality headset, Vision Pro, which is scheduled for availability early next year at US$3,499.

“Apple is pleased to report a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record in Services,” Apple Chief Executive Office Tim Cook said on the release of the figures. “We now have our strongest lineup of products ever heading into the holiday season, including the iPhone 15 lineup and our first carbon-neutral Apple Watch models, a major milestone in our efforts to make all Apple products carbon neutral by 2030.”

China Fears ‘Overblown,’ Analysts Say

Some analysts also agreed that fears of Apple losing iPhone market share in China could be overstated. Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang rates Apple Outperform with a US$200 per share price target.

“Fears of iPhone’s share loss in Mainland China to Huawei seem overblown when iPhone likely gained share in F4Q,” Yang wrote, according to Benzinga. “We expect investor concerns over China share loss to mostly dissolve heading into FY24.”

Yang said Apple’s financial results were solid given a “very tough macro backdrop,” Barrons reported.

Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang rates Apple Outperform with a US$200 per share price target.

“We continue to favor its long-term growth potential and unchallenged market positioning,” Yang wrote.

Wedbush analyst Ives said iPhone 15 demand in China was a highlight of Apple’s results.

“While overall, China revenues missed the Street in the September quarter, this was due to softer Mac/iPad sales, which marks the underlying growth the Street is truly focused on,” Ives said.

Apple’s numbers should cause analysts to “breathe a sea of relief,” he said.

“Underlying iPhone and Services growth looks relatively healthy in the holiday quarter and generally in line with whisper numbers,” he said, adding that iPhone China demand concerns were “a great fictional story by the bears.”

Heading Into the Holiday Season

Bernstein’s Sacconaghi said, Apple’s “guided below consensus revenues for the December quarter, (are) largely driven by a weak iPhone cycle. The December quarter typically sets the tone for the year.”

The analyst said he sees the stock’s quality as holding, but encourages investors to “‘be like Buffett’ and buy on dips.”

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri agreed with Sacconaghi that Apple is seeing higher margins, the China numbers were encouraging.

“iPhone was in line and more importantly, China was an area of strength, which should help allay recent slowdown concerns,” Pajjuri said.

Pajjuri rates APPL Outperform with a price target of US$200 to US$195.

Apple recently filled in its holiday lineup with the new iPhone 15 and Apple Watch Series 9 smartwatches, plus new MacBook Pro and iMac computers that run on the company’s new M3 family of chips, which are based on a smaller and more efficient 3-nanometer process.

Services: Next Big Growth Driver?

Writing for Investor’s Business Daily, Patrick Seitz also noted that the Services division may be

AAPL’s next big growth driver.

“On Oct. 25, Apple raised prices for multiple subscription services, including Apple TV+ and its Apple One bundles,” Seitz wrote.

Investor’s Business Daily gave AAPL a Composite Rating of 90 out of 99. The rating combines “five separate proprietary ratings of fundamental and technical performance,” with the best growth stocks having a rating of 90 or better. It also gave the stock a Relative Strength Rating, looking at how the stock performs against others in the last year, of 90 out of 99.

“Wall Street sees the iPhone maker returning to growth in the December quarter,” Seitz wrote.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Apple Inc. (AAPL:NASDAQ)

Institutional: 54%
Retail: 45%
Insiders & Management: 0%
54%
46%
*Share Structure as of 11/16/2023

 

The company’s next earnings report is due in late January and could be a catalyst for the stock, he said.

Ownership and Share Structure

About 54% of Apple is owned by institutions and about 0.06% by insiders, according to Yahoo! Finance. The rest, about 46%, is in retail.

Top shareholders include The Vanguard Group Inc. with 8.32% or 1.32 billion shares, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. with 5.89% or 916 million shares, BlackRock Institutional Trust Co. with 4.32% or 672 million shares, State Street Global Advisors (US) with 3.66% or 569 million shares, and Geode Capital Management LLC with 1.9% or 296 million shares.

Top individual shareholders include Arthur D. Levinson with 0.03% or 4.59 million shares, CEO Cook with 0.02% or 3.28 million shares, Jeffrey E. Williams with 0% 560,000 shares, and former Vice President Al Gore with 0% or 470,000 shares.

Apple’s market cap is US$2.95 trillion, with 15.55 billion shares outstanding, 15.54 of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$198.23 and US$124.17.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Apple Inc.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
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Nvidia’s Q3 earnings: challenges ahead for chipmaker giant

By George Prior 

Nvidia’s third quarter earnings when they are revealed on Tuesday will be impressive and the guidance positive, but the company faces challenges ahead, yet almost every investor needs exposure to semiconductors.

This is the prediction from Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, ahead of the chip maker’s report this week.

All eyes are on the tech giant after a strong second quarter performance that saw revenues soar to $13.5bn.

The deVere CEO says: “Nvidia’s second-quarter, epic, shock-and-awe-esque earnings report still looms large in the minds of investors around the world.  Now all eyes are on the semiconductor titan’s revenues on Tuesday.

“While we expect the revenue growth to still be hugely impressive and the company’s stellar rise will undoubtedly continue, its trajectory also faces challenges ahead.”

He continues: “There is growing and intensifying competition in the semiconductor market and this will threaten Nvidia’s market share and, therefore, margins over the longer term.

“In addition, the 170% surge in the second quarter mainly came from data centre revenues and Nvidia is very exposed to China.

“With China tightening regulations and cracking down on various industries, including technology, the company may face headwinds in this critical market. Regulatory uncertainties and geopolitical tensions could impact Nvidia’s ability to sustain its mighty results, especially if there are disruptions to its business operations in China.”

Despite the potential challenges on the horizon, the overarching theme remains—semiconductors are a cornerstone of the contemporary tech-driven world.

“Almost every investor should recognise the strategic importance of semiconductor stocks in their portfolios,” notes Nigel Green.

“As the backbone of the digital era, semiconductors power a vast array of technologies, from consumer electronics to advanced computing systems.”

The semiconductor industry’s continued growth is propelled by the increasing demand for smart devices, the expansion of 5G networks, and the rapid development of artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Including semiconductor stocks in a diversified portfolio offers investors exposure to a sector with long-term growth potential. The sector’s resilience, adaptability, and its role in driving technological innovation make it an attractive choice for those seeking stability amid market uncertainties.

“Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is a pivotal moment for investors to assess the company’s standing in the dynamic semiconductor landscape.

“Investors, recognizing the critical role of semiconductors now and in the future, are likely to find value.

“Your future self will thank you for maintaining or establishing positions in this key sector,” concludes the deVere CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

 

Trade Of The Week: UK100_m knocks on major resistance

By ForexTime 

  • UK100_m trapped in wide range
  • Index could be rocked by political and economic forces
  • Keep eye on UK Autumn Statement
  • Key levels of interest at 7605, 7500 and 7370
  • Possible breakout on the horizon?

Over the past few months, it has felt like the same old story for the UK100_m as it’s traded within a wide range. Significant support can be found at 7240 and resistance at 7730.

Note: The UK100_m tracks the underlying FTSE100 

The index has been influenced by various forces ranging from the pound’s performance to Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations and quarterly earnings from UK companies.

Note: The FTSE100 has a strong international focus with 75% of revenues from FTSE100 companies coming from outside the UK.

With prices flirting around the 50 and 100-day SMA ahead of a big week for the UK economy, a potential breakout may be on the horizon.

Here are 3 things to keep an eye on:

  1. UK Autumn Statement 

On Wednesday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will present the Autumn Statement to Parliament.

Although this event swings more towards politics, investors will be paying close attention to key updates on the country’s finances and the government’s plan for tax and public spending. Confidence towards the UK economy has improved over the past two weeks as the country not only avoided a contraction in Q3 but inflation fell to its lowest rate since October 2021 at 4.6%. It will be interesting to see how this development impacts the Autumn Statement and whether bold steps are taken to boost the UK economy. This political event could impact sentiment towards the UK economy and the British pound, influencing the UK100_m as a result.

Note: The UK100_m has an inverse relationship with the British pound. When the pound appreciates, it translates to lower revenues for FTSE100 companies that acquire revenues from overseas, pulling the index lower as a result. The same is true vice versa. 

  • The UK100_m may trade lower if the Autumn budget boosts optimism over the UK economy and strengthens the pound as a result.
  • Should the Autumn budget disappoint and weaken sterling, this could push the UK100_m higher.
  1. Key UK economic data 

A day after the Autumn Statement, the focus shifts back to economic data with the Gfk consumer confidence and PMIs in focus. Sentiment remains shaky despite the good news from the UK over the past two weeks. Should the Gfk consumer sentiment confidence and manufacturing along with other PMIs paint a gloomy picture, this could hit confidence and fortify expectations around the BoE being done with rate hikes with the next move a cut.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 55% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by May 2024.

  • The UK100_m could receive a boost if disappointing UK data weakens the pound and boosts bets around a BoE rate cut.
  • If UK data beats forecasts and the pound strengthens as a result, the UK100_m may trade lower.
  1. Technical forces 

The UK100_m remains in a wide range on the daily charts with prices flirting around the key 7500 level as of writing. 

  • Another daily close beyond the 7500 point could open a path toward the 200-day SMA at 7605 and major resistance at 7730.
  • Should prices remain capped below 7500, this could trigger a decline towards the 7370 and major support at 7240.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,001 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (588 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (563 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-15,980 contracts), the VIX (-9,879 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,972 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-29 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-14-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,192,89920-52,8335711,0574141,77654
VIX415,12480-42,9288146,62718-3,69978
Nasdaq-Mini273,7875831539-2,032421,71777
DowJones-Mini101,03065-36,513141,79699-5,28318
Nikkei 225 Yen66,7366715,047816,44529-21,49238
Nikkei 22516,21037-2,587481,8904769737

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (81 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (39.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (48.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.5 percent)

 

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-33.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (23.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-41.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-30.0 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.750.15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.138.86.4
– Net Position:-42,92846,627-3,699
– Gross Longs:94,375207,84722,934
– Gross Shorts:137,303161,22026,633
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.618.277.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.94.013.5

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.572.712.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.972.210.1
– Net Position:-52,83311,05741,776
– Gross Longs:274,3481,593,850262,981
– Gross Shorts:327,1811,582,793221,205
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.941.453.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0-4.85.8

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.766.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.825.315.9
– Net Position:-36,51341,796-5,283
– Gross Longs:20,91467,38110,795
– Gross Shorts:57,42725,58516,078
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.298.718.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.820.7-39.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.457.714.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.358.513.8
– Net Position:315-2,0321,717
– Gross Longs:69,502158,03939,612
– Gross Shorts:69,187160,07137,895
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.442.176.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-4.712.1

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.180.74.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.968.24.7
– Net Position:-65,56668,821-3,255
– Gross Longs:77,725445,80422,861
– Gross Shorts:143,291376,98326,116
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.669.116.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.43.6-12.8

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -29 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.968.922.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.957.218.6
– Net Position:-2,5871,890697
– Gross Longs:1,28711,1623,716
– Gross Shorts:3,8749,2723,019
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.247.437.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.017.9-5.1

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -64,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.991.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.176.31.8
– Net Position:-64,17461,4122,762
– Gross Longs:19,177362,5759,791
– Gross Shorts:83,351301,1637,029
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.2 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.030.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.341.8-3.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Massachusetts Biotech Advances Novel Cytokine Therapies

Source: Dr. Robert Driscoll  (11/15/23)

Wedbush sees over 300% upside for Werewolf stock based on early clinical success for its PREDATOR platform and pipeline, according to a WedBush research note.

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Werewolf Therapeutics Inc. (HOWL:NASDAQ) reported Q3 2023 results and progress for its pipeline of INDUKINE product candidates, noted Wedbush analyst Dr. Robert Driscoll in a November 15 research report.

The analysts have an Outperform rating and US$9 price target on Werewolf Therapeutics.

Early Efficacy Signals Seen for Lead Candidate

According to the analysts, Werewolf’s WTX-124 INDUKINE therapy has shown initial proof-of-concept with a differentiated safety profile compared to standard high-dose IL-2 and evidence of antitumor activity in early studies.

At the 12 mg dose, WTX-124 yielded a partial response in a melanoma patient and disease control in lung cancer patients. The company is now testing an 18 mg dose cohort.

The analysts believe this data validates Werewolf’s novel INDUKINE approach to conditionally activating cytokines within tumors while limiting systemic toxicity.

Advancing Broad Pipeline

Beyond WTX-124, Werewolf is evaluating the second INDUKINE candidate, WTX-330, in dose escalation and plans to share preclinical data on WTX-518 in 2024.

The company is also progressing IL-21 INDUKINE WTX-712 towards the clinic based on encouraging preclinical results.

Significant Upside from Current Levels

Wedbush maintains an Outperform rating on Werewolf Therapeutics and a US$9 price target, seeing over 300% upside for the shares.

The firm’s valuation is based on projected 2031 sales for WTX-124 applied to standard revenue multiples.

In summary, the analysts see Werewolf’s INDUKINE platform and early WTX-124 efficacy as validating the company’s novel approach to cytokine therapies in oncology. With multiple clinical catalysts upcoming, they view the risk/reward as favorable.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
  2. This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Wedbush, Werewolf Therapeutics, November 15, 2023

 

Analyst Certification We, Robert Driscoll, Ritika Das and Sam Ravina, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal opinions and that we have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with our specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

Company Specific Disclosures This information is subject to change at any time. 1. WS makes a market in the securities of Werewolf Therapeutics.

OTHER DISCLOSURES The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis: neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see pages 3–7 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. Retail Investors The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individual recommendation or personalized investment advice. The companies/investments mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review their own respective situation(s) before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice due to shifting market(s), economic or political conditions. Investment involves risks including the risk of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

SPX500_m bulls eye key resistance level

By ForexTime 

  • SPX500_m up 2% so far this week
  • Incoming US data and Fed speeches could trigger volatility
  • Prices firmly bullish on D1 timeframe but RSI overbought ​​​​​​​
  • Key resistance level found at 4525 ​​​​​​​
  • Possible breakout on horizon

The SPX500_m has gained 2% so far this week thanks to growing investor optimism around the era of Fed hikes coming to an end.

The cooler-than-expected US CPI data on Tuesday boosted bets over the Fed done with raising rates. Yesterday’s soft PPI and retail sales report reinforced these expectations with traders currently pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut by June 2024. 

We could see some more action on the SPX500_m today due to US economic data, speeches by Fed officials, and quarterly earnings from Walmart released before US markets open.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the SPX500_m could be in the process of another breakout or technical throwback. Prices have created a minor range on the H4 charts with the big resistance at 4525 and minor support at 4490.

Looking at the daily timeframe, bulls have been on a roll over the past few days with the SPX500_m rallying over 7% since the start of November. However, bulls are currently eyeing a significant resistance level at 4525.

Note: the last time prices secured a daily close above this point was at the start of August 2023.

There is a similar theme on the weekly charts with the powerful rebound at the start of November providing a foundation for bulls to test new highs. Beyond 4525, the next resistance can be found at 4600 – near the 2023 high.

Zooming out to the monthly, bulls seem to be regaining momentum with a solid monthly close back above 4600 opening the doors to the all-time high created at the start of 2022.

Placing our focus back on the daily timeframe, it’s all about the 4525 level.

Prices are trading well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA however the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that prices are overbought.

  • A strong daily close above 4525 could trigger a move towards 4600.

  • Should prices remain trapped below 4525, prices may decline back towards 4470 and 4410 – where the 100-day SMA resides.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Mournful Bears

Source: Michael Ballanger  (11/13/23)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market. 

As we head into the home stretch for calendar year 2023, it is no secret that the vast majority of stocks have been in a downtrend since January 2022. While the S&P 500 is calculated using an inordinate weighting in seven mega-cap stocks, the Unweighted S&P 500 (shown below) has been thrashing about for the better part of two years, leaving the majority of traders and investors feeling like they have been left behind.

No New Highs

Because stocks have not seen a new high in 22 months, an entire generation is in a complete quandary these days, completely unfamiliar with how to navigate a market that no longer has the support of the Federal Reserve. No more quantitative easing, no more zero interest rate policy, and no more Plunge Protection Team, all serving to deliver up juicy stock market profits resulting in handsome performance bonuses with amazing regularity every single year since March 2009. Not even a global pandemic and economic shutdown could derail the bull or the expansion, thanks to copious helicopter cash drops and banking system life jackets.

Despite a shockingly obvious attempt in 2023 by the Wall Street spin doctors to create a new “flaveur de jour” called “Artificial Intelligence,” the new narrative designed to lure the masses back into the excitement of stock market participation was successful in creating a brand new breed of worthless companies all claiming to be leaders in the field of “AI,” but it all ended in July and after a painful September and terrorist-ravaged October, these poor stock trading children are once again plunged back into the reality of what we old folks had to deal with before Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke bailed out a gaggle of criminally-responsible banks and taught new “kiddie fleet” how to “live long and plunder” without having to read a balance sheet or income statement.

I have been astounded all through September and October how legion after legion of Millennials and Genexers that came into the world of stocks and bonds after the 2008 GFC have gone from the “Buy the Effing Dip” mentality to “Sell the Effing Rip” mentality while fully convinced that the “new normal” of a hostile Fed was going to bring on the Crash of ’23.

The S&P 500 is now a full 312 points off those October lows, and this new generation of doom-and-gloom bears is still working off the “hard landing” platform that calls for new lows that will take out the October 2022 nadir and suck the life out of the “everything bubble” once and for all.

Now, we are nine days into November, and they are exhibiting behavior that is completely typical of the early stages of a new bull market. They are mere shadows of the brash, confident, take-on-the-world “super-traders” that took GME from $0.70 to $120 in 2021. They are beaten, battered, self-professed victims of an unfair world where their “divine right” of stock market riches was ripped away from them by the evil Boomers that rule the world.

Unfortunately, they are also displaying behaviors quite normal after extended periods of stagnant or declining prices; they are infected with a recency bias that has imprisoned them in a blind fog of delusion. Whereas the phrase “The Fed has our backs” emboldened a cherubic group of fuzzy-face day-traders after 2009, the phrase “higher for longer” denotes the level of pain these kids are being forced to endure in the new normal of laisser-faire investing.

The S&P 500 is now a full 312 points off those October lows, and this new generation of doom-and-gloom bears is still working off the “hard landing” platform that calls for new lows that will take out the October 2022 nadir and suck the life out of the “everything bubble” once and for all.

Finally, if I am forced to watch one more Instagram video of a 20-something girl in designer clothes and a Coach bag daubing her eyes and sniffling into the camera because after paying her bills every month, “I have nothing left for a life — no clubs, no holidays in Cancun, no health club — NOTHING!”, I am going to fire my old ten-pound eight-ball pencil sharpener through the monitor. Every generation since Omar the Club Wielder picked up chicks by thumping them over the head has had to make sacrifices at one time or another. Get used to it.

Stocks

With the exception of a minor Powell-inflicted setback on Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY:NYSE) went out at $440.19, which is the highest since the October 17 close at $438.14 and is now threatening to test the September high at $449.49.

With the relative strength index (“RSI”) at 62.15, there is still more room, especially if it clears the downtrend line drawn off the July-September tops.

I am long in two equal tranches of calls, with the SPY Dec $ 445 costing $7.75 (bought pre-Israel-Hamas) and the Dec $425 calls costing $6.89 (bought end-of-month). They closed out the week at $5.41 and $20.15, respectively, and thus have turned a public flogging with cat-o-nine-tails into a six-band parade in a mere nine days.

As I have been chirping about since September, when the sky was falling all around us, the probability of a face-ripping year-end rally was high, and despite the events in the Middle East, performance-chasing portfolio managers had to buy stocks. And buying them, they are certainly doing with the panic phase not yet even begun. Add to that the massive short position in the long end of the bond market (specifically the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT:US)), and you have a wonderful concoction of short-squeeze ingredients all simmering beautifully on the stock market stove.

While there are still possible speed bumps in the road ahead, I think those visions of bonus-driven sugar plums dancing in the heads of thousands of underweight and underperforming portfolio managers will drive stocks higher right up until the bonus cheques hit their bank accounts in early January. Then watch how fast the bullish narrative switches back to “hard landing” economics and “lag effect” lacerations halting the rally.

Gold and Silver

If I had to make a bet, the year 2023 is going to be considered the year that even the staunchest of bulls throw in the towel and pronounce gold to be “a barbarous relic.”

I can see from my Twitter feed that the youngsters are all feeling physically invaded by the abysmal performance of silver, which is certainly the most heavily promoted of all the metals. I would argue that copper has been just as dismal as silver, but just not on as many radar screens. You will never find the 500 tweets a day calling for a crash in the U.S. dollar that will take copper “to da moon” (followed by ten exclamation marks) like there was last August when the BRICS conference was being trotted out as the “seminal event” that would eliminate the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status and take gold and silver to atmospheric levels.

I am on the record as having dumped my SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD:NYSE) trading positions above $184 as spot gold cranked out to $2,019 into the geopolitical maelstrom of early October, but all that represented was a trading decision and in no way altered my expectations for new highs, albeit the actions of the bullion banks late last month completely neutralized my call for “new all-time highs by New Year’s Day.”

They provided over 70,000 contracts representing over 7 million ounces of phony, notional gold, and under the weight of such oppressive supply, those “gold to da moon!” buyers were once again pistol-whipped into submission with the GLD:NYSE going out under $180 and spot gold below $1,940.

What people should recognize is that gold (and to a lesser degree silver) are considered “Enemies of the State,” and despite the U.S. being the (alleged) holder of 8,133 metric tonnes of the yellow metal, their two primary foes — Russia and China — are stockpiling it in record quantities and are soon quite likely to surpass the U.S. as the holders of the largest cache of real money on the planet. That allows for two speculative possibilities: the first is that the U.S. has already sold all of its gold and is actually short 286 million ounces and needs to keep a lid on prices until they figure out how to extricate itself from yet “another fine mess.”

The level on the GLD:NYSE (now $179.51) at which to start warming up the “BUY” button is where the 50-dma, the 100-dma, and the 200-dma are starting to converge, which is between $178.38 and $179.68.

The second speculative possibility is that the rocket scientists at the Pentagon and at Langley have decided to hit Russia and China where it hurts the most —  in their pocketbooks.

The easiest way to do that is to use the Crimex (futures exchange known as “the paper markets”) to massage the U.S. dollar-denominated gold price downward, which in turn should theoretically move the Russian ruble and Chinese yuan higher, thus making trade with those two dastardly enemies more expensive for everyone around the world settling major transaction in dollars. Such manipulation would discourage depositors from emptying bank accounts in favor of gold and silver held outside of the banking system, and as we all know, monetary and fiscal policy has only one intention — to protect and promote the banks.

This could be nothing more than rank speculation and tinfoil hat conspiracy theorizing, but it is the reason that the scar tissue on my back arms and face has forced me to trade gold and silver rather than marry them. It just seems to make sense to me that if an entity that NEVER gets a margin call is shorting the $%$% out of gold, I had better stand aside. That is what the COT was telling us back in late October, and those who listened and are now hiding in the weeds, as am I, have cash in hand awaiting a chance to pounce at the point where the bullion bank behemoths have fallen back to sleep after gorging on a $560 million meal.

The level on the GLD:NYSE (now $179.51) at which to start warming up the “BUY” button is where the 50-dma, the 100-dma, and the 200-dma are starting to converge, which is between $178.38 and $179.68. Mind you, when I went long the GLD:NYSE back on October 4 with a price under $170.00, RSI had plunged to a massively oversold low of 20.16.

It went out at 45.43 on the week, which is not nearly as compelling as it was in early October. I might have to wait to see that big gap at $174-176 created by the events in the Middle East filled in before I take a stab, and the way to do that is to wait for a two-day-close above the $178.35-$179.68 convergence zone. If it fails, then I know the gap is in the crosshairs.

In spot gold terms, the gap is in the $1,890-1,910 zone, and if that also fails, the early October lows are to be expected, and that would not be good.

Juniors

The junior miners are going to have a particularly challenging tax-loss season as investors harvest capital losses and apply them against past gains or bank them in anticipation of future gains, but what it spells is selling pressure. There are those who think that the poor performance of the TSX Venture Exchange will result in fewer gains against which to apply losses, but within the TSXV, there are pockets of strength (like lithium earlier in the year) where enormous gains were realized. If I am holding shares in a junior silver deal, I am likely to book a loss and switch it to a junior gold and around the same price so that I have a protected window of tax-free capital gains going into 2024.

The exploration stocks have always thrived or struggled “on the margin” of either bullish or bearish sentiment for the metals. When the senior and intermediate gold and silver miners and developers catch a cold, the explorers catch pneumonia. The developers, however, are where one finds the greatest bargains because as they get kneecapped along with other junior resource stocks, their value per ounce or value per pound of whatever proven resource they hold gets taken down despite the outlook for that resource.

Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE; GGLDF:OTCQB) is just such a developer whose 2,059,900 ounces of proven-and-probable gold ounces are being assigned a value per ounce of under $5.00. Admittedly, all junior gold developers are being assigned value per ounce numbers considered either impossible or highly unlikely prior to this recent downdraft, but I recall 500,000-ounce deposits being acquired for over $200 per ounce in Nevada back in the 2002-2011 boom.

I am sure that the junior gold developer space is littered with stories like Getchell which is typical of resource sector bear markets where “Undervalued gold deals” are like noses; everybody has one. (That phrase became popular in the smoky boardrooms of investment banking houses back in the 1980s and I must confess that in the interest of decency, I used the word “noses” in place of another anatomical appendage common to all humanity.)

There was a time when I was a younger, angry man that I refused to buy stocks unless they were in the resource category. They had to have a product that the world needed, and while they were volatile, it was infinitely more honorable to own a hard asset than some “story stock” where the CEO is a paid actor and reads off a script sheet every time a question is asked while signing stock buyback orders designed by activist fund managers just as a boatload of options vest.

Everyone over the age of 50 remembers the darling of the dotcom era, former GE Chairman and CEO Jack Welch, who ran the NYSE darling from 1981 to 2001, exiting with a record $487 million severance package. Back in the heyday of the technology boom pre-2001, Welch was a regular on CNBC, where hosts doted and fawned over him like a 60’s rock star.

You see, in the world of trading and investing and in the philosophy of free market capitalism, the only judge, jury, and executioner is one’s Statement of Profit and Loss, and if it says “profit,” you are headed to the clouds with a harp and white toga and if it says “loss,” you get out the asbestos footwear really quick.

He would lecture people on integrity and leadership, and American values and became the poster child for American exceptionalism. Then, when the dotcom bubble popped, and the rose-colored glasses were ground into tiny grains of sand, the world eventually discovered that, as Warren Buffett famously said about bear markets: “who was without swimming trunks when the tide went out.”

GE crashed and burned in the 2000s, and since the peak in 2001 at $198/share, GE has not exceeded the Welch-era highs in twenty years. Most importantly, the Welch legacy of exaltation has since been replaced with a reputation for underhanded financial reporting, risky deals, improper treatment of staff, and general corporate malfeasance of the highest order. Like Sam Bankman-Fried, the CNBC crowd reveres and worships these Oscar-winning corporate impersonators until they blow up, after which the spin involves simply never mentioning them again except in a cold, calculating, impersonal manner.

There are hundreds of Welches and SBF’s out there, all well-rehearsed in the art of subterfuge and shell-gaming. Like the magician that wants you to focus on the waving pink handkerchief, the MSM wants us all to focus on the narrative rather than the reality, which is precisely why I have learned that whether you own stocks or bonds or gold, there is no morality or immorality inherent in such ownership. This entire liberal-left notion of “ESG” being a prerequisite for responsible corporate behavior is a load of horsefeathers.

As I move into the twilight of senior citizenship, I have found immense joy in seeing through the thin veils of a bullish narrative or the odious linen of a bearish narrative, choosing instead to “rent” a position in either the SPY’s or the GLD’s or the QQQ’s without the tepid assumption of either guilt or innocence. You see, in the world of trading and investing and in the philosophy of free market capitalism, the only judge, jury, and executioner is one’s Statement of Profit and Loss, and if it says “profit,” you are headed to the clouds with a harp and white toga and if it says “loss,” you get out the asbestos footwear really quick.

Such are the rules of the back alley trader and pool-room preacher.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Getchell Gold Corp.
  2. Michael Ballanger I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Getchell Gold Corp. My company has a financial relationship with: Getchell Gold Corp. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
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Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.