Stock Market News

Archive for Stock Market News – Page 17

Can SPX500_m bears keep up their momentum?

SPX500_m flirts above weekly resistance ahead of US CPI
Bears in control on weekly timeframe
Three potential targets identified.
Bearish scenario invalidated If 4401.1 price level is broken
Will key US inflation report support SPX500_m bulls or bears?

The SPX500_m seems to be in the process of a technical bounce on the daily charts with prices flirting above key weekly resistance ahead of the US CPI report later today. Nevertheless, bears remain in firm control on the weekly charts. Even though the current correction wave is strong – it is approaching a point of possible resistance at the trend line.

On the daily timeframe, prices are at a weekly resistance turned support level and the bullish strength is undeniable with an extended correction wave in the current down trend clearly visible. This leaves the field open for either bullish continuation or a bearish intervention and the possible start of a new impulse wave in the down trend. Since both the weekly and the daily trend is downwards, a more detailed bearish opportunity is discussed on the H4 chart.

The H4 chart reveals more details with a strong bullish trend in progress. As mentioned above the higher time frames as well as the effect on traders based on the CPI news event might cause the bears to take over again.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level near a last bottom at 4343.3 and dragging it to a stop loss just above a last proper swing at 4401.1, three possible targets can be established:

The first possible target at 4314.3 (Target 1) with risk management in sight.
The second potential price target at 4273.9 (Target 2) – located just before weekly support level.
The third and last price target is feasible at 4236.3 (Target 3) if bears can break through the weekly support level.

If the price at 4401.1 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

08 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & S&P500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (18,642 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (16,046 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,365 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (589 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (567 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The leading market with the declines in speculator bets this week was the DowJones-Mini (-10,829 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-1,706 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,138,034	15	-73,235	54	46,115	46	27,120	48
Nikkei 225	16,376	17	-43	66	-1,058	29	1,101	42
Nasdaq-Mini	254,924	41	1,435	41	1,646	47	-3,081	59
DowJones-Mini	100,823	65	-32,447	0	29,549	94	2,898	58
VIX	381,162	63	-34,193	94	40,533	6	-6,340	64
Nikkei 225 Yen	52,277	40	3,042	43	8,418	34	-11,460	70

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (94 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (54 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (43 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (80.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (51.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (34.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (3 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-19.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (9.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-42.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-44.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-6.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	46.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	36.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-34,193	40,533	-6,340
– Gross Longs:	94,830	178,112	24,423
– Gross Shorts:	129,023	137,579	30,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	6.5	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.5	-13.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	74.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.8	10.5
– Net Position:	-73,235	46,115	27,120
– Gross Longs:	239,442	1,582,012	252,547
– Gross Shorts:	312,677	1,535,897	225,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	46.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-7.7	-1.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	64.7	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	35.4	12.0
– Net Position:	-32,447	29,549	2,898
– Gross Longs:	19,480	65,200	15,041
– Gross Shorts:	51,927	35,651	12,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.6	35.7	0.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	57.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	57.2	16.3
– Net Position:	1,435	1,646	-3,081
– Gross Longs:	66,087	147,544	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	64,652	145,898	41,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.1	46.8	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	20.5	-8.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	83.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	70.8	5.1
– Net Position:	-63,308	62,415	893
– Gross Longs:	46,209	406,775	25,724
– Gross Shorts:	109,517	344,360	24,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	65.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.8	-10.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	62.2	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-43	-1,058	1,101
– Gross Longs:	2,373	10,185	3,818
– Gross Shorts:	2,416	11,243	2,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	29.4	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.7	0.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	87.9	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	83.9	2.0
– Net Position:	-18,963	15,418	3,545
– Gross Longs:	34,410	345,966	11,231
– Gross Shorts:	53,373	330,548	7,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	62.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	0.9	-7.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

06 Oct

Week Ahead: SPX500_m primed for heavy event week

By ForexTime

Big week for SPX500_m thanks to host of key risk events
Watch out for US CPI, Fed speeches & big bank earnings
SPX500_m bearish but RSI flirting around oversold territory
Fresh fundamental spark could trigger big move
Keep eye on strong support above 200-day SMA

Even as the countdown looms to the highly anticipated US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 6th October), investors are bracing for even more market volatility in the week ahead!

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from various Fed officials, FOMC minutes as well as earnings announcements by US banks could rock the S&P 500 next week.

Monday, October 9

CNH: China aggregate financing, money supply, new yuan loans
EUR: Germany industrial production
USD: Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson speech
World Bank-IMF annual meetings open in Marrakech

Tuesday, October 10

AUD: Australia Westpac consumer confidence
JPY: Japan balance of payments
NZD: New Zealand home sales
USD: Atlantic Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech
IMF issues its latest world economic outlook

Wednesday, October 11

EUR: Germany CPI
USD: FOMC minutes, PPI, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, October 12

JPY: Japan machinery orders, PPI
EUR: ECB September meeting minutes
NZD: New Zealand food prices
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: US September CPI report, initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Friday, October 13

CAD: Canada existing home sales
CNH: China CPI, PPI, trade
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
USD: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment
SPX500_m: Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock results

The September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Thursday, October 12 will most likely influence expectations around whether the Fed hikes rates one more time in 2023.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (September 2023 vs. September 2022) to cool 3.6% from 3.7% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to cool 4.1% from 4.3% seen in August.
CPI month-on-month (September 2023 vs August 2023) to cool 0.3% from 0.6% in the prior month.
Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.3% from 0.3% seen in August.

Back in August, US headline inflation accelerated thanks to higher oil prices, but core inflation fell to the lowest level since September 2021. Should September’s CPI report show evidence of cooling prices, this is likely to boost bets around the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023.

US CPI report may rock the SPX500_m…

The S&P 500 has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to Fed hike expectations.

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 28% of the index’s value, the incoming CPI report could trigger volatility.

In a nutshell, tech stocks are pressured by higher interest rates because their value is based on earnings forecasted in the future.

The SPX500_m is likely to trade lower if the inflation numbers are hot and sticky.
Should the CPI report print below market forecasts, the SPX500_m may receive a boost higher.

US earnings season kicks off…

Third quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday 13th October, led by US banking giants JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Investors will comb through the earnings for fresh insight into the health of US banks which can be used to gauge the health of the US economy.

When considering how financial stocks account for around 12.7% of the S&P 500, the market reaction to these big bank earnings on Friday is likely to impact the index.

The SPX500_m could push higher if the bank earnings exceed forecasts.
If the earnings disappoint, this could drag the SPX500_m lower

Conflicting technical signals

The SPX500_m remains in a bearish trend on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. However, strong support can be found just above the 200-day SMA with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting around oversold territory – suggesting a potential pullback down the road. These conflicting signals may keep the SPX500_m trapped within a range until a fresh fundamental catalyst triggers a breakout. In the meantime, support can be found at 4210 and resistance at 4332.

A solid breakout above 4332 could open a path towards 4410 where the 100-day SMA resides.
Should prices break below 4210, this could encourage a decline towards levels not seen since May at 4130.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

05 Oct

Big 3 Automaker Stellantis Invests $90M in Lithium Triangle Explorer

Source: Streetwise Reports (10/4/23)

Shares of this lithium explorer jumped after an announcement that big-three automaker Stellantis is investing US$90 million in the company. One analyst said other major companies are watching.

Shares of lithium explorer Argentina Lithium & Energy Corp. (LIT:TSX.V; PNXLF:OTC; OAY3:FSE) jumped 111% after it announced that big-three automaker Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) had invested US$90 million to acquire shares in the company.

The Stellantis umbrella includes iconic brands like Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, Citroen, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep, Maserati, and Peugeot. Under the agreement, Peugeot Citroen Argentina SA, a Stellantis subsidiary, will own 19.9% of the company’s issued and outstanding shares, and Argentina Lithium will own 80.1%.

Argentina Lithium President and Chief Executive Officer Nikolaos Cacos said it highlights the shortage approaching for the metal needed for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

Stellantis is reaching down to exploration companies like Argentina Lithium to make sure they have the lithium needed “for the electric vehicle transition, which is coming fast and furious,” Cacos said in an interview with Proactive Investors.

Research Corp. analyst Sid Rajeev rated the stock a Buy with a fair value target price of CA$0.52.

The lithium market is expected to grow globally from US$37.8 billion in 2022 to US$89.9 billion in 2030, according to a report by Fortune Business Insights.

“The growing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs), high-drain portable electronics, and energy storage systems has had a huge impact on the growth of the overall market,” the report said.

LIT’s share price went from CA$0.23 to CA$0.485 on the day of the announcement.

The news is also bound to attract the attention of other major companies.

“As LIT’s projects are close to well-known projects held by majors, the company can be subject to M&A events if it is able to delineate a resource in one or more of its assets,” noted Fundamental Research Corp. analyst Sid Rajeev while initiating coverage on the company in July.

Rajeev rated the stock a Buy with a fair value target price of CA$0.52.

After an advance late in September 2022, Technical Analyst Clive Maund noted that “something is going on” with the stock and that it should see a larger move.

The Catalyst: Fueling the New Green Economy

Cacos said having a partner like Stellantis validates the projects and the exploration work that Argentina Lithium has done so far in the Lithium Triangle to find the battery metal that could fuel the new green economy.

The company has acquired resource properties across the Americas, with a considerable focus on Argentina and the Lithium Triangle. Its current projects include Rincon West, Antofalla North, Pocitos, and Incahuasi.

After an advance late in September 2022, Technical Analyst Clive Maund noted that “something is going on” with the stock and that it should see a larger move.

The Rincon West Project includes three mining concessions covering 3,742 hectares at the Rincon Salar, west and north of Rio Tinto Plc’s (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK) adjacent Rincon Project.

At its Antofalla North site, the firm controls 10,050 hectares 25 kilometers west of Salar de Hombre Muerto, the “Salt Pan of the Dead Man.”

The Pocitos property includes 26,000 hectares, the company said, and the company’s Incahuasi Project involves a 100% interest in 25,000 hectares of granted mineral rights properties in the Incahuasi Salar basin in Catamarca Province, Argentina.

Funding to Advance All Projects

Stellantis’ investment “allows us to not think about funding anymore as an exploration company,” Cacos said. “I think we can advance all our projects over the next three years, right up to the announcement, define resources and pre-feasibility studies just before, … (and) announcing making a decision or going forward and commercial production.”

After the issuance of exchange shares and at the close of the transaction, on or about October 4, Stellantis will own at most 19.9% of the common shares (on an undiluted basis) of Argentina Lithium, the company said.

The exchange agreement also provides Stellantis with observer rights to attend Argentina Lithium’s board meetings for as long as Stellantis owns at least 10% of the company and allows it to nominate one director to the Board of Directors.

The companies will enter into a lithium offtake agreement in which Stellantis will buy up to 15,000 tonnes per year of lithium produced by LIT over a seven-year period. The agreement may be extended by the companies.

The supply obligation of the agreement is conditional on the start of commercial lithium production at one or more of Argentina Lithium’s projects, as well as other terms, including Stellantis having a first right of first refusal on the sale of lithium products to third parties after production starts.

North American Demand to Drive Lithium Shortfalls

Lithium is a major component of EV batteries, where it is used as a cathode and electrolyte. The soft, silvery metal with highly reactive and flammable properties is also used to strengthen alloys, as a high-temperature lubricant, and as a drug to treat bipolar disorder.

Analysts from Eight Capital predicted that lithium market deficits will widen this decade, and the shortfalls will be driven by demand in North America.

The United States’ EV penetration of 6% lags China’s 26% and Europe’s 20%, analysts Anoop Prihar and Alex Riazanov of Eight Capital wrote in a recent research note. But President Joe Biden’s administration has committed to a target of 50% of new vehicle sales being EVs by 2030

“We estimate North American lithium nameplate production capacity will be 262,900 LCE (million tonnes lithium carbonate) in 2026 based on projects that currently have completed a Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS),” Prihar and Riazanov wrote.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Argentina Lithium & Energy Corp. (LIT:TSX.V; PNXLF:OTC; OAY3:FSE)

	Retail: 63%
	Strategic Investors: 37%

63%

37%

^*Share Structure as of 9/29/2023

“Although this is a significant increase from the current North American production capacity of 6,000 tonnes LCE, it’s still more than 128,000 tonnes short of what we anticipate will be required by the battery plants. As such, we anticipate the fundamentals underlying lithium demand to remain robust.”

Ownership and Share Structure

The company doesn’t officially share any information regarding management or institutional ownership, but Reuters reported that about 37% was owned by strategic institutions in the most recent reporting.

Its largest shareholders are Lithium Investment Partners LP with 17.68%, Jack Yetiv with 15.24%, Joseph J. Grosso with 3.05%, and the CEO Cacos with 1.04%, according to Reuters.

Its market cap is CA$59.83 million, with 130 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.60 and CA$0.19.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Argentina Lithium & Energy Corp.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Stock Market News

05 Oct

Global bond rout: complacency could hit your wealth

By George Prior

Investors need to pay attention to the dramatic global bond market rout to safeguard their wealth despite the sell-off stablising, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as the US, European, and Japanese bond rout deepens.

US bonds maturing in 10 years or more have fallen 46% since peaking in March 2020, according to Bloomberg.

European bonds are following in the footsteps of the US rout, with yields on Germany’s 10-year debt rising above 3% for the first time since 2011, earlier this week. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year yield, rose to a decade high, despite the Bank of Japan being prepared to buy $4.5 billion worth of bonds.

Also surging this week have been Australian, Canadian and British government bond yields.

Nigel Green says: “The sell-off began after the US Federal Reserve insisted that interest rates would be kept higher for longer.

“Investors need to be ‘on it’ when it comes to the global bond market rout as it could have far-reaching consequences, impacting various asset classes and investment portfolios, despite the situation having stabilised somewhat for the time being.”

He continues: “Diversification is a cornerstone of a sound investment strategy. However, bond market turbulence can challenge this diversification by affecting both the bond and equity parts of a portfolio.

“When bond prices fall and yields rise, investors can experience losses in their fixed-income holdings.

“At the same time, the shift in investor preferences towards higher-yielding bonds can influence stock markets, potentially leading to equity market declines.

“As such, the bond market’s trajectory may require investors to adjust their asset allocation to mitigate potential losses.”

Many investors turn to bonds for stability and income generation. However, during a bond market rout, even traditionally safe investments, such as government and corporate bonds, can face significant price declines.

“Investors who rely on these bonds for capital preservation and regular income should closely monitor their bond holdings with their financial advisor and perhaps consider diversifying into other assets, such as dividend-paying stocks or alternative investments,” observes the deVere CEO.

Some alternative investments to consider could include precious metal; real assets, such as real estate and infrastructure investments; commodities like oil, natural gas, or agricultural products, and Structured products, such as structured notes which can be customised to offer capital protection or enhanced returns based on specific market conditions.

“To grow and protect their money, I would urge investors to avoid complacency over the global bond rout as we doubt this is the end to the turbulence,” concludes the deVere Group CEO.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Opinions Stock Market News

04 Oct

Investing: What You Can Learn from Mom and Pop

“The highest commitment to stocks since the record levels of early 2000”

By Elliott Wave International

We all love Mom and Pop and cherish the valuable lessons about life they’ve given us along the way.

Yet, when it comes to investing, Mom and Pop may need to learn some lessons of their own.

Keep in mind that the American Association of Individual Investors’ (AAII) weekly survey is said to be representative of “Mom and Pop” investors, well-known for being quite cautious.

The August 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, discussed their behavior as the stock market was staging a significant rally:

In July [2021], the five-month average AAII stock allocation increased to 70.6%, a high level for this normally skittish cohort of investors. … This is the highest commitment to stocks since the record levels of early 2000.

This sentiment indicator is not meant for precision market timing, and, indeed, it seemed like these normally cautious investors had made the right decision. The rally persisted for the remainder of 2021. But, by early January 2022, the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 hit their all-time highs and have traded lower since.

What does this have to do with today?

Here’s an interesting chart and commentary from the August 2023 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast:

This chart shows a jump in the AAII bullish percentage to 59.5% on July 21. … These mom-and-pop investors are traditionally cautious, so big moves and extreme readings generally reflect important capitulations.

Let me emphasize again that sentiment indicators are important yet you may not want to use them for market timing.

That said, when you combine time-tested sentiment indicators with Elliott wave analysis, you get a much clearer picture.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

Our friends at Elliott Wave International are sharing with you a special free report ($80 value).

Using 5 must-see charts, “Are Bulls Headed for a Rude Awakening? 5 Market Warning Signs — Revealed” focuses your readers’ attention on 5 key sentiment areas:

Foreign stock buyers’ behavior: a red flag
See what the crowd’s attitude towards tech stocks shows
Tech stocks vs broad equities: What’s the message here?
Corporate insiders — are they buying or selling?
Artificial intelligence: See what previous technology fevers signaled

Read “5 Market Warning Signs — Revealed” now, FREE ($80 value) >>

P.S. From the inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve to the second-largest U.S. bank failure in history (care of the March Silicon Valley bank collapse) — 2023 has been a year of eerie callbacks to the 2008 financial crisis. See what the rest of the year is likely to bring via our special report >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Investing: What You Can Learn from Mom and Pop. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

30 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (49,710 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,923 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,959 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-24,019 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-3,849 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,348 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-196 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-26-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,137,648	15	-89,281	51	65,622	49	23,659	47
Nikkei 225	15,483	15	-610	62	-1,200	29	1,810	51
Nasdaq-Mini	241,018	29	846	66	-992	36	146	66
DowJones-Mini	92,551	51	-21,618	13	19,472	73	2,146	54
VIX	384,930	64	-52,835	80	58,631	19	-5,796	66
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,690	42	10,779	67	7,032	30	-17,811	49

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (80 percent) currently leads the stock markets this week and is in Extreme-Bullish territory (above 80 percent). The Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and Nikkei 225 (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (80.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (97.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (51.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (44.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (35.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (62.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.0 percent)

Russell-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-20 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-19.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (11.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-52.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-61.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (1.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	47.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	32.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-52,835	58,631	-5,796
– Gross Longs:	86,408	181,651	24,727
– Gross Shorts:	139,243	123,020	30,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	19.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	19.2	-0.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -89,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 49,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	69.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-89,281	65,622	23,659
– Gross Longs:	266,095	1,560,014	251,580
– Gross Shorts:	355,376	1,494,392	227,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	49.0	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-4.2	0.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	62.3	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	41.3	13.4
– Net Position:	-21,618	19,472	2,146
– Gross Longs:	18,237	57,681	14,570
– Gross Shorts:	39,855	38,209	12,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	73.3	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.1	33.7	8.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	58.2	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	58.6	16.5
– Net Position:	846	-992	146
– Gross Longs:	58,307	140,156	39,946
– Gross Shorts:	57,461	141,148	39,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	35.8	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	1.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	85.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	72.4	4.9
– Net Position:	-61,602	59,276	2,326
– Gross Longs:	35,566	393,907	24,965
– Gross Shorts:	97,168	334,631	22,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.8	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.8	-3.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	67.1	24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	74.8	12.7
– Net Position:	-610	-1,200	1,810
– Gross Longs:	1,325	10,385	3,773
– Gross Shorts:	1,935	11,585	1,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	28.6	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	-3.7	6.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	89.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	83.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-25,328	22,834	2,494
– Gross Longs:	29,019	344,909	8,675
– Gross Shorts:	54,347	322,075	6,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	69.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	5.8	-20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

27 Sep

Union and execs need to shift gears fast once UAW strike is over – transition to EV manufacturing requires their teamwork

By Peter Berg, Michigan State University

The United Auto Workers union is ramping up its strike against General Motors and Stellantis – the global company that makes Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge vehicles – and getting closer to a deal with Ford.

About 5,600 UAW members at 38 General Motors and Stellantis distribution centers for auto parts in 20 states walked off the job on Sept. 22, 2023, after an announcement by UAW President Shawn Fain.

Workers at the only Ford plant affected by the strike since it began on Sept. 15 will remain off the job. The total number of UAW members involved in the strike stands at about 18,300.

Under Fain’s leadership, the union is taking an adversarial approach: It’s railing against what it describes as the “poverty wages” UAW members earn while denouncing the automakers’ CEOs as “greedy” and vowing to “wreck their economy.”

As a scholar of employment relations, I think this strike is too narrowly focused on making up for the wages and benefits autoworkers have lost in recent years. But another big objective is ensuring that autoworkers will have good jobs once most U.S.-made vehicles are electric-powered.

This dispute alone will not resolve this larger objective. Rather, I believe management and labor will need to swiftly move on following the strike and work together constructively to meet that goal.

UAW’s demands

The union is demanding an end to the concessions it made to the three companies during the financial crisis that began in 2007. Its members employed by Ford, GM and Stellantis have experienced a 19% decline in their wages, after accounting for inflation, since 2008.

The union also wants the automakers – sometimes called the Detroit Three – to abolish the tiered wage system, which pays new employees far less than more experienced workers, even for the same work. The UAW initially said it was seeking a wage increase of 40% over four years and the restoration of a cost-of-living allowance that would link wages to inflation.

In addition to these demands, the UAW wants defined-benefit pensions for all workers restored, company-paid health benefits for retirees reestablished and the right to strike over plant closures guaranteed. Other demands include more paid time off and seeing all temporary workers made permanent. It has also called for a 32-hour work week without a pay cut.

Precedents for working together

Although the strike has emphasized the goal of boosting future autoworker pay and benefits, I believe that workers and management can look to the past for ideas that might help them move forward.

GM’s Saturn partnership offers one potential model.

The company’s approach to its Saturn brand of compact vehicles, launched in 1985, was unique in many respects. Its governance structure was characterized by shared decision-making at different levels throughout the plant. The local union was a full partner in virtually all business decisions.

GM invested billions of dollars in this venture, through which it tried to compete with Japanese imports and transplants that were quickly eroding GM’s market share. Saturns were designed differently than other U.S. vehicles, but what made those vehicles special was the extent to which labor shared the responsibility for running Saturn’s main factory.

The Saturn partnership was hard to maintain, especially following the departure of Roger B. Smith, the General Motors CEO who had pushed hard for it. The company stopped making Saturns in 2009, but the former subsidiary’s overall approach of involving workers in decisions about their jobs and the manufacturing process remains as critical today as it was in its heyday.

I would encourage the auto industry to again invoke the spirit of the Saturn venture, which emphasized the collaboration and partnership of labor and management in the production of high-quality, world-class vehicles. Only this time, the vehicles will be EVs.

GM offers another model for positive union-management relations.

About 20 years ago, its Lansing-Grand River assembly plant in Michigan began to engage in a similar example of what I call joint responsibility unionism. Management and the local UAW union established a contractual commitment to work together to continually improve production by systematically solving problems and increasing productivity.

Management and the local UAW union established a contractual commitment to work together to continually improve production by systematically solving problems and increasing productivity.

The local union and management hold each other accountable for keeping costs down and quality high. The plant, which assembles Cadillacs and Chevy Camaros, continues this approach successfully today.

Shift the focus to the future

The UAW is pointing to the billions of dollars in profits auto companies are currently getting when it demands a bigger piece of the pie. The companies counter that rapidly increasing EV production is costly.

GM, Ford and Stellantis already plan to invest more than US$100 billion in electric vehicle manufacturing. As production shifts away from vehicles with internal combustion engines that burn gasoline or diesel fuel, the number of autoworkers needed to build them will decline. EVs have fewer parts.

Ford and Volkswagen, for example, have estimated that they’ll eventually need 30% less labor due to the EV transition.

Undergoing this transformation with labor and management at loggerheads can’t possibly benefit the UAW or the auto companies.

Instead, they’ll need to focus on finding solutions together that increase productivity, build a skilled workforce and efficiently convert plants that make conventional vehicles today to EV factories tomorrow. In so doing, the UAW is more likely to meet its goal of seeing those EV factories employ its members.

About the Author:

Peter Berg, Professor of Employment Relations; Director of Human Resources and Labor Relations, Michigan State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Financial News Stock Market News

27 Sep

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Indices

By ForexTime

Some semblance of stability returned to global equity markets on Wednesday as rate hike fears cooled after a sharp selloff in the previous session.

European stocks edged higher in tight ranges while US futures are pointing to a mixed open amid the cautious market mood. In the currency arena, the dollar continues to dominate with the USD Index trading at levels not seen since November 2022. Looking at commodities, oil prices surged this morning while gold extended losses thanks to rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.

Our attention today falls on major indices which seem to be under the mercy of rate hike fears.

SPX500_m could test 200-day SMA

The bearish case for the SPX500_m was reinforced after prices secured a solid daily close below the 4332 levels.

There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades below zero. Bears are clearly in a position of power with a breakdown below 4270, opening a path towards the 200-day SMA at 4210. For bulls to jump back into the game, a move back 4332 needs to be achieved.

NQ100_m breaks key daily support

The recent breakdown below the 14670 support level may signal further downside for the NQ100_m with 14250 acting as a key level of interest.

Technical forces favour bears, as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while prices are trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA. Should prices push back above 14670, this could trigger a rebound towards the 100-day SMA before the downside resumes.

STOX50_m wobbles above 4100

It is safe to say that STOX50_m bears remain in some position of power below the 4200 resistance level.

Prices are approaching another support at 4100, a level not seen since March 2022. A solid breakdown below this level could trigger a selloff towards 4060. Should 4100 prove to be reliable support, prices may push back towards 4200.

UK100_m trapped in wide range

It remains a choppy affair for the UK100_m which is currently trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts.

Resistance can be found at 7710 and support at 7250. Despite the choppiness, prices could be gearing up to decline given the recent break below the 200-day SMA. A strong daily close under 7605 may spark a selloff towards 7530 – where the 50-day SMA resides. If bulls can fight back, a bounce towards 7710 could be on the cards.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

26 Sep

Cycle of rate hikes is over – are your investments aligned?

By George Prior

Investors need now to ensure their investment portfolios are ready for “a new era” as central banks become seemingly convinced that no further interest rate rises will be needed in this monetary cycle.

This assessment from Nigel Green of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, comes as policymakers in the US, UK, Japan and Switzerland all decided to keep rates steady last week.

He comments: “We’re in a transition period ahead of a new monetary era as most of the world’s most influential central banks are now anticipated to cut interest rates in the next quarter of 2024, rather than raise them.

“This is because we’re heading into a stage of lower growth and lower inflation.”

With central banks, it appears, having reached a consensus that no further interest rate hikes are likely to be needed, investors must recalibrate their strategies.

Diversification remains a foundational strategy in managing investment risk. Investors should consider allocating their assets across various classes, including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives.

Amid economic deceleration, it’s prudent to emphasize defensive stocks in your portfolio.

“These are companies that tend to exhibit resilience during downturns due to the essential nature of their products or services. Sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples often fall into this category. Companies in these sectors can continue to generate revenue even when consumer spending weakens,” says the deVere CEO.

“While economic growth may slow, technological advancements and innovation continue to shape the future. Investing in companies at the forefront of technology and innovation can be a smart move. This includes sectors like tech, biotech, and green energy, which may experience sustained growth as society seeks solutions to pressing global challenges.”

He goes on to add: “Also, consider investments with a fixed income component to match your risk tolerance and income needs.”

In addition, emerging markets, notes Nigel Green, can present attractive opportunities during periods of global economic slowdown. These markets often exhibit higher growth potential compared to mature economies. “However, they also come with higher volatility and risks, so thorough research and a long-term investment horizon are essential.”

Navigating the complexities of investing during economic slowdowns requires careful planning and expertise. Seeking advice from a financial advisor can provide you with a tailored investment strategy based on your unique financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

“The world is about to shift into a new era and your investments should be aligned accordingly if you’re serious about creating, growing and safeguarding your money,” says Nigel Green.

About:

Opinions Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Stock Market News – Page 17

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level near a last bottom at 4343.3 and dragging it to a stop loss just above a last proper swing at 4401.1, three possible targets can be established:

The first possible target at 4314.3 (Target 1) with risk management in sight.

The second potential price target at 4273.9 (Target 2) – located just before weekly support level.

The third and last price target is feasible at 4236.3 (Target 3) if bears can break through the weekly support level.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

S&P500-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from various Fed officials, FOMC minutes as well as earnings announcements by US banks could rock the S&P 500 next week.

The September US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Thursday, October 12 will most likely influence expectations around whether the Fed hikes rates one more time in 2023.

US CPI report may rock the SPX500_m…

Given how tech stocks account for roughly 28% of the index’s value, the incoming CPI report could trigger volatility.

US earnings season kicks off…

When considering how financial stocks account for around 12.7% of the S&P 500, the market reaction to these big bank earnings on Friday is likely to impact the index.

Conflicting technical signals

The Catalyst: Fueling the New Green Economy

Funding to Advance All Projects

North American Demand to Drive Lithium Shortfalls

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Ownership and Share Structure

“The highest commitment to stocks since the record levels of early 2000”

By Elliott Wave International

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

Russell-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

UAW’s demands

Precedents for working together

Shift the focus to the future

Our attention today falls on major indices which seem to be under the mercy of rate hike fears.

SPX500_m could test 200-day SMA

The bearish case for the SPX500_m was reinforced after prices secured a solid daily close below the 4332 levels.

NQ100_m breaks key daily support

The recent breakdown below the 14670 support level may signal further downside for the NQ100_m with 14250 acting as a key level of interest.

STOX50_m wobbles above 4100

It is safe to say that STOX50_m bears remain in some position of power below the 4200 resistance level.

UK100_m trapped in wide range

It remains a choppy affair for the UK100_m which is currently trapped within a very wide range on the daily charts.