Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 8

29 Apr

Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to highest since March 2020

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (10,356 contracts) with Cocoa (2,359 contracts) and Lean Hogs (135 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-80,988 contracts), Soybeans (-73,414 contracts), Wheat (-12,652 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,017 contracts), Cotton (-9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,806 contracts), Coffee (-409 contracts) and Live Cattle (-38 contracts).

Cocoa bullish bets hit highest since March 2020

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the multi-year high in bullish bets of the Cocoa speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks but the boost pushed the overall net position to its highest level since 2020. This week’s gain brought the Cocoa speculator net position to a total of +61,714 contracts which marks the most bullish level of the past 164 weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Cocoa trader sentiment and futures prices have been pushed higher recently due to increased demand and because of supply issues arising out of Africa. Nigeria’s exports as well as the Ivory Coast’s exports have been on the decline while dryer weather conditions have also hampered production on the continent. Meanwhile, the demand for Cocoa is being forecast to grow approximately 5 percent annually for the next decade.

The Cocoa futures price fell modestly this week but has been on a strong bullish trend since hitting a recent low in September. Last week, the futures price hit its highest level since 2016 right around the 2995 price before retreating this week to 2937.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,826,19538236,43820-271,1977934,75953
Gold473,20924185,26459-211,9284226,66447
Silver149,6923730,60362-41,5234410,92027
Copper202,42244-17,042138,304808,73874
Palladium12,27088-5,877116,30990-43216
Platinum72,1257929,61784-34,316234,69931
Natural Gas1,274,53663-136,15018105,7748230,37652
Brent140,3216-40,5642636,713733,85161
Heating Oil268,225237,59340-16,018818,42528
Soybeans630,93512104,09630-76,49170-27,60526
Corn1,242,943724,6483334,70077-59,34818
Coffee192,927736,59265-37,705381,11326
Sugar959,70861279,52890-335,640756,11276
Wheat366,39047-83,188075,3691007,819100

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (90 percent), Soybean Meal (66 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and the Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.5 percent)
Sugar (89.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.1 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.4 percent)
Soybeans (30.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (58.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (75.6 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.1 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (97.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (9.7 percent)

 

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (38 percent) and Coffee (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-24 percent), Lean Hogs (-19 percent) and Wheat (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.3 percent)
Sugar (17.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.1 percent)
Coffee (24.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.5 percent)
Soybeans (-25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-24.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.5 percent)
Cotton (-2.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.1 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.9 percent)
Wheat (-13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -80,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.951.88.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.949.013.5
– Net Position:24,64834,700-59,348
– Gross Longs:297,251644,207109,017
– Gross Shorts:272,603609,507168,365
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.276.817.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.42.13.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 279,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 269,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.939.510.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.874.54.8
– Net Position:279,528-335,64056,112
– Gross Longs:354,581379,027101,894
– Gross Shorts:75,053714,66745,782
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.87.375.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-17.110.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.242.33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.261.93.3
– Net Position:36,592-37,7051,113
– Gross Longs:58,26681,7047,412
– Gross Shorts:21,674119,4096,299
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.938.426.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.9-24.65.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 104,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -73,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.449.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.961.111.5
– Net Position:104,096-76,491-27,605
– Gross Longs:160,083309,25645,031
– Gross Shorts:55,987385,74772,636
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.170.425.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.118.716.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.759.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.655.46.8
– Net Position:-18,25720,425-2,168
– Gross Longs:73,661280,73529,738
– Gross Shorts:91,918260,31031,906
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.011.6-7.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.639.010.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.367.86.6
– Net Position:111,252-126,82215,570
– Gross Longs:139,164171,92944,665
– Gross Shorts:27,912298,75129,095
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.736.416.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.225.9-13.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.925.39.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.751.712.4
– Net Position:102,034-92,450-9,584
– Gross Longs:156,83888,28133,814
– Gross Shorts:54,804180,73143,398
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.59.136.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-5.3-12.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.637.312.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.526.910.9
– Net Position:-27,02223,6863,336
– Gross Longs:60,38384,74228,143
– Gross Shorts:87,40561,05624,807
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.1100.098.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.916.519.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.349.26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.545.46.9
– Net Position:-5,4136,321-908
– Gross Longs:52,62482,68010,665
– Gross Shorts:58,03776,35911,573
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.694.610.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.01.43.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.231.14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.951.83.3
– Net Position:61,714-66,2514,537
– Gross Longs:135,29299,73015,048
– Gross Shorts:73,578165,98110,511
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.041.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.7-38.24.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.837.711.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.517.19.6
– Net Position:-83,18875,3697,819
– Gross Longs:101,941137,97743,119
– Gross Shorts:185,12962,60835,300
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.89.326.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
22 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Sugar bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (14,357 contracts) with Coffee (12,124 contracts), Sugar (9,384 contracts), Cotton (7,749 contracts), Live Cattle (7,456 contracts) and Corn (2,327 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-1,836 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-3,065 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,095 contracts), Wheat (-3,854 contracts) and Cocoa (-558 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued bullish strength in the Sugar speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators have added a total of +58,516 contracts to the net position over the past 4-week period.

The bullish sentiment has now pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in the past 84-weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2021.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level (a 3-year range of speculator positions, on a 0-100 percent scale) has also increased with a score of 86.5 percent this week and up from a score of 83.3 percent last week. Its 6-week trend of strength scores has increased by 10 percent.

The Sugar futures price has also been flying high and touched its highest level since April of 2012 this week. The Sugar front-month futures price has risen for five consecutive weeks and closed at approximately $24.83 on Friday. Sugar futures are now up by over 40 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,913,19246244,57521-273,2477828,67247
Gold482,25428189,89361-216,4254026,53246
Silver158,3714626,59556-38,6564712,06133
Copper206,216478,93436-16,280607,34665
Palladium11,84882-5,637136,15189-51411
Platinum63,7945324,31972-28,202353,88320
Natural Gas1,330,94774-139,98616111,8938428,09347
Brent146,38410-43,3222039,827803,49556
Heating Oil260,459208,86543-24,9876516,12254
Soybeans683,16124177,51059-149,49145-28,01925
Corn1,319,55117105,63644-41,24466-64,39214
Coffee190,253537,00165-38,309381,30828
Sugar961,06062269,17286-326,1981057,02678
Wheat378,53154-70,536265,243955,29398

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (86 percent), Soybean Meal (76 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (2 percent) and the Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.2 percent)
Sugar (86.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (83.3 percent)
Coffee (65.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (52.9 percent)
Soybeans (58.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (75.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.1 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (84.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.7 percent)
Cotton (12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (97.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

 

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (6 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-21 percent), Lean Hogs (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.1 percent)
Sugar (9.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.4 percent)
Coffee (22.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybeans (-1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-22.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cotton (-1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.848.18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.851.313.2
– Net Position:105,636-41,244-64,392
– Gross Longs:340,625635,232109,200
– Gross Shorts:234,989676,476173,592
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.566.013.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.30.4-4.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 269,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.540.111.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.474.15.1
– Net Position:269,172-326,19857,026
– Gross Longs:340,696385,588105,872
– Gross Shorts:71,524711,78648,846
– Long to Short Ratio:4.8 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.59.678.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.8-10.510.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.244.14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.764.33.8
– Net Position:37,001-38,3091,308
– Gross Longs:55,54283,9828,620
– Gross Shorts:18,541122,2917,312
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.437.828.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-22.36.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 177,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.143.36.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.165.211.0
– Net Position:177,510-149,491-28,019
– Gross Longs:219,301296,14947,114
– Gross Shorts:41,791445,64075,133
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.945.125.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.1-2.818.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.058.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.057.36.1
– Net Position:-9,4516,9442,507
– Gross Longs:72,093282,06531,891
– Gross Shorts:81,544275,12129,384
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.418.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.617.26.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.536.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.868.77.1
– Net Position:130,269-146,88016,611
– Gross Longs:152,035165,43048,978
– Gross Shorts:21,766312,31032,367
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.625.921.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.425.9-12.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.425.69.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.752.612.6
– Net Position:102,072-92,780-9,292
– Gross Longs:155,95688,01733,970
– Gross Shorts:53,884180,79743,262
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.58.737.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.58.7-3.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.136.112.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.826.111.0
– Net Position:-27,15723,4433,714
– Gross Longs:65,67184,33929,502
– Gross Shorts:92,82860,89625,788
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.515.019.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.845.87.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.150.16.3
– Net Position:4,470-7,2292,759
– Gross Longs:55,15677,14213,335
– Gross Shorts:50,68684,37110,576
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.185.532.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.1-0.715.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.833.34.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.852.73.3
– Net Position:59,355-64,1434,788
– Gross Longs:131,355110,05015,617
– Gross Shorts:72,000174,19310,829
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.61.644.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-6.64.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.037.911.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.620.79.7
– Net Position:-70,53665,2435,293
– Gross Longs:105,806143,55942,074
– Gross Shorts:176,34278,31636,781
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.394.697.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-5.411.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
15 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost their Coffee bets to best level in 26-Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (17,619 contracts) with Sugar (13,137 contracts), Coffee (12,229 contracts), Live Cattle (8,442 contracts), Cotton (3,464 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,969 contracts) and Soybean Meal (2,810 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-5,883 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-4,303 contracts), Soybeans (-4,999 contracts) and Cocoa (-332 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee bets rebound to best level in 26-Weeks

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rebound in the Coffee speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Coffee jumped this week by over +12,000 contracts after having fallen in the previous two weeks. Coffee’s speculative positioning is showing positive trends again with the net position back in bullish territory for each of the past ten weeks. This follows a streak of thirteen straight weeks of bearish Coffee positions that took place from November 8th to January 31st.

Coffee speculative bets had experienced a strong few years with positions rising strongly in the second half of 2020 and maintaining that momentum through 2021 and most of 2022. The end of 2022 saw the shine fall off the Coffee positions and the Coffee price as well with the Coffee futures price dropping over 35 percent from September to January.

The Coffee price hit a recent bottom in January and has been back on a bullish trend with prices gaining by more than 30 percent since that bottom compared to this week’s close. This week saw the Coffee futures price rise for a second straight week and with a 2-week total gain of over +10 percent.

The speculator’s net position, meanwhile, is now at the most bullish level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to October 11th of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,875,14043235,63219-255,4118219,77932
Gold476,56725192,74562-216,5484023,80340
Silver142,6992923,71852-36,2555012,53736
Copper209,50150-4,30325-1,217725,52053
Palladium12,29088-7,07307,491100-41817
Platinum60,1154113,33346-18,511555,17837
Natural Gas1,355,67279-140,89516111,1818429,71451
Brent146,90511-42,6102237,056745,55484
Heating Oil268,008239,69444-30,7705321,07671
Soybeans716,90631179,34660-148,51145-30,83520
Corn1,338,48419103,30943-45,28365-58,02619
Coffee192,988724,87753-25,2415136417
Sugar992,08669259,78883-317,3081257,52079
Wheat391,89961-66,682562,318924,36494

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent), Live Cattle (84 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week are all in Extreme-Bullish levels.  Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Soybeans (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and the Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (41.0 percent)
Sugar (83.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (52.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybeans (59.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (61.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.7 percent)
Live Cattle (84.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (74.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.6 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.7 percent)
Wheat (5.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.4 percent)

 

Sugar & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Coffee (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (8 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-25.2 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (8.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-30.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-19.6 percent)
Cotton (-3.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (0.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.147.98.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.451.313.0
– Net Position:103,309-45,283-58,026
– Gross Longs:336,195640,896115,312
– Gross Shorts:232,886686,179173,338
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.265.419.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.14.38.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 259,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.439.010.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.270.95.1
– Net Position:259,788-317,30857,520
– Gross Longs:341,373386,564108,381
– Gross Shorts:81,585703,87250,861
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.312.179.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.4-15.321.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.646.34.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.759.44.2
– Net Position:24,877-25,241364
– Gross Longs:45,50389,3398,467
– Gross Shorts:20,626114,5808,103
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.950.817.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-7.4-12.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 179,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.944.16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.964.810.8
– Net Position:179,346-148,511-30,835
– Gross Longs:214,620316,23446,749
– Gross Shorts:35,274464,74577,584
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.645.420.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-10.616.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.858.76.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.157.06.7
– Net Position:-6,3568,180-1,824
– Gross Longs:71,655284,39230,877
– Gross Shorts:78,011276,21232,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.098.11.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.524.9-33.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.438.211.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.868.96.9
– Net Position:115,912-134,05218,140
– Gross Longs:136,621166,24648,190
– Gross Shorts:20,709300,29830,050
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.132.629.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.719.729.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 94,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.126.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.952.612.5
– Net Position:94,616-87,749-6,867
– Gross Longs:144,36288,30135,140
– Gross Shorts:49,746176,05042,007
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.214.851.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.213.68.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.536.212.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.026.711.2
– Net Position:-24,09221,6232,469
– Gross Longs:65,09782,73327,981
– Gross Shorts:89,18961,11025,512
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.415.322.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.548.86.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.347.16.6
– Net Position:-3,2793,057222
– Gross Longs:51,25590,94112,514
– Gross Shorts:54,53487,88412,292
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.292.417.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.83.9-4.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.334.74.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.153.53.3
– Net Position:59,913-65,0755,162
– Gross Longs:126,337120,83816,466
– Gross Shorts:66,424185,91311,304
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.30.448.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-6.77.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.034.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.018.59.7
– Net Position:-66,68262,3184,364
– Gross Longs:109,545134,82642,293
– Gross Shorts:176,22772,50837,929
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.591.894.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-3.613.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
08 Apr

Sugar Speculator bets rise higher as Futures prices hit highest level since 2016

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a little higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (23,822 contracts) with Soybeans (23,325 contracts), Live Cattle (21,476 contracts), Corn (14,162 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,214 contracts) and Cotton (3,378 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-4,103 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-1,439 contracts), Cocoa (-1,028 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,717 contracts) and Wheat (-254 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculator bets rise higher as Futures prices hit highest level since 2016

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the gains in the Sugar speculator’s bullish positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week by over +23,000 contracts and have gained for two straight weeks as well as for three out of the past five weeks. The bullish sentiment has pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in nine weeks and are currently also at the second highest level since November of 2021 with a current net position of +246,651 contracts.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level has been on the rise with a current score of 79 percent (out of a 3-year range on a 0-100 percent scale) while its 6-week strength score trend has increased by 5 percent.

The Sugar futures price has been in a strong bullish trend, climbing for a third consecutive week and closing out the week higher by over 8 percent. This week’s front month futures price reached above $23.00 which is the highest prices have touched since 2016. Overall, Sugar prices are up by approximately 25 percent since the start of the year.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-04-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,858,44641226,12717-239,9708613,84322
Gold476,59225195,21663-218,2504023,03438
Silver131,2101621,28349-31,4355610,15223
Copper218,68757-2,95426-4,897697,85168
Palladium11,82082-6,64647,01197-36520
Platinum59,1563815,42351-19,201543,77819
Natural Gas1,365,65681-130,48520100,7378029,74851
Brent146,92511-38,5403033,701674,83975
Heating Oil270,347244,85635-22,6076517,75160
Soybeans746,11137184,34562-163,26740-21,07837
Corn1,334,6711985,69041-53,31464-32,37640
Coffee201,4251312,64840-13,1196347118
Sugar1,005,89272246,65179-304,0191657,36879
Wheat375,99952-60,7991054,864855,935100

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (99 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (75 percent), Soybean Meal (67 percent) and Soybeans (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Lean Hogs (2 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Wheat (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (41.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (39.2 percent)
Sugar (78.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (70.5 percent)
Coffee (40.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (44.6 percent)
Soybeans (61.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (67.4 percent)
Live Cattle (74.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (50.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (3.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.1 percent)
Cocoa (98.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (10.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.6 percent)

 

Cocoa & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (18 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (0.3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-30 percent), Corn (-25 percent) and Lean Hogs (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.8 percent)
Sugar (4.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.0 percent)
Soybeans (-3.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-12.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-30.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-32.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-30.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-40.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-20.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-15.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.4 percent)
Wheat (-11.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 85,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.248.310.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.852.312.5
– Net Position:85,690-53,314-32,376
– Gross Longs:310,288644,140134,134
– Gross Shorts:224,598697,454166,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.064.340.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.222.233.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 246,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 222,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.638.610.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.168.95.0
– Net Position:246,651-304,01957,368
– Gross Longs:328,123388,632107,776
– Gross Shorts:81,472692,65150,408
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.715.978.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-7.516.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.949.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.655.74.2
– Net Position:12,648-13,119471
– Gross Longs:37,98599,1749,019
– Gross Shorts:25,337112,2938,548
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.462.818.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.31.1-17.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 184,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.843.17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.165.010.5
– Net Position:184,345-163,267-21,078
– Gross Longs:214,749321,61257,051
– Gross Shorts:30,404484,87978,129
– Long to Short Ratio:7.1 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.640.336.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.5-4.536.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.058.86.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.956.56.5
– Net Position:-9,32511,432-2,107
– Gross Longs:67,755284,78129,453
– Gross Shorts:77,080273,34931,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.334.1-50.2

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 113,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.138.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.268.36.8
– Net Position:113,102-130,79617,694
– Gross Longs:135,891167,54947,471
– Gross Shorts:22,789298,34529,777
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.734.327.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.832.09.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 86,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.527.110.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.350.812.9
– Net Position:86,174-78,189-7,985
– Gross Longs:139,99489,21834,675
– Gross Shorts:53,820167,40742,660
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.726.444.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.320.66.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.036.111.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.927.411.6
– Net Position:-19,78919,479310
– Gross Longs:67,17380,67526,223
– Gross Shorts:86,96261,19625,913
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.197.599.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.016.525.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.649.15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.045.06.6
– Net Position:-6,7438,030-1,287
– Gross Longs:49,55495,21011,458
– Gross Shorts:56,29787,18012,745
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.695.88.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.83.7-10.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.536.44.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.652.33.0
– Net Position:60,245-64,2273,982
– Gross Longs:127,043146,54116,086
– Gross Shorts:66,798210,76812,104
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.71.536.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-16.2-15.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.434.311.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.619.79.8
– Net Position:-60,79954,8645,935
– Gross Longs:99,290129,01542,631
– Gross Shorts:160,08974,15136,696
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.484.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.16.822.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
01 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to multi-year highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (23,427 contracts) with Sugar (12,173 contracts), Corn (12,052 contracts), Cotton (1,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,041 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,002 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-18,802 contracts) with Soybeans (-10,767 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,350 contracts), Coffee (-1,945 contracts) and Wheat (-1,342 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa speculator bets and futures prices hit multi-year highs

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued rise in the Cocoa speculator’s bullish positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week by over +20,000 contracts and have gained for two straight weeks as well as for five out of the past seven weeks (total 7-week rise of +38,842 contracts). The Cocoa net positions has now advanced to the highest net speculator position level of the past 160 weeks, dating back to March 3rd of 2020 when positions totaled +73,970 net contracts.

Cocoa’s speculator strength score level is at the top of its 3-year range at 100 percent while its strength score trend (6-weeks) has jumped by 41 percent and illustrates its recent speculator sentiment strength.

The Cocoa futures price has been on a strong bullish run since hitting a bottom in September of 2022. This week marked a third straight week of gains and Cocoa futures touched their highest level since 2017 at over the 2960 threshold.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-28-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,785,80735181,0696-191,6169710,54716
Gold478,61126181,63057-201,5084619,87830
Silver117,395013,36137-21,875678,51414
Copper211,88952-1,54527-4,924696,46959
Palladium11,51478-6,76437,19398-42916
Platinum57,2443210,37440-14,781634,40727
Natural Gas1,279,18064-126,1972295,3827830,81553
Brent159,74221-52,506048,5691003,93762
Heating Oil271,542259,26344-26,9765617,71360
Soybeans723,43332161,02052-129,32152-31,69919
Corn1,345,8862071,52839-12,51870-59,01018
Coffee200,8941316,75145-15,70960-1,0420
Sugar953,47760222,82971-275,1572452,32873
Wheat373,92651-60,5451160,3249022192

 

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Sugar (71 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (67 percent), Soybeans (52 percent) and Live Cattle (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Cotton (1 percent) and Wheat (11 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.6 percent)
Sugar (70.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (66.3 percent)
Coffee (44.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (46.6 percent)
Soybeans (52.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (67.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (77.2 percent)
Live Cattle (50.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (56.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.0 percent)
Cotton (1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (70.1 percent)
Wheat (10.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.7 percent)

 

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (41 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-30 percent), Corn (-30 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-28.5 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.7 percent)
Coffee (12.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-24.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-30.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-14.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-40.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-28.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.2 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.6 percent)
Cocoa (41.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.7 percent)
Wheat (-22.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.649.18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.350.112.7
– Net Position:71,528-12,518-59,010
– Gross Longs:317,171661,172112,429
– Gross Shorts:245,643673,690171,439
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.270.118.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.830.018.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 222,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.037.511.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.666.45.6
– Net Position:222,829-275,15752,328
– Gross Longs:314,608357,720106,016
– Gross Shorts:91,779632,87753,688
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.524.272.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.51.214.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.049.14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.657.05.1
– Net Position:16,751-15,709-1,042
– Gross Longs:40,11298,7339,239
– Gross Shorts:23,361114,44210,281
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.660.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.0-8.9-33.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 161,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.345.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.063.010.8
– Net Position:161,020-129,321-31,699
– Gross Longs:204,717326,71846,723
– Gross Shorts:43,697456,03978,422
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.452.119.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.17.117.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.658.26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.356.46.4
– Net Position:-7,6088,146-538
– Gross Longs:68,222270,89329,443
– Gross Shorts:75,830262,74729,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.724.9-20.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.138.310.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.669.76.5
– Net Position:114,541-131,09516,554
– Gross Longs:138,126159,90543,573
– Gross Shorts:23,585291,00027,019
– Long to Short Ratio:5.9 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.434.221.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.130.6-2.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.728.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.549.712.8
– Net Position:64,698-63,683-1,015
– Gross Longs:112,14788,37838,033
– Gross Shorts:47,449152,06139,048
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.644.183.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.535.339.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.537.411.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.527.411.1
– Net Position:-22,00321,98320
– Gross Longs:64,99082,47824,503
– Gross Shorts:86,99360,49524,483
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.097.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.015.71.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.450.05.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.544.06.5
– Net Position:-10,12111,990-1,869
– Gross Longs:50,89399,93411,070
– Gross Shorts:61,01487,94412,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.198.54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.017.4-26.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.436.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.053.73.4
– Net Position:61,273-65,4184,145
– Gross Longs:121,238135,58216,709
– Gross Shorts:59,965201,00012,564
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.038.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.4-40.7-6.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.235.59.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.419.39.6
– Net Position:-60,54560,324221
– Gross Longs:101,707132,61636,122
– Gross Shorts:162,25272,29235,901
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.690.091.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.020.717.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
26 Mar

COT Large Speculators have dropped their Corn bullish bets to near 130-week lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

* This COT data is fully up-to-date after weeks of delays due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). The hacking incident had disrupted the ability for the CFTC to report large trader positions.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Coffee & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (15,699 contracts) with Coffee (6,386 contracts), Wheat (6,111 contracts), Cocoa (5,827 contracts) and Soybeans (3,793 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-25,773 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-24,378 contracts), Sugar (-20,487 contracts), Lean Hogs (-11,936 contracts), Cotton (-8,794 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-1,481 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent sharp decreases in the Corn speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn have been in somewhat of a free-fall over the past five weeks (despite this week’s gain) as Corn bets have dropped for four out of the past five weeks and by a total of -245,236 contracts over that time-frame. The speculator positioning have sharply declined from a total of +304,712 contracts on February 14th to a total of just +59,476 contracts through Tuesday.

The last two weeks marked the first time that net positions have been under +100,000 contracts since September of 2020, a span of about 130 weeks. Corn’s speculator strength score level has dipped to 37.6 percent while its 6-week strength score trend has illuminated its recent weakness with a -28.5 percent trend score.

Corn’s futures price has risen for the past two weeks but is off the lofty heights of 2022 when prices reached highs in the 750-800 range. This week Corn closed out near the 644.00 level after bouncing off of support at the 600 level over the previous few weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Mar-21-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,791,90235154,3410-178,90410024,56340
Gold469,87422158,60547-183,5685324,96343
Silver119,08203,46223-12,681799,21917
Copper201,63644-12,351177,536804,81549
Palladium11,64780-7,01817,369100-35121
Platinum61,416459,52638-14,141644,61530
Natural Gas1,283,03765-144,68114113,4408531,24154
Brent149,30211-46,3492043,543782,80647
Heating Oil279,105289,82945-22,4776012,64842
Soybeans696,28026171,78757-141,84848-29,93922
Corn1,349,3722159,476383,79372-63,26915
Coffee201,0181318,69647-17,67358-1,0230
Sugar929,41855210,65666-258,5222947,86667
Wheat370,29749-59,2031259,32589-12290

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (77 percent) and Cocoa (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (66 percent), Soybeans (57 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (37.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (35.6 percent)
Sugar (66.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.4 percent)
Coffee (46.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybeans (56.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (77.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (90.0 percent)
Live Cattle (56.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (11.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (75.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (67.7 percent)
Wheat (11.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.6 percent)

 

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (21 percent) and Coffee (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and represent the only two positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-28 percent), Cotton (-18 percent) and Soybean Oil (-18 percent) following next with lowest trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-28.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-32.3 percent)
Sugar (-8.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.5 percent)
Coffee (17.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (14.6 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-28.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (20.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.1 percent)
Cotton (-17.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.5 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.249.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.849.213.1
– Net Position:59,4763,793-63,269
– Gross Longs:327,137667,983113,622
– Gross Shorts:267,661664,190176,891
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.672.414.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.529.612.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 210,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 231,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.638.110.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.965.95.7
– Net Position:210,656-258,52247,866
– Gross Longs:302,634353,905101,185
– Gross Shorts:91,978612,42753,319
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.329.067.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.76.81.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.449.63.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.158.34.2
– Net Position:18,696-17,673-1,023
– Gross Longs:43,07299,6067,452
– Gross Shorts:24,376117,2798,475
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.658.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-14.6-24.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 171,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,793 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 167,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.344.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.664.911.2
– Net Position:171,787-141,848-29,939
– Gross Longs:210,762310,32547,727
– Gross Shorts:38,975452,17377,666
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.747.721.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.2-2.818.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.456.96.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.556.56.7
– Net Position:-5671,924-1,357
– Gross Longs:74,741259,79629,346
– Gross Shorts:75,308257,87230,703
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.5100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.920.2-26.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 133,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.336.810.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.271.86.8
– Net Position:133,343-150,41417,071
– Gross Longs:155,660157,93146,260
– Gross Shorts:22,317308,34529,189
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.224.024.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.513.96.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 69,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -25,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.528.011.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.449.412.4
– Net Position:69,700-67,647-2,053
– Gross Longs:118,51888,37037,174
– Gross Shorts:48,818156,01739,227
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.239.277.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.425.523.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,717 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.836.611.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.828.811.3
– Net Position:-17,65317,350303
– Gross Longs:63,40480,72325,180
– Gross Shorts:81,05763,37324,877
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.099.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.4-1.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.150.75.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.043.47.2
– Net Position:-11,58214,226-2,644
– Gross Longs:51,42699,63011,525
– Gross Shorts:63,00885,40414,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.619.5-32.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.041.54.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.153.83.1
– Net Position:37,846-42,6364,790
– Gross Longs:96,676143,11515,642
– Gross Shorts:58,830185,75110,852
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.823.744.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.3-26.840.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.435.99.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.419.99.8
– Net Position:-59,20359,325-122
– Gross Longs:105,293133,06935,982
– Gross Shorts:164,49673,74436,104
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.789.090.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.79.710.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
11 Mar

Soft Commodities COT Charts: February 21st data showed Speculators boosted bets of Cocoa & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher that week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (17,227 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,584 contracts) with Coffee (7,266 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,105 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,600 contracts), Live Cattle (3,446 contracts) and Soybeans (1,374 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Corn (-21,689 contracts) with Wheat (-13,364 contracts), Cotton (-14,119 contracts) and Sugar (-5,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-21-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,756,02932219,6714-241,2979621,62635
Gold422,6480107,10121-129,3557722,25436
Silver123,90639,90232-23,0506613,14839
Copper219,205582,04935-8,510626,46163
Palladium11,94384-5,18805,552100-36420
Platinum67,499582,90522-8,394765,48942
Natural Gas1,270,68663-179,26417141,5158237,74969
Brent150,90712-39,9003336,847653,05351
Heating Oil259,5582017,56567-26,091458,52628
Soybeans731,52934193,26067-150,14145-43,1190
Corn1,340,32220283,02366-209,63542-73,3886
Coffee196,128912,31640-14,198621,88226
Sugar926,55353233,33874-277,7422344,40463
Wheat359,36042-47,488147,55297-64100

 

Strength Scores were led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (100 percent) led the softs markets on February 21st. Sugar (74 percent), Cocoa (69 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (1 percent), Cotton (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (10 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Soybean Oil (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (74.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (76.0 percent)
Coffee (40.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (32.6 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.1 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (10.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.0 percent)
Cotton (5.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.8 percent)
Cocoa (69.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.4 percent)
Wheat (0.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.9 percent)

 

Coffee & Live Cattle topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (28 percent) and Live Cattle (28 percent) led the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (21 percent), Soybeans (20 percent) and Sugar (16 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent) led the downside trend scores that week with Soybean Oil (-18 percent), Cotton (-16 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (15.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.6 percent)
Coffee (27.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.0 percent)
Soybeans (19.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (27.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-25.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-53.0 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.1 percent)
Cocoa (20.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.1 percent)
Wheat (-8.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing equaled a net position of 283,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -21,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,712 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.941.98.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.857.514.0
– Net Position:283,023-209,635-73,388
– Gross Longs:414,502561,129114,376
– Gross Shorts:131,479770,764187,764
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.242.05.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-3.8-16.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing equaled a net position of 233,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,826 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.339.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.169.55.6
– Net Position:233,338-277,74244,404
– Gross Longs:317,876366,00195,884
– Gross Shorts:84,538643,74351,480
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.223.562.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-13.0-0.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 12,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 7,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,050 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.546.25.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.253.54.1
– Net Position:12,316-14,1981,882
– Gross Longs:44,12290,64010,018
– Gross Shorts:31,806104,8388,136
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.161.825.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.7-25.4-21.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 193,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,886 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.845.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.365.712.4
– Net Position:193,260-150,141-43,119
– Gross Longs:239,615330,71947,851
– Gross Shorts:46,355480,86090,970
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.244.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.6-15.9-11.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 36,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,177 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.952.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.963.15.2
– Net Position:36,282-46,88710,605
– Gross Longs:86,110240,46134,271
– Gross Shorts:49,828287,34823,666
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.870.753.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.815.45.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 175,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 3,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,351 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.533.810.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.175.67.0
– Net Position:175,951-191,70815,757
– Gross Longs:190,333154,81748,064
– Gross Shorts:14,382346,52532,307
– Long to Short Ratio:13.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.014.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-6.0-36.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 104,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,828 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.023.310.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.051.613.1
– Net Position:104,274-95,188-9,086
– Gross Longs:151,31078,36835,012
– Gross Shorts:47,036173,55644,098
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.038.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.6-26.0-11.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,880 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.135.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.333.812.9
– Net Position:1,7042,763-4,467
– Gross Longs:65,67874,07022,814
– Gross Shorts:63,97471,30727,281
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.294.874.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.825.610.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -2,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -14,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,150 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.851.26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.449.96.4
– Net Position:-2,9692,542427
– Gross Longs:51,46094,93812,306
– Gross Shorts:54,42992,39611,879
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.094.713.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.015.7-10.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 46,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 17,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,858 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.839.94.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.257.43.0
– Net Position:46,085-51,5945,509
– Gross Longs:105,772117,96714,353
– Gross Shorts:59,687169,5618,844
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.427.151.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-23.215.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -47,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -13,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,124 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.739.010.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.925.810.3
– Net Position:-47,48847,552-64
– Gross Longs:92,453140,22436,892
– Gross Shorts:139,94192,67236,956
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.996.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.24.717.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
25 Feb

COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-31-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,726,37829243,82010-266,6228922,80237
Gold471,64216160,28136-180,5206320,23931
Silver138,2631427,31644-40,4345713,11837
Copper224,8246117,21550-24,414487,19967
Palladium11,24534-4,27104,632100-36120
Platinum69,1214016,13733-22,213656,07649
Natural Gas1,146,70938-169,21424134,0137635,20163
Brent156,92916-43,4072639,572703,83561
Heating Oil265,4442221,74774-45,4282323,68180
Soybeans689,80625178,39867-137,15346-41,2451
Corn1,298,16414296,81268-225,62240-71,1902
Coffee221,89429-1,88125-926752,80739
Sugar995,39155247,07279-292,4481945,37664
Wheat350,87129-40,060741,56490-1,504100

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.442.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.559.414.4
– Net Position:296,812-225,622-71,190
– Gross Longs:407,766545,068115,712
– Gross Shorts:110,954770,690186,902
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.939.82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.4-9.5-20.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.539.210.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.768.55.7
– Net Position:247,072-292,44845,376
– Gross Longs:333,718389,834102,320
– Gross Shorts:86,646682,28256,944
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.919.364.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-2.7-5.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.746.24.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.546.63.5
– Net Position:-1,881-9262,807
– Gross Longs:45,937102,56510,630
– Gross Shorts:47,818103,4917,823
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.575.038.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-4.731.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.346.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.466.712.6
– Net Position:178,398-137,153-41,245
– Gross Longs:222,823323,16645,644
– Gross Shorts:44,425460,31986,889
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.846.31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.2-14.8-14.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.252.58.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.861.27.0
– Net Position:31,371-36,7975,426
– Gross Longs:77,553223,98635,438
– Gross Shorts:46,182260,78330,012
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.577.033.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.024.7-22.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.033.111.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.073.97.3
– Net Position:157,830-173,74115,911
– Gross Longs:174,746141,04547,162
– Gross Shorts:16,916314,78631,251
– Long to Short Ratio:10.3 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.05.715.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-5.3-31.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.528.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.951.512.4
– Net Position:77,223-72,958-4,265
– Gross Longs:126,87488,27434,568
– Gross Shorts:49,651161,23238,833
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.213.465.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.0-27.2-5.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.236.611.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.935.011.8
– Net Position:-3,5943,412182
– Gross Longs:67,14978,66825,530
– Gross Shorts:70,74375,25625,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.931.660.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.247.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.257.35.4
– Net Position:16,905-20,4883,583
– Gross Longs:61,398100,10814,890
– Gross Shorts:44,493120,59611,307
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.278.733.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-1.27.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.047.44.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.756.63.2
– Net Position:25,159-27,8182,659
– Gross Longs:93,440142,79312,252
– Gross Shorts:68,281170,6119,593
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.759.923.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.3-5.9-14.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.638.310.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.126.410.7
– Net Position:-40,06041,564-1,504
– Gross Longs:89,996134,23635,913
– Gross Shorts:130,05692,67237,417
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.590.4100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.80.513.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
28 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,660,45023249,79912-273,2468823,44738
Gold499,92725157,67335-180,5546322,88137
Silver134,9221225,68442-39,4615813,77741
Copper213,3985220,17052-26,542466,37262
Palladium9,36320-3,29783,53491-23727
Platinum72,6134620,26139-25,819615,55842
Natural Gas1,102,76027-170,97224138,4827832,49057
Brent153,68614-36,8004133,917572,88348
Heating Oil278,1592725,36080-48,5402023,18079
Soybeans667,41620155,22259-117,94552-37,2778
Corn1,274,41011277,36965-205,66243-71,7072
Coffee231,36035-22,728420,167962,56135
Sugar924,84842185,08458-229,3393744,25563
Wheat350,33127-48,320050,423100-2,10399

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

 

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.543.89.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.760.014.7
– Net Position:277,369-205,662-71,707
– Gross Longs:388,317558,456115,106
– Gross Shorts:110,948764,118186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.542.62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-4.6-22.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.243.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.268.65.1
– Net Position:185,084-229,33944,255
– Gross Longs:270,150404,94891,086
– Gross Shorts:85,066634,28746,831
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.637.462.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.7-0.210.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.652.94.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.444.23.5
– Net Position:-22,72820,1672,561
– Gross Longs:45,404122,40010,598
– Gross Shorts:68,132102,2338,037
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.195.935.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.611.621.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.946.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.764.312.5
– Net Position:155,222-117,945-37,277
– Gross Longs:206,329311,30746,219
– Gross Shorts:51,107429,25283,496
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.452.58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-11.7-10.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.150.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.361.67.4
– Net Position:39,250-44,5145,264
– Gross Longs:80,599203,13334,963
– Gross Shorts:41,349247,64729,699
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.972.233.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.315.1-28.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.132.911.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.573.27.1
– Net Position:149,785-169,00819,223
– Gross Longs:168,470138,08849,137
– Gross Shorts:18,685307,09629,914
– Long to Short Ratio:9.0 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.37.832.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-7.73.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.030.611.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.150.412.2
– Net Position:66,228-62,823-3,405
– Gross Longs:117,24996,72035,368
– Gross Shorts:51,021159,54338,773
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.427.270.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-10.51.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.336.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.837.012.5
– Net Position:3,166-682-2,484
– Gross Longs:66,93875,92723,357
– Gross Shorts:63,77276,60925,841
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.496.995.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.827.747.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.648.56.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.058.05.3
– Net Position:17,833-19,6791,846
– Gross Longs:61,599100,98112,918
– Gross Shorts:43,766120,66011,072
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.979.222.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-3.49.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.147.34.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.657.22.9
– Net Position:24,941-28,9784,037
– Gross Longs:90,986138,39412,460
– Gross Shorts:66,045167,3728,423
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.558.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-2.36.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.340.79.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.126.310.3
– Net Position:-48,32050,423-2,103
– Gross Longs:88,787142,42233,981
– Gross Shorts:137,10791,99936,084
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.099.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.68.24.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
21 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Wheat bets to lowest in 192-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (38,078 contracts) with Soybeans (28,737 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,640 contracts) and Cocoa (477 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-12,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,862 contracts), Cotton (-9,991 contracts), Sugar (-1,015 contracts), Wheat (-2,298 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,604 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,851 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued declines in the Wheat speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Wheat fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the twelfth time in the past fifteen weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Wheat (currently at -42,014 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 192 weeks, dating back to May 14th of 2019.

Wheat prices have been under pressure as well with prices trading at near the lowest levels since 2021. Helping to keep Wheat sentiment and prices down have been better than expected plantings and supply of Wheat in the USA and globally.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-17-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,613,46619239,2189-255,5999216,38126
Gold491,81822153,24034-175,9136522,67337
Silver131,862931,46849-45,3675213,89940
Copper201,4554216,23849-22,695496,45763
Palladium8,79916-2,751122,90286-15133
Platinum71,1444123,54441-28,913595,36940
Natural Gas1,082,45824-177,21925146,4187730,80153
Brent147,1729-25,9806223,414372,56644
Heating Oil269,9112418,50670-40,6122822,10675
Soybeans651,32817169,06564-130,79048-38,2756
Corn1,251,0338271,87365-213,79841-58,07511
Coffee224,82931-26,745024,2511002,49434
Sugar898,52637186,69858-233,1443646,44665
Wheat340,83023-42,014045,261100-3,24794

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (65 percent), Soybeans (64 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and the Lean Hogs (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.9 percent)
Sugar (58.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.5 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybeans (63.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (43.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.0 percent)
Live Cattle (72.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (79.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.7 percent)
Cotton (13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (44.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.2 percent)

 

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Live Cattle (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Cocoa (10 percent) and Corn (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-12 percent), Cotton (-8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-4.7 percent)
Sugar (1.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (-12.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybeans (25.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (25.7 percent)
Live Cattle (23.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (32.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-27.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.8 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.0 percent)
Cocoa (9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.3 percent)
Wheat (-2.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 271,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.144.79.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.461.714.1
– Net Position:271,873-213,798-58,075
– Gross Longs:376,732558,706118,719
– Gross Shorts:104,859772,504176,794
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.841.511.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-8.0-11.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.543.110.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.769.05.0
– Net Position:186,698-233,14446,446
– Gross Longs:273,666387,18691,248
– Gross Shorts:86,968620,33044,802
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.136.365.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-2.04.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.955.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.844.23.7
– Net Position:-26,74524,2512,494
– Gross Longs:44,803123,56510,878
– Gross Shorts:71,54899,3148,384
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.034.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.411.310.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 169,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.346.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.366.412.5
– Net Position:169,065-130,790-38,275
– Gross Longs:216,831301,98543,462
– Gross Shorts:47,766432,77581,737
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.948.36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.4-23.0-14.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.849.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.068.86.3
– Net Position:59,495-71,07711,582
– Gross Longs:89,394187,76235,188
– Gross Shorts:29,899258,83923,606
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.855.556.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.74.9-3.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 166,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.730.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.675.06.7
– Net Position:166,350-186,13319,783
– Gross Longs:181,071124,54947,680
– Gross Shorts:14,721310,68227,897
– Long to Short Ratio:12.3 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.035.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.5-20.31.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.230.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.751.612.5
– Net Position:74,143-67,709-6,434
– Gross Longs:126,73795,03532,866
– Gross Shorts:52,594162,74439,300
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.320.564.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.7-21.5-13.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.637.510.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.643.013.1
– Net Position:15,907-10,939-4,968
– Gross Longs:63,07374,84221,157
– Gross Shorts:47,16685,78126,125
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.884.280.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.821.632.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.950.76.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.955.45.6
– Net Position:7,953-9,3821,429
– Gross Longs:56,634103,14612,734
– Gross Shorts:48,681112,52811,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.386.419.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.27.9-3.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.945.54.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.855.83.1
– Net Position:27,698-31,1553,457
– Gross Longs:97,065138,39413,026
– Gross Shorts:69,367169,5499,569
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.256.631.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-9.4-2.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.441.69.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.728.410.6
– Net Position:-42,01445,261-3,247
– Gross Longs:86,569141,95632,942
– Gross Shorts:128,58396,69536,189
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.093.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.02.8-1.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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