Soft Commodities

Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 6

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Cotton & Corn

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (10,996 contracts) with Cotton (10,382 contracts) and Soybean Oil (2,936 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-23,985 contracts) with Sugar (-21,858 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,769 contracts), Live Cattle (-8,766 contracts), Cocoa (-8,605 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-6,998 contracts), Coffee (-5,787 contracts) and Wheat (-1,333 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,787,495	35	349,560	53	-381,946	50	32,386	45
Gold	431,226	4	91,226	17	-111,982	81	20,756	32
Silver	125,847	14	15,344	40	-30,358	57	15,014	50
Copper	208,795	49	-21,912	12	19,952	88	1,960	31
Palladium	18,421	86	-9,718	9	9,861	93	-143	33
Platinum	81,529	85	2,616	22	-7,514	78	4,898	34
Natural Gas	1,174,386	44	-79,200	40	61,763	64	17,437	22
Brent	118,926	0	-36,543	41	35,921	65	622	18
Heating Oil	330,825	48	38,946	93	-66,348	5	27,402	93
Soybeans	803,439	49	22,503	0	-5,880	95	-16,623	64
Corn	1,367,904	23	-107,544	2	140,803	98	-33,259	86
Coffee	210,215	25	-14,449	13	13,474	89	975	24
Sugar	820,468	30	217,382	68	-255,129	32	37,747	52
Wheat	429,333	83	-61,347	23	58,242	76	3,105	82

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (68 percent), Cotton (52 percent) and Soybean Oil (48 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Coffee (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (1.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (67.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (75.5 percent)
Coffee (12.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (48.5 percent)
Live Cattle (72.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (81.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (22.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.0 percent)
Cotton (52.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (44.7 percent)
Cocoa (81.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (90.1 percent)
Wheat (23.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.1 percent)

Cotton & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (17 percent) and Sugar (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (9 percent), Live Cattle (6 percent) and Lean Hogs (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-17 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Corn (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.7 percent)
Sugar (11.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.9 percent)
Coffee (8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybeans (-16.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (5.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.1 percent)
Cotton (16.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.3 percent)
Cocoa (-7.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.4 percent)
Wheat (-18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-20.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	49.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	38.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-107,544	140,803	-33,259
– Gross Longs:	281,318	672,709	137,063
– Gross Shorts:	388,862	531,906	170,322
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.4	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.7	21.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 217,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	39.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	70.1	5.8
– Net Position:	217,382	-255,129	37,747
– Gross Longs:	305,051	320,294	85,730
– Gross Shorts:	87,669	575,423	47,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	31.7	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.8	8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	45.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	39.4	4.3
– Net Position:	-14,449	13,474	975
– Gross Longs:	53,926	96,217	10,119
– Gross Shorts:	68,375	82,743	9,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	89.3	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-8.9	4.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	50.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	51.6	8.6
– Net Position:	22,503	-5,880	-16,623
– Gross Longs:	123,800	408,742	52,183
– Gross Shorts:	101,297	414,622	68,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.8	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	14.6	3.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	46.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	61.4	5.0
– Net Position:	50,941	-60,657	9,716
– Gross Longs:	96,922	195,665	30,768
– Gross Shorts:	45,981	256,322	21,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	51.2	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.7	-2.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	43.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	60.5	5.9
– Net Position:	64,775	-78,589	13,814
– Gross Longs:	104,312	203,000	41,307
– Gross Shorts:	39,537	281,589	27,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	66.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	10.5	-11.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	30.4	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.7	12.9
– Net Position:	86,338	-72,244	-14,094
– Gross Longs:	138,419	93,825	25,803
– Gross Shorts:	52,081	166,069	39,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	34.5	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-1.6	-21.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	37.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.7	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,091	9,750	-659
– Gross Longs:	55,656	72,012	19,895
– Gross Shorts:	64,747	62,262	20,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	79.1	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-3.2	10.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	42.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	69.0	3.2
– Net Position:	58,162	-66,471	8,309
– Gross Longs:	88,465	107,180	16,235
– Gross Shorts:	30,303	173,651	7,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-15.0	-2.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 69,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	29.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.4	3.5
– Net Position:	69,933	-72,861	2,928
– Gross Longs:	117,419	84,488	12,822
– Gross Shorts:	47,486	157,349	9,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.9	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.3	-2.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	33.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	20.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-61,347	58,242	3,105
– Gross Longs:	122,733	144,907	38,732
– Gross Shorts:	184,080	86,665	35,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	75.5	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.6	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Sep

Clean Beef Firm Sees Gold in Waste Streams

Source: Streetwise Reports (9/27/23)

Consumers love beef, but producing this delicious meat at scale can be an environmental nightmare. However, freshly-proven technology from Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. promises to make beef “green” again. Read below to see why one technical analyst likes this company’s stock.

Despite the company being publicly traded for almost 30 years, you may not be familiar with Bion Environmental Technologies Inc. (BNET:OTCQB). The firm is a niche agricultural tech company with a focus on developing sustainable solutions for environmental issues in livestock agriculture.

Bion has focused on developing patented technology that provides advanced waste treatment and resource recovery for large-scale livestock production facilities (also known as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations or CAFOs), which, as many environmentalists can tell you, are some of the more polluting elements of modern large-scale agricultural production.

Bion Environmental Technologies’ third-generation tech platform (Gen3 Tech) can mitigate environmental problems, while simultaneously improving operational and resource efficiencies by recovering high-value co-products from CAFOs’ waste streams.

The tech is designed to capture and stabilize the various components of the effluent, converting them from liabilities into assets, including renewable energy, fertilizer products, and clean water, all key aspects of raising verifiably sustainable livestock.

The company is also focused on developing markets and distribution partners for its sustainable animal protein products and the low-carbon and organic fertilizer products it captures and upcycles from the waste stream.

The Catalyst: Controlled Steady State Ammonia Recovery at Scale

On September 19, Bion Environmental Technologies announced that its proof-of-concept ammonia recovery system at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility had achieved and maintained controlled steady-state operations.

The release stated, “When at steady state, the system produces an ammonium distillate (solution), the base of Bion’s nitrogen fertilizer products. Bion has begun optimizing the system’s operating parameters so that it will meet Bion’s economic models for large-scale commercial projects.”

The release anticipates at least four to eight weeks for optimization, after which time the final design for commercial projects can begin.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

The Ammonia Recovery System (ARS) at the core of the Gen3 Tech platform recovers, stabilizes, and upcycles the problematic ammonia-nitrogen in the waste stream, minimizing its environmental impacts and creating organic and low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer products.

Today, raw waste is spread on fields for its fertilizer value; however, most of the ammonia volatilizes or runs off to contribute to groundwater nitrate contamination, harmful (some toxic) algae blooms and dead zones, and formation of PM2.5, small particulate air pollution.

The release continued, “In the next few weeks, Bion intends to produce ammonium distillate at Fair Oaks in several concentrations and apply for organic certification for each product. Bion will also produce a solid/granular water-soluble nitrogen product that is climate-smart — a pure nitrogen fertilizer with a low carbon footprint that can be easily shipped and is readily available to plants.”

The company has applied to several state agencies to certify the granular product for use in organic production.

Company CEO Bill O’Neil said the company is “Very pleased with system performance at Fair Oaks, and to be back in control of our timelines. Over the next few weeks, we will conduct demonstration tours with key stakeholders in the beef industry, potential partners in distribution, banking, and project finance, and others as we establish the strategic relationships needed to develop commercial projects.”

Why This Industry? Green Concerns are Global

O’Neil continues, “Today, many are focused on climate impacts, but we believe the larger issue with livestock is ammonia, which is of increasing concern in the U.S., especially in California and Washington.”

“In the EU, a nitrogen cap has already led to social and political unrest in Ireland and the Netherlands. We think the value of being able to upcycle and redirect that ammonia so that its nitrogen can be used where and when it is needed cannot be overemphasized.”

Indeed, nitrogen has become a serious agricultural and environmental concern in many developed economies, especially those producing feedlot animals. As a 2022 article in MercoPress warns, “Farmers in the Netherlands are revolting over the government’s plan to drastically reduce nitrogen emissions by 2030.”

“This plan, as announced in practice, means that, in certain areas, farmers have to reduce their nitrogen emissions by 70%,” explains Marcel Crok, a Dutch science writer and co-founder of the Climate Intelligence Foundation. “That means they simply have to quit.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

However, with access to ammonia control practices and technologies like Bion’s, that might not be the case.

The article notes that “The proposal to sharply cut nitrogen emissions is tied to a 2019 Dutch court decision forcing the nation’s government to take more aggressive measures to curb nitrogen emissions. The Netherlands, though, has heavily regulated agriculture emissions since the 1990s, and farmers have largely complied with such rules.”

“The Netherlands emits a large quantity of nitrogen because of its massive agriculture industry, which accounts for about 87% of the country’s 124 million kilograms of annual ammonia emissions, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report showed. The nation exported US$26.8 billion worth of food products despite having a relatively tiny population compared to other major producers, according to World Bank data.”

“It is not very rational to curb Dutch agriculture if you realize that they have the highest production per acre in the world and therefore the environmental load per kilogram of food is lower than elsewhere,” explains Simon Rozendaal, a Dutch journalist and chemist.

Of course, the Netherlands is only one country facing the harsh environmental reality of industrial-scale agricultural production. Ireland, likewise, has farmers in its crosshairs.

On September 7, writing for Tri-State Livestock News, Chris McCullough reported that “Dairy farmers in the Republic of Ireland say the government does not care for the agriculture industry after threatened cuts to the country’s nitrogen derogation levels were imposed.”

“According to the National Trust for Ireland, the Nitrates Derogation is a license to spread more organic nitrogen per hectare on land than is routinely permitted under the Nitrates Directive. According to the text of the Directive, organic Nitrogen is livestock manure applied to the land each year, including by the animals themselves.”

“The current derogation limit of 250 kg/ha was due to expire on January 1, 2026, but Ireland’s failure to improve water quality has forced an EU reduction to 220 kg/ha. This new level is set to commence on January 1, 2024, in some areas, affecting around 3,000 farmers, ultimately forcing them to reduce cattle numbers or find more land to rent.”

“Dairy farmers are furious and have blamed the government for putting the future of Ireland’s multi-billion euro dairy industry in jeopardy.”

Clearly, this is a cross-jurisdictional international issue that will continue to plague producers well into the future. Alleviating the environmental stress food production causes while allowing countries to maintain viable herd sizes is an important social, structural, and food security goal, one in which Bion Environmental Technologies could play a significant role. More so, could certain regions of the U.S., where overconcentration has already led to profound impacts on local and downstream ecosystems, be next?

Why This Company? Proven Tech, No Competition

With the announcement of its successful startup at its Fair Oaks commercial scale demonstration facility, Bion Environmental Technologies has taken a big step in leading the fight to stop and reverse the environmental damage caused by CAFO facilities. When asked about competitors and comparable businesses, CEO O’Neill wasn’t able to name any other firm working on the same problems in the same manner.

“I don’t know of any true competitors,” he explained, “unless you want to count macro industry competitors, such as plant-based proteins, cellular meat. On the clean water side, Varcor/ Sedron Engineering has a tech that works for dairy but has limitations we can help with.”

“As far as the US$66 billion U.S. beef industry? No one else has developed a comprehensive solution for that sector of the livestock industry. We are unique.”

Why Now? Inflection Point From R&D to Sales

Bion Environmental Technologies could be said to be at a sweet spot right now. The company is transitioning from decades of research and development into full-swing commercialization, and all the things that come with that transition –team building, establishing partnerships and strategic alliances, as well as expanding the board, completing a private placement, and retaining an investment banker, all with the goal of uplisting to a senior exchange.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund addressed the stock on August 24, 2023, writing, “This looks like a good point to buy Bion Environmental Tech which, after being in a downtrend for much of this year, hit bottom in mid-July when it briefly touched $0.90 as we can see on its latest 3-month chart.”

“Since hitting this low, it has stabilized in a triangular pattern that comprises the latter part of what is believed to be a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, with the Left Shoulder forming in mid-June. A big reason that a valid H&S Bottom is believed to have formed is the strong volume pattern since July, with most of the volume in recent weeks being upside volume, which is why the Accumulation line has risen in a robust manner and the dissipation of downside volume.”

“On the long-term 3-year chart,” Maund continued, “We can clearly see why this is a good point for Bion to turn higher again as the downtrend from early this year has brought it back down to a zone of strong support close to long-term cyclical lows and this also shows us another attribute of this stock, for as we can see it has the habit of occasionally erupting into steep and spectacular rallies that are then followed by ‘cooling off’ periods in long and tedious downtrends.”

“Right now, it looks like it will soon break out into a possible rocket move, and if anyone who buys in this area is fortunate enough to catch such a move, it will probably be prudent to take profits if it should make it to the resistance at the top of the broad channel shown on this chart. Bion Environmental Tech is therefore rated a strong buy here for all timeframes.”

Writing in January of this year, Penny Queen was equally optimistic about the company’s long-term prospects. “What really sticks out to me about their latest announcement is how it ties Bion to Walmart. The company has been careful with its words, but you don’t have to look very deep to see the connection.”

“Bion is now planning a 45k head project with Olson Farms/TD Angus. It is worth noting that Olson Farms/TD Angus is a founding member of Sustainable Beef, LLC, a rancher-owned, US$325 million packing plant being developed in North Platte, NE.”

“Walmart just announced an equity investment to buy a minority stake in Sustainable Beef, LLC. Connecting the dots seems pretty easy here. It looks like Walmart is showing that they have sufficient demand for a premium product and want to secure its distribution. In late September, Bion added Bill Rupp to its Advisory Group; he also happens to be a principal of Sustainable Beef, LLC., a former president at Cargill and JBS, two of the world’s top three meat packers.”

“Most investors are familiar with the meteoric rise (and subsequent fall) of plant-based meat companies over 2021 and 2022,” Penny Queen explains. “I believe the lesson to be learned from it is two-fold: there is a great demand for alternatives to current farming practices, and there is still a massive demand for animal proteins. A recent survey by Midan Marketing showed that 62% of American consumers purchase premium beef.”

“I see BION being a steady grower over the next few years.”

Ownership and Share Structure

About 44% of the company is held by management and insiders and about 5% by strategic investors, Bion said. The rest is retail.

The stock is covered by several newsletter writers, including Maund, Matt Badiali, and Chris Temple, editor of The National Investor. Click in the data box above to view more of what they are saying.

Bion has a market cap of US$60.36 million and 48.9 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$2.30 and US$0.505.

Important Disclosures:

Owen Ferguson wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (9,014 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,055 contracts), Lean Hogs (5,402 contracts) and Cocoa (1,403 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-42,356 contracts) with Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,933 contracts), Cotton (-5,028 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,467 contracts), Wheat (-3,209 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,112 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,791,696	35	326,871	47	-348,713	57	21,842	24
Gold	441,221	9	123,864	32	-144,810	68	20,946	32
Silver	125,292	14	18,033	44	-32,040	55	14,007	44
Copper	196,198	39	-12,334	20	9,886	80	2,448	34
Palladium	17,838	82	-10,712	2	10,761	99	-49	39
Platinum	87,021	100	6,721	31	-12,396	68	5,675	44
Natural Gas	1,171,747	44	-112,044	27	86,523	74	25,521	41
Brent	136,160	13	-48,610	17	47,945	90	665	18
Heating Oil	334,395	50	36,922	92	-62,799	7	25,877	88
Soybeans	740,047	36	85,217	23	-68,440	73	-16,777	64
Corn	1,268,176	10	-87,988	0	118,836	100	-30,848	90
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	996,532	70	244,435	77	-297,725	19	53,290	72
Wheat	391,669	61	-49,619	32	46,521	66	3,098	82

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (77 percent), Soybean Meal (51 percent) and Cotton (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybeans (23 percent), Lean Hogs (29 percent) and Wheat (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.7 percent)
Sugar (77.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (74.1 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (22.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (44.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (53.1 percent)
Live Cattle (78.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.6 percent)
Cotton (47.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.6 percent)
Wheat (31.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.8 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent), Lean Hogs (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Soybean Meal (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-26.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-18.3 percent)
Sugar (11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.5 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-11.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (1.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-9.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-2.6 percent)
Cotton (5.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.9 percent)
Cocoa (9.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.5 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.4 percent)