Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 5

16 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (11,414 contracts) with Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (6,583 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,612 contracts), Soybeans (-30,385 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle, Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (90 percent), Coffee (88 percent) and Corn (88 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (88.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (92.7 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (17 percent), Wheat (16 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (17.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (30.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-29.8 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (18.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 424,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 462,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.939.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.056.010.4
– Net Position:424,769-338,472-86,297
– Gross Longs:586,274796,993124,448
– Gross Shorts:161,5051,135,465210,745
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.017.62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-14.2-32.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.953.27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.551.37.0
– Net Position:-26,52619,2977,229
– Gross Longs:231,941538,04478,087
– Gross Shorts:258,467518,74770,858
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.195.829.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.918.63.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.855.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.28.2
– Net Position:6,78123,383-30,164
– Gross Longs:170,362505,03944,383
– Gross Shorts:163,581481,65674,547
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.254.533.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-18.0-10.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (23,817 contracts) with Wheat (23,756 contracts), Corn (18,506 contracts), Soybeans (5,815 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,428 contracts) and Lean Hogs (3,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-8,339 contracts), Coffee (-4,642 contracts), Sugar (-3,675 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,605 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,578 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee, Live Cattle & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (96 percent), Live Cattle (93 percent) and Corn (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent) and Sugar (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Wheat (24 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (92.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.4 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (95.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybeans (55.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.4 percent)
Live Cattle (93.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (78.9 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.4 percent)
Cocoa (46.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.8 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (34 percent) and Corn (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (21 percent), Soybean Meal (19 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-14 percent), Cotton (-12 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (30.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.3 percent)
Sugar (-29.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-31.2 percent)
Coffee (7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybeans (33.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-13.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-21.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.3 percent)
Cocoa (-1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.7 percent)
Wheat (15.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 462,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 443,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.038.35.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.156.910.2
– Net Position:462,381-374,564-87,817
– Gross Longs:626,001773,870118,268
– Gross Shorts:163,6201,148,434206,085
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.712.80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-27.5-35.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.453.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.750.87.0
– Net Position:-33,10929,7453,364
– Gross Longs:227,314544,96074,415
– Gross Shorts:260,423515,21571,051
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.098.624.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.826.2-4.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.931.55.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.871.13.3
– Net Position:71,878-76,7284,850
– Gross Longs:83,06660,96411,225
– Gross Shorts:11,188137,6926,375
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.53.898.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-9.028.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.455.74.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.356.28.5
– Net Position:37,166-4,926-32,240
– Gross Longs:182,119495,67243,118
– Gross Shorts:144,953500,59875,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.347.528.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-31.5-38.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 53,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.254.35.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.864.94.4
– Net Position:53,595-60,6797,084
– Gross Longs:121,346311,28332,530
– Gross Shorts:67,751371,96225,446
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.833.041.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-21.521.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.552.75.6
– Net Position:-691-15,51316,204
– Gross Longs:103,159297,38849,293
– Gross Shorts:103,850312,90133,089
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.171.628.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-16.4-21.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 116,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.628.27.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.552.013.4
– Net Position:116,439-91,888-24,551
– Gross Longs:199,414109,04027,075
– Gross Shorts:82,975200,92851,626
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.410.411.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-12.6-10.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.833.27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.854.69.0
– Net Position:69,445-64,565-4,880
– Gross Longs:129,010100,20422,404
– Gross Shorts:59,565164,76927,284
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.515.648.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.811.526.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -50,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.450.35.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.933.34.9
– Net Position:-50,76749,2141,553
– Gross Longs:64,897145,91215,822
– Gross Shorts:115,66496,69814,269
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.410.314.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.735.28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.267.43.9
– Net Position:35,390-41,3095,919
– Gross Longs:48,47345,21010,952
– Gross Shorts:13,08386,5195,033
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.151.662.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.0-6.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.533.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.720.16.8
– Net Position:-67,35563,6813,674
– Gross Longs:130,876159,16035,860
– Gross Shorts:198,23195,47932,186
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.772.076.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-17.17.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, Sugar & 5-Year lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 71,878 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,642 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.8 this week. The speculator position registered 302,508 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,099 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 13.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 116,439 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,605 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 30.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 462,381 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,506 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 11.8 this week.

The speculator position was -1,763 net contracts this week with a small increase of 22 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -50,767 net contracts this week with a drop of -8,339 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The speculator position was -33,109 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,927,666 net contracts this week with a drop of -151,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.8 this week. The speculator position was -58,614 net contracts this week with a rise of 7,990 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -49,090 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,059 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
01 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, Sugar top weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 13.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 76,520 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,229 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 96.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.6 this week. The speculator position registered 112,967 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 77,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 95.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 8.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 119,044 net contracts this week with an increase of 312 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 299,409 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,375 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The US Treasury Bond speculator level sits at a 93.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 26.1 this week.

The speculator position was 28,584 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,128 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -31.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -29,434 net contracts this week with a boost of 2,033 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.7 this week. The speculator position was -42,428 net contracts this week with a subtraction of -2,477 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Euro speculator level resides at a 3.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -66,604 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,118 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat


The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.3 this week. The speculator position was -91,111 net contracts this week with a drop by -18,102 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 8.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -47,031 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,192 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,952 contracts) with Soybeans (12,802 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,666 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,090 contracts), Coffee (2,229 contracts), Sugar (2,033 contracts) and Live Cattle (312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-18,102 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,915 contracts), Cotton (-2,477 contracts) and with Cocoa (-497 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (90 percent), Lean Hogs (79 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (83.9 percent)
Sugar (0.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.8 percent)
Soybeans (54.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (62.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.7 percent)
Live Cattle (95.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (78.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.9 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.2 percent)
Wheat (4.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.2 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (33 percent) and Corn (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (14 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Soybean Oil (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-21 percent), Cotton (-11 percent) and Wheat (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (28.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (-31.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-41.4 percent)
Coffee (13.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.8 percent)
Soybeans (33.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (8.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-21.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.6 percent)
Cotton (-10.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.5 percent)
Wheat (-9.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 443,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 392,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.239.46.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.857.410.4
– Net Position:443,875-355,959-87,916
– Gross Longs:617,299780,449117,958
– Gross Shorts:173,4241,136,408205,874
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.415.20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-24.6-44.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.054.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.051.56.6
– Net Position:-29,43425,7463,688
– Gross Longs:230,941541,54469,367
– Gross Shorts:260,375515,79865,679
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.797.524.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.428.5-10.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.129.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.870.74.0
– Net Position:76,520-80,7054,185
– Gross Longs:85,90257,11711,978
– Gross Shorts:9,382137,8227,793
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.081.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-14.39.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.255.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.555.48.9
– Net Position:31,3513,608-34,959
– Gross Longs:182,713482,19242,015
– Gross Shorts:151,362478,58476,974
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.049.621.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-30.1-50.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.454.55.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.964.14.5
– Net Position:48,167-53,8935,726
– Gross Longs:115,448308,19331,027
– Gross Shorts:67,281362,08625,301
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.836.336.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-9.517.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.550.58.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.749.35.5
– Net Position:-24,5086,91617,592
– Gross Longs:95,385292,58249,507
– Gross Shorts:119,893285,66631,915
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.480.534.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-5.8-26.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 119,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.727.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.351.413.9
– Net Position:119,044-92,602-26,442
– Gross Longs:202,150108,43627,836
– Gross Shorts:83,106201,03854,278
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.99.55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-5.6-12.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.433.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.354.69.2
– Net Position:66,061-61,847-4,214
– Gross Longs:123,796101,49323,441
– Gross Shorts:57,735163,34027,655
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.918.052.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.115.952.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.449.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.835.45.0
– Net Position:-42,42839,9292,499
– Gross Longs:64,766137,71416,275
– Gross Shorts:107,19497,78513,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.594.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.77.721.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -497 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.536.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.571.14.6
– Net Position:36,968-43,2976,329
– Gross Longs:49,95044,47112,017
– Gross Shorts:12,98287,7685,688
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.749.666.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.7-1.3-3.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -91,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.135.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.518.16.6
– Net Position:-91,11186,2894,822
– Gross Longs:133,872175,75437,566
– Gross Shorts:224,98389,46532,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.890.183.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.34.335.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
26 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, Live Cattle & Gold lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 74,291 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 1,649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.5 this week. The speculator position registered 118,732 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts in speculator bets.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gold speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 300,784 net contracts this week with a gain by 21,421 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 24,456 net contracts this week with a boost of 24,404 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 89.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,534 net contracts this week with a rise of 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -31,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -45,629 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.0 this week. The speculator position was -51,223 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -39,951 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,210 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.0 this week. The speculator position was -62,486 net contracts this week with a decline by -2,089 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,796,191 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -18,570 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
26 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (44,848 contracts) with Wheat (9,200 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,098 contracts), Soybeans (4,031 contracts), Coffee (1,649 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,428 contracts) and Cocoa (605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-45,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-6,566 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,553 contracts) and Cotton (-4,210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (98 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (84 percent), Lean Hogs (82 percent) and Soybean Oil (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (83.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.2 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.7 percent)
Coffee (98.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.7 percent)
Soybeans (50.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (62.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.1 percent)
Live Cattle (95.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (87.0 percent)
Cotton (4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.0 percent)
Cocoa (48.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.6 percent)
Wheat (19.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.9 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Corn (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (15 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Cotton (-14 percent) and Wheat (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.8 percent)
Sugar (-41.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.8 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 392,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.241.76.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.057.910.2
– Net Position:392,923-314,101-78,822
– Gross Longs:587,335810,136120,226
– Gross Shorts:194,4121,124,237199,048
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.920.83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.5-17.3-50.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -45,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.354.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.550.77.3
– Net Position:-31,46734,888-3,421
– Gross Longs:231,219538,36169,175
– Gross Shorts:262,686503,47372,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.015.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.440.7-28.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.671.53.7
– Net Position:74,291-78,5264,235
– Gross Longs:83,01156,21711,170
– Gross Shorts:8,720134,7436,935
– Long to Short Ratio:9.5 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.30.382.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-13.018.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.956.74.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.855.08.5
– Net Position:18,54914,875-33,424
– Gross Longs:187,255484,41739,381
– Gross Shorts:168,706469,54272,805
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.952.425.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.7-21.7-44.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.055.55.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.162.55.0
– Net Position:38,501-39,7321,231
– Gross Longs:123,527311,69829,376
– Gross Shorts:85,026351,43028,145
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.543.318.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.45.4-25.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.449.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.548.05.5
– Net Position:-28,5989,97418,624
– Gross Longs:99,189282,71050,002
– Gross Shorts:127,787272,73631,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.781.739.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.32.0-25.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 118,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,285 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.728.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.452.314.5
– Net Position:118,732-90,810-27,922
– Gross Longs:192,157107,10626,966
– Gross Shorts:73,425197,91654,888
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.611.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-15.6-10.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 69,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.732.97.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.653.99.4
– Net Position:69,976-63,497-6,479
– Gross Longs:126,35899,83122,147
– Gross Shorts:56,382163,32828,626
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.916.638.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.614.031.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.648.95.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.434.75.1
– Net Position:-39,95138,3351,616
– Gross Longs:66,257131,97315,453
– Gross Shorts:106,20893,63813,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.293.526.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.811.79.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.537.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.473.04.1
– Net Position:37,465-44,2436,778
– Gross Longs:50,40846,55211,924
– Gross Shorts:12,94390,7955,146
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.248.669.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-0.61.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.433.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.919.26.6
– Net Position:-73,00968,8654,144
– Gross Longs:138,911159,61835,248
– Gross Shorts:211,92090,75331,104
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.276.179.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.93.750.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
19 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Coffee, NZD & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

 

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 25.3 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 123,285 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,740 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.8 this week. The speculator position registered 72,642 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 8,508 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -0.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,183 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 414 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 87.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 76,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,797 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold


The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 86.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 279,363 net contracts this week with a rise of 24,452 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,089 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,535 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.1 this week. The speculator position was -60,397 net contracts this week with a move up by 3,727 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 6.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 14,162 net contracts this week with a drop of -35,665 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 7.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was -35,741 net contracts this week with a decline by -3,657 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 10.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,777,621 net contracts this week with a boost of 23,282 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
19 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Wagers led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (64,519 contracts) with Soybean Oil (28,603 contracts), Corn (28,262 contracts), Coffee (8,508 contracts), Live Cattle (4,740 contracts) and Lean Hogs (3,797 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-35,665 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,865 contracts), Cotton (-3,657 contracts), Wheat (-2,735 contracts) and with Cocoa (1,066 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (100 percent) and Coffee (97 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (87 percent), Corn (78 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (6 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Wheat (12 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (78.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (74.6 percent)
Sugar (6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.0 percent)
Coffee (96.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (50.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (44.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.7 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (87.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (84.0 percent)
Cotton (7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.5 percent)
Cocoa (47.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.5 percent)
Wheat (11.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.1 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (27 percent) and Corn (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (25 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Lean Hogs (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (26.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.3 percent)
Sugar (-26.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.3 percent)
Coffee (5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-6.3 percent)
Soybeans (26.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (4.0 percent)
Live Cattle (25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.6 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.2 percent)
Cocoa (-0.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (-16.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-21.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 348,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 319,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.043.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.158.610.4
– Net Position:348,075-272,419-75,656
– Gross Longs:534,428805,779116,368
– Gross Shorts:186,3531,078,198192,024
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.226.37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.8-22.6-53.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -35,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.154.16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.755.27.0
– Net Position:14,162-9,913-4,249
– Gross Longs:228,583534,96264,921
– Gross Shorts:214,421544,87569,170
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.493.614.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.128.3-31.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 72,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.130.65.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.471.33.7
– Net Position:72,642-76,4403,798
– Gross Longs:80,94457,47410,766
– Gross Shorts:8,302133,9146,968
– Long to Short Ratio:9.7 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.72.375.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-6.411.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,518 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.555.64.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.853.48.7
– Net Position:14,51818,411-32,929
– Gross Longs:186,047459,14238,496
– Gross Shorts:171,529440,73171,425
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.053.326.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.7-24.1-41.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 34,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.455.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.361.05.2
– Net Position:34,403-33,971-432
– Gross Longs:132,019310,20428,665
– Gross Shorts:97,616344,17529,097
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.346.112.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-0.8-22.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.550.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.948.05.6
– Net Position:-30,02610,88219,144
– Gross Longs:97,806278,71350,339
– Gross Shorts:127,832267,83131,195
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.182.041.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-0.1-16.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 123,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.927.17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.653.214.2
– Net Position:123,285-96,439-26,846
– Gross Longs:192,036100,39925,870
– Gross Shorts:68,751196,83852,716
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.04.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.3-28.7-8.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 76,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.232.77.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.755.79.8
– Net Position:76,542-69,200-7,342
– Gross Longs:129,74198,04121,949
– Gross Shorts:53,199167,24129,291
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.011.734.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.711.78.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.748.55.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.634.75.6
– Net Position:-35,74135,448293
– Gross Longs:63,438124,56314,607
– Gross Shorts:99,17989,11514,314
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.091.718.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.913.51.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.438.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.973.14.0
– Net Position:36,860-43,1016,241
– Gross Longs:49,21648,25011,182
– Gross Shorts:12,35691,3514,941
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.649.865.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.30.5-1.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,209 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.234.57.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.517.86.6
– Net Position:-82,20979,4852,724
– Gross Longs:138,772164,18233,946
– Gross Shorts:220,98184,69731,222
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.984.671.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.410.541.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
21 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (8,077 contracts) with Lean Hogs (1,888 contracts) and Coffee (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,144 contracts), Soybeans (-23,113 contracts), Wheat (-20,050 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,616 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,513 contracts), Cotton (-7,075 contracts), Corn (-2,575 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,696 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (98 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Corn (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (62.4 percent)
Sugar (25.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.7 percent)
Coffee (86.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (86.4 percent)
Soybeans (20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (64.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.4 percent)
Live Cattle (98.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (89.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (98.5 percent)
Cotton (13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.9 percent)
Cocoa (45.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.1 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (34 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-24 percent), Soybean Meal (-24 percent) and Cotton (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (-3.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (-0.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-23.1 percent)
Live Cattle (34.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.5 percent)
Cotton (-9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (-45.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-28.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 221,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.146.17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.456.610.7
– Net Position:221,848-170,678-51,170
– Gross Longs:454,635745,237121,259
– Gross Shorts:232,787915,915172,429
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.139.839.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-14.7-11.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.453.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.261.96.0
– Net Position:68,183-79,99811,815
– Gross Longs:221,468505,12668,565
– Gross Shorts:153,285585,12456,750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.573.535.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.59.6-30.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly edge higher of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.234.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.067.53.0
– Net Position:62,147-65,7003,553
– Gross Longs:74,22769,1459,539
– Gross Shorts:12,080134,8455,986
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.512.771.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.8-0.317.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -109,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.056.65.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.042.97.4
– Net Position:-109,329125,032-15,703
– Gross Longs:156,034518,26352,313
– Gross Shorts:265,363393,23168,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.779.671.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.28.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.152.85.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.258.95.3
– Net Position:33,350-34,5661,216
– Gross Longs:142,261299,58931,466
– Gross Shorts:108,911334,15530,250
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.745.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.625.5-32.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.445.58.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.542.25.3
– Net Position:-44,84421,47823,366
– Gross Longs:130,356290,50657,067
– Gross Shorts:175,200269,02833,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.086.260.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.323.8-4.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.128.67.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.553.713.5
– Net Position:110,778-87,943-22,835
– Gross Longs:175,651100,38924,537
– Gross Shorts:64,873188,33247,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.415.27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.5-39.62.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 93,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.330.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.254.810.0
– Net Position:93,410-80,545-12,865
– Gross Longs:154,060101,70420,534
– Gross Shorts:60,650182,24933,399
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.02.014.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-14.6-24.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.947.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.036.05.8
– Net Position:-26,60327,546-943
– Gross Longs:59,565113,85412,851
– Gross Shorts:86,16886,30813,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.186.810.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.59.5-7.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.938.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.371.24.2
– Net Position:35,281-42,0676,786
– Gross Longs:51,06449,03312,193
– Gross Shorts:15,78391,1005,407
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.950.970.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.41.7-2.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.639.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.420.97.6
– Net Position:-79,34080,945-1,605
– Gross Longs:126,968173,93432,189
– Gross Shorts:206,30892,98933,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.285.849.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.140.832.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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