Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 3

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (25,247 contracts) with Soybeans (19,074 contracts), Live Cattle (10,199 contracts), Soybean Oil (8,014 contracts), Cotton (7,870 contracts), Cocoa (3,679 contracts) and Coffee (3,647 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-9,805 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,200 contracts), Sugar (-3,316 contracts) and with Wheat (-1,871 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Soybean Meal (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and Soybean Oil (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.1 percent)
Coffee (87.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (35.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (17.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (74.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (64.0 percent)
Live Cattle (44.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (40.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (48.5 percent)
Cotton (14.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.6 percent)
Cocoa (43.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.8 percent)


Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (52 percent) and Soybeans (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (34 percent), Corn (20 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-34 percent), Sugar (-19 percent) and Coffee (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.9 percent)
Sugar (-19.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-32.7 percent)
Coffee (-12.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.8 percent)
Soybeans (34.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (52.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.7 percent)
Live Cattle (19.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-35.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-24.1 percent)
Cotton (-33.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.8 percent)
Cocoa (-1.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-6.1 percent)
Wheat (33.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.7 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.942.29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.336.311.7
– Net Position:-51,63290,934-39,302
– Gross Longs:337,903650,550141,411
– Gross Shorts:389,535559,616180,713
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.374.655.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.5-16.4-39.8

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.253.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.752.68.8
– Net Position:5,1058,283-13,388
– Gross Longs:203,331468,23263,624
– Gross Shorts:198,226459,94977,012
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.02.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.316.0-1.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 63,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.735.04.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.763.42.6
– Net Position:63,033-66,3723,339
– Gross Longs:81,14681,8739,381
– Gross Shorts:18,113148,2456,042
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.312.165.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.712.18.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.157.26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.451.79.2
– Net Position:-25,90844,728-18,820
– Gross Longs:129,688459,81754,827
– Gross Shorts:155,596415,08973,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.462.262.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.4-31.4-28.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.253.95.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.250.14.5
– Net Position:-28,26421,2647,000
– Gross Longs:112,590300,74031,971
– Gross Shorts:140,854279,47624,971
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.281.341.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-6.622.4

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 114,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.235.810.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.165.25.4
– Net Position:114,521-139,80325,282
– Gross Longs:167,296170,31050,943
– Gross Shorts:52,775310,11325,661
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.422.369.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:52.2-54.545.6

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.832.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.049.813.0
– Net Position:60,855-49,742-11,113
– Gross Longs:119,35695,95226,865
– Gross Shorts:58,501145,69437,978
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.661.930.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.2-16.8-21.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 13,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.839.37.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.842.79.4
– Net Position:13,662-9,301-4,361
– Gross Longs:81,944108,35021,540
– Gross Shorts:68,282117,65125,901
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.960.463.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.236.212.9

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.744.85.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.448.45.2
– Net Position:7,678-8,136458
– Gross Longs:70,382102,57312,272
– Gross Shorts:62,704110,70911,814
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.584.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.632.4-19.1

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,679 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.734.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.459.73.7
– Net Position:32,570-38,4255,855
– Gross Longs:48,41652,94111,504
– Gross Shorts:15,84691,3665,649
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.253.562.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.32.1-6.8

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.836.17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.231.19.2
– Net Position:-14,39321,208-6,815
– Gross Longs:127,585154,24732,381
– Gross Shorts:141,978133,03939,196
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.542.536.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-30.0-35.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Avocados are a ‘green gold’ export for Mexico, but growing them is harming forests and waters

BY Viridiana Hernández Fernández, University of Iowa 

Consumers’ love for avocados in the United States seems to know no bounds. From 2001 through 2020, consumption of this fruit laden with healthy fats tripled nationwide, rising to over 8 pounds per person yearly.

On average, 90% of those avocados are grown in the southwest Mexican state of Michoacán. As with other foods that have become trendy, such as acai berries, or widely used, such as palm oil, intensive avocado production is causing significant environmental damage.

My research on 20th-century Latin American environmental history examines how the transnational movement of people, foods and agricultural technologies has changed rural landscapes in Latin America. Currently, I’m writing a book on the development of a global avocado industry centered in Michoacán, the world’s largest avocado-growing region.

Map of Mexico with the state of Michoacán highlighted
Michoacán has a large Indigenous population and an economy based on agriculture, fishing and ranching.
CrazyPhunk/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

My research shows that raising avocados is economically beneficial in the short term for farmers, which in Latin America typically means medium-sized operators and agribusinesses. It also helps growers – people in rural areas who grow subsistence crops. Over time, though, every serving of avocado toast takes a toll on Michoacán’s land, forests and water supply. Rural growers, who lack the resources of large-scale farmers, feel those impacts most keenly.

The environmental effects of monoculture

Michoacán is the only place on earth that grows avocados year-round, thanks to its temperate climate, abundant rainfall and deep, porous volcanic soils that are rich in potassium, a vital plant nutrient. Even under favorable conditions, however, monocultures are never environmentally sustainable.

Introducing homogeneous, high-yielding plant varieties leads growers to abandon native crops. This makes the local ecosystem more vulnerable to threats such as pest infestations and reduces food options. It also erodes fertile soils and increases use of agrochemicals.

Monoculture also can drive deforestation. Mexican officials estimate that avocado production spurred the clearance of 2,900 to 24,700 acres of forests per year from 2010 through 2020. And it’s resource intensive: Avocado trees consume four to five times more water than Michoacán’s native pines, jeopardizing water resources for human consumption.

Avocados generate billions of dollars in export revenue for Mexico, but growing them imposes heavy costs at home.

Bred in California

Avocados have been a part of the Mexican diet since ancient Mesoamerica, but the Hass – the most popular variety worldwide today – was bred in modern California.

In the late 19th century, scientists from the U.S. Department of Agriculture embarked on a mission to collect and send home samples of food plants from around the world. The goal was to adapt and grow these plants in the United States, reducing the need for food imports.

Collecting plant genetic material from Latin America and imposing quarantines on avocados from Mexico starting in 1914 provided vital support for the development of a U.S. avocado industry. Farmers in California and Florida bred multiple strains from the material that USDA explorers collected. But U.S. consumers in the early 1900s weren’t familiar with this new food and hesitated to buy avocados of various textures, sizes and colors.

In response, farmers began selecting plants that grew avocados with small seeds, abundant flesh, hard skin, a creamy texture – and, most importantly, high yields. According to industry lore, Rudolph Hass, a postman and amateur horticulturalist in Southern California, stumbled on a new variety in the late 1920s while trying to propagate a variety called Rideout.

Within several decades, the Hass became the dominant avocado grown in California. By the 1950s, Mexican farmers who had connections with U.S. brokers had introduced the Hass south of the border.

How the Hass changed Michoacán

In the early 1960s, Michoacano cantaloupe farmers acquired lands to expand their production by growing avocados. Soon they focused on exclusively producing the Hass.

Many local Indigenous Purhépecha people, along with non-Indigenous campesinos, or country farmers, rented or sold land to the emerging avocado farmer class. In the 1980s, campesinos began to grow the fruit too. This was an expensive, long-term undertaking: It took four years for the trees to produce marketable avocados, but growers had to buy the trees, clear land for them and provide water, fertilizer and pesticides to help them grow.

Cantaloupe farmers could afford to invest capital for four years with no cash return. Campesinos had to rely on loans or remittances from family members abroad to develop avocado orchards.

As production expanded, agrochemical distributors, tree nurseries and packing houses sprouted on Purhépecha lands, clearing native pine trees and eroding the fertile soils. Mexico passed a law in 2003 that prohibited clearing forests for commercial agriculture, but by this time campesinos in Michoacán were already growing Hass avocados on a large scale.

The guacamole wars: NAFTA and avocados

After the adoption of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, California avocado farmers lobbied to maintain a quarantine that the USDA had imposed on Mexican avocado trees in 1914 because of an alleged plague. After three years of drought in California and testing of Michoacán orchards for pests, Mexico began shipping Hass avocados to the U.S. in 1997.

However, the only region the USDA certified to send avocados to the United States was Michoacán. Mexico had to allow the USDA to station agents in Michoacán to verify that certified orchards fulfilled agreed conditions to minimize the risks of plant diseases.

Companies such as Calavo, a California-based produce distributor, began to buy, pack and ship avocados grown in Michoacán to U.S. customers. In the process, they became major competitors for California avocado farmers.

Beyond monoculture

Today, avocados are one of the most-regulated exports from Mexico. However, these rules do little to address the industry’s environmental impacts.

Farmers in Michoacán continue to clear woodlands, spray agrochemicals, exhaust aquifers and buy Purhépecha communal property, converting it to smaller, privately owned lots. Rising profits have spurred violence and corruption as some local authorities collude with organized crime groups to expand the market.

In 2022, the U.S. briefly suspended Mexican avocado imports after a U.S. plant safety inspector in Michoacán received a threatening phone call.

Visiting Michoacán on Feb. 26, 2024, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar pledged that the U.S. would modify its protocol to block imports of avocados grown in illegal orchards. However, this won’t restore local ecosystems.

As I see it, expecting small-scale growers to protect the environment, after the ecology and economy of Michoacán has been radically altered in the name of free markets and development, puts responsibility in the wrong place. And boycotting Mexican avocados likely would simply lead growers to look for other markets.

Diversifying agriculture in the region and reforesting Michoacán could help to restore the Sierra Purhepecha’s ecology and protect the rural economy. One Indigenous community there is successfully growing peaches and lemons for the domestic market and avocados for the international market, while also planting native pines on their communal lands. This is a potential model for other farmers, although it would be hard to replicate without state support.

In my view, importing avocados from different areas of Mexico and the world to reduce the Hass market share may be the most effective environmental protection strategy. In 2022, the USDA approved imports of avocados grown in the Mexican state of Jalisco. This is a start, but Jalisco will follow Michoacán’s trajectory unless the U.S. finds more sources and promotes more avocado types.

As U.S. eaters’ tastes become more adventurous, sampling avocados of different sizes, shapes, textures, tastes and origins could become a decision that’s both epicurean and environmentally conscious.The Conversation

About the Author:

Viridiana Hernández Fernández, Assistant Professor of Latin American Environmental History, University of Iowa

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

FXTM’s Cotton: Set for a major rebound?

By ForexTime 

  • Cotton ↑ 7% month-to-date
  • Headed for first ↑ month since Feb
  • Over 20% away from 2024 high
  • H4 prices bullish but RSI overbought
  • Technical levels – 83.90, 81.50, 79.50

FXTM’s new Cotton commodity could be set for a major rebound after ending last week on a firmly positive note.

Prices have recently hit a fresh multi-week high at 81.50 cents as bulls and bears wait for a fresh directional spark.

Note: Cotton is priced per pound.

Before we take a deep dive into the fundamentals, did you know that…

  • Cotton is an ancient non-food crop
  • China is the biggest producer & consumer
  • Has been grown on the moon
  • Most banknotes are made using cotton
  • Hit an all-time high in 2011 at $2.27

 

What is Cotton?

Cotton is a soft and fluffy natural fiber made up from the seeds of a cotton plant.

It can be made into clothing, used for industrial products, and even fuel.

What does FXTM’s Cotton track

FXTM’s Cotton tracks the ICE Group’s Cotton No.2 futures, the benchmark for the global cotton trading community.

The lowdown

After trading within a narrow range for 16 months, cotton prices rallied in February 2024.

The commodity ended the month over 17% higher amid supply concerns in the United States.

However, prices later slipped in March with the selloff gaining momentum in April as slow demand and increased stocks dampened the market outlook.

The bigger picture

Due to conflicting fundamental forces, 2024 has been a rollercoaster year for cotton prices.

Still, prices seem to be stabilizing near one-month highs due to supply-related concerns and signs of strong demand from China.

Weather-related issues in Texas and flooding in Brazil are expected to affect the planting of cotton among other crops.

What does this mean?

Cotton prices may push higher if supply-related issues persist and global demand continues to improve.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. cotton demand is projected to increase in 2024/2025 but global production is also projected to rise 5% above the 2023/2024 estimate.

Technical outlook…

Prices are bullish on the D1/H4 timeframe with the upside gaining momentum above 79.50.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has touched 70 – indicating that prices are overbought on the H4 timeframe.

  • A solid breakout above 81.50 could encourage a move towards 83.90.
  • Should prices slip back under 79.50, this may open a path towards 77.50 and the 50 SMA.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (31,578 contracts) with Wheat (12,370 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,815 contracts), Cocoa (1,396 contracts), Live Cattle (1,184 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,021 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-6,315 contracts), Soybeans (-5,927 contracts), Coffee (-5,666 contracts), Sugar (-2,670 contracts) and with Cotton (-1,737 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (82 percent) and Wheat (64 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Oil (4 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.0 percent)
Coffee (81.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (32.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.7 percent)
Live Cattle (27.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.2 percent)
Cotton (13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.8 percent)
Cocoa (38.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.1 percent)
Wheat (63.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (55.2 percent)


Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (50 percent) and Wheat (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (23 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-62 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-33 percent), Soybean Oil (-29 percent) and Live Cattle (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.7 percent)
Sugar (-33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-26.0 percent)
Coffee (-10.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.7 percent)
Soybeans (21.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (49.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-16.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.0 percent)
Cotton (-62.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-60.6 percent)
Cocoa (-5.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.0 percent)
Wheat (38.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 31,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.341.89.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.339.111.8
– Net Position:22440,405-40,629
– Gross Longs:337,217632,478138,445
– Gross Shorts:336,993592,073179,074
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.967.953.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.1-20.2-38.9

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.353.07.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.254.49.0
– Net Position:25,891-11,459-14,432
– Gross Longs:209,791439,62360,523
– Gross Shorts:183,900451,08274,955
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.135.1-39.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.636.34.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.063.03.0
– Net Position:57,211-59,6942,483
– Gross Longs:77,22881,0229,092
– Gross Shorts:20,017140,7166,609
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.718.651.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.48.3

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.959.37.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.748.59.3
– Net Position:-65,97581,604-15,629
– Gross Longs:112,139446,69654,657
– Gross Shorts:178,114365,09270,286
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.070.870.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-20.4-11.6

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -50,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.153.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.544.55.2
– Net Position:-50,53247,1813,351
– Gross Longs:109,303288,45031,814
– Gross Shorts:159,835241,26928,463
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.695.527.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.626.5-6.8

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 82,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.738.411.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.762.15.3
– Net Position:82,785-109,37026,585
– Gross Longs:150,611176,88550,993
– Gross Shorts:67,826286,25524,408
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.434.475.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.7-52.854.6

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.935.010.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.448.912.6
– Net Position:44,659-37,742-6,917
– Gross Longs:100,00294,85727,263
– Gross Shorts:55,343132,59934,180
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.176.652.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.618.9-0.4

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.736.57.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.146.09.8
– Net Position:32,041-26,444-5,597
– Gross Longs:93,393101,19121,492
– Gross Shorts:61,352127,63527,089
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.044.858.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.19.05.3

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.844.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.945.96.7
– Net Position:6,399-4,249-2,150
– Gross Longs:68,15997,25912,682
– Gross Shorts:61,760101,50814,832
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.587.53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-62.062.9-63.3

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.035.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.958.63.6
– Net Position:27,958-33,5685,610
– Gross Longs:45,31652,23110,914
– Gross Shorts:17,35885,7995,304
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.558.460.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.86.4-5.3

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.635.87.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.932.29.3
– Net Position:-5,41514,159-8,744
– Gross Longs:132,484141,47528,160
– Gross Shorts:137,899127,31636,904
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.737.328.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.1-33.8-40.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

FXTM’s Soybean: On breakout watch

By ForexTime 

  • Soybean ↑ 5% month-to-date
  • Influenced by various fundamentals
  • Trapped in range on W1 timeframe
  • Breakout on the horizon?
  • Key levels at 1211, 1188, 1170

After bouncing within a weekly range since mid-January, FXTM’s new Soybean commodity could be on the brink of a major breakout!

Prices are flirting around the 1200 weekly resistance level as bulls and bears wait for a fresh directional catalyst.

Note: Soybean is priced per bushel. One bushel is equivalent to 60 pounds.

Before we break down the fundamentals, here are some fun facts about soybean:

  • Ancient crop that originates from China
  • More than 2500 varieties
  • Brazil is the biggest producer & exporter
  • China is the biggest importer
  • Gained over 5% month-to-date

What is Soybean?

Soybeans are simply the edible beans of the soya plant.

They come in many different shapes and sizes boasting various uses.

Humans and animals can consume this bean, also used for industrial and consumer products!

Note: Soya oil is extracted from Soybean. Soybean meal is the by-product of the extraction process.

Both can be traded along with Soybean on the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade).

What does FXTM’s Soybean track?

FXTM’s Soybean tracks the CME Group’s Soybean futures, providing access to one of the world’s most widely grown crops.

The lowdown…

Soybean prices have been shaky in 2024, shedding almost 7% year-to-date.

A combination of rising global stockpiles and uncertainty over China’s demand has pressured the commodity.

Back in March, reports showed that China imported 13.04 million metric tons of soybeans for the first two months of 2024 – the lowest in 5 years.

Considering how China accounts for roughly 60% of global imports, it plays a key role in Soybeans outlook.

The bigger picture…

Brazil, the United States, and Argentina account for roughly 80% of total Soybean production.

Developments in these regions along with demand from China are likely to heavily influence the outlook for 2024.

There have been reports of severe weather conditions in Brazil threatening supplies of key agricultural commodities including soybeans. These concerns were reflected in the latest USDA report published last Friday which lowered estimates for Brazil’s production.

However, U.S. farmers are expected to produce near-record amounts of Soybean this year – adding to the rising global inventories.

What does this mean?

The various fundamental forces pulling and tugging at Soybeans could translate to fresh volatility.

Where there is volatility, this presents fresh opportunity.

Technical outlook…

Soybean prices remain in a wide range on the weekly charts with key support found around 1130 and resistance at 1200.

Zooming into the H1 timeframe, another range is in play with support at 1188 and resistance at 1211. Prices are trading below the 100 and 50 SMA and currently testing the 200 SMA.

  • A solid H1 close below 1188 could inspire a decline towards 1170.

  • Should prices push back above the 50 SMA, this could open a path back to 1211.

  • A break above 1211 may see prices test 1220 and 1235.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (112,070 contracts) with Soybeans (102,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (41,851 contracts), Wheat (6,671 contracts) and Soybean Oil (4,889 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-13,582 contracts), Sugar (-11,744 contracts), Cotton (-11,086 contracts), Coffee (-5,713 contracts), Live Cattle (-328 contracts) and with Cocoa (-590 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Lean Hogs (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (58 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Cotton (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.2 percent)
Coffee (87.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybeans (32.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (40.6 percent)
Live Cattle (25.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.3 percent)
Cotton (14.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.2 percent)
Cocoa (37.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.7 percent)
Wheat (55.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.5 percent)


Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (43 percent) and Wheat (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (22 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Coffee (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-61 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-26 percent), Sugar (-26 percent) and Live Cattle (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.1 percent)
Sugar (-26.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (6.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (42.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-32.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (3.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.0 percent)
Cotton (-60.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.5 percent)
Cocoa (-10.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-18.8 percent)
Wheat (30.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.9 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.442.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.638.811.3
– Net Position:-31,35456,642-25,288
– Gross Longs:311,911621,487139,562
– Gross Shorts:343,265564,845164,850
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.970.074.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.7-18.3-11.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.253.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.856.18.4
– Net Position:28,561-25,176-3,385
– Gross Longs:200,063438,21265,992
– Gross Shorts:171,502463,38869,377
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.9100.012.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.027.9-28.3

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.435.24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.22.7
– Net Position:62,877-66,0393,162
– Gross Longs:85,05479,8969,211
– Gross Shorts:22,177145,9356,049
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.212.461.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-8.121.4

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.657.46.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.747.48.8
– Net Position:-60,04874,323-14,275
– Gross Longs:123,324426,27751,042
– Gross Shorts:183,372351,95465,317
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.269.173.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-21.4-4.0

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.753.35.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.044.15.3
– Net Position:-51,55350,3511,202
– Gross Longs:113,697293,06630,181
– Gross Shorts:165,250242,71528,979
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.097.318.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.124.4-7.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.640.110.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.461.05.5
– Net Position:73,970-95,40521,435
– Gross Longs:139,373182,60546,648
– Gross Shorts:65,403278,01025,213
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.739.952.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.5-43.021.3

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.536.19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.649.811.9
– Net Position:43,475-37,324-6,151
– Gross Longs:96,84498,46926,308
– Gross Shorts:53,369135,79332,459
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.877.157.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.326.59.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.535.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.346.49.8
– Net Position:38,356-31,763-6,593
– Gross Longs:100,612103,75922,074
– Gross Shorts:62,256135,52228,667
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.240.053.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0-2.6-3.6

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.244.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.448.06.0
– Net Position:8,136-7,960-176
– Gross Longs:66,14193,74112,568
– Gross Shorts:58,005101,70112,744
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.885.015.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-60.660.5-52.8

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.235.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.257.13.9
– Net Position:26,562-32,4955,933
– Gross Longs:44,57951,82911,641
– Gross Shorts:18,01784,3245,708
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.159.562.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.09.9-1.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.236.66.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.029.39.3
– Net Position:-17,78527,005-9,220
– Gross Longs:122,686135,19325,281
– Gross Shorts:140,471108,18834,501
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.246.826.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.5-25.7-40.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

FXTM’s Wheat: Touches fresh 2024 high!

By ForexTime

  • Wheat kisses new 2024 high
  • Watch out for WASDE report on Friday
  • Bulls back in control on D1 charts
  • Key levels at 638, 629 and 615

FXTM’s new Wheat commodity is in the spotlight after hitting a fresh 2024 high on Tuesday!

Prices hit the 638 level this morning as fundamentals powered bulls.

Note: Wheat is priced per bushel. One bushel is equivalent to 60 pounds.

The soft commodity could see more action this week ahead of the highly anticipated WASDE report.

Note: WASDE is the abbreviation for The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

This report is published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

But before we take a deep dive into the world of Wheat, here are the basics:

What is Wheat?

Wheat is a widely cultivated grain that is consumed across the world.

It is the main ingredient for many foods, ranging from bread, biscuits, cereals, and cakes among many other foods.

What does FXTM’s Wheat track

FXTM’s Wheat tracks the Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) futures.

This is the most actively traded wheat contract in the US and the global standard wheat benchmark in the world.

Some fun facts:

  • One of the oldest crops in the world
  • 6 classes of wheat grown across the US
  • China is the largest wheat producer
  • Russia is the biggest wheat exporter
  • Gained over 8% month-to-date

The lowdown…

Wheat prices have been appreciating in recent weeks.

The soft commodity has gained over 13% since the start of April due to worries about dry weather in key exporting countries.

A lack of rain in Russia, the world’s largest wheat supplier has fuelled concerns over global production.

The bigger picture

The world’s Wheat stockpiles have contracted over the past four years.

Russia’s war in Ukraine along with other geopolitical developments and negative weather conditions in key exporting regions have hit global wheat stocks.

This has fuelled concerns over a tightening between the supply and demand of wheat.

Why this is an important week

All eyes will be on the USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report due on Friday.

This may offer investors fresh insight into the production and stocks of key grain for 2024.

Should the report show a decline in wheat production, this could push prices higher.

Technical outlook…

Bulls have made their presence known on the daily charts, with prices flirting around the 2024 high.

Still, prices may experience a technical throwback before the uptrend resumes.

Looking at the H1 charts, prices are under pressure with 629 acting as a resistance level.

  • Sustained weakness below this point may open a path towards 615, 50 SMA, and 595.
  • Should prices push back above 629, this could trigger a move back towards 638 and the next psychological level at 650.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,935 contracts) with Soybean Meal (17,676 contracts) and Corn (16,744 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-25,101 contracts), Cotton (-9,637 contracts), Soybeans (-7,773 contracts), Sugar (-4,796 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,678 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,750 contracts), Coffee (-3,324 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,432 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Lean Hogs (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Sugar (5 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and the Corn (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (13.5 percent)
Sugar (5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.0 percent)
Soybeans (7.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (40.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (30.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.2 percent)
Cotton (23.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.4 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.1 percent)
Wheat (50.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.4 percent)


Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (32 percent) and Wheat (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (18 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and Corn (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-32 percent) and Soybean Oil (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.1 percent)
Soybeans (1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-32.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (20.2 percent)
Cotton (-54.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-51.7 percent)
Cocoa (-18.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (21.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.2 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -143,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.044.09.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.132.910.7
– Net Position:-143,424157,105-13,681
– Gross Longs:284,015624,235138,688
– Gross Shorts:427,439467,130152,369
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.683.489.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-3.5-7.6

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.955.27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.158.88.9
– Net Position:40,305-29,820-10,485
– Gross Longs:199,571460,09663,606
– Gross Shorts:159,266489,91674,091
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.2100.02.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.520.8-21.8

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.534.83.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.465.42.0
– Net Position:68,590-72,1563,566
– Gross Longs:93,00681,9418,361
– Gross Shorts:24,416154,0974,795
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.76.562.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-20.029.9

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -162,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.761.97.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.238.68.1
– Net Position:-162,343168,676-6,333
– Gross Longs:92,100447,80552,018
– Gross Shorts:254,443279,12958,351
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.991.493.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-2.717.4

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.952.75.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.142.75.5
– Net Position:-56,44255,3561,086
– Gross Longs:109,597290,37131,192
– Gross Shorts:166,039235,01530,106
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.018.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.221.3-10.6

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.643.49.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.354.55.9
– Net Position:32,119-49,10816,989
– Gross Longs:130,740191,67343,016
– Gross Shorts:98,621240,78126,027
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.658.332.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.9-31.57.5

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.135.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.249.211.6
– Net Position:43,803-38,088-5,715
– Gross Longs:99,66597,72926,257
– Gross Shorts:55,862135,81731,972
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.276.259.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.333.812.2

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.934.17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.648.610.4
– Net Position:51,938-43,257-8,681
– Gross Longs:116,668102,25922,574
– Gross Shorts:64,730145,51631,255
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.329.644.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.0-12.8-18.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.743.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.352.86.5
– Net Position:19,222-18,831-391
– Gross Longs:71,06589,33612,824
– Gross Shorts:51,843108,16713,215
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.277.613.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-54.555.4-56.9

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.933.67.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.054.84.1
– Net Position:27,152-32,1224,970
– Gross Longs:46,93151,14611,182
– Gross Shorts:19,77983,2686,212
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.759.854.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.819.3-6.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.336.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.127.69.6
– Net Position:-24,45632,562-8,106
– Gross Longs:120,889132,76426,535
– Gross Shorts:145,345100,20234,641
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.551.030.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-18.8-27.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (44,689 contracts) with Soybean Meal (27,275 contracts), Wheat (19,506 contracts), Soybeans (17,323 contracts), Live Cattle (4,542 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,205 contracts), also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-23,470 contracts), Sugar (-17,463 contracts), Coffee (-4,157 contracts), Cocoa (-4,251 contracts) and Lean Hogs (125 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (96 percent) and Lean Hogs (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Sugar (7 percent), Soybeans (10 percent), Soybean Oil (11 percent) and the Corn (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (13.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (7.6 percent)
Sugar (6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (96.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybeans (9.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (11.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (22.1 percent)
Live Cattle (30.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (76.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.1 percent)
Cotton (30.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (48.1 percent)
Cocoa (40.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.5 percent)
Wheat (37.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.8 percent)


Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (29 percent) and Lean Hogs (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (15 percent), Wheat (7 percent) and Soybeans (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-27 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Sugar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.2 percent)
Sugar (-14.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.0 percent)
Coffee (15.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (19.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (18.6 percent)
Cotton (-51.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-36.7 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.7 percent)
Wheat (7.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.6 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -160,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 44,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.144.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.733.310.7
– Net Position:-160,168172,388-12,220
– Gross Longs:288,529676,526149,210
– Gross Shorts:448,697504,138161,430
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.285.891.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.6-3.4-2.9

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.954.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.459.48.7
– Net Position:45,101-39,150-5,951
– Gross Longs:197,297451,98066,162
– Gross Shorts:152,196491,13072,113
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.997.48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.415.4-13.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 71,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.534.93.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.266.62.1
– Net Position:71,914-75,2153,301
– Gross Longs:93,73682,8768,334
– Gross Shorts:21,822158,0915,033
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.03.558.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.1-16.419.9

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -154,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,323 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.858.96.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.839.37.4
– Net Position:-154,570159,322-4,752
– Gross Longs:96,430479,37355,609
– Gross Shorts:251,000320,05160,361
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.689.397.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-7.115.7

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.351.35.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.845.94.9
– Net Position:-31,34131,005336
– Gross Longs:115,457291,90528,361
– Gross Shorts:146,798260,90028,025
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.289.715.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.80.3-6.5

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.544.79.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.451.46.1
– Net Position:14,443-31,56017,117
– Gross Longs:120,442211,55645,894
– Gross Shorts:105,999243,11628,777
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.365.232.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.3-28.63.6

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.535.49.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.150.012.2
– Net Position:47,553-39,851-7,702
– Gross Longs:99,62196,67625,617
– Gross Shorts:52,068136,52733,319
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.274.048.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.332.7-7.9

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.832.97.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.948.610.6
– Net Position:56,616-47,302-9,314
– Gross Longs:122,47498,81222,604
– Gross Shorts:65,858146,11431,918
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.226.041.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.2-17.9-21.9

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.641.56.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.556.85.4
– Net Position:28,859-31,0882,229
– Gross Longs:74,76584,77413,337
– Gross Shorts:45,906115,86211,108
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.469.329.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-51.751.4-43.3

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.832.88.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.555.94.3
– Net Position:29,584-35,4035,819
– Gross Longs:51,68550,13712,440
– Gross Shorts:22,10185,5406,621
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.156.561.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.515.74.9

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -43,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.936.18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.524.08.6
– Net Position:-43,39145,239-1,848
– Gross Longs:123,697135,43930,321
– Gross Shorts:167,08890,20032,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.460.458.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.2-7.80.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Robusta Coffee: hovers near record highs!

By ForexTime 

  • FXTM launches 10 new commodities
  • Robusta Coffee near all-time high
  • 2nd biggest gainer YTD in FXTM’s commodity universe
  • Prices over 35% since start of 2024
  • Key levels of interest at $4040, $4130 and $4280

FXTM’s new Robusta Coffee commodity is flirting near all-time highs!

Prices rallied to fresh records last week as fundamentals fuelled concerns over tight global supplies.

Note: Prices are trading roughly 4% away from all-time highs.

Before we take a deep dive into the world of Robusta coffee, here are the basics:

What is Robusta Coffee?

Robusta coffee bean is often used for expresso-based drinks and accounts for roughly 40% of the world’s coffee production.

What does FXTM’s Robusta Coffee track?

FXTM’s Robusta Coffee tracks the ICE US Robusta Coffee futures, the world benchmark for producers of Robusta coffee.

Coffee of this variety is grown mainly in Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, Uganda and India.

The lowdown…

Robusta coffee prices have been on a tear!

The commodity has gained over 35% since the start of 2024 thanks to fundamental forces.

Negative factors in the form of severe weather, aging trees and freight disruptions continue to fuel fears about a global shortage of this coffee variety.

This in turn has sparked panic buying by roasters, further fuelling Robusta’s upside gains.

The bigger picture

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta, accounting for roughly 35% of global output.

Heatwaves and ageing trees are expected to hit crop yields, with concerns rising over possible water shortages for irrigation hurting output of the next season.

Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of Robusta is also facing its trials. Adverse weather conditions are also threatening output, for the country that produces around 28% of global output.

Essentially, there are concerns over the amount of Robusta left in Brazil as the 2024 harvest approaches.

What does this mean?

A combination of negative factors continues to impact output from the world’s two largest producers of Robusta coffee.

This development could mean more gains for the commodity which is trading near all-time highs.

And…the technicals

Prices seem to be in a range on the H1 charts with support around $4130 and resistance at $4280.

Although the path of least resistance points north, a move lower could be on the cards before bulls jump back into the scene.

Potential support levels can be found at $4130, $4040 and $3980.


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com