By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,873 contracts) with Live Cattle (2,639 contracts) and Wheat (1,681 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-60,726 contracts), Sugar (-23,347 contracts), Soybean Oil (-19,146 contracts), Soybeans (-12,614 contracts), Coffee (-5,498 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,366 contracts), Cotton (-2,876 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,642 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
The Soft Commodities Price Performance last 5 days:
– Coffee was the leader with a gain of over 5%.
– Live cattle and wheat rose by over 3%.
– Cotton rose by over 2%.
– Lean hogs, soybeans, and soybean oil all increased by 1% or more.
– On the downside, soybean meal and sugar fell by over 1 percent, while cocoa fell by 4%.
Soft Commodities Data:
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (80 percent) and Lean Hogs (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (66 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Sugar (9 percent), Wheat (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.4 percent)
Sugar (9.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.8 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (65.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (69.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (65.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (75.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (18.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (29.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.5 percent)
Wheat (15.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.0 percent)
Lean Hogs & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (27 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent) and Cocoa (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.
Corn (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-12 percent), Soybean Oil (-10 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-41.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-34.6 percent)
Sugar (-11.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-10.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-10.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.4 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cocoa (4.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)
Individual Soft Commodities Markets:
CORN Futures:
The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -60,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,333 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.0 | 47.2 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.9 | 40.9 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | -81,059 | 104,725 | -23,666 |
| – Gross Longs: | 317,410 | 788,104 | 143,729 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 398,469 | 683,379 | 167,395 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.2 | 73.1 | 79.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -41.0 | 40.3 | 40.5 |
SUGAR Futures:
The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,503 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.4 | 50.7 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.8 | 49.5 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | -3,844 | 10,707 | -6,863 |
| – Gross Longs: | 214,220 | 445,078 | 62,137 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 218,064 | 434,371 | 69,000 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.4 | 93.5 | 11.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.9 | 11.7 | -8.4 |
COFFEE Futures:
The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,515 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.2 | 42.0 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.1 | 65.4 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 35,017 | -37,065 | 2,048 |
| – Gross Longs: | 47,810 | 66,385 | 8,810 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,793 | 103,450 | 6,762 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.7 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.8 | 41.6 | 52.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.8 | 6.0 | -3.9 |
SOYBEANS Futures:
The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,561 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.9 | 49.4 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.1 | 54.4 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | 59,947 | -44,377 | -15,570 |
| – Gross Longs: | 191,916 | 432,650 | 48,642 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 131,969 | 477,027 | 64,212 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.9 | 32.1 | 71.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.1 | -3.5 | 22.6 |
SOYBEAN OIL Futures:
The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,085 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.1 | 48.6 | 5.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.1 | 56.6 | 4.4 |
| – Net Position: | 41,939 | -47,789 | 5,850 |
| – Gross Longs: | 131,752 | 289,547 | 31,814 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 89,813 | 337,336 | 25,964 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.0 | 37.3 | 49.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.2 | 9.8 | -3.4 |
SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:
The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,153 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.5 | 47.9 | 9.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.5 | 42.9 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | -54,519 | 30,447 | 24,072 |
| – Gross Longs: | 124,108 | 290,014 | 56,843 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 178,627 | 259,567 | 32,771 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.0 | 89.8 | 78.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.7 | 6.7 | 36.9 |
LIVE CATTLE Futures:
The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,644 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.2 | 28.5 | 7.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 48.7 | 12.8 |
| – Net Position: | 103,283 | -83,165 | -20,118 |
| – Gross Longs: | 202,063 | 116,851 | 32,540 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 98,780 | 200,016 | 52,658 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.3 | 21.0 | 26.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.1 | -5.8 | 1.6 |
LEAN HOGS Futures:
The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,703 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.1 | 28.7 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.0 | 46.6 | 8.3 |
| – Net Position: | 66,576 | -62,402 | -4,174 |
| – Gross Longs: | 139,541 | 99,654 | 24,579 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,965 | 162,056 | 28,753 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.3 | 17.5 | 52.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.2 | -27.9 | -15.0 |
COTTON Futures:
The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,364 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.4 | 48.8 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 39.9 | 34.8 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | -32,240 | 33,480 | -1,240 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,272 | 116,837 | 12,169 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 95,512 | 83,357 | 13,409 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.2 | 83.9 | 13.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.4 | 3.4 | 9.6 |
COCOA Futures:
The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,112 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.5 | 35.9 | 11.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.1 | 61.4 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 19,470 | -25,602 | 6,132 |
| – Gross Longs: | 31,567 | 35,938 | 11,764 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,097 | 61,540 | 5,632 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.8 | 67.8 | 83.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.0 | -6.8 | 30.1 |
WHEAT Futures:
The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -97,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,755 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.8 | 38.8 | 7.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.4 | 18.5 | 7.5 |
| – Net Position: | -97,074 | 95,778 | 1,296 |
| – Gross Longs: | 112,261 | 182,990 | 36,752 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 209,335 | 87,212 | 35,456 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.2 | 87.2 | 63.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.2 | 3.9 | -10.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
