Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 2

28 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (43,133 contracts) with Soybeans (41,207 contracts), Soybean Oil (27,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (19,591 contracts), Lean Hogs (11,770 contracts), Cotton (9,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,609 contracts), Cocoa (2,261 contracts), Wheat (2,099 contracts) and Corn (2,073 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Coffee (-1,609 contracts) which took a breather after hitting a nine-week high in speculator positioning last week.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Wheat (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (53 percent), Soybean Oil (52 percent) and Cocoa (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Live Cattle (18 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (25 percent) and the Corn (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.4 percent)
Sugar (42.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybeans (24.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (14.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (53.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (17.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (11.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (40.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.9 percent)
Cotton (17.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.8 percent)
Cocoa (46.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (61.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (59.9 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (37 percent) and Lean Hogs (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (29 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-0.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only negative trender.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (28.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.4 percent)
Coffee (9.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (37.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (31.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.6 percent)
Cotton (15.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.3 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.7 percent)
Wheat (19.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -64,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.243.69.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.636.611.9
– Net Position:-64,222102,193-37,971
– Gross Longs:326,166639,476137,018
– Gross Shorts:390,388537,283174,989
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.776.157.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-10.1-18.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 115,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 43,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.453.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.270.66.4
– Net Position:115,383-140,56325,180
– Gross Longs:197,713431,72476,902
– Gross Shorts:82,330572,28751,722
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.156.152.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.5-30.934.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 68,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.337.84.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.572.82.4
– Net Position:68,519-73,1784,659
– Gross Longs:82,10178,9429,615
– Gross Shorts:13,582152,1204,956
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.75.588.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-10.620.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -93,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.961.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.847.57.7
– Net Position:-93,431115,399-21,968
– Gross Longs:118,946522,61044,414
– Gross Shorts:212,377407,21166,382
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.577.355.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-16.3-17.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.449.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.053.84.7
– Net Position:18,398-22,4164,018
– Gross Longs:142,191267,03029,483
– Gross Shorts:123,793289,44625,465
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.551.829.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.1-34.58.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.844.19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.960.54.9
– Net Position:62,879-86,39723,518
– Gross Longs:135,949232,53349,305
– Gross Shorts:73,070318,93025,787
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.243.561.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-23.323.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.135.98.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.642.812.8
– Net Position:36,107-21,714-14,393
– Gross Longs:110,464112,85225,895
– Gross Shorts:74,357134,56640,288
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.995.513.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.13.1-12.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.036.57.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.938.39.0
– Net Position:8,460-4,952-3,508
– Gross Longs:104,863100,86121,438
– Gross Shorts:96,403105,81324,946
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.757.067.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.9-37.8-1.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.547.66.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.641.35.2
– Net Position:-16,38814,6001,788
– Gross Longs:58,681109,72813,821
– Gross Shorts:75,06995,12812,033
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.881.227.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.1-15.214.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.034.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.663.03.1
– Net Position:36,014-42,2106,196
– Gross Longs:53,11550,85410,811
– Gross Shorts:17,10193,0644,615
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.749.765.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-6.56.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.735.78.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.130.910.0
– Net Position:-12,09017,154-5,064
– Gross Longs:121,819128,93531,023
– Gross Shorts:133,909111,78136,087
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.438.131.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-20.0-2.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

 

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (19,749 contracts) with Soybeans (9,593 contracts), Sugar (8,847 contracts), Coffee (6,681 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,390 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,171 contracts), Wheat (2,114 contracts) and Cocoa (1,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-18,535 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-4,028 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,551 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (94 percent) and Wheat (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Live Cattle (12 percent), Cotton (12 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (27.8 percent)
Sugar (26.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (94.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.7 percent)
Soybeans (14.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (12.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (38.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.1 percent)
Cotton (11.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.8 percent)
Wheat (59.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (58.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (17 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Corn (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.0 percent)
Sugar (16.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (22.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-29.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.4 percent)
Cotton (9.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (2.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.7 percent)
Wheat (18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -66,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.843.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.436.512.2
– Net Position:-66,295104,089-37,794
– Gross Longs:337,834623,438135,315
– Gross Shorts:404,129519,349173,109
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.476.357.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-9.2-21.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.154.28.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.564.68.0
– Net Position:72,250-79,0586,808
– Gross Longs:174,439409,67067,622
– Gross Shorts:102,189488,72860,814
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.973.728.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.4-16.916.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.536.94.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.572.62.5
– Net Position:70,128-73,5223,394
– Gross Longs:83,44876,1248,553
– Gross Shorts:13,320149,6465,159
– Long to Short Ratio:6.3 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.25.269.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.6-11.412.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -134,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.262.25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.143.87.5
– Net Position:-134,638155,638-21,000
– Gross Longs:111,373526,04742,565
– Gross Shorts:246,011370,40963,565
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.887.257.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.8-4.3-18.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.650.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.248.84.9
– Net Position:-8,8976,6682,229
– Gross Longs:141,892277,77629,225
– Gross Shorts:150,789271,10826,996
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.666.222.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-19.1-6.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.847.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.559.15.4
– Net Position:43,288-61,67918,391
– Gross Longs:123,866246,50046,358
– Gross Shorts:80,578308,17927,967
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.253.338.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.1-0.10.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.536.29.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.242.313.4
– Net Position:30,498-17,976-12,522
– Gross Longs:96,606107,83127,425
– Gross Shorts:66,108125,80739,947
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.8100.023.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.918.9-4.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.638.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.935.89.4
– Net Position:-3,3106,745-3,435
– Gross Longs:93,35898,06520,404
– Gross Shorts:96,66891,32023,839
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.969.767.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.6-20.21.6

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.247.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.437.25.3
– Net Position:-26,36224,8541,508
– Gross Longs:59,144112,31213,978
– Gross Shorts:85,50687,45812,470
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.886.825.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-10.824.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.135.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.662.63.0
– Net Position:33,753-39,5805,827
– Gross Longs:51,81550,20210,154
– Gross Shorts:18,06289,7824,327
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.452.361.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.7-2.5-1.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.435.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.429.710.1
– Net Position:-14,18920,379-6,190
– Gross Longs:124,164124,60929,368
– Gross Shorts:138,353104,23035,558
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.940.525.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-20.22.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
17 Sep

America’s dairy farms are disappearing, down 95% since the 1970s − milk price rules are one reason why

By Elizabeth Eckelkamp, University of Tennessee 

Milton Orr looked across the rolling hills in northeast Tennessee. “I remember when we had over 1,000 dairy farms in this county. Now we have less than 40,” Orr, an agriculture adviser for Greene County, Tennessee, told me with a tinge of sadness.

That was six years ago. Today, only 14 dairy farms remain in Greene County, and there are only 125 dairy farms in all of Tennessee. Across the country, the dairy industry is seeing the same trend: In 1970, over 648,000 U.S. dairy farms milked cattle. By 2022, only 24,470 dairy farms were in operation.

While the number of dairy farms has fallen, the average herd size – the number of cows per farm – has been rising. Today, more than 60% of all milk production occurs on farms with more than 2,500 cows.

A chart shows number of farms falling since 1970s and cows per farm rising in an inverse fashion.
Dairy farm numbers have fallen over the past few decades, but larger farms have kept the overall number of cows fairly steady.
USDA

This massive consolidation in dairy farming has an impact on rural communities. It also makes it more difficult for consumers to know where their food comes from and how it’s produced.

As a dairy specialist at the University of Tennessee, I’m constantly asked: Why are dairies going out of business? Well, like our friends’ Facebook relationship status, it’s complicated.

The problem with pricing

The biggest complication is how dairy farmers are paid for the products they produce.

In 1937, the Federal Milk Marketing Orders, or FMMO, were established under the Agricultural Marketing Agreement Act. The purpose of these orders was to set a monthly, uniform minimum price for milk based on its end use and to ensure that farmers were paid accurately and in a timely manner.

Farmers were paid based on how the milk they harvested was used, and that’s still how it works today.

Does it become bottled milk? That’s Class 1 price. Yogurt? Class 2 price. Cheddar cheese? Class 3 price. Butter or powdered dry milk? Class 4. Traditionally, Class 1 receives the highest price.

There are 11 FMMOs that divide up the country. The Florida, Southeast and Appalachian FMMOs focus heavily on Class 1, or bottled, milk. The other FMMOs, such as Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest, have more manufactured products such as cheese and butter.

For the past several decades, farmers have generally received the minimum price. Improvements in milk quality, milk production, transportation, refrigeration and processing all led to greater quantities of milk, greater shelf life and greater access to products across the U.S. Growing supply reduced competition among processing plants and reduced overall prices.

Along with these improvements in production came increased costs of production, such as cattle feed, farm labor, veterinary care, fuel and equipment costs.

Researchers at the University of Tennessee in 2022 compared the price received for milk across regions against the primary costs of production: feed and labor. The results show why farms are struggling.

From 2005 to 2020, milk sales income per 100 pounds of milk produced ranged from $11.54 to $29.80, with an average price of $18.57. For that same period, the total costs to produce 100 pounds of milk ranged from $11.27 to $43.88, with an average cost of $25.80.

On average, that meant a single cow that produced 24,000 pounds of milk brought in about $4,457. Yet, it cost $6,192 to produce that milk, meaning a loss for the dairy farmer.

More efficient farms are able to reduce their costs of production by improving cow health, reproductive performance and feed-to-milk conversion ratios. Larger farms or groups of farmers – cooperatives such as Dairy Farmers of America – may also be able to take advantage of forward contracting on grain and future milk prices. Investments in precision technologies such as robotic milking systems, rotary parlors and wearable health and reproductive technologies can help reduce labor costs across farms.

Regardless of size, surviving in the dairy industry takes passion, dedication and careful business management.

Some regions have had greater losses than others, which largely ties back to how farmers are paid, meaning the classes of milk, and the rising costs of production in their area. There are some insurance and hedging programs that can help farmers offset high costs of production or unexpected drops in price. If farmers take advantage of them, data shows they can functions as a safety net, but they don’t fix the underlying problem of costs exceeding income.

Passing the torch to future farmers

Why do some dairy farmers still persist, despite low milk prices and high costs of production?

For many farmers, the answer is because it is a family business and a part of their heritage. Ninety-seven percent of U.S. dairy farms are family owned and operated.

Some have grown large to survive. For many others, transitioning to the next generation is a major hurdle.

The average age of all farmers in the 2022 Census of Agriculture was 58.1. Only 9% were considered “young farmers,” age 34 or younger. These trends are also reflected in the dairy world. Yet, only 53% of all producers said they were actively engaged in estate or succession planning, meaning they had at least identified a successor.

How to help family dairy farms thrive

In theory, buying more dairy would drive up the market value of those products and influence the price producers receive for their milk. Society has actually done that. Dairy consumption has never been higher. But the way people consume dairy has changed.

Americans eat a lot, and I mean a lot, of cheese. We also consume a good amount of ice cream, yogurt and butter, but not as much milk as we used to.

Does this mean the U.S. should change the way milk is priced? Maybe.

The FMMO is currently undergoing reform, which may help stem the tide of dairy farmers exiting. The reform focuses on being more reflective of modern cows’ ability to produce greater fat and protein amounts; updating the cost support processors receive for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk and dried whey; and updating the way Class 1 is valued, among other changes. In theory, these changes would put milk pricing in line with the cost of production across the country.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is also providing support for four Dairy Business Innovation Initiatives to help dairy farmers find ways to keep their operations going for future generations through grants, research support and technical assistance.

Another way to boost local dairies is to buy directly from a farmer. Value-added or farmstead dairy operations that make and sell milk and products such as cheese straight to customers have been growing. These operations come with financial risks for the farmer, however. Being responsible for milking, processing and marketing your milk takes the already big job of milk production and adds two more jobs on top of it. And customers have to be financially able to pay a higher price for the product and be willing to travel to get it.The Conversation

About the Author:

Elizabeth Eckelkamp, Associate Professor of Animal Science and Dairy Extension Specialist, University of Tennessee

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
14 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (42,723 contracts) with Soybeans (17,794 contracts), Wheat (11,439 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,436 contracts), Live Cattle (2,720 contracts), Cocoa (295 contracts) and Lean Hogs (261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-9,399 contracts), Cotton (-7,957 contracts) and with Coffee (-474 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) and Wheat (58 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are the best markets over the 3-year range currently.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.4 percent)
Sugar (23.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.1 percent)
Coffee (87.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.2 percent)
Soybeans (12.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (38.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (43.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (39.3 percent)
Live Cattle (14.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (11.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (26.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.9 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.8 percent)
Cocoa (42.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.5 percent)
Wheat (58.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.1 percent)

Corn & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (21 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (18 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers with the strongest trends.

Live Cattle (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-5 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.7 percent)
Sugar (9.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.5 percent)
Soybeans (5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (17.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-29.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-17.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.5 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.3 percent)
Cocoa (-0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.4 percent)
Wheat (19.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 42,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.044.39.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.537.512.7
– Net Position:-47,76092,844-45,084
– Gross Longs:339,497602,238127,801
– Gross Shorts:387,257509,394172,885
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.874.847.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-17.6-42.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.555.28.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.863.17.9
– Net Position:63,403-65,2181,815
– Gross Longs:176,409452,22866,810
– Gross Shorts:113,006517,44664,995
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.877.721.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-8.84.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.738.34.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.172.32.6
– Net Position:63,447-66,2092,762
– Gross Longs:79,10674,5227,745
– Gross Shorts:15,659140,7314,983
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.712.259.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-1.314.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -144,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.864.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.343.67.7
– Net Position:-144,231168,163-23,932
– Gross Longs:105,764527,19839,866
– Gross Shorts:249,995359,03563,798
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.590.350.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-2.7-33.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.551.45.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.450.85.2
– Net Position:-4,8693,5221,347
– Gross Longs:137,649277,92729,271
– Gross Shorts:142,518274,40527,924
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.864.719.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-14.1-13.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.547.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.859.05.4
– Net Position:38,898-57,66618,768
– Gross Longs:119,265242,12546,003
– Gross Shorts:80,367299,79127,235
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.454.940.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-1.916.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.536.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.343.113.3
– Net Position:33,049-21,140-11,909
– Gross Longs:96,103106,57027,356
– Gross Shorts:63,054127,71039,265
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.696.626.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.029.713.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.738.47.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.733.39.2
– Net Position:-7,48112,577-5,096
– Gross Longs:92,49094,22217,542
– Gross Shorts:99,97181,64522,638
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.176.160.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.4-15.1-3.9

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.951.85.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.830.76.8
– Net Position:-46,11148,810-2,699
– Gross Longs:52,919119,95613,031
– Gross Shorts:99,03071,14615,730
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.25.1-3.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.833.97.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.561.53.4
– Net Position:32,225-38,2696,044
– Gross Longs:49,60246,98410,736
– Gross Shorts:17,37785,2534,692
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.853.763.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.71.0-2.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.136.17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.729.39.9
– Net Position:-16,30324,280-7,977
– Gross Longs:126,513129,88427,534
– Gross Shorts:142,816105,60435,511
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.343.518.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.4-18.5-13.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (58,051 contracts) with Sugar (24,887 contracts), Soybeans (22,241 contracts), Soybean Oil (21,488 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,966 contracts), Wheat (4,939 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,043 contracts) and Cocoa (1,738 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (3 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (27.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.3 percent)
Coffee (88.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.1 percent)
Soybeans (8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (22.2 percent)
Cotton (2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (42.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (50.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.5 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (17 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (13 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Coffee (-3 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.9 percent)
Coffee (-2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.3 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.4 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.1 percent)
Wheat (5.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -90,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.744.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.335.512.0
– Net Position:-90,483122,906-32,423
– Gross Longs:335,231605,741131,166
– Gross Shorts:425,714482,835163,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.478.864.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.7-14.5-29.4

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.354.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.564.27.2
– Net Position:72,802-78,8916,089
– Gross Longs:185,306455,44966,162
– Gross Shorts:112,504534,34060,073
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.173.827.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-13.713.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.137.54.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.571.52.6
– Net Position:63,921-66,7562,835
– Gross Longs:80,57473,5878,016
– Gross Shorts:16,653140,3435,181
– Long to Short Ratio:4.8 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.211.760.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.52.32.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 22,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.465.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.042.77.5
– Net Position:-162,025184,576-22,551
– Gross Longs:111,107538,62039,691
– Gross Shorts:273,132354,04462,242
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.394.453.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.68.7-30.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.053.15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.651.84.8
– Net Position:-8,3056,9121,393
– Gross Longs:133,596283,94526,951
– Gross Shorts:141,901277,03325,558
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.966.319.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.73.9-25.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.546.49.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.956.15.1
– Net Position:29,015-50,66021,645
– Gross Longs:122,853242,81248,556
– Gross Shorts:93,838293,47226,911
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.357.653.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-3.618.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.136.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.943.113.0
– Net Position:30,329-18,370-11,959
– Gross Longs:95,135109,38326,606
– Gross Shorts:64,806127,75338,565
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.6100.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.719.80.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.538.07.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.633.18.8
– Net Position:-7,74212,341-4,599
– Gross Longs:97,19995,99317,559
– Gross Shorts:104,94183,65222,158
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.975.862.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-16.4-13.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.350.35.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.033.26.2
– Net Position:-38,15439,133-979
– Gross Longs:53,387115,19213,259
– Gross Shorts:91,54176,05914,238
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.897.010.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.41.66.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.732.38.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.760.03.5
– Net Position:31,930-38,4376,507
– Gross Longs:52,24844,64811,329
– Gross Shorts:20,31883,0854,822
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.553.567.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.40.66.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.435.47.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.626.79.4
– Net Position:-27,74233,399-5,657
– Gross Longs:134,551134,83029,968
– Gross Shorts:162,293101,43135,625
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.150.434.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-5.72.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
31 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (28,611 contracts) with Corn (16,762 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,877 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,011 contracts), Cotton (5,753 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,475 contracts), Coffee (2,749 contracts) and Cocoa (1,304 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-6,975 contracts), Soybeans (-5,373 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-1,853 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Soybeans (3 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Live Cattle (15 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Sugar (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (18.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.1 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (88.4 percent)
Soybeans (3.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.0 percent)
Live Cattle (15.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.7 percent)
Cotton (3.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (39.4 percent)
Wheat (46.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (51.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Corn (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (2 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-15 percent), Soybean Meal (-7 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-6.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Coffee (-4.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-21.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-16.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.7 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -148,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.944.49.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.132.311.6
– Net Position:-148,534175,015-26,481
– Gross Longs:317,652644,776142,421
– Gross Shorts:466,186469,761168,902
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.085.772.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-9.5-25.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.754.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.060.97.0
– Net Position:47,915-52,9935,078
– Gross Longs:188,930453,49863,531
– Gross Shorts:141,015506,49158,453
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.081.226.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.86.7-4.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.037.64.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.673.92.5
– Net Position:66,907-70,5223,615
– Gross Longs:81,64673,1058,571
– Gross Shorts:14,739143,6274,956
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.18.172.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.03.74.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -184,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.363.86.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.939.47.8
– Net Position:-184,266198,947-14,681
– Gross Longs:108,772520,60848,554
– Gross Shorts:293,038321,66163,235
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.197.974.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.46.3-7.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.953.35.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.448.54.9
– Net Position:-29,79326,1913,602
– Gross Longs:129,368288,50630,211
– Gross Shorts:159,161262,31526,609
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.175.928.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.416.4-5.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.246.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.053.15.4
– Net Position:17,049-37,61420,565
– Gross Longs:118,177244,38249,070
– Gross Shorts:101,128281,99628,505
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.462.848.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.85.215.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.536.79.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.844.213.5
– Net Position:33,769-21,555-12,214
– Gross Longs:97,052106,43926,856
– Gross Shorts:63,283127,99439,070
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.396.424.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.518.9-10.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.138.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.031.58.7
– Net Position:-11,78515,619-3,834
– Gross Longs:92,28491,93617,159
– Gross Shorts:104,06976,31720,993
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.680.166.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-12.9-10.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.149.75.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.433.06.0
– Net Position:-37,07537,777-702
– Gross Longs:56,934112,86012,938
– Gross Shorts:94,00975,08313,640
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.596.212.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.46.1-1.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Potential Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.031.38.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.258.33.2
– Net Position:30,192-37,4507,258
– Gross Longs:54,05543,40511,674
– Gross Shorts:23,86380,8554,416
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.854.574.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.10.216.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.435.28.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.726.09.1
– Net Position:-32,68135,914-3,233
– Gross Longs:139,525138,47532,640
– Gross Shorts:172,206102,56135,873
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.552.346.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-4.914.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
24 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (13,199 contracts) with Soybean Oil (6,693 contracts), Coffee (5,218 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,692 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,159 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-15,258 contracts) with Soybeans (-13,170 contracts), Corn (-11,291 contracts), Cocoa (-1,380 contracts), Cotton (-1,158 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-615 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Sugar (8 percent), Corn (13 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Live Cattle (17 percent) and Soybean Oil (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (12.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.3 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.1 percent)
Coffee (88.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybeans (4.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.3 percent)
Live Cattle (17.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.7 percent)
Cocoa (39.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (51.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (42.0 percent)

Corn tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (10 percent), Lean Hogs (7 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybean Oil (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-22 percent), Live Cattle (-17 percent) and Sugar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-16.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.3 percent)
Coffee (-11.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.6 percent)
Soybeans (-6.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-21.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-27.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-16.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.2 percent)
Cotton (-11.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.1 percent)
Wheat (6.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -165,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.644.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.232.211.1
– Net Position:-165,296197,121-31,825
– Gross Longs:319,844697,858140,896
– Gross Shorts:485,140500,737172,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.888.765.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-7.1-28.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.954.27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.555.88.3
– Net Position:19,304-13,294-6,010
– Gross Longs:188,316446,31462,107
– Gross Shorts:169,012459,60868,117
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.992.711.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.519.2-24.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 64,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.938.84.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.773.82.4
– Net Position:64,158-67,7373,579
– Gross Longs:79,03274,9798,296
– Gross Shorts:14,874142,7164,717
– Long to Short Ratio:5.3 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.410.871.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.010.56.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -178,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.062.74.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.938.57.2
– Net Position:-178,893197,454-18,561
– Gross Longs:105,737511,62639,933
– Gross Shorts:284,630314,17258,494
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.397.664.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.89.1-20.9

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.353.25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.746.44.7
– Net Position:-42,67039,1493,521
– Gross Longs:133,857305,93430,612
– Gross Shorts:176,527266,78527,091
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.182.327.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.924.3-0.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.246.49.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.652.85.4
– Net Position:13,574-34,19720,623
– Gross Longs:118,191247,39349,516
– Gross Shorts:104,617281,59028,893
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.064.248.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.619.911.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.336.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.943.914.2
– Net Position:35,622-22,612-13,010
– Gross Longs:98,255103,18927,738
– Gross Shorts:62,633125,80140,748
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.395.120.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.922.5-14.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.939.16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.327.78.1
– Net Position:-21,79626,506-4,710
– Gross Longs:86,24791,22514,296
– Gross Shorts:108,04364,71919,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.791.662.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-5.4-11.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.249.55.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.730.85.9
– Net Position:-42,82843,223-395
– Gross Longs:58,393114,52113,326
– Gross Shorts:101,22171,29813,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.314.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.29.113.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.930.38.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.356.74.0
– Net Position:28,888-35,2706,382
– Gross Longs:51,92340,36911,703
– Gross Shorts:23,03575,6395,321
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.456.766.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.93.2-2.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.433.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.626.39.1
– Net Position:-25,70631,360-5,654
– Gross Longs:134,387140,44132,167
– Gross Shorts:160,093109,08137,821
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.648.934.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.5-6.5-2.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
17 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (8,747 contracts) with Wheat (1,480 contracts) and Cotton (238 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-33,676 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,035 contracts), Soybeans (-6,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,998 contracts), Corn (-2,036 contracts), Cocoa (-829 contracts), Coffee (-267 contracts) and with Soybean Oil (-197 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) leads the softs markets this week and is the only market above 50 percent.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Sugar (13 percent), Soybean Oil (14 percent), Corn (14 percent) and Live Cattle (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.5 percent)
Sugar (12.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.8 percent)
Coffee (83.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.1 percent)
Live Cattle (18.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (27.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.0 percent)
Cotton (0.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.7 percent)
Wheat (42.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.0 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (10 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Soybean Oil (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.3 percent)
Sugar (-10.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.8 percent)
Coffee (-8.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-10.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-27.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.4 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.0 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.8 percent)
Wheat (-0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -154,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.843.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.632.510.8
– Net Position:-154,005178,071-24,066
– Gross Longs:328,996690,965146,234
– Gross Shorts:483,001512,894170,300
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.386.175.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-7.7-22.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.454.07.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.158.17.7
– Net Position:34,562-33,023-1,539
– Gross Longs:188,878436,15060,828
– Gross Shorts:154,316469,17362,367
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.787.517.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.012.9-21.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.344.04.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.175.92.5
– Net Position:58,940-62,2783,338
– Gross Longs:72,86685,8358,160
– Gross Shorts:13,926148,1134,822
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.316.168.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.68.17.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -165,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.660.55.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.138.17.0
– Net Position:-165,723181,179-15,456
– Gross Longs:118,322489,82941,443
– Gross Shorts:284,045308,65056,899
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.493.572.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.312.7-20.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.953.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.745.34.8
– Net Position:-49,36347,4071,956
– Gross Longs:122,456300,92428,595
– Gross Shorts:171,819253,51726,639
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.486.321.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.210.1-7.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.046.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.252.16.0
– Net Position:9,415-27,70618,291
– Gross Longs:110,758246,53849,884
– Gross Shorts:101,343274,24431,593
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.366.737.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.626.24.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.835.49.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.243.914.1
– Net Position:36,237-24,267-11,970
– Gross Longs:99,758101,33428,459
– Gross Shorts:63,521125,60140,429
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.093.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.522.5-21.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.039.16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.026.87.8
– Net Position:-26,48829,684-3,196
– Gross Longs:84,57094,47015,656
– Gross Shorts:111,05864,78618,852
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.695.069.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.2-6.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.149.46.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.430.86.4
– Net Position:-41,67042,276-606
– Gross Longs:59,448112,56314,072
– Gross Shorts:101,11870,28714,678
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.198.812.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.912.512.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.833.68.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.460.14.1
– Net Position:30,268-35,7385,470
– Gross Longs:51,01845,33311,037
– Gross Shorts:20,75081,0715,567
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.856.258.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.10.9-8.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.236.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.926.08.9
– Net Position:-38,90543,517-4,612
– Gross Longs:125,365147,93731,254
– Gross Shorts:164,270104,42035,866
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.058.139.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.2-0.33.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
10 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (60,473 contracts) with Soybeans (8,772 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,397 contracts), Wheat (2,873 contracts) and Lean Hogs (705 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,288 contracts), Sugar (-10,664 contracts), Cotton (-4,567 contracts), Coffee (-3,809 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,773 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (84 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (9 percent), Sugar (10 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Soybean Oil (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.8 percent)
Sugar (9.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (83.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.9 percent)
Live Cattle (27.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.4 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.8 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.5 percent)
Wheat (39.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.5 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Lean Hogs (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (3 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-11 percent), Coffee (-11 percent) and Soybeans (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.3 percent)
Sugar (-3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.4 percent)
Soybeans (-11.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-26.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cotton (-11.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.9 percent)
Cocoa (1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (2.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -151,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 60,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -212,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.344.79.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.933.710.7
– Net Position:-151,969173,479-21,510
– Gross Longs:320,403705,379147,095
– Gross Shorts:472,372531,900168,605
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.585.579.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-2.73.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.355.27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.157.78.2
– Net Position:25,815-20,274-5,541
– Gross Longs:186,989443,36460,431
– Gross Shorts:161,174463,63865,972
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.791.212.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.76.2-15.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.741.63.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.467.02.4
– Net Position:59,207-61,7712,564
– Gross Longs:72,262101,0598,330
– Gross Shorts:13,055162,8305,766
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.616.656.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.211.6-6.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -159,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.161.55.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.439.57.1
– Net Position:-159,128173,211-14,083
– Gross Longs:111,259484,22741,958
– Gross Shorts:270,387311,01656,041
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.091.675.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.313.6-18.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.053.15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.944.94.8
– Net Position:-49,16645,2853,881
– Gross Longs:115,500292,56530,057
– Gross Shorts:164,666247,28026,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.585.329.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.5-14.712.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.343.19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.055.05.6
– Net Position:43,091-61,35118,260
– Gross Longs:125,998223,11947,203
– Gross Shorts:82,907284,47028,943
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.153.437.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.215.930.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.632.510.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.944.114.1
– Net Position:45,272-33,544-11,728
– Gross Longs:108,65594,05228,946
– Gross Shorts:63,383127,59640,674
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.881.727.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.78.6-19.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.439.56.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.329.07.7
– Net Position:-21,49025,276-3,786
– Gross Longs:87,50395,08714,748
– Gross Shorts:108,99369,81118,534
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.090.366.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-2.5-11.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.550.85.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.031.26.5
– Net Position:-41,90844,447-2,539
– Gross Longs:60,131115,17812,254
– Gross Shorts:102,03970,73114,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.01.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.010.5-4.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.135.58.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.562.54.3
– Net Position:31,097-37,0735,976
– Gross Longs:49,60248,71011,944
– Gross Shorts:18,50585,7835,968
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.754.963.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.8-1.7-0.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.338.97.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.728.08.5
– Net Position:-40,38546,947-6,562
– Gross Longs:122,142167,81830,313
– Gross Shorts:162,527120,87136,875
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.561.629.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.90.3-22.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
20 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (2,955 contracts) with Corn (1,125 contracts) and Cocoa (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-32,730 contracts), Soybeans (-11,353 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,446 contracts), Coffee (-4,441 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,065 contracts), Cotton (-1,998 contracts), Wheat (-1,281 contracts) and with Sugar (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (95 percent) leads the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cotton (1 percent), Corn (3 percent), Lean Hogs (8 percent) and Soybeans (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (3.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.3 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.5 percent)
Coffee (95.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (99.4 percent)
Soybeans (8.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (11.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (54.6 percent)
Live Cattle (29.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (5.6 percent)
Cotton (0.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.2 percent)
Cocoa (42.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (42.3 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (43.3 percent)

Sugar & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (23 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent), Soybean Meal (-26 percent) and Soybeans (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-15 percent) following next with in lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-15.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-24.0 percent)
Sugar (23.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.5 percent)
Coffee (3.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.0 percent)
Soybeans (-25.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-26.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-10.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-26.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-35.3 percent)
Cotton (-13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-21.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -238,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.645.59.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.729.910.1
– Net Position:-238,816246,223-7,407
– Gross Longs:307,784716,565152,114
– Gross Shorts:546,600470,342159,521
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.595.297.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.112.137.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.155.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.365.17.4
– Net Position:67,589-76,3288,739
– Gross Longs:177,958424,39565,838
– Gross Shorts:110,369500,72357,099
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.476.031.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.4-24.022.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 70,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.436.33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.668.52.2
– Net Position:70,979-74,3263,347
– Gross Longs:86,15183,5138,486
– Gross Shorts:15,172157,8395,139
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.468.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-3.911.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.259.35.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.538.67.3
– Net Position:-161,503173,410-11,907
– Gross Longs:135,252496,31049,082
– Gross Shorts:296,755322,90060,989
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.491.681.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.825.319.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.352.15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.953.34.6
– Net Position:2,031-6,9294,898
– Gross Longs:112,712289,02330,362
– Gross Shorts:110,681295,95225,464
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.659.533.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.1-19.63.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -32,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.641.49.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.350.95.9
– Net Position:33,624-50,70217,078
– Gross Longs:131,194220,88948,465
– Gross Shorts:97,570271,59131,387
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.257.632.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.226.4-12.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.932.29.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.543.512.5
– Net Position:47,212-37,003-10,209
– Gross Longs:124,193105,59330,807
– Gross Shorts:76,981142,59641,016
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.877.535.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.510.8-10.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.937.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.927.38.0
– Net Position:-26,39327,877-1,484
– Gross Longs:81,37299,72319,711
– Gross Shorts:107,76571,84621,195
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.093.876.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.229.15.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -26,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.948.25.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.035.96.0
– Net Position:-26,50726,921-414
– Gross Longs:61,011105,42412,713
– Gross Shorts:87,51878,50313,127
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.898.613.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.311.83.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 32,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.433.58.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.060.94.4
– Net Position:32,278-37,6435,365
– Gross Longs:47,38346,22211,372
– Gross Shorts:15,10583,8656,007
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.954.357.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.43.2-15.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.939.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.629.19.2
– Net Position:-36,06742,315-6,248
– Gross Longs:127,750162,86131,934
– Gross Shorts:163,817120,54638,182
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.558.233.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.512.45.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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