Soft Commodities

Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 2

How Europe’s deforestation law could change the global coffee trade

By Paul Mwebaze, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

If your morning can’t begin without coffee, you’re in good company. The world drinks about 2 billion cups of coffee a day. However, a European Union law might soon affect your favorite coffee beans – and the farmers who grow them.

Starting in 2026, companies selling coffee on the European Union market will have to prove that their product is “deforestation-free.” That means every bag of beans, every jar of ground coffee and every espresso capsule must trace back to coffee plants on land that hasn’t been cleared of forest since Dec. 31, 2020.

The new rules, found in what’s known as the EU Deforestation Regulation, are part of a wider effort to ensure European consumption doesn’t drive global deforestation.

However, on the ground – from the coffee hills of Ethiopia to the plantations of Brazil – the rule change could transform how coffee is grown, traded and sold.

Why the EU is targeting deforestation

Deforestation is a major driver of biodiversity loss and accounts for about 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. And coffee plantations, along with cocoa, soy and palm oil production, which are also covered by the new regulations, are known sources of forest loss in some countries.

Under the new EU Deforestation Regulation, companies will be required to trace their coffee to its exact origin – down to the farm plot where the beans were grown – and provide geolocation data and documentation of supply chain custody to EU authorities.

They will also have to show proof, often through satellite imagery, that any open land where coffee is grown was forest-free before the 2020 cutoff date.

The rules were initially set to go into effect in early 2025 but were pushed back after complaints from many countries. Governments and industry groups in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia warned of trade friction for small farms, and the World Trade Organization has received complaints about the regulations.

Most companies must now comply by Dec. 30, 2025. Small enterprises get until June 30, 2026.

Potential winners and losers

The coffee supply chain is complex. Beans are grown by millions of farmers, sold to collectors, then move through processors, exporters, importers and roasters before reaching grocery shelves. Adding the EU rules means more checkpoints, more paperwork and possibly new strategies for sourcing coffee beans.

Small farms in particular could be vulnerable to losing business when the new rules go into effect. They could lose contracts or market access if they can’t provide the plot-level GPS coordinates and nondeforestation documentation buyers will require. That could prompt buyers to shift toward larger estates or organized co-ops that can provide the documentation.

If a farm can’t provide precise plot coordinates or pay for mapping services, it could end up being excluded from the world’s largest coffee market.

Larger coffee growers already using systems that can trace beans back to specific farm plots could gain a competitive edge.

Map showing tropical forests mostly in Africa, South America, Southeast Asia and Indonesia, and boreal and temperate forests across Canada, Russia and parts of Europe. — Global forest area by type and distribution in 2020, according to a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization assessment.
FAO

The new regulations also include stricter oversight for countries considered most likely to allow deforestation, which could slow trade from those regions. As a result, buyers may shift to regions with lower deforestation risk.

Even outside Europe, big buyers are likely to prioritize beans they can trace to nondeforested plots, potentially dropping small farms that can’t provide plot-level proof. That could reduce availability and raise the price of some coffee types and put farms out of business. In some cases, the EU regulations could reroute undocumented coffee beans into markets such as the U.S.

Helping small farms succeed

For small farms, succeeding under the new EU rules will depend on access to technical support and low-cost tools for tracing their crop’s origin. Some countries are developing national systems to track deforestation, and they are pushing the EU to invest more in helping them.

Those small farms that can comply with the rules, often through co-ops, could become attractive low-risk suppliers for large buyers seeking compliant crops.

The change could also boost demand for sustainability certifications, such as Rainforest Alliance, 4C Common Code or Fairtrade, which certify only products that don’t contribute to deforestation. But even certified farms will still need to provide precise location data.

Agroforestry’s potential

Arabica coffee, the most common variety sold globally, naturally evolved as an understory shrub, performing best in cooler tropical uplands with good drainage and often partial shade. That points to a way farmers can reduce deforestation risk while still growing coffee: agroforestry.

Two women examine beans on a coffee plant. — Farmers check on coffee beans at a small agroforestry operation in Kenya. The coffee bushes were planted among trees that provide shade.
World Agroforestry Centre/Joseph Gachoka via Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA

Agroforestry involves planting or conserving shade trees in and around coffee plots to maintain the tree canopy.

In agroforestry systems, shade trees can buffer heat and drought, often reducing evaporation from soil and moderating plants’ water stress. Several field studies show lower evaporative losses and complementary water use between coffee and shade trees. In some contexts, this can lower irrigation needs and reduce fertilizer demand. Practical tools such as World Coffee Research’s Shade Catalog help farmers choose the right tree species for their location and goals.

Agroforestry is common in Ethiopia, where Arabica originated, and in parts of Central America, thanks to long traditions of growing coffee in shade and specialty demand for the products.

Under the new EU rules, however, even these farms must prove that no forest was cleared after 2020.

Why this matters to coffee drinkers

For European coffee drinkers, the new EU rules promise more sustainable coffee. But they may also mean higher prices if compliance costs are passed down the supply chain to consumers.

For coffee lovers elsewhere, changes in global trade flows could shift where beans are sold and at what price. As EU buyers bid up beans that can be traced to nondeforested plots, more of those “fully verified” coffees will flow to Europe. U.S. roasters may then face higher prices or tighter supply for traceable lots, while unverified beans are discounted or simply avoided by brands that choose to follow EU standards.

About the Author:

Paul Mwebaze, Research Economist at the Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Environment, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (18,485 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,272 contracts), Wheat (7,146 contracts), Live Cattle (3,958 contracts), Coffee (3,712 contracts) and Soybeans (3,231 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,568 contracts), Sugar (-11,067 contracts), Cotton (-10,606 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,127 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,299 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Weekly Price Gains

Leading the soft commodities gains this week was Cocoa, with a 9.3% rise for the last five days of trading. Cocoa has been up by almost 28% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Soybean Meal was up by 2.64% on the week. Soybean Meal, however, has been down by -3.5% over the last 30 days and is down by just -1.11% over the last 90 days.

Lean hogs came in third this week with a gain of 2.17%. Lean Hogs is up by 6.52% in the last 30 days and up by over 7% in the last 90 days.

Corn was the only other riser on the week, with a 1.56% gain. Despite this gain, Corn is down by -7.64% in the last 90 days.

On the downside, Soybean Oil saw a small decline by -0.43% this week. Cotton was down by -0.8% this week. Live cattle saw a decline by -1.53%, but has been up by 17.56% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Wheat was lower by -1.65%, and Soybeans were lower by -1.75%. Coffee saw a drop by -3.2% this week, and Sugar saw the biggest drop with a -4.82% decline. Sugar is now down by -10.36% over the last 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (67 percent), Coffee (60 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (8 percent), Soybean Meal (12 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.2 percent)
Soybeans (56.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.4 percent)
Live Cattle (86.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (90.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (84.7 percent)
Cotton (8.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (16.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (37.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.8 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (11 percent) and Soybean Meal (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (6 percent), Coffee (4 percent) and Live Cattle (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-14 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.0 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (3.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.1 percent)
Soybeans (-3.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	46.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	40.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-52,455	87,814	-35,359
– Gross Longs:	350,610	672,040	123,585
– Gross Shorts:	403,065	584,226	158,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.5	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.8	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -85,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	53.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	44.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-85,805	88,575	-2,770
– Gross Longs:	184,300	505,407	70,352
– Gross Shorts:	270,105	416,832	73,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.8	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	3.9	13.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	38.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	34,986	-37,500	2,514
– Gross Longs:	57,564	65,225	9,080
– Gross Shorts:	22,578	102,725	6,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	41.2	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-5.4	30.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	56.8	7.5
– Net Position:	21,420	-6,672	-14,748
– Gross Longs:	157,352	483,406	49,895
– Gross Shorts:	135,932	490,078	64,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	42.3	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	3.2	7.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	44.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	53.3	4.2
– Net Position:	46,383	-54,688	8,305
– Gross Longs:	134,545	268,814	33,950
– Gross Shorts:	88,162	323,502	25,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	33.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.1	-26.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -54,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	53.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	45.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-54,464	41,895	12,569
– Gross Longs:	108,170	308,856	47,190
– Gross Shorts:	162,634	266,961	34,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	91.4	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-4.1	-46.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.4	27.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	50.4	12.5
– Net Position:	110,235	-89,518	-20,717
– Gross Longs:	192,249	110,848	28,932
– Gross Shorts:	82,014	200,366	49,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	13.3	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-4.2	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	26.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.3	7.6
– Net Position:	83,340	-79,175	-4,165
– Gross Longs:	163,887	96,532	23,591
– Gross Shorts:	80,547	175,707	27,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	8.2	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.1	4.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	30.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,212	48,968	-756
– Gross Longs:	70,472	126,343	12,788
– Gross Shorts:	118,684	77,375	13,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	92.7	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	-7.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	47.0	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	58.7	8.0
– Net Position:	6,697	-10,548	3,851
– Gross Longs:	24,029	42,365	11,040
– Gross Shorts:	17,332	52,913	7,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	83.2	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.8	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	37.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.5	7.6
– Net Position:	-71,636	71,701	-65
– Gross Longs:	126,625	159,079	32,467
– Gross Shorts:	198,261	87,378	32,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	63.1	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	10.3	37.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads price gains on the week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.

Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -70,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-70,940	93,769	-22,829
– Gross Longs:	337,007	675,979	135,440
– Gross Shorts:	407,947	582,210	158,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	71.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.6	5.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-74,738	75,802	-1,064
– Gross Longs:	190,535	491,865	71,165
– Gross Shorts:	265,273	416,063	72,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.8	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.4	16.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	38.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	31,274	-33,581	2,307
– Gross Longs:	55,237	61,582	8,434
– Gross Shorts:	23,963	95,163	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	44.9	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.5	24.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.2	7.8
– Net Position:	18,189	-643	-17,546
– Gross Longs:	153,775	483,561	49,348
– Gross Shorts:	135,586	484,204	66,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.2	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	43.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	54.0	4.3
– Net Position:	55,510	-63,636	8,126
– Gross Longs:	142,575	262,931	34,031
– Gross Shorts:	87,065	326,567	25,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	29.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.6	-21.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	49.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-32,896	18,769	14,127
– Gross Longs:	108,956	312,972	48,413
– Gross Shorts:	141,852	294,203	34,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	82.5	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.2	-54.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 106,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	28.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.6	12.8
– Net Position:	106,277	-85,211	-21,066
– Gross Longs:	189,758	112,784	28,909
– Gross Shorts:	83,481	197,995	49,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.5	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.1	5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	27.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.4	7.3
– Net Position:	76,068	-71,664	-4,404
– Gross Longs:	152,263	93,942	20,718
– Gross Shorts:	76,195	165,606	25,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.2	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	48.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-37,606	37,534	72
– Gross Longs:	67,460	116,539	12,245
– Gross Shorts:	105,066	79,005	12,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.2	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	-1.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	45.8	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	58.9	8.1
– Net Position:	7,996	-11,793	3,797
– Gross Longs:	24,532	41,060	11,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,536	52,853	7,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.9	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	4.3	-4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	20.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-78,782	78,683	99
– Gross Longs:	127,585	171,579	33,536
– Gross Shorts:	206,367	92,896	33,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	6.9	33.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bet Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while five markets had lower speculator contracts and one market had no change.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (35,321 contracts) with Corn (27,964 contracts), Soybean Meal (10,184 contracts), Cotton (3,334 contracts) and Coffee (2,458 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-15,862 contracts), Wheat (-4,572 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,218 contracts), Sugar (-1,781 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,720 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle (0 contracts) showed not change on the week which is extremely rare and could likely be revised going forward.

Coffee leads price changes followed by Cocoa

Price changes for the soft commodities markets over the last five days saw just about all of them higher on the week. Coffee led with a huge weekly gain of 14.49%, followed by Cocoa which rose by over 11%. Soybean Meal was up by almost 6% on the week, Live Cattle rose by over 4%, followed by Soybean Oil which was up by 3%, and Lean Hogs which rose by over 2%.

Cotton and Corn also were higher by just over a percent, while Soybeans increased by 1%. Wheat prices were unchanged for the week, while Sugar was the only market that saw a decline with a -0.45% reduction.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (15 percent), Cotton (16 percent) and the Wheat (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (1.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.4 percent)
Coffee (53.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.3 percent)
Soybeans (55.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (69.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.1 percent)
Cotton (16.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.4 percent)
Cocoa (22.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.0 percent)
Wheat (19.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Corn (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Soybean Oil (-5 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.0 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-0.4 percent)
Coffee (-0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.7 percent)
Soybeans (-4.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (4.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-15.7 percent)
Cotton (-3.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -105,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	45.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	37.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-105,210	123,955	-18,745
– Gross Longs:	334,720	714,119	141,542
– Gross Shorts:	439,930	590,164	160,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	76.0	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.3	6.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -70,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	53.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	45.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-70,293	72,429	-2,136
– Gross Longs:	193,091	482,317	69,614
– Gross Shorts:	263,384	409,888	71,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.0	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-0.5	16.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	40.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	28,660	-30,356	1,696
– Gross Longs:	48,952	61,658	7,632
– Gross Shorts:	20,292	92,014	5,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	48.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-0.4	12.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	7.3
– Net Position:	19,746	-4,205	-15,541
– Gross Longs:	155,697	481,033	49,550
– Gross Shorts:	135,951	485,238	65,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	42.9	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	0.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.6	4.4
– Net Position:	50,207	-59,523	9,316
– Gross Longs:	141,004	268,812	36,141
– Gross Shorts:	90,797	328,335	26,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	31.3	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.7	-1.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -48,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	50.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	45.2	5.2
– Net Position:	-48,128	31,206	16,922
– Gross Longs:	115,221	326,017	50,621
– Gross Shorts:	163,349	294,811	33,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	87.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.0	-35.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	28.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	50.6	13.0
– Net Position:	106,141	-84,582	-21,559
– Gross Longs:	186,130	110,318	28,487
– Gross Shorts:	79,989	194,900	50,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	19.3	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.9	2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 69,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	28.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	47.6	7.4
– Net Position:	69,709	-64,123	-5,586
– Gross Longs:	148,031	93,494	18,865
– Gross Shorts:	78,322	157,617	24,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	20.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	6.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	32.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-35,105	35,326	-221
– Gross Longs:	67,937	113,021	11,819
– Gross Shorts:	103,042	77,695	12,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	84.9	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.0	1.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	40.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	58.5	7.7
– Net Position:	12,029	-16,261	4,232
– Gross Longs:	26,611	37,589	11,283
– Gross Shorts:	14,582	53,850	7,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	77.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.3	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	39.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	20.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-93,618	92,339	1,279
– Gross Longs:	129,713	195,592	36,833
– Gross Shorts:	223,331	103,253	35,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	81.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	20.8	51.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,585 contracts) with Soybean Meal (23,298 contracts), Sugar (8,460 contracts), Cocoa (3,706 contracts) and Lean Hogs (789 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,206 contracts), Wheat (-10,481 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,877 contracts), Coffee (-3,056 contracts), Cotton (-2,961 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-234 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Changes:

Leading the prices this week for the soft commodity markets was Coffee, which jumped by over 10%. Coffee has now been up by 16% in the last 30 days, but over the last 90 days it is down by almost 1%.

Soybeans came in second this week with a gain of over 5%, followed by Soybean Meal, which rose by over 2.5% on the week. Cocoa was next with a gain of almost 2%, followed by Cotton with a 1.3% rise, and then Sugar, which rose by just about 1.2% on the week. Corn (0.29%) and Soybean Oil (0.14%) edged up a minuscule amount on the week.

Live cattle (-0.22%), Lean Hogs (-0.97%), and Wheat were all down on the week, with Wheat seeing the biggest downfall at -1.86%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (78 percent) and Coffee (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (11 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and the Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (2.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (51.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.2 percent)
Soybeans (46.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.0 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (83.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.5 percent)
Cotton (14.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.2 percent)
Cocoa (24.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.2 percent)
Wheat (23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (32.0 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (11 percent) and Soybean Oil (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Soybeans (-15 percent) and Cotton (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (-2.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-1.8 percent)
Soybeans (-14.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (6.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.5 percent)
Cotton (-6.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (-15.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -133,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	44.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	34.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-133,174	155,179	-22,005
– Gross Longs:	313,217	690,502	144,348
– Gross Shorts:	446,391	535,323	166,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	80.7	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.9	-3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	52.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	45.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-68,512	64,008	4,504
– Gross Longs:	198,447	470,364	72,133
– Gross Shorts:	266,959	406,356	67,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	94.0	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.9	18.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	39.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	57.6	4.6
– Net Position:	26,202	-27,078	876
– Gross Longs:	46,593	57,194	7,616
– Gross Shorts:	20,391	84,272	6,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.1	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.7	-19.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	52.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	48.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-15,575	30,518	-14,943
– Gross Longs:	153,439	460,202	49,113
– Gross Shorts:	169,014	429,684	64,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.1	2.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 66,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	44.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.5	4.6
– Net Position:	66,069	-77,075	11,006
– Gross Longs:	139,219	276,377	39,003
– Gross Shorts:	73,150	353,452	27,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.3	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-4.0	-2.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	51.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	45.4	5.1
– Net Position:	-58,312	40,390	17,922
– Gross Longs:	111,199	342,675	51,943
– Gross Shorts:	169,511	302,285	34,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	90.8	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.8	-45.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	29.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	51.0	13.5
– Net Position:	106,141	-83,367	-22,774
– Gross Longs:	183,808	111,511	28,951
– Gross Shorts:	77,667	194,878	51,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	20.7	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	1.2	-10.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	49.0	7.4
– Net Position:	73,927	-69,042	-4,885
– Gross Longs:	153,610	98,076	20,430
– Gross Shorts:	79,683	167,118	25,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.0	13.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	30.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-38,439	39,218	-779
– Gross Longs:	68,099	113,063	11,588
– Gross Shorts:	106,538	73,845	12,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	87.2	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.7	-7.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.9	7.1
– Net Position:	13,749	-18,785	5,036
– Gross Longs:	27,469	39,736	11,968
– Gross Shorts:	13,720	58,521	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	74.8	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.3	11.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	37.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	19.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-89,046	88,024	1,022
– Gross Longs:	133,455	180,598	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	222,501	92,574	37,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	77.9	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	11.8	37.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Soybean Meal & Cocoa

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (25,499 contracts) with Soybean Meal (1,061 contracts) and Cocoa (187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-28,376 contracts), Sugar (-14,824 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,110 contracts), Wheat (-8,880 contracts), Cotton (-8,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,051 contracts), Coffee (-588 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads Price Changes

Leading the soft commodities markets this week in price changes was Coffee, with a gain of over five percent. Live Cattle also came in higher by over two percent. Lean Hogs were almost up by two percent, and Sugar was up by three quarters of one percent.

On the downside, Cocoa lost over six and a half percent from its price this week and has been down by over nine percent for the last 30 days. Soybean Oil was lower by 1.5 percent, Soybean Meal by just about one percent, while Corn and Soybeans were also down by a little over half a percent. Cotton and Wheat were mostly unchanged.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (83 percent), Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (54 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Meal (2 percent), Cotton (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the and the Cocoa (20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.2 percent)
Coffee (54.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.8 percent)
Soybeans (40.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (89.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (82.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.3 percent)
Cotton (16.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.0 percent)
Wheat (32.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.1 percent)

Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (6 percent) and Corn (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (0.2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Sugar (-8 percent) and Wheat (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.6 percent)
Sugar (-8.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-4.2 percent)
Coffee (-1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybeans (-24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (13.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.9 percent)
Live Cattle (0.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (-2.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.9 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.3 percent)
Wheat (-6.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (12.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -107,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	41.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	32.6	11.4
– Net Position:	-107,968	147,872	-39,904
– Gross Longs:	304,053	674,523	144,743
– Gross Shorts:	412,021	526,651	184,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	79.6	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	0.7	-31.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -76,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,824 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	53.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-76,972	89,529	-12,557
– Gross Longs:	195,681	475,643	62,659
– Gross Shorts:	272,653	386,114	75,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	3.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	9.0	-11.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	39.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.4	4.2
– Net Position:	29,258	-29,818	560
– Gross Longs:	49,040	63,450	7,367
– Gross Shorts:	19,782	93,268	6,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.2	48.5	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.8	-18.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -39,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	53.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	46.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-39,160	54,893	-15,733
– Gross Longs:	156,793	454,917	49,527
– Gross Shorts:	195,953	400,024	65,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.9	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	26.3	-6.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 74,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	43.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	57.2	4.3
– Net Position:	74,946	-86,018	11,072
– Gross Longs:	145,207	269,368	38,074
– Gross Shorts:	70,261	355,386	27,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	17.7	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.4	5.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -81,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	51.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	42.3	5.1
– Net Position:	-81,610	63,890	17,720
– Gross Longs:	113,280	346,431	51,829
– Gross Shorts:	194,890	282,541	34,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	99.8	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	4.6	-35.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 106,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	28.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	50.4	13.6
– Net Position:	106,375	-83,729	-22,646
– Gross Longs:	185,524	111,147	30,020
– Gross Shorts:	79,149	194,876	52,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	20.3	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	3.9	-11.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.3	29.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	49.2	7.7
– Net Position:	73,138	-68,353	-4,785
– Gross Longs:	150,728	99,031	21,285
– Gross Shorts:	77,590	167,384	26,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	16.9	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	15.5	15.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	46.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	30.5	5.5
– Net Position:	-35,478	37,338	-1,860
– Gross Longs:	69,961	109,145	11,121
– Gross Shorts:	105,439	71,807	12,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	86.1	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.0	-6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	42.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.3	7.3
– Net Position:	10,043	-13,330	3,287
– Gross Longs:	24,969	40,221	10,191
– Gross Shorts:	14,926	53,551	6,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	80.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	4.1	-12.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -78,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	36.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	20.4	8.0
– Net Position:	-78,565	80,870	-2,305
– Gross Longs:	132,500	181,531	37,218
– Gross Shorts:	211,065	100,661	39,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	71.4	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	4.6	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

27 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybeans, Soybean Oil & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans, Soybean Oil & Wheat

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (20,739 contracts) with Soybean Oil (12,389 contracts), Wheat (11,612 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,164 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,413 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-7,630 contracts), Lean Hogs (-7,623 contracts), Corn (-4,426 contracts), Cocoa (-3,491 contracts), Cotton (-2,167 contracts) and Coffee (-16 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Prices down over the week

The soft commodities market prices were down across the board, with Live Cattle being the only market that had a positive week.

Soybean Meal dropped by almost -4%, Cocoa by over -3%, and Sugar was down by -2.5%. Soybeans, Coffee, Wheat, and Corn were also down by over -1 percent.

Over the past 30 days, Coffee is down by over -13%, followed by Soybean Meal which is lower by almost -9%. On the positive side, Cocoa is up by 14% in the last 30 days, followed by Soybean Oil which is up by over 10% in the same time frame.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (85 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (84 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (60 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (5 percent), Cocoa (19 percent) and Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.6 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.3 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (84.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (77.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.7 percent)
Live Cattle (85.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (81.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (89.8 percent)
Cotton (21.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.5 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.0 percent)
Wheat (51.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (42.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (32 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.6 percent)
Sugar (-11.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.9 percent)
Coffee (-6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.8 percent)
Soybeans (-8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-6.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.3 percent)
Cotton (5.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.4 percent)
Cocoa (-11.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-7.8 percent)
Wheat (32.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -133,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	43.7	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	32.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-133,883	165,523	-31,640
– Gross Longs:	289,307	652,507	141,014
– Gross Shorts:	423,190	486,984	172,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	82.3	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.7	-14.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	53.1	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	44.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-59,729	72,031	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	198,761	460,209	62,484
– Gross Shorts:	258,490	388,178	74,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	99.0	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.1	-7.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	61.9	4.1
– Net Position:	31,117	-31,817	700
– Gross Longs:	49,722	62,781	6,915
– Gross Shorts:	18,605	94,598	6,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.6	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	7.6	-31.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	52.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	54.0	7.0
– Net Position:	36,033	-18,411	-17,622
– Gross Longs:	182,121	466,698	45,428
– Gross Shorts:	146,088	485,109	63,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	39.1	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	10.7	-13.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 76,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	45.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	59.3	4.2
– Net Position:	76,514	-90,090	13,576
– Gross Longs:	143,743	285,705	39,958
– Gross Shorts:	67,229	375,795	26,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.7	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-22.0	40.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	49.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-73,578	52,672	20,906
– Gross Longs:	127,091	339,118	57,005
– Gross Shorts:	200,669	286,446	36,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	96.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.0	-1.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 108,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	28.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	49.6	13.3
– Net Position:	108,858	-86,017	-22,841
– Gross Longs:	198,499	114,349	30,934
– Gross Shorts:	89,641	200,366	53,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	17.5	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	10.2	-7.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 75,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,623 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	29.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	50.4	7.7
– Net Position:	75,180	-70,335	-4,845
– Gross Longs:	149,577	97,909	20,708
– Gross Shorts:	74,397	168,244	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.3	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	4.3	-3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -27,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,167 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	47.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	35.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-27,250	26,936	314
– Gross Longs:	64,278	104,381	11,166
– Gross Shorts:	91,528	77,445	10,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	80.1	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-5.7	4.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	42.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	55.5	6.9
– Net Position:	8,332	-12,272	3,940
– Gross Longs:	23,631	39,492	10,378
– Gross Shorts:	15,299	51,764	6,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	81.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.5	-24.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	35.6	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	21.8	8.4
– Net Position:	-53,909	60,291	-6,382
– Gross Longs:	128,140	155,132	30,392
– Gross Shorts:	182,049	94,841	36,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	52.8	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.3	-30.1	-37.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

19 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.

On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -129,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	33.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-129,457	157,267	-27,810
– Gross Longs:	293,548	649,577	141,147
– Gross Shorts:	423,005	492,310	168,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.0	-4.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	51.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	44.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-52,099	65,399	-13,300
– Gross Longs:	204,179	448,590	62,405
– Gross Shorts:	256,278	383,191	75,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.4	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	13.3	-8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.7	4.0
– Net Position:	31,133	-31,971	838
– Gross Longs:	48,940	62,472	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	17,807	94,443	6,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.9	-20.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.7	7.1
– Net Position:	15,294	-82	-15,212
– Gross Longs:	186,780	455,507	47,563
– Gross Shorts:	171,486	455,589	62,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.0	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.7	4.4
– Net Position:	64,125	-76,481	12,356
– Gross Longs:	135,739	279,001	39,591
– Gross Shorts:	71,614	355,482	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	22.6	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-14.6	34.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-79,742	55,787	23,955
– Gross Longs:	128,060	340,589	59,734
– Gross Shorts:	207,802	284,802	35,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.5	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 104,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	49.6	13.4
– Net Position:	104,445	-81,860	-22,585
– Gross Longs:	194,938	114,273	30,461
– Gross Shorts:	90,493	196,133	53,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	28.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.0	7.6
– Net Position:	82,803	-77,017	-5,786
– Gross Longs:	157,623	98,669	21,044
– Gross Shorts:	74,820	175,686	26,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	9.9	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.8	-9.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	35.7	4.9
– Net Position:	-25,083	24,866	217
– Gross Longs:	63,934	100,515	10,668
– Gross Shorts:	89,017	75,649	10,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.9	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.9	10.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	41.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	57.9	7.1
– Net Position:	11,823	-16,021	4,198
– Gross Longs:	26,360	39,587	11,035
– Gross Shorts:	14,537	55,608	6,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.6	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	9.8	-21.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	37.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	20.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-65,521	71,099	-5,578
– Gross Longs:	117,724	154,773	30,534
– Gross Shorts:	183,245	83,674	36,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	62.6	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.3	-38.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

28 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (13,390 contracts) with Cotton (5,439 contracts) and Soybean Oil (157 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-29,353 contracts), Corn (-23,326 contracts), Soybean Meal (-16,876 contracts), Coffee (-4,750 contracts), Cocoa (-4,110 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,477 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,312 contracts) and with Sugar (-79 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Sugar (0 percent), Corn (18 percent) and the Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (72.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (76.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (18.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.6 percent)
Cocoa (23.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.3 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.5 percent)

Wheat & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Lean Hogs (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-20 percent), Coffee (-14 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-30.4 percent)
Sugar (-23.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.3 percent)
Coffee (-14.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-5.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (44.4 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.1 percent)
Cocoa (-8.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.1 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -130,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	46.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	36.9	11.2
– Net Position:	-130,570	143,528	-12,958
– Gross Longs:	289,305	710,288	158,516
– Gross Shorts:	419,875	566,760	171,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.9	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	19.8	21.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -47,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -79 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	53.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-47,220	51,407	-4,187
– Gross Longs:	201,571	458,220	72,992
– Gross Shorts:	248,791	406,813	77,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	21.4	-9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	42.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.7	4.3
– Net Position:	31,154	-32,779	1,625
– Gross Longs:	45,467	62,584	7,984
– Gross Shorts:	14,313	95,363	6,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.9	-11.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -29,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	49.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.9	7.4
– Net Position:	55,870	-42,557	-13,313
– Gross Longs:	190,265	417,621	48,705
– Gross Shorts:	134,395	460,178	62,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	32.6	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.5	-0.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	47.3	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	59.7	4.7
– Net Position:	63,489	-73,522	10,033
– Gross Longs:	134,185	281,052	37,716
– Gross Shorts:	70,696	354,574	27,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.9	24.1	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	5.3	2.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	51.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	43.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-76,064	51,927	24,137
– Gross Longs:	109,147	324,325	60,487
– Gross Shorts:	185,211	272,398	36,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.3	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.6	32.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	50.9	13.2
– Net Position:	106,183	-86,980	-19,203
– Gross Longs:	190,895	110,015	31,781
– Gross Shorts:	84,712	196,995	50,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	1.0	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 94,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	26.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.3	8.4
– Net Position:	94,956	-87,562	-7,394
– Gross Longs:	170,370	97,654	24,195
– Gross Shorts:	75,414	185,216	31,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.0	1.4	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.4	-35.1	-28.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	30.8	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,047	32,063	-1,016
– Gross Longs:	67,277	95,211	11,433
– Gross Shorts:	98,324	63,148	12,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.1	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.1	8.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	58.0	7.0
– Net Position:	12,905	-17,330	4,425
– Gross Longs:	27,510	33,815	10,574
– Gross Shorts:	14,605	51,145	6,149
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	76.2	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	9.9	-19.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	40.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	20.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-71,192	75,830	-4,638
– Gross Longs:	96,882	151,403	30,543
– Gross Shorts:	168,074	75,573	35,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	67.2	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-32.8	-57.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Lean Hogs & Live Cattle lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,426 contracts) with Live Cattle (11,892 contracts), Soybeans (10,449 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,403 contracts), Wheat (3,211 contracts) and Coffee (2,289 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-15,671 contracts), Corn (-14,435 contracts), Cotton (-4,430 contracts), Soybean Oil (-685 contracts) and with Cocoa (-232 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price changes for the week:

– Soybean oil: up almost 6%
– Soybeans: higher by almost 2%
– Lean hogs: rose 1.4%
– Soybean meal: up 1%
– Coffee: down almost 4%
– Cocoa: down almost 3.5%
– Sugar, live cattle, wheat, corn: down over 1%
– Cotton: down almost half a percent

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (92 percent) and Lean Hogs (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and the Wheat (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (23.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.4 percent)
Coffee (62.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.0 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.3 percent)
Cotton (15.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.2 percent)
Cocoa (29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (17.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (12 percent), Soybeans (3 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-16 percent) and Cotton (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-36.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-41.0 percent)
Sugar (-18.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybeans (2.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.7 percent)
Live Cattle (11.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-15.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.4 percent)
Cocoa (1.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.0 percent)
Wheat (16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -95,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	45.9	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	38.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-95,494	114,551	-19,057
– Gross Longs:	321,967	740,542	153,928
– Gross Shorts:	417,461	625,991	172,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	74.5	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	36.9	32.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	51.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	48.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-19,515	26,368	-6,853
– Gross Longs:	217,346	464,706	71,741
– Gross Shorts:	236,861	438,338	78,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.7	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	16.5	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	40.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	37,306	-39,846	2,540
– Gross Longs:	48,931	65,047	9,338
– Gross Shorts:	11,625	104,893	6,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	38.9	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.8	-6.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	48.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	55.2	7.5
– Net Position:	70,396	-58,118	-12,278
– Gross Longs:	190,383	415,951	52,035
– Gross Shorts:	119,987	474,069	64,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	28.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-5.2	21.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	57.9	4.6
– Net Position:	41,254	-47,032	5,778
– Gross Longs:	122,719	289,840	32,315
– Gross Shorts:	81,465	336,872	26,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	37.6	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	17.2	-24.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	49.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	45.2	5.6
– Net Position:	-48,116	26,910	21,206
– Gross Longs:	119,357	301,664	55,209
– Gross Shorts:	167,473	274,754	34,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	88.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.4	16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	27.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	51.4	13.8
– Net Position:	115,175	-94,472	-20,703
– Gross Longs:	198,415	104,793	32,758
– Gross Shorts:	83,240	199,265	53,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	7.3	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.1	-1.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	27.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	48.2	8.3
– Net Position:	80,002	-75,715	-4,287
– Gross Longs:	154,806	99,967	26,019
– Gross Shorts:	74,804	175,682	30,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	6.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.9	-35.1	-23.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	48.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	32.3	5.9
– Net Position:	-36,670	36,928	-258
– Gross Longs:	63,049	111,610	13,415
– Gross Shorts:	99,719	74,682	13,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	85.8	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	12.9	17.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	62.0	5.7
– Net Position:	19,238	-25,428	6,190
– Gross Longs:	32,877	36,613	11,881
– Gross Shorts:	13,639	62,041	5,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	67.9	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.8	20.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -93,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	38.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	17.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-93,863	93,573	290
– Gross Longs:	108,768	168,704	37,049
– Gross Shorts:	202,631	75,131	36,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	85.2	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-12.5	-38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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